NCAA 2009 Picks

[stander]

Week 1

2 Units

• Minnesota -6 (Greg Paulus, enough said.)
• LSU - 16.5 (LSU will dominate the LOS and be able to contain Locker.)

1 Unit

• Penn State -27 (No mercy for the boys from Rubber City here...)
• Stanford -16.5 (Stanford will easily overpower a weak WSU team with too many first-years on the field and the sideline alike.)

.5 Unit

• Oregon ML (+175) (Peanut Gallery POW - have to follow Uowe, Conan, and the rest of the RX oldboys on the Oregon Trail here...)

All plays locked in. Lines from Bookmaker September 5, except Stanford, which is from morning.

Wish I had jumped on UGA at +6.5 last week (especially now with the questions around Zack Robinson's status) but so it goes. There are a lot of other games that look great, but I'm one of many working on a bit of discipline in this regard.

BOL to all the great cappers at the RX this season. Hopefully, a bit of the skill and talent I've seen here for the past few years will rub off.

Cheers for a Profitable 2009,
Stander !~~~!

 

[stander]

Well, the Oregon train didn't get out of the station.

However, on the bright side, three dogs won outright tonight, so hopefully that will put PSU, LSU, Stanford, and Minny on notice to bring their A games.

 

[stander]

One play tonight:

.5 Unit

• Tulsa -14

New defensive coordinator with a new system for a very thin Tulane team (hopefully translating to a tired defense in the 2nd half) with injuries and off-the-field issues. The GH has a new QB but the system is the same and the news from the Tulsa camp has been good. The motor might have a few hiccups out of the gate but I think the GH will eventually overwhelm the Wave and get the cover at the Superdome.

!~~~!

 

[stander]

Penn State decides not to score in the second half and Minnesota plays like they did last year. Wow. I take my hat off to those who bucked the prevailing opinions and were on the Cuse.

Things can only look up from here. Come on LSU and Stanford!

~~:<<

 

[stander]

(2-4) and -4 units for week 1.

Far from an ideal start but it's a long season.

:hitting:

 

[stander]

Week 2

All lines from BM 9/7.

2 Units:
USC -6.5
Washington -20.5

1 Unit:
Virginia Tech -19
Kansas -11.5
Mississippi State +14

Will post reasoning for the above picks tomorrow, and try to contribute info to any UNC/Conn threads this week with some (hopefully) useful information.

Cheers,

Stander
!~~~!

 

[stander]

USC -6.5
Not a lot to say aside from what has already been said. USC has the better coach and better personnel. Their only possible tripping point is their true freshman QB, who has one of the best O-lines in the ncaa and a stable of great backs to carry him home. Granted, the triple-option might be able to make people look silly, but I think that OSU's inability to prepare speaks to their defensive coaching staffs' inadequacies and as for the offense - they got found out last Saturday - without their horse Beanie Wells they just can't cash the check.

Washington -20.5
Idahp is a much improved team from last year with a legitimate running game but they only managed 3 TDs against one of the worst teams to ever take the field in FBS/Div 1 play. While their won't be the kind of buzz around Seattle there was when LSU came to town, UW will be looking for a follow-up to last week's statement game with an emphatic win. Sarkisian seems like he's going to take the Huskies back to the top flight of the PAC10 and Jake Locker is the real deal holyfield and he's only going to get better. And that Polk kid is not bad either.

VaTech -19
That game with Alabama was much closer than the score indicates and I don't buy into them being banged up and demoralized for this game. They run the table from here and they're playing in another BCS bowl. Beamer will have the Hokies ready to tear the heads off the Thundering Herd. Marshall will be totally unable to contend with VT's speed on both sides of the ball. VT has a big edge at almost every skill position.

Kansas -11.5
Reesing will pick the UTEP secondary clean to the bone providing Jake Sharp doesn't run over them first. Kansas has the size and speed advantage on both sides of the ball and this spread should have been 3TDs IMO.

Mississippi State +14
This game has been close for the last 2 years and the MSU D looked good (though it was against Jackson State). This is really a hunch play. Looks like the prevailing opinions I've read are on Auburn, but we'll see what happens.

Here's to this week being better than last week.

 

[stander]

Another week below .500. A few more weeks like this and it looks like we have a fade thread. We'll see.

Week 1: (2-4) -4 units
Week 2: (2-3) -3 units

Aggregate: (4-7) -7 units

 

[stander]

Thursday Night:

Georgia Tech +5.5 (BM - this morning)

The line is down to 4/4.5 Miami most places because of injuries and rumors of swine flu. For one, I hope the rumors are true. Miami is coming off an emotional win at Florida State and Georgia Tech are coming off an almost blown lead to a subpar Clemson team. I think an emotional win spells let down and an almost-blown lead spells lesson learned and mistake will not be repeated.

As for GT having the Canes number for the last three years, perhaps many think the boys from the U are due. I'm not one of them obviously.

Not much of a write-up here but I'm the only one who reads this thing anyway....

 

[stander]

Week 3 Saturday
(lines from BM)

1 Unit
Buffalo +4.5
Kentucky -13.5
Georgia +2.5
Kansas -23.5

 

[stander]

One more 1 unit play:

West Virginia + 7.5 (BM)

 

[stander]

Week 1: (2-4) -4 units
Week 2: (2-3) -3 units
Week 3: (3-3) even units

Aggregate: (7-10) -7 units

 

[stander]

Week 4 Saturday

1 Unit
Florida State -14
bought down from -14.5 this AM at BM

 

[stander]

Week 4 Saturday

1 Unit
Florida State -14
bought down from -14.5 this AM at BM

South Carolina +3.5
Ohio State -14
Buffalo +2.5
New Mexico/New Mexico State over 44

 

[stander]

Week 5 Saturday
Tulsa -14.5
UGA/LSU under 52.5
Colorado State +4
Penn State -7
UNC/UVa under 42.5

 

[stander]

Typo: col st -4

 

[stander]

Aggregate:

Week 1: (2-4) -4 units
Week 2: (2-3) -3 units
Week 3: (3-3) even units
Week 4: (2-3) -1 unit
Week 5: (4-1) +3 units

Year: -5 units

 

[stander]

Week 6:
Nebraska -2.5
Oklhoma -23.5

 

[stander]

Week 6 Saturday:

Utah State -10.5
Strength of competition edge bigtime for USU and they hold a big stat lead in all categories. I don't see them winning by less than 2 TDs.

Still thinking about a few other plays:
* Iowa (hoping the public will be on Michigan and push it to -7, but I really doubt this will happen)
* Arkansas (again, hoping the public will push the line -- this time to +3)
* Kansas -19 ( we all know what happened last year, but certainly the Jayhawks remember as well...)

 

[stander]

Week 6 Saturday:
Oklahoma -23.5
Utah St -10.5
Kansas -19

Going to lay off the Arkansas game. It's down to +1. No way to tell if it's because of money or public bets. But if/when the public is on a dog, it's trouble....

Might play Iowa tonight depending on what happens this afternoon. Still at -8....