NBA Quarter Tracking

[BetHalfLines]

I will simply track this little idea I came up with last night. Last night's results were 4-2. Was probably luck, but if I stumbled upon something decent, we'll find out soon.

1Q Mil -1 Value = 3.7 WIN
2Q Was +0.5 (this play =2.4, so right on the borderline) WIN
3Q Bos -2.5 Value = 2.7 WIN
2Q NYK +3 Value = 4.5 WIN
1Q Por -0.5 Value = 3.4 LOSS
1Q Ind +3 Value = 4 LOSS

For an explanation, see my post in... http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=652566

I'll put today's plays up hopefully before 6 PM Eastern tonight. Not sure when quarter lines generally come out.

 

[BetHalfLines]

I will try to break down record by quarter and value point ranges. I suspect that 4Q will be the least reliable, as thats when the game matters and defenses tighten up. So far, record-wise...

By Quarter
1Q: 1-2
2Q: 2-0
3Q: 1-0
4Q: 0-0

By Value Range
2.4 - 2.9: 2-0
3.0 - 3.4: 0-1
3.5 - 3.9: 1-0
4.0 - 4.4: 0-1
4.5 & up: 1-0

Today's plays so far, which I will always try to bold for ease of use...

2Q Cha +2 Value = 3.7
4Q Cha +1.5 Value = 2.6

I don't love the 4Q play here, especially since it doesn't show much "value" by the data. The 2Q on the other hand looks nice, but the juice is currently -125 for whatever reason. Most quarter plays, and please correct me if wrong, have a "normal" juice of -115. Thus, we'll have to hit a good percentage of these to make a profit. The rest of tonight's plays will be posted when the lines are available.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Today's final card...

2Q Cha +2 Value = 3.7 (-125)
4Q Cha +1.5 Value = 2.6
1Q Cle -2.5 Value = 4.5 (-120)
3Q Mia -0.5 Value = 3.6
3Q LAL -1 Value = 3.0
2Q Atl +2 Value = 3.4
1Q Orl -2.5 Value = 3.1

This is only day 2. Day 1 was 4-2, and I'm not so sure it wasn't just luck rather than a good idea. Like I said, I'll see how this pans out over the next few days, weeks etc. All juice is -115 unless otherwise noted. If you know where to get better lines or juice, please chime in. Good Luck with your plays tonight.

 

[BetHalfLines]

1/13 Results

Another winning day going 5-2. "System" now 9-4. Results for today below...

2Q Cha +2 Value = 3.7 (-125) LOSS
4Q Cha +1.5 Value = 2.6 WIN
1Q Cle -2.5 Value = 4.5 (-120) WIN
3Q Mia -0.5 Value = 3.6 WIN
3Q LAL -1 Value = 3.0 LOSS
2Q Atl +2 Value = 3.4 WIN
1Q Orl -2.5 Value = 3.1 WIN

By Quarter
1Q: 3-2
2Q: 3-1
3Q: 2-1
4Q: 1-0

By Value Range
2.4 - 2.9: 3-0
3.0 - 3.4: 2-2
3.5 - 3.9: 2-1
4.0 - 4.4: 0-1
4.5 & up: 2-0

I will do my best to get tomorrow's plays up asap once the lines are posted. Tomorrow, I am also going to try and break it down by betting 1 unit on each play to see how much you'd win/lose versus betting the value number as your unit on each play to see how much you'd win/lose. Its my suspicion that betting the value number as your unit would be beneficial in the long run, but who knows.

 

[BetHalfLines]

1/14

So, as noted above, I was going to try and see which was better; to flat bet all plays the same or to bet them according to their "value" ranking. Results below...

Overall Record: 9-4

By Quarter
1Q: 3-2
2Q: 3-1
3Q: 2-1
4Q: 1-0

By Value Range
2.4 - 2.9: 3-0
3.0 - 3.4: 2-2
3.5 - 3.9: 2-1
4.0 - 4.4: 0-1
4.5 & up: 2-0

Flat Betting Record: Risked 15.10 U, Won 4.30 U, ROI 28.47%
Value Betting Record: Risked 52.92 U, Won 14.815 U, ROI 28.00%

Of course, the important numbers here are the ROI, and I see no discernable difference at this point as they are almost exactly the same. The units really has no meaning, as I considered flat bets to be just '1' unit whereas value plays ranged from 2.4 to 4.5.

