NBA -- Saturday, December 18...

[brewers7]

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Preseason: Games bet: 22-18-1 (+2.75 Units), Overall Preseason record: 65-44-2
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Futures play: Detroit +525 to win championship (1.5 units)
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Main Card YTD: 38-18-1 (+21.30 units)
Sides: 24-15-1 (+9.00 units), Totals: 13-3 (+12.30 units)

Added Plays YTD: 20-19 (-0.20 units)
Sides: 8-12-1 (-3.35 units), Totals: 12-7 (+3.15 units)

Other plays YTD: 13-18 (-1.45 units)
2nd-Halves: 6-3 (+3.40 units)-----1st-Halves: 2-2 (+0.40 units)-----1st-Quarters: 2-4 (-1.35 units)
2nd-Quarters: 0-2-1 (-1.10 units)-----3rd-Quarters: 0-1 (-0.60 units)----- 4th-Quarters 0-0 (0.00 units)
Parlays: 0-2 (-0.15 units)-----Teasers: 1-3-1 (-2.50 units)-----R-Robins: 2-1 (+1.00 units)

Leans YTD: 47-53-2, (Sides: 26-31, Totals: 21-22-2)
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Note: My bet range generally goes from 0.5 to 5 units...I don't go above 3 units very often…Even though I use Pinnacle a lot, for grading purposes here, I will employ a -110 line for all straight plays…
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Good night last night, winning $$$ in all 3 categories, winning 4 of 5 bets placed...There aren't any Sides that jump out at me, but there is a Total that does...But for the Main Card, we'll play one side small, since I've hit 6-of-7 #1 totals and may be due for a loss, and I've been a little chilly on the sides, looking to turn that tide...In all honesty, my #1 side tonight doesn't feel much stronger than any in my top 5 sides...

Philadelpha 76ers +5.5 (1 unit)

The Sixers have played well in MILW, their worst game in the last 4 trips there was a 5-point loss, winning 2 of the 4 games...The Sixers are 2-2 ATS in the back-end of Bk-to-Bks, however, if the first game was a loss, they are 2-1 ATS, and the one game they didn't cover they won by 8 vs NJ on Nov 10...MILW has lost 3 in a row, the first of those 3 to Philly 6 days ago, so we have a revenge spot, however the trend that will over-ride the revenge spot for me is the fact that MILW is 1-4 ATS when they have rest, playing a team that is playing for the 2nd night in a row...Philly coming off an extremely difficult loss to NY last night, but this group is resilient...

The total I like tonight is Was/Phoe Over 217 and this will be an Added Play for 1 unit...

LEANS: Hou, Cle, Was, Atl, Hou ov, Port un...

Good Luck...brewers7

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ALL PICKS:
Sides: 1) Phi, 2) Hou, 3) Cle, 4) Was, 5) Atl, 6) GS, 7) Chi, 8) Port, 9) Orl
Totals: 1) Was ov, 2) Hou ov, 3) Port un, 4) Cle ov, 5) Orl ov, 6) Phi ov, 7) Atl un, 8) GS ov, 9) Chi ov
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Please note: [color=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above[/color]...
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Main Card:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+1.50 units)
Last 3 days: 3-1 (+2.30 units)
Last 7 days: 5-3 (+3.10 units)
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Words of advice: Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Stay humble…Act professional…
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[brewers7]

adding...

Added Play:

Washington/Phoenix Over 217 (1 unit)

Do these teams have anything left in their respective gas tanks after 2 big wins last night?...I hope so...We all know Phoenix loves to run-and-gun, and I have to believe that a young team with plenty of shooters like the Wiz are going to want to show Phoenix they can run and gun and stay with them...The numbers show WASH at 2-2-1 (O/U/P) and Phoe at 4 Overs in 6 games when these teams are on the back-end of Bk-to-bks...But I think the potential is here for a game that hits at about 230-to-235...

GL...

 

[KillerInstinct]

what do you consider the difference between the "main card" and "added plays" seeing as how both plays are for 1 unit? GL

 

[brewers7]

adding...

