NBA Systems 2014/15

[rolltide]

got my nba stuff cleaned up today. not sure i'll post these everyday in the fall but will see what I can do

for those interested in scheduling situations the Rockets should have a huge NOV. They get 5 home games this month where opponent is playing the 2nd of b2b games ... Rockets finished last year with 11 straight wins in this situation and are 22-4 SU, 17-7-2 ATS L26

anyway, here's what they spit out for Sat night:

Rockets -7 - nice spot over last 4 years with high total in a non-conf game which the west has dominated as long as they aren't big favs. ATS is 54-22-3 for the western team L4 years. LY was 25-10 ATS

GS/LAL under 210 - team in 4/5 spot vs rested opponent very early in season are 12-23 o/u including 6-17 o/u before game 17. Warriors also 2-7 o/u L9 hosting a tired team

OKC/DEN over 193.5 - rare to see western conference games (not involving Memphis) with totals of 195 or less but when it happens the over is usually a good play especially when home team is off b2b unders, 36-11 o/u

Bulls -2.5 - a couple things for chicago. Grizz won in this spot last night as an away fav off a non-cover vs home dog off a cover, non-conf game now 49-18-1 ATS L2+ seasons with 42 overs. Home dogs also 9-26 ATS in non-division games where opponent is here off a home fav loss since 2008 season.

 

[savage55]

Hey Roll what was that system we played last year when East coast team visiting west coast team and total was 205 or higher play the over.. Wasnt it something like that? I know I made a ton of money tailing it

 

[RussellPeters]

Good luck RT

 

[rolltide]

Hey Roll what was that system we played last year when East coast team visiting west coast team and total was 205 or higher play the over.. Wasnt it something like that? I know I made a ton of money tailing it

you're thinking of one from a couple years ago to play over western teams starting eastern road trip. don't have that on my sheet anymore. i'll have to run the numbers

there's two east/west still going both for western covers...

OPPOSE eastern dogs, high total, vs west
conference = Eastern and not C and total >= 209 and date > 20101125 and D and line<10.5

OPPOSE eastern home dogs, high total
conference = Eastern and not C and total > 206 and date > 20101125 and HD

 

[rolltide]

ok, so spent the last 3.5 hours cleaning up nba for good. i won't be doing those daily but a couple guys have volunteered to run them and post here each day. thanks guys!

too bad as we missed a couple great ones the last couple of days including my favorite play on DD dogs. i caught it midway through 1st quarter last night on Philly +11.5 and was able to bet live end of first quarter and posted it on twitter. anyway, glad a couple guys will step up and run these as i don't have enough time to do ncaab, ncaaf, nfl, and nhl basically every day...plus my real bets which are soccer. anyway, tue night:

UNDER two good 3-point shooting teams without much rest, low turnovers both O and D. 69-142-4 o/u (MIA/HOU, CHI/ORL)

OVER Home team off home fav loss vs opponent off shootout away. 58-26-1 o/u (POR/CLE)

OPPOSE home team avenging same-season road blowout loss. 58-62-3 (vs LAL)

 

[rolltide]

OPPOSE home team avenging same-season road blowout loss. 58-62-3 (vs LAL)

should read 28-62-3 ATS

 

[indiana]

R/T...........thank you.........good luck tonight............indy

 

[rolltide]

CHI & LAC - oppose home team after a dog win where they were out-rebounded 33-68-4 ATS and both fit 19-45-1. GS also fits 7-35-2 ATS subset and 3-24-0 subset of the subset

CHI & CLE - play on away favs after non cover vs home dog off a cover. 136-54 SU, 121-65-4 ATS, 105-81-4 o/u. if blown out last game then 32-10-1 (on CLE) ... if non-conf, 49-19-1 (on CLE)

MIA/NO over, CLE/UTA over - OVER non conference after DD fav loss and total 201.5 or less (watch total) 107-49-4 o/u

MIA/NO over, CLE/UTA over same as above but more recent...both fit with total up to 217. 58-26-1 o/u

SA/ATL - play OVER if home team lost huge HT lead last game. 75-35-5 o/u incl 13-0-1 o/u L14

MIA - Hornets 18-43-1 L62 without rest and 2-20 SU (3-19 ATS) playing in 4/5 situation

 

[Biz]

Clev/Utah has a referee that hits lots of overs. 3-0 this year, last year 47-19, 42-29 2 yrs ago.

 

[rolltide]

one more for MIA

in 4/5 vs 4/5 play the team that was just home if opponent was just away. 24-9 ATS

only two situations for 2014/15 season...next one in March

on Saturday, the Wizards will be in similar situation as Miami. They'll face Indy, both in 4/5, and indy home after away. only diff is that wiz are on a road trip. those home teams (indy) are 34-55-2 ATS. won't be the tightener that MIA qualifies for tonight but should still be a nice situation if your capping agrees....

 

[Biz]

Dallas -2.5: Play ON Road Fav Off Non-Cover VS Home Off Cover. Since 2012: 122-66-4 (64.9%)

 

[tripleh]

Away fav before 4/5 vs rested opponent (Play on TWolves Under and Grizzlies Under)

SU:116-57 (4.54, 67.1%)ATS:100-72-1 (-0.05, 58.1%) avg line: -4.6O/U:65-103-5 (-2.86, 38.7%) avg total: 199.2

Nov 07, 2014

recap

Fri

2014

Timberwolves

Magic

away

1&1

-4.0

203.5

Nov 07, 2014

recap

Fri

2014

Grizzlies

Thunder

away

1&2

-7.0

182.0

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[rolltide]