It has only been two days, so I'm still looking at this from a standpoint of "is this even worth it in the long run?" Two straight winning days doesn't have me convinced yet that its not just luck. I'd say at least a week of reasonable consistency (and I know thats very short, but the season is only so long.) Will post today's plays when the lines are up.

 

[BetHalfLines]

1/14 Plays

Hopefully the luck or system continues today. Not sure which it is. Records in previous post. Tonight's plays are...

1Q Tor -1 Value = 2.9
2Q Chi +1 Value = 3.1
3Q Det PK Value = 2.6
3Q Was +1 Value = 2.5
2Q Uta -1.5 Value = 2.5
2Q Mia +1.5 Value = 3.3
3Q LAL +0.5 Value = 3.0
3Q Sac +1.5 Value = 2.4 (this is the lower threshold @ 2.4 value)
4Q Atl -0.5 Value = 4.4

Three plays on that lower threshold of 2.4/2.5. However, plays in the range of 2.4 - 2.9 are 3-0. More likely coincidence than anything, but these three are plays nonetheless. NYK 1Q just misses as 'a play' at -1.5 as it would be valued at 2.3. All plays listed above are -115 this evening.

Risks for flat bets (i.e. per 1 unit) would be 10.35 U.
Risks for value bets would be 41.055 if you bet every play at the number next to it at odds of -115.

Good Luck tonight with whatever you play.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Last night's plays are graded below with all breakdowns updated. Last night was the first losing night after two winning nights. 4-5 last night, 13-9 overall.

1Q Tor -1 Value = 2.9 LOSS
2Q Chi +1 Value = 3.1 LOSS
3Q Det PK Value = 2.6 WIN
3Q Was +1 Value = 2.5 LOSS
2Q Uta -1.5 Value = 2.5 WIN
2Q Mia +1.5 Value = 3.3 LOSS
3Q LAL +0.5 Value = 3.0 LOSS
3Q Sac +1.5 Value = 2.4 WIN
4Q Atl -0.5 Value = 4.4 WIN


Overall Record: 13-9

By Quarter
1Q: 3-3
2Q: 4-3
3Q: 4-3
4Q: 2-0

By Value Range
2.4 - 2.9: 6-2
3.0 - 3.4: 2-5
3.5 - 3.9: 2-1
4.0 - 4.4: 1-1
4.5 & up: 2-0

Flat Betting Record: Risked 25.45 U, Won 2.55 U, ROI 10.02%
Value Betting Record: Risked 93.975 U, Won 9.515 U, ROI 10.125%

So, two winning days followed by a losing day. The two different wagering patterns still show no difference as the ROIs are nearly exact yet again. Again, flat betting assumes a flat unit per game, and in the case of grading, I'm using just '1' unit, so the risked vs. won are just arbitrary. ROI is the thing that matters. No real trends with regard to which quarters are better as I simply haven't had enough plays yet. Strangely enough, the highest and lowest range plays are doing the best. Today's plays in a few minutes...

 

[BetHalfLines]

1/15

Only one play today, and its the biggest 'value rating' thus far, hitting 5.0. The other two biggest were 4.5.

1Q Cle -2.5 Value = 5.0

Good luck with whatever you play this evening...and depending on in progress lines at some books, a play or two may be added during the game if it fits.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Win tonight on Cavs 1Q. Updated results below...obviously not that much different with only one game on the card, but its easier for me to follow doing it everyday. Oh, and I guarantee you something...that I will not hit 80% of these plays!

Overall Record: 14-9

By Quarter
1Q: 4-3
2Q: 4-3
3Q: 4-3
4Q: 2-0

By Value Range
2.4 - 2.9: 6-2
3.0 - 3.4: 2-5
3.5 - 3.9: 2-1
4.0 - 4.4: 1-1
4.5 & up: 3-0

Flat Betting Record: Risked 26.60 U, Won 3.55 U, ROI 13.35%
Value Betting Record: Risked 99.725 U, Won 14.515 U, ROI 14.56%

ROI very flexible with so few games played so far. Should balance out to a 'steady state' after 3 or 4 weeks I hope. And hopefully I am not just wasting my time with this and it proves to be worthwhile. Good Luck the rest of the evening.

