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Week 20 in the NBA
There's a lot to get to, and this column is bursting at the seams, so let's dive right into our team-by-team look at what Week 20 has in store. The
NBA Schedule Grid is probably the most important tool you can have this late in the fantasy season, and it's just one aspect of
Rotoworld's comprehensive Season Pass.
Four Games -- Bulls, Cavaliers, Hawks, Heat, Hornets, Jazz, Knicks, Lakers, Magic, Mavericks, Pistons, Rockets, Suns, Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, Wizards
Three Games --Bobcats, Bucks, Celtics, Clippers, Grizzlies, Kings, Nets, Nuggets, Pacers, Raptors, 76ers, Spurs, Thunder, Warriors
Four-game teams
Bulls (mia, orl, phi, NO)
Fantasy owners have to be thrilled with
Joakim Noah's production since March 1st. He's not playing huge minutes (29 per game) or scoring many points (8.3), but you didn't expect him to score much anyway. What makes his play impressive is his solid big-man stats of 11.7 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game. (You can swoon over his surreal 93% free throw shooting, on 4.7 attempts per game, but that's obviously not going to last.)
Brad Miller has settled into a 25+ minute role off the bench, and his owners have to resign themselves to muted production the rest of the season. Since joining the Bulls, he actually has twice as many turnovers (15) as steals and blocks combined (seven). Another key for the Bulls this week is the potential return of
Luol Deng (tibia). Even if he plays, however, it's unlikely he'll be logging many minutes. That gives
John Salmons a good chance to average close to 20 points per game this week. Keep an eye on
Kirk Hinrich, as well, since he bruised his thigh on Friday and only played five minutes in the second half.
Cavaliers (lac, pho, sac, NY)
This is one of the most favorable four-game schedules we'll see all season. In terms of points allowed, the Cavs opponents are ranked eighth, fifth, second and third, respectively. All four teams are in the top-12 in FG% allowed, and the Kings give up the single-highest 3PT% of any team (40.7%). There's not much more that needs to be said --
Ben Wallace is currently the only injured Cavalier, so feel free to start everyone else. After all, if you're not using them in a week like this, why even own them?
Hawks (NO, UTAH, IND, POR)
It seems like way more teams than usual have their entire schedule either on the road or at home, and it's worth exploring how that might impact their performance. For the Hawks, road games mean fewer points and lower FG%, but that's pretty much standard for the league and can't be counted against individual players. What is worth noting is that the Hawks, who record the sixth-most assists at home (23.9), suddenly plummet to 29th when they take their show on the road (18.0). That's the biggest drop-off of any team in the NBA, and doesn't bode well for the assist totals of
Joe Johnson or
Mike Bibby. Considering Bibby is in a horrible offensive funk anyway (15-of-50 from the field in the past five games), that might resonate with owners in shallow leagues.
Heat (CHI, BOS, UTAH, phi)
It's the
Dwyane Wade show in Miami, and his owners have to be thrilled with this four-game slate, even if it features the Celtics and the surging Jazz. It's almost numbing to rehash all of his recent statistics...suffice to say, he's scored 35+ points in four straight games, has averaged 11.5 assists in the past six games, and has made at least 53% of his shots in nine consecutive games. His huge performances have cast a shadow over
Jermaine O'Neal's sluggish play and the typical rookie inconsistency of
Michael Beasley. One positive sign is that
Mario Chalmers has at least 30 minutes, 10 points, two 3-pointers and one steal in each March game.
Hornets (atl, was, mil, chi)
Tyson Chandler has four double-doubles in the past six games, and all the talk is about how the "botched" trade to Oklahoma City has inspired the previously underperforming Hornets. They should have little trouble sustaining their momentum against this fragile group of Eastern teams, regardless of the strain of being on the road.
Peja Stojakovic is doubtful for Saturday's game and coach Byron Scott said he'll be "cautious" with him, so check for an update on Sunday before committing to him.
Morris Peterson is questionable for Saturday, but his minutes have dwindled so hopefully nobody is relying on him. The only other concern I have this week is Wednesday's game against the Wizards -- even if
Caron Butler is in uniform, Washington is a threat to get blown out every time they step on the court, so dimished returns for Hornets owners are very possible.
Jazz (ind, atl, mia, orl)
Utah is riding an NBA-best 10 game winning streak, but they have struggled on the road all season. Their 11-17 road record is actually the worst of any Western playoff team, though games against the Pacers, Hawks and Heat are obviously winnable. One glaring trend in their road games this season is a dearth of three-pointers -- they make just 4.5 per game (28th in the league), on 31.2% shooting (29th). In other words, don't expect a banner week from
Mehmet Okur or
Kyle Korver. One none-too-surprising sidenote --
Deron Williams has at least 10 assists in every game of Utah's current win streak.
