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ATX

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"if Duncan doesnt pick up foul #4..."

yup, my thoughts exactly. But how did he pick up foul #4?

Because they CALLED foul #4.

in SA G5 they let them play, Kobe got some extra contact driving to the basket that went uncalled- in LA G4 if you looked at a Laker wrong it was a foul. LA has an adv if this turns into a FT shooting contest, I look for the zebras to make it one- if need be. I would be shocked to see SA win in this situation- not b/c they arent the better team, but b/c of what is at stake. I've been watching the SAC/LA series from last year, I feel the BS calls or lack of are part of the 'script' if need be this year as well. I got down on LA -4.5 the minute the line came out. If this hits 6 I may middle for a small amount but I doubt it, I dont want to give up my initial position. It would be nice if the 1st half total lands on 94 again!! I'll look into that SAC total, one thing that worries me is if one team gets cold, or misses 3 pointers...I was planning to look more at the 2nd half total.

My strategy from here on out is pretty much 2% of BR on the majority of sides for the remaining games. 1% on most everything else. Over the past few years I've hit over 60% on plays during the conference finals and NBA finals, so I raise the stake just as I did in the NFL playoffs. Just as long as I hit 53% on the plays...been making some jack in bases which takes a lot of the pressure off. Best of luck guys, I got down on PHI already as well like that play maybe even more.
 

ATX

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pulled the trigger...

3team ML parlay on PHI,SAC,LA

1% to win 1.56%
 

ATX

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congrats to all SA bettors, it was too easy, Nicholson put it best "We had some decent refs tonite", waiting for SA prop to win it all to come out, hoping for less than 5 to 1. If they sign Jermaine this should be a powerhouse for years. PHI
 

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EVERYONE I KNOW ALL YEAR SAID
SPURS AND MAVS!
OUTSIDE OF THE LOCALS HERE IN TAHOE
BEING SO CLOSE TO SAC, AND ME AND SOME
DIE HARD LAKER FANS!
THERE WILL BE A NEW CHAMP THIS YEAR!
GOOD LUCK!
icon_wink.gif
 

ATX

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Tahoe, thx.

Any insight on SAC, being a couple thousand miles closer than I?? I'm not convinced SAC wins the series, the look on their coach's face isnt one of confidence...

Besides, a lot of my friends hate me for rooting against the Mavs.
 

ATX

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Ok, I've been up all night alley-cattin around, but SA to win the NBA finals at -120??

What the hell am I missing here??

I have it at more than 5 to 1...

Thoughts?
 

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ATX - I read your posts daily and find you to be very insightful. But to think that SA would be 5-1 is insane. They just disposed of the 3x champs in 6, and realistically just have to beat Sac or Dallas as KILLER can't see any Eastern team beating them 4X. Killer thinks 120 ia a little low and would have pegged it at 160.

Good Luck
 

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ATX,
My thoughts on Sac and Dallas both are about the
same.
SAC and Dallas both rely on great shooting.
If either team has an of shooting night, they can be beat. Kinda what Lab was saying. But I feel that Sac has a better shot against SA than
Dallas. I don't think SA can be beaten either.

GAME 7 SAC +3 they were in a Game 7 last year
experience factor!
icon_wink.gif


GL ATX!
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ATX,

I respect your plays greatly, but have to agree that you thinking they would be at 5-1 or better means that something is off somewhere.

What do you make the series lines between them and the remaining competition for the possible outcomes?

They will be HEAVY favorites, and I expected them to be odds-on, or at best even money after this series. They were only between 5-1 and 7-1 prior to the playoffs. I'm rooting for them as I took them for a decent bet at 7-1. But, realistically, I can't see them not winning.

Good Luck,
Bart
 

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Antonio,

ATX was guessing they might be 5/1, but it was simply incorrect.

Looking forward to more plays from ATX.

Good Luck,
Bart
 

ATX

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NO, NO, NO!!

now you see what drinking all night can do to the communication skills...

I have SA at -500, sorry for the miscommunication. I was hoping to get SA at less than -500, I should have typed 1/5.

Dallas has a shot at beating SA if they can hit those 3's, and their team is intact. SA has also been playing an up-tempo style vs LA, which favors their opponent. Pop is a hell of a coach and has PJ as an assistant. I feel they will try to slow things down and win the reb battle which is a huge key. SA also has 15 fouls to give down low with Tim, Rob, and T-Rex. DAL/SAC will have to rely on penetration and dish and hope those outside shooters can hit. I dont think SAC/DAL can get away with cold shooting for long if SA inputs the proper game plan, SA can really make you pay as seen in the huge leads they were able to put on the defending champs. Who will stop Duncan?? I think it will have to be a true team effort by either opponent to offset the MVP, and a poor performance by SA's supporting cast. SA must take care of the ball, if they dont that can play into thier opponent's hand. SA has home court.

SA vs the East: tough to make an argument for the East, esp. with SA having home court.
DET could be the cinderella story of the NBA, keeping in line with recent other events (ANA MLB, Ohio State, TB- them being a dog still boggles my mind) but that doesnt seem to happen in the NBA Finals recently.

I took SA to win it all at -120 for 5% of BR. A huge risk since I took SA a lot earlier during their road winning streak after the All-Star break for a lot less, but I still think SA should be -500. They are one of the better NBA teams I have ever seen with their depth and combination of strength down low and outside shooters. Now -136 at Pinn.
 

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ATX,

Knew that something had to be up with you saying 5-1. I agree that the Spurs are the team to beat and think that you pick up 5% of your BR. I hope so, since I made a bet on them at 7-1 a while ago.

Good Luck,
Bart
 

ATX

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I dont like the SAC/DAL game very much, too many intangibles on both sides. SAC was aided very much by the FT's they were awarded at home.

The visiting team has clinched in LA, PHI, and BOS lately.

I took SAC ML +156 for .5%, I feel this should be more like 135-145. Besides, I'll be watching the game with a bunch of MAVS fans. Best of Luck.
 

ATX

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SAC -1.5 +132 at pinn for .3%

just a play based on value.
 

ATX

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NJ +2 for 1.5%

NJ +2 parlayed to under 182 for .5%

feel there is enough of a corr. to stay off a straight under play.

SA NBA title future is going up, still has a lot of value at -160 or so, if SA wins G1 it will shoot up.
 

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ATX,
-2?NETS RIGHT?
LETS HIT EM TODAY MY FRIEND!
I PLAYED NETS -1 1ST HALF AND UNDER 91!
GL
icon_biggrin.gif
 

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Still a long series, i might take Dallas if they are down 0-2, should be a value play. maybe @10/1 or something~ Hey Atx, good luck on Under, i got screwed a few times by OTs last week, let's hope it wont happen tonight~
 

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