 

[BetHalfLines]

If Phx moves to +2.5 for the 3Q, it will be a play of 2.5 Value. Currently at +2 at my book, but +2.5 elsewhere. I will confirm whether or not I'm playing depending on movement at my book. No reply = no play.

 

[BetHalfLines]

I did not reply to Phx as the line never moved last night on the 3Q, so that was a no play as stated above since no reply. Record still 14-9. See all stats two posts above from 1/16. Plays today...

1Q NYK +1 Value = 4.8 (-110)
2Q SA -0.5 Value = 2.5
1Q Det -1 Value = 4.6 (-120)
1Q Cle -0.5 Value = 2.7 (-125)
2Q Cle -0.5 Value = 4.1
2Q Min +2 Value = 3.3


All plays -115 unless posted otherwise. Strange thing has happened tonight, as Cle is a play in both the 1Q and 2Q. First time for this, and I'd have to recommend playing Cle 1H -1 (-115) as well. I will not count it toward my quarter tracking, but I will be playing it personally. No in progress plays tonight, because I won't be around or watching the games. If anyone is interested in 'personal' plays, I'm also playing Was this evening at -3 (-120). Hopefully these quarter plays stay in the plus. Still undetermined whether or not this "works."

Good Luck with your plays this evening.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Yesterday's results (3-3) and updated statistics below...

1Q NYK +1 Value = 4.8 (-110) LOSS
2Q SA -0.5 Value = 2.5 WIN
1Q Det -1 Value = 4.6 (-120) LOSS
1Q Cle -0.5 Value = 2.7 (-125) WIN
2Q Cle -0.5 Value = 4.1 WIN
2Q Min +2 Value = 3.3 LOSS

Overall Record: 17-12

By Quarter
1Q: 5-5
2Q: 6-4
3Q: 4-3
4Q: 2-0

By Value Range
2.4 - 2.9: 8-2
3.0 - 3.4: 2-6
3.5 - 3.9: 2-1
4.0 - 4.4: 2-1
4.5 & up: 3-2

Flat Betting Record: Risked 33.60 U, Won 2.55 U, ROI 7.59%
Value Betting Record: Risked 125.285 U, Won 9.22 U, ROI 7.36%

3-3 yesterday, bringing all these updated totals. Lower 'value' plays between 2.4 - 2.9 are hot at 8-2. Other than that, the -115 juice is hurting as 3-3 yields a significant loss on the day. ROIs are both just above 7%. They are nearly exact and I don't expect them to deviate much from one another at this point since the 'value' rating seems to be holding little meaning. Flat betting seems to be the way to go so far.

The good news is, the 'system' is still in the positive, or luck is simply on my side so far. Doesn't seem like this is going to be extremely profitable over the long run, but I will continue to track it until I either get really bored of doing it, or I start losing significantly. I'd say at least a few more weeks, as it gives me something to do. One early game today...I expect the quarter lines to be: Bos -2, Bos -1.5, Bos -1.5, Bos -1.5. If thats the case the play will be...

3Q Bos -1.5 Value = 3.3

If that needs to be changed, I'll do it later, but I full expect it to be right on. Boston would be a play in the 3Q as high as -2, the value just drops. Will post late plays later.

Good Luck with whatever you play today.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Bos turned out to be -2, Value of 2.8 and lost. The rest of tonight's plays...

3Q Por -0.5 Value = 3.4
2Q NY +0.5 Value = 2.5
1Q Orl PK Value =2.6 (-105)
2Q Uta +1 Value = 3.7
1Q Mil -1 Value = 2.9
4Q Mil -0.5 Value = 2.6

Good Luck.

 

[BetHalfLines]

Will grade last night's plays when I get a chance. It was a losing night. today...

