On Shaq's Plate
Welcome to the 19th edition of
The Week Ahead. As usual, there are injuries and lineup changes to be discussed, along with the all-important team schedules. On Friday alone, Shaq found the Raptors finger-licking good, Don Nelson hoodwinked owners of
Jamal Crawford, and Chris Anderson finished a win over the Lakers with 145 points. Or was it 60 rebounds? Read on to find out what next week has in store (and what I'm talking about).
Four Games -- Bucks, Cavaliers, Grizzlies, Hawks, Heat, Mavericks, Nets, Nuggets, Rockets, Spurs, Suns, Thunder, Warriors, Wizards
Three Games -- Bobcats, Bulls, Celtics, Clippers, Hornets, Jazz, Knicks, Magic, Pacers, Pistons, Raptors, 76ers, Timberwolves, Trail Blazers
Two Games -- Kings, Lakers
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Four-game teams
Bucks (NJ, cle, chi, GS)
The Bucks are, amazingly, still hanging onto the eigth playoff spot despite playing without
Andrew Bogut and
Michael Redd. A big part of the reason is the play of
Charlie Villanueva, who is going off to the tune of 21.3 points, 2.0 threes, 7.0 rebounds and 3.1 assists in February. He's still a huge liability on defense, but coach Scott Skiles has no choice but to keep him in there no matter what happens. Considering fantasy leagues are skewed toward offensive production (and blown coverages aren't a statistic) it's not a big concern. Another player you almost have to start is
Richard Jefferson. He is pitching in 2.9 assists per game in February, to go along with 23.3 points and 2.0 threes, but adds a meager 0.3 steals and 0.2 blocks. Just overlook the fact that he has three rebounds (total) in the past three games. Keep in mind that NJ and GS both allow their opponents to shoot at least 38.8% from downtown, 28th and 29th in the league, respectively. That bodes well for RJ and CV, of course, but
Charlie Bell and
Luke Ridnour could add some respectable 3PT totals off the bench.
Cavaliers (mia, MIL, bos, MIA)
The Cavaliers in a four-game week don't present many mysteries. LeBron, Big Z and Mo are all automatic.
Delonte West reported no discomfort in his wrist following Friday's game, and should be safe to keep active this week. The only dark horse is
Anderson Varejao -- we've thoroughly discussed his increased role now that
Ben Wallace (broken fibula) is out four-to-six weeks, and he's probably worth starting this week. His comfort zone as a starter (which he rarely leaves) is right around 10 points, eight rebounds, one steal and one block.
Grizzlies (lal, lac, PHI, hou)
Four games means
Rudy Gay,
O.J. Mayo,
Mike Conley and
Marc Gasol are each worthy starts. Gasol is somewhat inconsistent, but he's coming off a 22 & 15 game and is nearly averaging a double-double in February (11.1 points, 8.6 rebounds). Now to feed your fantasy frenzy with a stat-laden paragraph from the (highly recommended) Memphis Commercial-Appeal: "Griz point guard Conley is averaging 14.3 points, 6.4 assists and 4.6 rebounds this month. Rookie
Darrell Arthur is back in the starting lineup. He's averaging 8.7 points and 4 rebounds on 68.4-percent shooting in his last three games. Mayo is shooting 38.2 percent in five games since the All-Star Break. Gay is averaging 11.5 points on 40-percent shooting in the last two games. Backup point guard
Marko Jaric has missed his last 17 field goal attempts dating back to a Feb. 11 game at Philadelphia." One quick note...Conley's 6.4 assists are quite impressive considering the Grizzlies rank dead-last in the NBA (by a wide margin) with just 16.9 assists per game.
