NBA Reverse Line Movement

[letsgohoosiers]

BET on any team that has less than 50% of the public on them yet has seen the line move in their favor (17-7 71% since February 1st)

<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="617" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="480"><col style="width: 22pt;" width="29"> <col style="width: 144pt;" width="192"> <col style="width: 32pt;" width="42"> <col style="width: 24pt;" width="32"> <col style="width: 30pt;" span="2" width="40"> <col style="width: 25pt;" width="33"> <col style="width: 36pt;" width="48"> <col style="width: 37pt;" width="49"> <col style="width: 52pt;" width="69"> <col style="width: 48pt;" span="2" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt; width: 22pt;" width="29" align="right" height="20">129</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 144pt;" width="192">512 Phoenix Suns</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 32pt;" width="42"> </td> <td class="xl66" style="width: 24pt;" width="32" align="right">40%</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 30pt;" width="40" align="right">-13</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 30pt;" width="40" align="right">-15.5</td> <td style="width: 25pt;" width="33" align="right">2.5</td> <td style="width: 36pt;" width="48" align="right">32.5</td> <td class="xl68" style="width: 37pt;" width="49" align="right">2-Feb</td> <td style="width: 52pt;" width="69" align="right">100</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">W</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">104</td> <td class="xl65">712 Denver Nuggets</td> <td class="xl65"> </td> <td class="xl66" align="right">41%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-4</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-12</td> <td align="right">8</td> <td align="right">-4</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">3-Feb</td> <td align="right">-110</td> <td>L</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">86</td> <td class="xl65">516 Minnesota Timberwolves</td> <td class="xl65"> </td> <td class="xl66" align="right">49%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-2</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td align="right">-10</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">4-Feb</td> <td align="right">-110</td> <td>L</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">109</td> <td class="xl65">704 Boston Celtics</td> <td class="xl65"> </td> <td class="xl66" align="right">43%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-5.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-7</td> <td align="right">1.5</td> <td align="right">-8</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">5-Feb</td> <td align="right">-110</td> <td>L</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">115</td> <td class="xl65">706 Utah Jazz</td> <td class="xl65"> </td> <td class="xl66" align="right">47%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-3</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-3.5</td> <td align="right">0.5</td> <td align="right">24.5</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">5-Feb</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">101</td> <td class="xl65">808 Orlando Magic</td> <td class="xl65"> </td> <td class="xl66" align="right">45%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-11.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-13</td> <td align="right">1.5</td> <td align="right">4</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">8-Feb</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">91</td> <td class="xl65">804 Cleveland Cavaliers</td> <td class="xl65"> </td> <td class="xl66" align="right">34%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-4</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-5</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td align="right">-15</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">8-Feb</td> <td align="right">-110</td> <td>L</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">85</td> <td class="xl65">506 Memphis Grizzlies</td> <td class="xl65"> </td> <td class="xl66" align="right">47%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-1.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-3.5</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td align="right">1.5</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">9-Feb</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">108</td> <td class="xl65">502 Philadelphia 76ers</td> <td class="xl65"> </td> <td class="xl66" align="right">43%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-3</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-3.5</td> <td align="right">0.5</td> <td align="right">13.5</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">9-Feb</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">113</td> <td class="xl67">520 Utah Jazz</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">11830</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">17%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">2.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-1</td> <td align="right">3.5</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">11-Feb</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">128</td> <td class="xl67">524 Los Angeles Clippers</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">9071</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">35%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-3</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-5.5</td> <td align="right">2.5</td> <td align="right">-1.5</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">11-Feb</td> <td align="right">-110</td> <td>L</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">122</td> <td class="xl67">514 Milwaukee Bucks</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">3382</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">47%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-3.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-5</td> <td align="right">1.5</td> <td align="right">7</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">11-Feb</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">106</td> <td class="xl67">522 Portland Trail Blazers</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">9032</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">49%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-11.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-12</td> <td align="right">0.5</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">11-Feb</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">113</td> <td class="xl65">507 Chicago Bulls</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">4794</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">47%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-2</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td align="right">7</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">18-Feb</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>AWAY</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">79</td> <td class="xl65">702 Detroit Pistons</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">11856</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">22%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-1</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td align="right">-5</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">19-Feb</td> <td align="right">-110</td> <td>L</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">93</td> <td class="xl65">864 Houston Rockets</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">10998</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">34%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-3.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-4</td> <td align="right">0.5</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">20-Feb</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">111</td> <td class="xl65">804 Toronto Raptors</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">7698</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">37%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-3</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-3.5</td> <td align="right">0.5</td> <td align="right">7.5</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">22-Feb</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">132</td> <td class="xl65">704 Los Angeles Lakers</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">15856</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">47%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-9</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-11</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td align="right">15</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">26-Feb</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">92</td> <td class="xl65">506 Memphis Grizzlies</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">7778</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">46%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-4</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-7</td> <td align="right">3</td> <td align="right">-14</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">28-Feb</td> <td align="right">-110</td> <td>L</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">105</td> <td class="xl65">508 Chicago Bulls</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">15038</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">39%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">1</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-1</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td align="right">2</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">28-Feb</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">107</td> <td class="xl65">712 Houston Rockets</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">11566</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">49%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-8.5</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-9</td> <td align="right">0.5</td> <td align="right">1</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">3-Mar</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">111</td> <td class="xl65">702 Orlando Magic</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">10378</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">41%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-7</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-7.5</td> <td align="right">0.5</td> <td align="right">4.5</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">3-Mar</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">107</td> <td class="xl65">514 Dallas Mavericks</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">6392</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">45%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-1</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-3.5</td> <td align="right">2.5</td> <td align="right">1.5</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">4-Mar</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt;" align="right" height="20">110</td> <td class="xl65">512 Chicago Bulls</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">7857</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">30%</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-7</td> <td class="xl65" align="right">-7.5</td> <td align="right">0.5</td> <td align="right">14.5</td> <td class="xl68" align="right">4-Mar</td> <td align="right">100</td> <td>W</td> <td>HOME</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
A bit surprising, I have been fading a version of RLM in NCAAB and doing so at a 63% rate all season. Then when I follow RLM in NBA, it hits 71%!