1Q Mia +0.5 Value = 2.7
2Q Mia PK Value = 3.0

This happened once before, and I recommended playing the 1H for the team that was chosen. It won, so its all of 1-0. Either way, I think the same tonight with Mia. I'll be playing them 1H as well as a personal play, but not tracked in quarters. My personal plays in this thread are 2-0, which doesn't mean much. Good Luck with your plays.

 

[BetHalfLines]

MLK Day

Early games tomorrow, and I have the unfortunate luck of being busy at work during those games. Potential plays posted below w/ estimated lines. If lines tomorrow fall between these estimates, they will be marked as plays. The value = 0.0+ simply means value goes up if lines are better.

2Q Dal +1 or better Value = 2.5+
3Q SA -1 or better Value = 2.8+
1Q Tor Pk or better (I expect +1.5) Value = 2.8+
2Q Ind +0.5 or better (I expect +2) Value = 2.7+
3Q NO -2 or better Value = 2.5+
3Q LAC +1 or better Value = 2.7+
3Q Was -0.5 or better (I expect +1.5) Value 2.9+


I should be able to post the games after 5 PM eastern when I'm home. Any of these that match up with the spread or better that I listed will be included in the graded plays. I will also update the record tomorrow. Last two days I think its 4-5, for an overall of 21-17. I listed all the plays above b/c of the stats and where I expect the quarter spreads to be. My expectations are generally within 0.5 points, b/c quarters are obviously based on game spreads. Good luck tomorrow.

 

[BetHalfLines]

1/19

Plays turned out to be this...

2Q Dal +1 Value = 2.5 WINNER
3Q SA turned out to be a no play at -1.5
1Q Tor +2.5 Value = 5.3 WINNER
2Q Ind +2 Value = 4.2
3Q NO -2 Value = 2.5
3Q LAC +2 Value = 3.7
3Q Was +1.5 Value 4.9

My expectations for the quarters would pretty much exact, which made the value jump. Only one that wasn't a play was SA, as the quarter line was -1.5 not -1. 2-0 so far today, with the other four pending. Will update record in next post...

 

[BetHalfLines]

Results up to 1/19

Overall Record: 21-17

By Quarter
1Q: 7-6
2Q: 7-6
3Q: 5-4
4Q: 2-1

By Value Range
2.4 - 2.9: 10-5
3.0 - 3.4: 4-7
3.5 - 3.9: 2-2
4.0 - 4.4: 2-1
4.5 & up: 3-2

Flat Betting Record: Risked 43.95 U, Won 1.80 U, ROI 4.095%
Value Betting Record: Risked 155.730 U, Won 3.67 U, ROI 2.36%

So, these are the updated statistics up until today. This does not include the 2 winners from today or the four pending plays. ROI is starting to separate itself as more plays come through. It looks like flat betting is the way to go so far. On another note, the 'correlated' plays (when there is a play on one team in both the 1Q and 2Q, play the 1H also) are 2-0 so far. That may be something to look in to. Will update today's results, and post the late game plays in a bit.

Adding...
1Q Det -1 Value = 3.8
2Q Mem +1 Value = 2.8

 

[BetHalfLines]

Updates so far today...with added late plays...

2Q Dal +1 Value = 2.5 WIN
3Q SA turned out to be a no play at -1.5
1Q Tor +2.5 Value = 5.3 WIN
2Q Ind +2 Value = 4.2 LOSS
3Q NO -2 Value = 2.5 WIN
3Q LAC +2 Value = 3.7 WIN
3Q Was +1.5 Value 4.9 WIN
1Q Det -1 Value = 3.8 WIN
2Q Mem +1 Value = 2.8 PUSH

Adding...
1Q Mil +2 Value = 3.6
1Q Cle +1.5 Value = 4.7
4Q Cle +1 Value = 2.5

 

[BetHalfLines]

1/19 Results

Below results from yesterday...(6-4), and updated statistics.