Hawks (was, ny, cha, DET)
Al Horford racked up 21 points and a career-high 22 rebounds on Friday, a bright spot in an otherwise dismal week for the Hawks' fantasy owners. To recap: on Monday,
Joe Johnson had zero rebounds, assists, steals or blocks, and
Mike Bibby (flu) went scoreless in 15 minutes. On Wednesday, both Bibby (flu) and
Josh Smith (personal) did not play, though in fairness Johnson,
Al Horford and
Marvin Williams all had nice games. On Friday, the Hawks shot 43% as a team and Bibby, slowed by the flu, again went scoreless. One can only hope that Bibby gets back on track this Sunday, giving his owners some confidence going into a very favorable slate of games. The Bobcats and Pistons are both formidable defensively (giving up an average of 94.4 ppg this season), but the Wizards and Knicks are among the league's worst defenses. The Wizards give up the most three-pointers and second-most assists of any team in the league, and the Knicks give up the second-most rebounds of any team.
Heat (CLE, PHO, tor, cle)
First the good news -- the Suns are giving up 112.6 points to their opponents over the past 10 games. During that same stretch, they are also giving up a league-high 42.7% from downtown. The Raptors 3PT defense has improved recently, but they're still ranked 29th in threes allowed (8.1). Now the bad news -- they face the Cavaliers twice this week. Statistically (and in every other way), the Cavaliers defense is brutally efficient. They give up the fewest points (90.5), second-lowest field goal percentage (42.8%) and second-lowest three-point percentage (33.9%). They also yield the third-fewest rebounds of any team (38.5) and the fourth-fewest assists (19.0). All that to say, think twice before rolling the dice on borderline players (
Michael Beasley,
Jermaine O'Neal,
Udonis Haslem), especially if they don't hit three-pointers.
Mavericks (okc, SA, no, WAS)
There is a chance that
Jason Terry (finger) will return to action as soon as Wednesday, giving him a decent three-game week, but I'd avoid him considering there are no guarantees about playing time or efficiency. At the very least, his impending return means J.J. Barea and
Antoine Wright are about to drop off even further. Use the Mavs' stars --Kidd, Dirk and Josh-- and leave everyone else where you found them.
Nuggets (det, POR, utah, sac)
Nene is back, though not quite where his fantasy owners want him to be -- he came off the bench on Friday for eight points and seven rebounds in 20 minutes. Surely his minutes will increase over the next few games, but hopefully Sunday will show marked improvement...it's not as though
Johan Petro is a long-term threat. Chris Anderson flexed his wings on Friday and blocked seven shots, which is pure platinum in fantasy owners' vaults. I don't claim mathematical certitude, but that is (approximately) equivalent to a player handing out 30.9 assists, grabbing 59.7 rebounds or scoring 145.2 points.
Rockets (TOR, utah, PHO, MEM)
Luis Scola narrowly missed his sixth consecutive double-double on Thursday, by far his longest such streak of the season. A big reason for his consistent success is the absence of
Carl Landry (ankle). Landry is questionable for Saturday, but could easily play limited minutes even if he does return.
Yao Ming cracked 40 minutes on Thursday for just the fourth time this season, and should have his way with the Raptors (who just gave up 45 points to Shaq).
Aaron Brooks probably needs to be started this week, considering he's locked into the starting gig and has been a steady source of threes, assists and even rebounds. Just beware his sketchy 40% shooting.
Spurs (lac, dal, WAS, PHO)
Tim Duncan (knee/quad) should be ready to go for all four games this week, barring a setback. He has tendonosis in his right quad, which is described as a "degenerative condition", but hopefully that's not as scary as it sounds. Manu is still out, so keep him benched until further notice.
Suns (orl, mia, hou, sa)
Let's get business out of the way first.
Steve Nash is questionable for Sunday's game -- it doesn't sound like he'll be out much longer, even if he sits out that game, so owners might be hard-pressed to find a better option next week.
Grant Hill dropped 12 assists in his absence on Friday, as the Suns racked up 133 points against the Raptors. Hill's "nerve bundling" in his foot concerns me, but the Suns are making an effort to get him out of the paint (he had been playing primarily as as if he were a true PF since Amare went down) which should help. Now for the fun part...Shaq scored 45 points? On 20-of-25 shooting? And the Raptors didn't triple-team him?!? Yes, the Diesel was in rare form, fouling out
Andrea Bargnani,
Jake Voskuhl (in under eight minutes) and causing foul trouble for
Chris Bosh. Bosh claimed that Shaq was in violation of the three-second rule most of the night, and he's right, but ultimately the Raptors' coaching staff is to blame. You have to eventually scheme a way to dislodge him from the paint. Anyway, with Amare out of the lineup it's (obviously) safe to keep Shaq active. You've probably read this Shaq quote a dozen times by now, but it's worth repeating. "I think I'm the only player that looks at each and every center and says to myself, 'That's barbecue chicken down there.'"