Knicks (mil, det, min, cle)
Yet another schedule of all road games, though the Knicks don't have any glaring deficiencies when they play away from MSG. Sure, they block an incredibly low 2.6 shots per game, but that's actually 0.3
more than they manage at home. Keep in mind that
Jared Jeffries (bruised knee) is expected to sit out on Saturday, while
Nate Robinson (anke) is expected to play.
Eddy Curry has returned to practice and should be picked up immediately. Assuming you're in a league with 90 teams that only counts calories and DNPs, of course.
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Lakers (por, hou, sa, DAL)
I don't think there's much to be said about the Lakers this week. The quality of their competition is stiff, a possible preview of some playoff pairings, but shouldn't significantly alter fantasy values. Perhaps the most worthwhile thing to point out is that Phil Jackson recently described the rest of the regular season as "fulfilling the obligation of an 82-game schedule." He has mentioned in the past that he may eventually start limiting his starters' minutes as the season winds down, so keep that in mind for future weeks.
Magic (det, CHI, was, UTAH)
The Knicks have recently overtaken the Magic for most 3-pointers per game (10.5 vs. 10.3), but you can't blame
Rashard Lewis for that. He's averaging 3.3 in the past three games, and has made at least one in a remarkable 54 consecutive games. He has also scored 20+ points in three straight games, after failing to do so in the previous 14. Hopefully you hung onto him during his post-Jameer lull. If you were expecting
Rafer Alston's value to spike once he joined the Magic, I have bad news for you. He's averaging the same amount of points as he was with the Rockets, still shoots sub-40% from the field (no surprise there) and his three-pointers have dropped to just 0.8 on 23% from downtown. He's pitching in with 6.0 assists and 1.9 steals, but mid-tier PGs like
Mike Conley and
Aaron Brooks are consistently outperforming him at this point.
Mavericks (pho, por, gs, lal)
Yet another team embarking on a long road trip, though the Mavericks at least face two sub-par defensive squads. The Suns have yielded a league-high 118.5 ppg over the past 10 games, while their opponents shot 50% from the field and 43% from downtown. The Blazers are no slouches defensively, but the Warriors give up the most points of any team (111.3 per game) and the second-most assists (24.1). Then there are the Lakers, who give up 100+ ppg despite holding their opponents to 44.7% shooting, fifth-best in the NBA. That seeming contradiction is accounted for by the Lakers' high number of possessions per game.
Jason Terry has struggled from the field since his return from injury, shooting 21-of-54 (39%) from the field, and
Josh Howard's lingering ankle issue doesn't seem like it will go away any time soon. That leaves
Dirk Nowitzki to carry the Mavs' offense, which is fine for his owners...unfortunately the Mavs' lack of options makes life hard for
Jason Kidd -- he handed out a season-low two assists in a loss to the Hornets on Thursday.
Pistons (ORL, NY, tor, MEM)
It's not a coincidence that the Pistons are on a four-game winning streak with
Allen Iverson sidelined for the past four games, though blaming Detroit's struggles on A.I. isn't exactly fair either. In any case, the new lineup has been great for Rip Hamilton, who has 20+ in all four of those wins.
Rodney Stuckey has also cracked double-digits in four straight, after failing to do so in five previous games. Detroit has also scored 100 points in three straight games for the first time since mid-November, so clearly the absence of A.I. has loosened up the entire offense. Dates with New York and Toronto mean a three-point barrage should be forthcoming, with
Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton providing virtually all of the artillery. The Pistons rank 28th in three-pointers per game (4.6).
Rockets (den, LAL, cha, SA)
It looks like shutting down
Tracy McGrady for the season was the best thing that could have happened to the Rockets. They have won nine of the past 11 games, but this schedule should be a true test of where they are in the West's pecking order.
Aaron Brooks is still somewhat inconsistent, especially when it comes to scoring and shooting (just 40% on the season), but he's coming off a 30-point game and dropped 22 & 10 on March 1st. Keep in mind that the Spurs are ranked 2nd in fewest three-pointers allowed, which could dent the production of both Brooks and
Ron Artest.
Luis Scola is in a double-double groove right now, and the return of
Carl Landry has done very little to disrupt his production.
Shane Battier, on the other hand, has made a mere 8-of-31 shots in the past six games, without making three FGs in any single game. That's appalling, and even his vaunted versatility isn't enough to make him worth your while in average leagues right now.
Suns (DAL, CLE, OKC, gs)
When he's not exchanging trash talk with ex-coaches (Stan Van Gundy) or sensitive big men (RuPaul), Shaq has actually been playing great basketball lately. He's made 73% of his shots in the past five games, though his FT shooting is predictably poor and he's not handing out many assists. The absence of
Amare Stoudemire has given him the touches he's craved all season, and he should have his way with the likes of
Erick Dampier,
Nenad Krstic and
Andris Biedrins.
Steve Nash has been dominant since returning from his ankle injury (at least on offense) and needs to be active in all formats.