Overall Record: 27-21

By Quarter
1Q: 9-8
2Q: 8-7
3Q: 8-4
4Q: 2-2

By Value Range
2.4 - 2.9: 12-6
3.0 - 3.4: 4-7
3.5 - 3.9: 4-3
4.0 - 4.4: 2-2
4.5 & up: 5-3

Flat Betting Record: Risked 46.60 U, Won 3.20 U, ROI 6.867%


2Q Dal +1 Value = 2.5 WIN
1Q Tor +2.5 Value = 5.3 WIN
2Q Ind +2 Value = 4.2 LOSS
3Q NO -2 Value = 2.5 WIN
3Q LAC +2 Value = 3.7 WIN
3Q Was +1.5 Value 4.9 WIN
1Q Det -1 Value = 3.8 WIN
2Q Mem +1 Value = 2.8 PUSH
1Q Mil +2 Value = 3.6 LOSS
1Q Cle +1.5 Value = 4.7 LOSS
4Q Cle +1 Value = 2.5 LOSS

I have decided to stop tracking the 'value' record, because it has worse statistics with respect to ROI and its a pain in the ass to calculate daily. Plus, the most successful range is the 2.4-2.9 range, which is the lowest 'value.' ROI isn't great by any means at 6.867%, but its still in the positive. I have also started to look at which teams are 'most reliable' or match their averages the best. I have broken it down by wins/losses when I play for or against each team (see chart, which for some reason I can't get to organize nicely).

PLAYED FOR vs. AGAINST
WIN LOSS WIN LOSS
ATL 2 0 1 0
BOS 1 1 0 0
CHA 1 1 1 0
CHI 0 1 1 2
CLE 4 2 0 0
DAL 1 0 0 1
DEN 0 0 1 0
DET 2 1 1 1
GST 0 0 2 0
HOU 0 0 0 1
IND 0 2 2 0
LAC 1 0 1 2
LAL 0 2 0 2
MEM 0 0 2 0
MIA 3 1 0 0
MIL 1 3 1 1
MIN 0 1 2 0
NJ 0 0 0 1
NO 1 0 3 1
NYK 1 2 0 1
OKC 0 0 3 1
ORL 2 0 0 0
PHI 0 0 2 1
PHX 0 0 1 1
POR 1 1 0 1
SAC 1 0 1 0
SA 1 0 0 1
TOR 1 1 1 1
UTA 1 1 0 1
WAS 2 0 2 1

Either way, teams are starting to show themselves as 'consistent' with regards to their averages or 'inconsistent.' My favorite teams so far are Atl, Cle, Mia, Was, whereas the most inconsistent performers include Mil, LAL and Chi. I am going to try and 'weight' my plays with regard to a teams 'consistency' when it comes to playing well or poorly in different quarters. I obviously hope to eliminate the losses, or at the very least, lessen them in terms of units. I will start tracking this instead of the 'value' betting idea.

I'm not bored of this idea yet, so I'll continue to post and track it. I have already looked through today's lines, and there are no plays. This is the first day that has happened, but with only four games, I'm not shocked. There is potentially some value in Den -5 for the 1H vs. Sac as the 1H point differentials are +2.1 and -5.1, respectively. I will not be adding this as a play, just saying it has value. Good luck with your plays.

 

[BetHalfLines]

1/21 Plays

Here are today's plays. Overall Record: 27-21 Flat Betting Record: Risked 46.60 U, Won 3.20 U, ROI 6.867%. A couple of lines aren't out yet, but I assume they will be close to my estimates. A new wrinkly I'm trying out is 'reliability' The reliability is how a team has performed so far under this 'system' when I bet with a certain team or against a certain team. The higher the reliability, the better. A negative number means not reliable (worst being -100). Zero simply is neutral. A perfect score is 100.

1Q Bos -1.5 (-120) Value = 3.2 Reliability = 0.0
3Q Bos -1.5 Value = 2.4 Reliability = 0.0
1Q Cle -0.5 (estimate) Value = 5.4 Reliability = 14.26
2Q Was +0.5 or +1 (estimate) Value = 3.6 or 4.1 Reliability = 100.0
3Q OKC +1.5 (estimate) Value = 3.5 Reliability = 100.0


None of these games look all that great to me, but then again the whole thing is based on averages. Last two games show good 'value' and 'reliability'. If the lines are different than my estimates, then the value changes; worse lines obviously decrease value and better lines increase value. Reliability will not change with the line as its based strictly on team performance compared to their average. We'll see how this plays out. Good Luck with your plays this evening.