NBA PLAYOFFS

[ATX]

nothing has changed. hope the rust doesnt hurt me. I have the total at 192. IMO they have set subtracted too many pts after NJ faced DET. NJ likes to run, SA turns the ball over which opens up the transition O for Kidd and co., SA just got finsihed running and gunning with Dallas, they may slow it down a little more than they did vs Dallas, but I took that into acct.

I have SA by 8-10. Not as solid a # as the total but a 55% play for me. Maybe something at the half.

 

[ATX]

SA over 92.5 for .5% 2nd half

 

[ATX]

HELL YEAH!!

I dont get excited much but it's nice to hit a wager that was almost 10x my recent exposure and tack on another 1.5% with the side and 2H. Still riding that SA -121 to win it all for 5%. They finally got the price up to -500 which is what I felt it should have been.

I'm taking SA -5.5 -107 or better (price or number) for 1% in game 2.

I'm taking the over 187 -107 or better for 1% in game 2.

 

[ATX]

beautiful day here, enjoyed one of the last sub 98 degree days on the lake...

SA -5 -111 for 1.1%

over 186 for .5%

NJ ML 1st half +164 for .4%

1st half over 92 for .6%

 

[ATX]

had trouble logging on...

3rd Q over 44 for .6%
2H OVER 93.5 FOR .2%

sa -5 FOR .3%

 

[ATX]

Game 3

SA +2 bought from +1.5 at OLY for .6%, havent looked at this game too much, been partying, but may play the over and 1st half over small. Hopefully something at the half.

 

[ATX]

2H SA under 92 for .3%

SA +1.5 for .3%

SA ML +125 for .2%

 

[ATX]

for game 4:

SA +2.5 OLY for 1.5%

I will almost certainly middle some of this, esp since it's around a 2.

under 183.5 for .6%

 

[ATX]

under 177.5 +230 OLY for .2%

I can get NJ -1.5 -106 now, but I'm still undecided on how I'm going to weight the middle.

 

[altice]

Good luck ATX.

 

[ATX]

thanks, Altice.

fwiw I feel this game has decent shot at landing on 1 or 2. I need to drink a couple beers and think about it some more but I'd say NJ wins game 4 by exactly 1 or 2 points at least 20% of the time. I'd love to see some -1's pop up, but I may have to buy. I'm going to leave my play weighted toward the SA +2.5, and I dont middle that much, but I've done real well with them this year.

 

[ATX]

I just hope the refs dont get involved with this one.

took SA +2.5 from the opener at OLY for 1.5%

took NJ -1 for .9%

took under 183.5 for .6%

took under 177.5 +230 for .2% (OLY prop)

for those of you that didnt capture the +2.5 a lot of value is gone on the middle if you have to buy points. What I am basically doing is risking .6% on SA +2.5 and less than .1% that the game will land on exactly 2 for a huge ROI (if it lands on 1 then the gain is almost 1.4% for those of you that emailed me and didnt have a chance to get back to yet). I'm also looking at NJ for the first half, but may pass and just play 2nd half lines which have been going very well.

 

[ATX]

2H SA over 93 for .5%

SA -3 for .4%

 

[ATX]

was hoping Kidd would miss one of those FT's but I'll take...

SA +2.5 for 1.5% W
under 183.5 for .6% W
under 177.5 +230 .2% for 4.6% W
NJ -1 PUSH DAMN should have bought the half.
SA -3 2nd for .4 W
over 93 L

GAME 5:

under 182.5 for 2%
SA +1 for 1.5%

 

[ATX]

HOLY SHIKEE that total is moving, wanted to go back for some more and WOW!!

 

[ATX]

SA 1st half under 89.5 OLY for .6%

 

[ATX]

adding .6% to SA -1, this will be one of my largest NBA plays, planning on middling some of the total back.

I know a lot of the value is gone now on the total, but SA at -1 is still a very solid play. I have made a killing in the playoffs and have decreased my exposure recently, but I like this play more than just about any play this season- at least in the last 2 or 3 months. SA wont shoot 29% from the field again. SA has made a habit of playing down to their competition, then raising their focus when need be. As bad as SA shot the ball they still had a shot to send it to OT. I could go on and on about multiple angles and how SA on the road since the All-Star break has been $$ but what's the point...

what I've got:

SA +1 for 1.5%
SA -1 for .6%

under 182.5 for 2% (will middle an undetermined amount)

1st H under 89.5 for .6%

 

[HacheMan]

Good luck with your plays ATX.....Theres one thing that confuses me here though, everyone keeps talking about how "bad" San Antonio is playing, that they are not hitting shots....What about New Jersey? The Nets' Defense has been just as solid as the Spurs and has as much to do with the Spurs low scoring as The Nets low scoring has to do with Spurs defense. Every game has come down to the wire, and if either team would of hit a few more shots, they would of won by a few more points. As a matter of fact, up until last night, New Jersey had many more shots on goal than San Antoinio in every game, they just didnt capitalize and hit these shots. What does New Jersey getting more shots in almost every game equal to?......Well, that New Jersey's defense is just as good as San Antonio's, and the Nets are winning other categories, such as steals, offensive rebounds, and hustle! The series is tied 2-2 and both defenses have dominated, but in the end, the only thing that obviously may separate these 2 teams, is, Tim Duncan.

 

[ATX]

Hache, you bring up some valid points. IMO, there is more than just Tim Duncan separating the two teams. SA has a better overall defense, and has the ability to score more points, and better coaching. This is debatable of course, but I feel that with SA the sum of the parts is better than with NJ.

The reason for my large play on SA is based on the number as much as anything. I have SA winning by 5-7 points almost 65% of the time in this situation. My distributions have been fairly accurate in this series as shown by game.

G1: huge play on the over as I had 192 as very likely to occur, landed on 190.
large play on SA as I had them winning by 8-10 at least 55% of the time, SA won 101-89.

G2: overall loss on SA and the over, smaller plays

G3: overall win on smaller plays

G4: distribution showed NJ winning by EXACTLY 1 or 2 points at least 20% of the time in that situation, large play on weighted middle of SA +2.5 and NJ -1 cashes and pushes, made a mistake of not buying NJ to -.5, medium play on under and prop U 177.5 +230 cash as well.

For game 5 I have SA winning SU over 70% of the time in THIS situation. So with the +1 there was a LOT of value, with the -1 almost as much. Are my numbers ever off? Often. Does what is predicted fail to occur? Daily. Do I ever find value as good as this? Relatively rarely. I was fairly certain when this opened that the # would cross 2, and that had a little effect on the size of the play as well b/c of the middle opp.

As far as the total, when they opened it I figured the # would drop at least 2 points. I liked the opening number under for about 1%, so I put 2% on it hoping to get two numbers in-between after line movement so I could middle 1% back on the over with a fair chance of hitting both.

This doesnt help many people who havent wagered yet, and are stuck with #'s after line movement. I would take SA -2 for 1.5% (If you have to buy off 2.5, I would-I usually buy on/off of 2) and under 179 for .5% or so, the total is a little shaky. Keep in mind that the profit I have made over the playoffs DOES have an effect on the strength of my current plays.

 

[ATX]

over 178.5 Canbet -107 for 1% to complete the middle

NJ +3.5 bodog for .5%, small middle opp for me.