NBA PLAYOFFS

[ATX]

points of interest:

series prices:

SAC -130

PHI -135

SA -115

SA opened at +140, basically little has changed since both teams have won at home, if anything LA looks to have a better shot now that they have proven they can beat the Spurs. Seems the oddsmakers are trying to book more LA action, and if this goes 7 games better odds would be available on LA for game 7 than the series price avail now. The price for SA is cheaper for the series than one would get taking SA in both of their home games (if/when game 7 is necessary). The key to the sports market is beating the oddsmaker, being faster to the value than they can change it, and I think LA's last 3 championships still has quite a lingering effect on this price. I'm not sure how much this price is driven by public demand. But the numbers on SA, home and away this year, with 2 of 3 at home remaining, suggest that LA is overpriced. I like the fact that PINN offers more value on LA. If SA loses at home tonite, they still have a legit shot at the series (other than officiating), they have proven they can win on the road and made a habit of it after the All-Star break.

My hunch is PHI in 6. I will most likely take PHI in their next game at DET. I dont see PHI losing at home, and I would be surprised if PHI didnt win one at DET, the line of +1.5 leads me in that direction as well. But then again, not much of anyone gave DET much of a shot in this series. No one has more heart than AI, too many things have to happen in each game for a DET W- I think this catches up to them. I liked NJ and SA to hook up in the finals before the playoffs started, still do.

SAC opened as a big favorite for their series over DAllas. The injury has an effect on this price of course, but if the oddsmakers think SAC loses tonite at DAL it's interesting that they have SAC favored by so much for the series. I'm not a big follower of series and the scalps involved, but this price leads me to believe somebody likes SAC tonite. My guess is SAC wins tonite, DAL wins at SAC, then SAC returns the favor in game 7 at Dallas.

 

[ATX]

SA -3 for 2%

I may put more on this later, money is coming in on SA, dont want to lose the 3.

leaning to DAL under 220

may put 1% on SAC, and a little on ML

leaning hard to SA 1st half under

 

[res]

ATX--What's your take on playing SA on the -160 ML???

 

[kglf]

to res sez - I know you asked ATX - but KILLER says if you like SA lay the points: if the game is this close both teams will foul and most likely the number will be more than 3 no matter who wins.

 

[ATX]

I cant remember the last time I played a ML over -140 straight. The needed winning % on plays of -160 is too high for me. Appears to be a lot of sharp action on SA ML and SAC ML, or the books are begging for LA ML plays. In the NBA the team that wins the game covers the spread 84% of the time so I only take ML's on dogs. There are few games that are decided by 2 points or less, a lot of this is due to the fouling at the end. Long term you will make more by playing ATS, that is how I look at it, I try not to get too caught up in single games. Instead of hammering the Spurs on the ML, put less on SA -3 for a better return, there are quite a few games left, and I am already looking to hammer some Eastern Conference vs Western Conference games in the finals, and maybe some heavy fades against DAL or SAC in the Western finals.

I cant do much more research on SA/LA. A couple of other notes:

noted LA win % on road.
noted SA's poor win % at home favored by 3 or less
noted SA spread has gone up since G1 and G2 event though LA beat them twice since then
noted REB edge for LA- look for SA to focus on improving there
noted FT attempt discrepancy for each team at home vs on road- this is major part of equation, I feel SA gets the calls at home.

Am pretty sure the league feels this is pretty much the NBA Finals series, the ratings giant, and the officials may give a 'little helping hand' to get this to G7. Or maybe an OT win for SA at LA in G6.

1st half under is avail at 96 at OLY, it's 94.5 with heavy ML at PINN.

 

[ATX]

Killer,

you beat me to it, but my thoughts exactly. A recent example is the OT game last night. I would take SA -5.5 for almost the same amount, and one distribution I have that is pretty accurate at predicting blowouts has SA by DD. You have to factor in the officiating though, and this could be a defensive battle. SA loves to turn the ball over which worries me, and FT % is not a plus (hopefully Tim has hit a rhythm), but SA has a huge advantage in talent, and depth, and the matchups favor SA as well

 

[res]

Was just curious as to your take. Lot of places you are paying better than dime line when laying the points. Main motivation for asking lies in the ability to predict where public money is going to fall from now until game time. Am going to play half of my play now at 3 and watch the money until game time. Thanks for your insights and stay hot. Let's cash this one.

 

[kglf]

ATX - good write up - this series has seven written all over it and then will see if the NBA (refs) favor LA or not. I expect a stong bounce back game by the Spurs tonite.

Good Luck

 

[ATX]

Killer, thanks.

I dont want people to get the wrong impression tho, nothing is a lock, I just play the percentages.

so far:

SA -3 for 2.5%

SA under 96 for 1.5% ***I will take over 93 or 93.5 for .5% possible middle--under 95.5 is a good 1% play.

SAC +3 or better for 1%
SAC ML +130 or better for .5%
SAC under 220 (bodog) for .5%

for 2nd half, I'm looking at going over in SA game (esp 4th q) AT THE HALF, depending on situation may take SA in the 2nd.
SAC/DAL 2nd half ??? who knows???

 

[ATX]

close to what I expected just dont like all the fouls...

2H SAC +5 for .5%

2H SAC ML +194 for .2%

 

[ATX]

hit the middle, hell yeah.

blowouts tend to go under.

SPURS +6 for .5%

SPURS ML +255 for .3%

UNDER 99.5 for 1%

 

[ATX]

gettin started on SAC -5.5

the refs give them the -5

 

[ATX]

took LA -4.5 for 2%, got hit hard now at 5

 

[ATX]

took PHI +2.5 for .6% nothing big, looking for something at the half.

 

[ATX]

PHI 4th q over 44.5 for .5%

 

[ATX]

PHI -6.5 or better for 2%

 

[ATX]

so far I have:

LA -4.5 (opener) for 2% may add more

PHI -6.5 for 2%

I am taking SAC at best avail may buy to 5 for 2%

looking hard at LA -3 +102 1st half, the +102 is key. also may middle LA over 93 +102 and LA under 94. 94, 95 are still pretty strong #'s.

havent looked too hard at totals, may wait until halftime- not sure if SAC's shooting % carries over to the 1st Q/1st half, not sure how refs call either of these games.

 

[kglf]

ATX - Killer thinks Spurs will continue their strong 1st half play then LA will close gap in 2nd half - I lean towards a Spurs 1st half play. Also think the Kings game will go over as I can't see another ten point quarter by Sac and both teams seem to have their second wind after the grueling weekend.

Good Luck!

 

[ATX]

it's difficult for me to gauge how the Spurs come out after the 2nd half debacle. Officials want this game to go 7, LA may win this game from the free throw line, look for Shaq to put a lot more effort into things tonight. I still think SA wins G7, that Horry miss is an omen of sorts.

In game 6 of NBA quarterfinals the team that is up 3 games to 2 is a paltry 15-23 straight up, historically. Applies to both tonite.

 

[Blacklab]

ATX...pound sac over......this game will be a track meet.....Mavs looked to push the pace like crazy last game,and only because they saw a wounded animal infront of them they pushed even harder......Sac will not be manhandled like this again,and will push right back......I'm 5-0 in totals in this series,and see a game in the 240's here......also,Lakers will either win big,or spurs will win small....can't see any other way around it.....since I need the spurs in 6,I should play lakers ml here,but I'm not hedging,and feel Spurs are a legitimate threat to end it.....


Here's some food for thought----If Duncan dosen't pick up foul #4 in 3rd qtr of game 4,this series is over....