NBA System Picks - Every Game Every Day - 35-16 Record on RXForum

[JDix]

NBA Picks Feb 10

Game = Bolded
Side pick = Underlined
Total pick = Italicized

DET +1.5 @ CHA -1.5 (TOTAL 192)
CHA -1.5
Over 192

BKN +12 @ MEM -12 (TOTAL 190) - (BKN ROAD B2B)
MEM -12
Over 190

SAC +10 @ CHI -10 (TOTAL 197)
SAC +10
Over 197

HOU +1.5 @ PHX -1.5 (Total 216)
HOU +1.5
Over 216


DEN +1.5 @ LAL -1.5 (TOTAL 202) - (DEN ROAD B2B)
LAL -1.5
Under 202

 

[abc09]

JDix, very nice record!

 

[abc09]

Do you have any top play or you bet them all the same amount? Thanks

 

[JDix]

Do you have any top play or you bet them all the same amount? Thanks

Typically I bet them all as equal units. 5% of entire portfolio each play. I.E. on a $100 portfolio $5 on each play. Units are adjusted daily... So if you are +4 units on Wednesday you'd be up to $120 changing your new units to $6. I hope I am not insulting you by divulging these details as I realize that there is a large possibility you already know them. Sometimes the system will appear more confident in certain games but I haven't found any real correlation between the numbers and actual outcomes with regards to the system liking certain plays more.

Gun to my head however, if I had to pick plays I like a lot for today they would be:

Houston (which is now at a +2.5)
Charlotte -1.5
LAL (which is now at a pick)

The rationale behind the LAL pick is that Denver is on the tail end of a B2B on the road. Teams typically win less than 33% of their games that are the second part of a B2B and on the road. Combine that with Denver losing 13 of their last 15 I like the Lakers to cover here a lot.

 

[abc09]

Thanks JDix. I don't see you have total play on the top 3. Is the winning percentage on side higher than total?

 

[JDix]

Thanks JDix. I don't see you have total play on the top 3. Is the winning percentage on side higher than total?

Totals in Basketball seem to be sporadic to say the least.

My favorite total tonight is DEN @ LAL Under 202

The rationale for this play would be that the Lakers type of play slows down the pace of the game heavily. Denver seems to play at pace or below whatever their opposition does. I also feel like after putting up so many points yesterday and losing Denver will have a hard game coming into LA and lighting it up. I could be wrong, this could be a frustration spot for Denver and they could annihilate the Lakers making me lose the side & the total on this game but we'll have to see I guess.

 

[JDix]

DET +1.5 @ CHA -1.5 (TOTAL 192)
CHA -1.5
Over 192

Lose both because Charlotte can't shoot worth of garbage from the paint.

 

[JDix]

0-6 so far. -.-

 

[JDix]

2-6.

Houston game went over and Houston covered.

 

[abc09]

Jdix, All good cappers has some bad days. But the goal is you win money at the end. Thanks a lot for your respond today. I was thinking to put a unit on each but i did not. GL tomorrow.

 

[JDix]

Jdix, All good cappers has some bad days. But the goal is you win money at the end. Thanks a lot for your respond today. I was thinking to put a unit on each but i did not. GL tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be better.

The last time I had a bad day I went on a 10-2 run. Guaranteed +2 units minimum tomorrow.

 

[JDix]

Embarrassment of a night tonight. 2-7-1

 

[Biz]

The rationale behind the LAL pick is that Denver is on the tail end of a B2B on the road. Teams typically win less than 33% of their games that are the second part of a B2B and on the road. Combine that with Denver losing 13 of their last 15 I like the Lakers to cover here a lot.

The data doesn't support this assumption.

Since 2004/05 teams in this situation (Playing a road BTB) are 1130-1062 (51.6%). This year they are 75-66 (53.2%). Teams off a bad loss (12+) are 304-249 (54.9%) and have won the last 7 times in this situation. 51-30 over the past 2 seasons.

Narrowing that even more:
- Road Teams on a BTB off a Blowout (12+) Road Loss, when playing a poor team (< 33.3%), are 74-36 since 2004/05.

Road teams on the 2nd game of a BTB may seem like a poor bet, but they have actually shown a small profit playing them blindly.