Matt Barnes continues to play power forward, with
Grant Hill at small forward, and it's a situation that works to both players' advantage.
Timberwolves (WAS, MEM, NY, CHA)
The T-Wolves actually average fewer points, 3-pointers, free throws and assists when playing at home, which is highly unusual. Neverthless, they have a relatively comfortable slate of visiting Eastern Conference teams.
Ryan Gomes is a safe start, as is
Randy Foye as long as he looks sharp on Saturday.
Kevin Love is coming off consecutive 18 & 14 games, and needs to be started even if you're leery of his inconsistency.
Trail Blazers (LAL, DAL, NJ, atl)
Greg Oden is still out, giving
Joel Przybilla another shot at decent rebound and block totals, with some low-volume, high-percentage scoring mixed in. Otherwise, the Blazers don't have much worth remarking on this week. Use them as you normally would.
Wizards (min, NO, ORL, SAC)
Umm...the Wizards are a mess right now, as they have been pretty much all season.
Caron Butler's status for Saturday is in doubt, as he still has tightness in his hamstring.
Antawn Jamison deserves a medal for his resiliency and valor.
Andray Blatche has played 30+ minutes in back-to-back games for the first time since late-December, so keep a close eye on him.
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Three-game teams
Three-game teams this week are being presented with minimal commentary (basically a rough injury report, though you should of course dig into Dr. A's Monday Dose for the best and latest injury updates). We've covered 16 teams in-depth (and this column has already exceeded 2,000 words), but if you have specific questions the crack staff at RW is always available via email.
Bobcats (sa, HOU, min)
The Bobcats are healthy, though it's worth watching to see if
Raja Bell's recent biceps injury affects his shot at all. They're charging hard toward a playoff spot in the watered-down Eastern Conference, and should give the Spurs and Rockets a nice challenge.
Bucks (NY, NO, BOS)
Luke Ridnour has clearly taken a backseat to
Ramon Sessions, which is a relief to the majority of fatnasy owners. He's also coming off an arm injury, so don't use him unless you're completely out of alternatives. That game against the Celtics is even more intimidating when it represents 33% of the schedule.
Celtics (mia, MEM, mil)
The battered Celtics are looking for help wherever they can get it. On Friday it was
Leon Powe (20 & 11) leading the charge, but it's unwise to rely on Powe in a shortened week. Justifying my desire to ignore him, Starbury is averaging 2.5 points in his four games with the Celts.
Clippers (CLE, den, NJ)
Eric Gordon may return on Saturday, which would be a relief, but
Zach Randolph remains out indefinitely as he stays with his ailing father in Indiana. I wouldn't gamble on Z-Bo unless we get a solid indication that he'll play against the Cavs.
Marcus Camby should be fine, but you never know when his soon-to-be-infamous migraines will strike.
Grizzlies (min, bos, det)
Mike Conley left Wednesday's game with a broken tooth, but should be fine for Saturday.
Kings (OKC, CLE, was)
Francisco Garcia is likely to play Sunday despite having a non-displaced fracture in his finger. His shot might be off, and the Cavaliers defense makes 1/3 of this schedule unwelcoming anyway, so use him cautiously.
Beno Udrih is day-to-day, but based on his play this season I'd imagine there aren't many non-relatives who will be deploying him.
Nets (gs, por, lac)
Nuggets (HOU, OKC, LAC)
Kenyon Martin is out indefinitely, so keep him benched indefinitely.
Anthony Carter is...well, old.
Pacers (UTAH, atl, tor)
Danny Granger is doubtful for Saturday and questionable for Tuesday...if you don't have many alternatives you can gamble on him, but I don't recommend it.
Raptors (phi, DET, IND)
76ers (TOR, CHI, MIA)
Spurs (CHA, LAL, hou)
Drew Gooden should be a fantasy asset before the season is over, but it's not gonna happen next week.
Thunder (sac, den, phx)
Jeff Green (back) might play on Saturday,
Thabo Sefolosha (MCL) is a game-time decision and
Kevin Durant (ankle) is doubtful. Check for updates throughout the weekend.
Warriors (NJ, DAL, PHX)
It's not even worth speculating what's going to happen with the Warriors this week. They have injuries (
Stephen Jackson,
Corey Maggette), personal absences (
Andris Biedrins) and random DNP-Coach's Decisions. The whole drama between Don Nelson and
Jamal Crawford is too bizarre to even comment on here, but fantasy owners knew they would have to contend with Nellie's insanity before the season ended.
Anthony Randolph is looking like a viable option this week, but I wouldn't be surprised if Nellie's scheming a way to send him to the D-League.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=subHead vAlign=top colSpan=3>Zach Randolph not expected to play Saturday </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=vaLabel colSpan=3>Zach Randolph - F/C - LAC - Mar. 7</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top colSpan=3>Zach Randolph is expected to miss Saturday's game because he is still attending to his critically ill father in Indiana.