I wonder if this ties in with this system at all, I know last night it was on Orlando, Dallas, and Chicago as well, went 3-0.

 

[Snookslayer]

BET on any team that has less than 50% of the public on them yet has seen the line move in their favor (17-7 71% since February 1st)

"Bet on any team..." or "Bet on any favorite..."

:think2:

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Favorite. Thanks.

 

[White_Tiger]

in Feb is true but Nov and Dec. then it's not correct, better track record of 2-3 years to show a real winner or not.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Care to share the data for earlier? All I have is back to February 1st.

 

[Snookslayer]

I only see two games tonight where the public is betting the dog by more than 50%:

Golden State +9 vs Detroit and Denver +9 vs Utah

But I don't think there's been any line movement in either of those games.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

The Pistons spread looks great. You'd think "no way should the streaky pistons be favored by 9 over anyone, especially a Golden State team that puts up a lot of points". Looks like a trap to me.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

I'm playing Miami -1, like the trend in that one. Still no plays for this system.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Pistons -10

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Looking like Milwaukee -8 tonight. I'm scared of the line movement though. It's 7-9-1 since Feb 1 when the line moves 2.5 points in a team's way. RLM is 4-5-1.

 

[Snookslayer]

Don't know if anyone is still following this, but there might be a qualifier tonight with the majority of the public on Utah +2 over Atlanta. The line opened at Atlanta -1.

 

[Brubaker]

Public is all over the Dogs in the following contests........

Denver -13-
Golden St. -3
Portland -8
Houston -3-
Miami -3-
Memphis -2-

 

[Snookslayer]

Memphis -2-

Minnesota has injuries, but it still seems like the game should be a pick 'em. A 4-25 road record!?! Holy crap. That's the kind of record the Generals have going into a Harlem Globetrotter game.

 

[tendog]

lot of them alright, makes you wonder.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Hawks -1.5

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Rockets -3.5

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Nuggets -13.5

 

[Vig Vigorish]

Why did you leave off Memphis?

48%, line opened with them as a 2 point favorite and closed at -2.5

 

[letsgohoosiers]

EDIT - no play. Warriors opened -2.5 (-114) then seconds later were put to -3 (-105) on Pinnacle. I'm assuming -3 was the correct line.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

Memphis wasn't on there because I don't subscribe to SportsInsights and at the 7:40 update the odds were too close to call (51-49). Typically late betting is on the favorite so I estimated that Minnesota wouldn't close with the majority of the money.