Thunder (DAL, WAS, no, PHI)
The biggest factor fantasy owners need to consider this week is the impact of
Kevin Durant's ankle injury. So far he's listed as day-to-day, which isn't very revealing. Considering he left the arena on crutches with a protective boot, I'm guessing he misses at least Monday's game vs. the Mavs. Of course I could be completely wrong -- he could make a miraculous recovery and play on Saturday, but it doesn't look promising. If he does miss any time,
Jeff Green and
Russell Westbrook will be leaned on heavily for offense, while
Thabo Sefolosha and
Kyle Weaver should also play increased minutes. We could even have a rare
Damien Wilkins sighting, but he won't have any fantasy relevance. Just keep your eye out for injury updates.
Warriors (min, chi, det, mil)
The impact of four consecutive road games is somewhat muted by the fact that three of their opponents (the Wolves, Bulls and Bucks) are yielding an average of more than 103 points over the past 10 games. Unfortunately, the quality of the competition isn't the most important factor for the Warriors' fantasy prospects this week. Instead, we must consider the murky reasoning behind Don Nelson's decision to arbitrarily bench his veterans for random games.
Jamal Crawford already took his DNP-CD on Friday.
Stephen Jackson is next, on Sunday, so at least those two should be safe for the week ahead.
Andris Biedrins, however, has been ruled out for next Friday's game, and
Corey Maggette will probably (I speculate) sit out either Tuesday or Wednesday. Three games from Maggette is tolerable, and it would be fine from Biedrins as well...the only problem is that Biedrins aggravated his ankle injury on Friday. Check his status this weekend before consulting tea leaves, communing with the ghost of Nellie's sanity and making your decision.
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Three-game teams
Bobcats (CHI, ATL, ny)
Who scores the fewest points of any team in the NBA? Yup, it's still the Bobcats. They shoot 45% from the field and 37% from downtown, both respectable numbers -- the problem is that they average the fourth-fewest possessions of any team (90.7 per game). One promising feature of this schedule is their date with the Knicks, who give up a ton of points (107.9) on high percentage shooting (47.8%). They are one of very few teams with no players injured, so fantasy owners should have a pretty good idea of what to expect.
Bulls (cha, GS, MIL)
New addition
John Salmons has played 30+ minutes in each of the past two games, including a 25-point performance on Friday, and should be a relatively safe option this week.
Brad Miller, on the other hand, hasn't played 25 minutes in a game or recorded a double-double since joining the Bulls. His presence is doing more to hurt
Joakim Noah and
Tyrus Thomas than anything else -- considering their dwindling minutes, both of those players should be used with extreme caution this week.
Tim Thomas is also cutting into Tyrus' minutes, but doesn't himself offer value in average leagues.
Celtics (nj, CLE, ORL)
Paul Pierce's thumb will be sore for a while, he admitted on Friday, but he doesn't expect to miss any games. Keep him active and hope for the best. Meanwhile, KG's injury has opened the door for
Glen Davis to start, but I don't trust Davis further than I can throw him, which is to say that I don't trust him at all. He's averaging 16.0 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.5 assists over the past two games, hitting 58% of his field goals but just 66% of his free throws. I'm not going to talk about Marbury until I absolutely have to...suffice to say, he's not worth using this week unless you're in a very, very deep league.