The "Main Card" is what I consider my best play(s) of the night...

Some nights, I will add plays for the same unit amount as a Main Card play, because I feel the value is pretty much equal, but I am trying to stay away from having too many plays on my Main Card...

Tonight was one of those nights where I found that there wasn't much difference in value between any of my top 5 sides and top 4 totals...All 9 plays were fairly equal value, in my estimation, but I'm not putting all 9 plays in my Main Card, nor am I betting all 9, I force myself to try and choose just a few almost every night...I actually did make 6 bets this past Monday and of course, went 2-4...Maybe I should've just bet all 9 tonight for a unit apiece, only time will tell in the end...

Hope this helps...

Adding:

Washington Wizards +10.5 (1/2 unit)

WASH is 7-2 ATS on the Road and PHOE is just 5-7 ATS at Home thanks to over-inflated numbers that they have to cover night-in and night-out...Both teams starters logged a lot of minutes last night, and since I believe the Wizards' bench is stonger than the Suns' bench, I think the Wiz can stay under the number...

GL...

 

[Doug]

Brewers7: I always like your positions. You are good , as evidenced by your record and contest standings, plus the good write-ups. I don't like being opposite you. I bet early, you post late. I add you late, if I had no bet, sometimes at half. I may add if you match my picks. If you're against something I bet early, and my side is winning at half, I sometimes sell to your side. You're good to have around !

I believe you said you are ( were ?) a sports-writer ? Whatever, you are a bonus here. I don't want you beating me in contests, but a small price to pay for your viewpoint.

I nominate you for " Best New NBA capper of 2004 award ! " Glad you're here !


Merry Christmas,



Doug

 

[brewers7]

Wow...I am really flattered by that because I have only been here a short time at the RX...I also am starting to "check" my picks against a few others in here the past week as I see who are emerging as good handicappers and you are one of them...I NEVER look at anyone's picks on any site until I analyze the games myself, one by one, break them down and rank them...

I post at 5 sites and to be honest, I come here FIRST to see who a few people have after I am done with my selections...It's only happened a once or twice so far, but I have changed where a few of my games were ranked based on what some people have in here...And starting on Sunday in fact, I may be making side bets if some of my middle-ranked or lower-ranked games match up with a few people in here...Bets I won't post, but if guys like you, the Admiral (who doesn't post, but posts his picks usually late in the contest) and a few others are all on a play that I agree with, I'm going to start laying some money down on those games without actually bothering to post them for my record-keeping...

The best cappers are on this site, I have no doubt about that, as I have about a 500-unit lead in the covers NBA contest, and I even put one of my games in wrong one night last week to cost me 110 units (that contest is done on wagerline)...

I see a lot of great handicappers on this site, and even more importantly, they truly seem to be classy guys to me...You can tell by their writing style that they are class acts...I won't try and mention everyone because I know I'll miss someone, but Ace-Ace, OldManTed, Occam's Razor, Kapusta and a few others come immediately to mind...Class Acts...I am really glad I found this site...I am not here to compete against others, I am here to share information with people and hopefully my experience, knowledge and handicapping style in the NBA can help a few people in the long run in here...

Yes, I was a Sports Writer for a while...But now I do this, and I have been feverishly building databases for the NBA, NFL, and NCAA football and basketball...I am gathering tons of data, and it's starting to come together nicely, and I feel that once I am armed with this NBA database (once I have it where I want it), that the info will take me to another level and then I can really share even more info with this forum...

Ok, I am writing again, enough, but I am extremely flattered by the kind words, Doug, and will continue to do my best to contribute to this wonderful forum...

Thank you and good luck to everyone this holiday season...

brewers7 (Steve)

 

[Doug]

Brewers : I'd dismiss your record if it was picks only. The write-ups mean more, to me ! I like anybody backing selections with words. You tell why , you pick a game. You are better than I am, I'm over-performing.

I don't give write-ups. I just bet.