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Striving towards handicapping perfection...
Joined
Oct 16, 2004
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Preseason: Games bet: 22-18-1 (+2.75 Units), Overall Preseason record: 65-44-2
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Futures play: Detroit +525 to win championship (1.5 units)
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Main Card YTD: 25-12-1 (+11.55 units)
Sides: 15-10-1 (+3.15 units), Totals: 10-2 (+8.40 units)

Added Plays YTD: 11-12 (+0.25 units)
Sides: 6-9 (-1.10 units), Totals: 5-3 (+1.35 units)

Other plays YTD: 9-16 (-2.65 units)
2nd-Halves: 6-2 (+3.95 units)-----1st-Halves: 1-2 (-0.10 units)-----1st-Quarters: 0-4 (-2.85 units)
2nd-Quarters: 0-1-1 (-0.55 units)-----3rd-Quarters: 0-1 (-0.60 units)----- 4th-Quarters 0-0 (0.00 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-0.15 units)-----Teasers: 1-3-1 (-2.50 units)-----R-Robins: 1-1 (+0.70 units)


Leans YTD: 29-34-2, (Sides: 17-21, Totals: 12-13-2)
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Note: My bet range generally goes from 0.5 to 5 units...I don't go above 3 units very often…Even though I use Pinnacle a lot, for grading purposes here, I will employ a -110 line for all straight plays…
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Added plays finally in the Positive $$, hope to build that category up as the year goes on...2 plays for the Main Card tonight, like them, not sure which is stronger, probably the total, but I figure, at worst, I juice out tonight...

Sacramento/New Orleans Under 187.5 (1.5 units)

Jamaal Magloire is OUT now for 10-to-12 weeks...Baron Davis still OUT...Hornets' totals have been plummeting since Magloire went OUT...5 straight Unders (in regulation), the last 2 were easy unders...For SAC, Peja Stojakovic hurt his hand last night bad enough to get x-rays after the game...They were negative...Bobby Jackson hurt his hand and had x-rays at halftime...Also negative...Both finished the game...According to the Sacramento Bee, Peja said his hand is "really sore" and that was last night...It may be more sore when he wakes up today...I like it Under regardless if Peja plays or not, but if he doesn't play, I LOVE the Under, and if it's announced that he isn't playing, watch that total go off the board and be dropped about 4 points...

Orlando Magic -5.5 (1.5 units)

This is the 4th game in 5 nights for Toronto, usually a great situational trend for the Road team...But it hasn't covered several in a row this year after a HOT start...So we'll throw that trend out the window and go back to basic NBA 101 Handicapping principles:

When a team comes off a big upset win in their previous game (let-down team) and they are playing a good team that just lost by double-digits their last time out (bounce-back team), always fade the let-down team coming off the upset win and take the bounce-back team...

When all else fails, this is as basic an NBA trend as it gets...And over time, it makes you money...ORL lost by 16 two days ago at Home, TOR upset MIA last night, they are Bk-to-Bk, ORL is rested, and throw in the fact that this Vince Carter ordeal is eventually going to really wear on this TOR team (Vinsanity had 5 points last night), this just looks like a GOOD spot for ORL...

Other games look interesting, I may look for half-time lines tonight...

Good Luck...brewers7

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Please note: [color=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/color]...
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Main Card:
Yesterday: 1-0 (-1.10 units)
Last 3 days: 2-1 (+0.90 units)
Last 7 days: 3-4 (-1.50 units)

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Words of advice: Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Stay humble…Act professional…
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Banned
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
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Good Luck Brewers..I like your writeups...Did you use to be known under a different handle?
 

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
Joined
Oct 16, 2004
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Nope...This is the only handle I've ever had...Started posting late last January for the first time as I never knew forums like this existed...I post in 4 different forums...
 

NBA and Miami Heat Guru
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
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Brewers,
does the second half of toronto/orlando fit your system for betting second halves?

SB
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
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surprised

I have been away for a while - but wow, i'm now a jr. with 22 posts! LOL!!! I used to have well over 1000 ! LOL
 
Last edited:

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
Joined
Oct 16, 2004
Messages
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spreadbeater:

Was on the phone with a friend and missed your post and that play...It does fit the formula, which means take the Under for the 2H...The "Under" part of that formula worries me sometimes but we'll see...

I may be glad I missed that play and have my friend to thank if it goes Over...

But you are correct, 228 - 203 = 25, which is greater than 20 = play the Under...

We'll see how it plays out...
 

Striving towards handicapping perfection...
Joined
Oct 16, 2004
Messages
2,726
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adding...

I may regret this, but I am taking:

LA Lakers -6, 2H (1/2 unit)

Just have to win this game, even though i picked CHI to cover this game...Key tip here: LAL just 2-4 from the FT line in the 1H...You KNOW they will drive to the hole in the 2H to try and win this thing...
 

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