Clippers (SA, MEM, IND)
The Clippers get three home games this week, but it's not something fantasy owners should be excited about. They average the fourth-fewest points per game at home (93.9) of any team in the league, while their field goal percentage ranks dead-last (43.3%). So much for home-court advantage. A huge part of the problem is
Baron Davis, who has been excoriated by the L.A. media lately, and rightfully so. After signing a five-year, $65 million contract last summer, he has responded with poor effort and statistics, including a career-worst 36.2% shooting. Amazingly, before shooting 6-of-10 against the Celtics last Wednesday, Baron had failed to crack 50% in 62 consecutive games, dating back to last season. (Which you know all too well if you drafted him.)
Marcus Camby is safe to use again,
Eric Gordon should be watched closely (hopefully he'll play on Saturday) and
Al Thornton is probably best left on your bench unless he bounces back with a strong game on Saturday.
Hornets (phi, DAL, OKC)
Chris Paul handed out 20 assists on Friday, one shy of his own franchise record. Not that you needed any incentive to play him in a three-game week, of course. The Hornets don't really offer many fantasy surprises at this point, but two players are worth highlighting.
Tyson Chandler might be playing his best basketball of the season since returning from his sprained ankle. He's averaging 13 points on 68% shooting, 12 rebounds and 0.7 blocks in the past three games. Of course those numbers are dimished by his 9-of-17 free throws, 0.7 assists and 0.0 steals, but you can't expect too much of him.
Rasual Butler is another player having a fine stretch -- his February averages are season-highs in points (14.3), three-pointers (2.0), rebounds (4.5), assists (1.4) and blocks (1.0).
Jazz (HOU, DEN, tor)
The Jazz are a pretty tough bunch to figure out right now.
Carlos Boozer isn't ready to play more than 20 or so minutes, making him an unlikely source of fantasy value next week. His return has had the expected negative impact on Millsap, however, limiting him to a season-low 16:30 on Wednesday. I repeat...a season-low. That's a very bad sign. Then there is
Andrei Kirilenko, who has piled up surprisingly decent numbers in February (11.2 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.4 blocks) despite playing less than 20 minutes per game. At least
Deron Williams and
Mehmet Okur are still sure things.
Knicks (ATL, CHA, nj)
Do not be fooled by
Larry Hughes! He is the NBA equivalent of a knockoff Movado wristwatch -- it works until you get home, at which point the hands fall off. I know there is reason for optimism considering the Knicks' up-tempo offense, and you should feel free to stash him on your bench if he's available, but I wouldn't use him this week just because he had one (admittedly) great game.
The following three-game teams are listed, sans significant commentary, so that you can refer to their schedules.
Magic (PHO, NJ, bos)
Phoenix is giving up a league-high 117.1 points over the past 10 games, including a league-worst 42.7% from downtown.
Pacers (sac, por, lac)
Pistons (DEN, GS, atl)
Rip Hamilton's move into the starting lineup could be just what
Rodney Stuckey needed to get back on track. Stuckey will have a more appropriate off-the-ball counterpart, and should at least have one big game against the defense-optional Warriors. Iverson is having more tests performed on Sunday, so check back periodically for updates.
Raptors (hous, MIA, UTAH)
76ers (NO, mem, okc)
Timberwolves (GS, lal, por)
Trail Blazers (IND, den, MIN)
Two-game teams
Kings (IND, DEN)
Two games is bad news for owners of
Kevin Martin and co., but in reality it's probably a relief for the Kings. After all, fewer games means fewer losses, right? In a sign of just how bad things have become, the Sacramento Bee ran an article on Saturday with the title, "Opening tip: Are the Kings the Worst team of the millenium?" What followed was a rather convincing argument that, yes, they are.
Lakers (MEM, MIN)
Two games makes Kobe, Pau and Lamar the only viable options in average leagues. On the plus side, no team has allowed their opponents to shoot a higher field goal percentage (50.7%) over the past 10 games than the Wolves.
That'll wrap up another edition of
The Week Ahead. This doesn't have any fantasy relevance, but if you haven't seen
Kenyon Martin say
"You know what I'm sayin'" 15 times in under a minute, you're missing out. I can't decide if it's a speech impediment or an art form.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=subHead vAlign=top colSpan=3>Durant (ankle) could miss up to a month </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=vaLabel colSpan=3>Kevin Durant - G/F - OKC - Mar. 1