CHF and p:A and -3 <= p:line <= 3 and points > 109 ... and op:HF and op:ats margin < 0
SU: 23-2 (13.96, 92.0%) ATS: 22-3-0 (7.38, 88.0%) avg line: -6.6 O/U: 12-13-0 (-0.52, 48.0%) avg total: 197.8 <tbody> </tbody>
FG Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 39.00 48.4 21.44 77.6 6.16 37.8 5.68 12.92 44.92 20.56 24.68 13.88 25.6 24.6 27.2 27.5 105.6 Opp 34.92 43.2 16.40 73.5 5.40 34.8 4.44 10.64 38.04 23.32 19.04 15.72 25.8 21.2 21.8 22.4 91.6 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Season Team Opp Site Final Rest Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Nov 07, 2014 recap Fri 2014 Raptors Wizards home 1&1 -2.5 195.5 <caption> </caption> <thead> </thead> <tbody> </tbody>

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[tripleh]

SATURDAY GAME (Play on LAC)
OPPOSE away dogs after scoring 102+ as a dog or small fav at home in a blowout win and not playing a horrible team
SU:16-77 (-8.80, 17.2%)
ATS:27-63-3 (-3.09, 30.0%) avg line: 5.7
O/U:52-39-2 (1.54, 57.1%) avg total: 198.4

 

[Biz]

Dallas -2.5: Play ON Road Fav Off Non-Cover VS Home Off Cover. Since 2012: 122-66-4 (64.9%)

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AF and p:ats margin<0 and op:ats margin>0 and season>=2012

SU: 137-55 (5.45, 71.4%) ATS: 122-66-4 (1.35, 64.9%) avg line: -4.1 O/U: 105-83-4 (1.56, 55.9%) avg total: 197.5 <tbody> </tbody> FG Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.97 47.0 18.28 76.9 8.02 38.1 5.18 10.23 42.62 20.44 22.43 13.67 25.9 25.9 25.2 24.7 102.2 Opp 36.06 44.0 17.34 75.6 7.32 35.8 4.47 10.83 40.99 20.41 20.94 13.72 23.8 24.4 24.0 24.0 96.8 <tbody> </tbody> Date Link Day Season Team Opp Site Final Rest Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr OUr ot Nov 07, 2014 recap Fri 2014 Mavericks Jazz away 0&1 -2.5 206.5 <tbody> </tbody> <tbody> </tbody>

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[Biz]

In case anybody is wondering, Tide asked a couple of us to help him out posting his systems. All systems posted come from Tide.

 

[savage55]

In case anybody is wondering, Tide asked a couple of us to help him out posting his systems. All systems posted come from Tide.

Cool thanks for helping him out.. Guy has so much good info for all sports but I dont know how he does it all! Keep up the great work and systems. Its all very valuable when used correctly

 

[RDTrains]

RT, if you have some time I would like to see the history of this Statfox trend for tonight. Thanks.

Play Against - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in November games.
(24-1 since 1996.) (96%, +22.9 units. Rating = 5*)

 

[rolltide]

RT, if you have some time I would like to see the history of this Statfox trend for tonight. Thanks.

Play Against - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in November games.
(24-1 since 1996.) (96%, +22.9 units. Rating = 5*)

i can't pull that based on 3.5-9.5 but comes close with 5-9.5

month = 11 and HD and p:margin <= 3 and p:W and 5 <= line <= 9.5

SU:	1-21 (-12.73, 4.5%)
ATS:	2-20-0 (-6.61, 9.1%)	avg line: 6.1
O/U:	8-14-0 (-5.25, 36.4%)	avg total: 195.2

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really don't need that parameter to make this an interesting angle though: here is any home dog off a close win in november:

month = 11 and HD and p:margin <= 3 and p:W and season >= 2003
SU: 7-40 (-9.19, 14.9%) ATS: 8-39-0 (-5.27, 17.0%) avg line: 3.9 O/U: 25-21-1 (0.07, 54.3%) avg total: 194.9 <tbody> </tbody>
FG Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 35.09 42.7 17.68 74.1 5.02 32.1 5.19 11.83 41.04 21.85 19.68 14.32 23.8 22.3 22.4 24.1 92.9 Opp 37.77 47.5 19.17 76.7 7.36 40.0 4.94 10.13 42.66 21.62 23.72 14.04 27.3 25.3 25.8 23.6 102.1 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Season Team Opp Site Final Rest Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Nov 07, 2014 recap Fri 2014 Magic Timberwolves home 1&1 4.0 203.5 Nov 07, 2014 recap Fri 2014 Jazz Mavericks home 1&0 2.5 205.0 <caption> </caption> <thead> </thead> <tbody> </tbody>

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[Biz]

CHF and p:A and -3 <= p:line <= 3 and points > 109 ... and op:HF and op:ats margin < 0
SU: 23-2 (13.96, 92.0%) ATS: 22-3-0 (7.38, 88.0%) avg line: -6.6 O/U: 12-13-0 (-0.52, 48.0%) avg total: 197.8 <tbody> </tbody>
FG Pct FT Pct 3s Pct BLKS O-RBND RBND Fouls AST TOvers Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 39.00 48.4 21.44 77.6 6.16 37.8 5.68 12.92 44.92 20.56 24.68 13.88 25.6 24.6 27.2 27.5 105.6 Opp 34.92 43.2 16.40 73.5 5.40 34.8 4.44 10.64 38.04 23.32 19.04 15.72 25.8 21.2 21.8 22.4 91.6 <tbody> </tbody>
Date Link Day Season Team Opp Site Final Rest Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Nov 07, 2014 recap Fri 2014 Raptors Wizards home 1&1 -2.5 195.5 <tbody> </tbody>

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Trying to figure this one out:

Conf Home Fav, Previous on Road and scored 110+ last game, Opponent didn't cover last game as Home Fav

Confused on spread filters. Is today -3 or less? Previous game +3 or less??