Let it Rain
Welcome to an abbreviated version of
The Week Ahead. Well, the column isn't abbreviated but the NBA schedule is, thanks to All-Star weekend. For most fantasy owners this will be a welcome respite -- injured player get a chance to heal and owners get to tweak their lineups for a final charge up the standings. There are only four days with no NBA games, but between the All-Star game, the dunk contest and the 'HORSE' shoot-out, all you junkies can still get your fix.
As for navigating this shortened schedule, there's no magic formula. One-game schedules suddenly aren't crippling (I'd rather have
Al Jefferson for one game than
Nick Collison for two) and at least we're all in the same boat. Just keep in mind that the margin for error is smaller. If you have an injured player, they might not have a chance to 'make up' a DNP on Monday later in the week. The same can be said for matchups -- Indiana plays Cleveland this week, which means 50% of their games will be against the league's best defense. With that, let's examine some schedules in greater detail.
One game -- Timberwolves, Nets, Magic, Jazz
Two games -- Hawks, Celtics, Bobcats, Bulls, Cavs, Mavs, Nuggets, Pistons, Warriors, Rockets, Pacers, Clippers, Lakers, Grizzlies, Heat, Bucks, Hornets, Knicks, Thunder, 76ers, Suns, Blazers, Spurs, Kings, Raptors, Wizards
One game
Timberwolves (TOR)
The Raptors are tied with the Wizards for most three-pointers allowed (8.3), but owners might have a hard time taking advantage of that fact.
Randy Foye leads the Wolves with 1.4 threes per game, but is mired in an awful shooting slump -- over the past eight games he is a combined 44-of-129 (34%) from the field. He also has seven assists vs. 12 turnovers in the past two games, so whether or not you want to use him is a judgement call.
Ryan Gomes is second on the team with 1.2 three per game, but he too is in a slump, having made a mere 8-of-28 shots in the past two games. He is averaging career-lows in field goal percentage (43%) and rebounds (4.4) this season, despite playing a career-high 31+ minutes per game.
Nets (SA)
Ouch. Not only do the Nets get one game this week, it's against one of the league's stingiest defenses. Diagnosing the Spurs defense, a curious fact emerges -- they allow their opponents to shoot 37.6% from downtown (23rd in the league) and 45.7% overall (16th). The reason they allow the sixth-fewest points of any team (94.5 ppg) is because they commit the fewest fouls of any team (18.9) and therefore give up the fewest free throw attempts (19.8) and makes (15.4). That means
Devin Harris (who makes his living at the FT line with 9.0 attempts per game) and
Vince Carter could have rough nights. The first time he faced the Spurs,
Brook Lopez had 15 points on 7-of-17 shooting with eight rebounds -- I'd say the odds of his having a bad game are higher than usual, considering
Tim Duncan has been named to the All-Defensive team during each of his 11 seasons in the NBA.
Jazz (LAL)
The Jazz have two players --
Deron Williams and
Mehmet Okur-- who should probably be started even in a one-game week. Williams has back-to-back 34-point games, so the only reason to bench him is if you're in a shallow league. Okur has been solid lately (and had 20 points, 13 rebounds, two assists and two blocks in his last game vs. L.A.) but his status really depends upon your alternatives. I'd love to recommend
Paul Millsap, the only other Jazz player worth considering in average leagues, but he's been too spotty lately. He's averaging 11.3 points over the past seven games -- part of his struggles are because of foul trouble, but it also looks like his knee is still bothering him. Personally, I'd bench him and hope that the upcoming rest rejuvenates him.
Magic (DEN)
Is
Anthony Johnson worth starting in a one-game week? Nope. He flew off waiver wires when he had 25 points and six 3-pointers in the game after
Jameer Nelson went down, but followed that up with eight points, six rebounds and two assists. He hasn't played 30 minutes in a game since December 3rd, and the arrival of
Tyronn Lue isn't helping matters.
Two games
Bobcats (LAC, WAS)
Let's do like DMX and dial up a fact-list: you're wack, you're twisted...oh wait. Umm, Gerald
Wallace is out until mid-February,
Raja Bell is unlikely to play before the All-Star break and
D.J. Augustin is playing but is still limited by his abdominal injury (mentally, physically or both). Then on Saturday the Bobcats traded
Shannon Brown and
Adam Morrison to the Lakers for
Vladimir Radmanovic (the final denunciation of Morrison's being drafted 3rd overall). I'm not sure whether Radmanovic will be available for Monday's game...if he is, he makes an intriguing play since he'll probably be starting at small forward.
D.J. Augustin should start at shooting guard by default, but Larry Brown said Augustin looks tentative (because of the recent abdominal injury) and I wouldn't gamble on him in such a short week.
Bucks (HOU, IND)
Many teams have been hit hard by injuries this season (Clippers, Jazz, Rockets, Magic, etc.), but the Bucks probably have it worse than anyone.
Michael Redd is done for the season,
Andrew Bogut for at least two months and
Luke Ridnour for at least one month. Quite simply, this team belongs to
Richard Jefferson,
Charlie Villanueva and
Ramon Sessions. I love Sessions (find a fantasy owner who doesn't, since we all fetishize sleepers) but have very little faith in RJ and CV...regardless, the stage is set the rest of the way. For the record, I don't see
Francisco Elson or
Charlie Bell having great value, but Bell is worth owning for at least as long as Ridnour is out.
Hornets (mem, BOS)
The Hornets are a pretty self-explanatory bunch.
Tyson Chandler is injured, so bench him.
David West is healthy, so keep him active.
Peja Stojakovic drained seven 3-pointers on Friday and has 24+ in his past two games, so keep him active.
Rasual Butler and
James Posey are simply all over the place...use them if you dare. That leaves
Chris Paul, who is questionable for Sunday's game. If he plays on Sunday and looks even OK, he obviously should be started. Otherwise, check RW for updates and make an informed decision...either way, I don't think
Antonio Daniels should be bothered with in average leagues.
Pacers (CLE, mil)
The Pacers switched to a small lineup on Friday --featuring
Jarrett Jack and
T.J. Ford in the backcourt and
Troy Murphy at center-- and the result was an upset win over the Magic. Jim O'Brien was, predictably, happy with the results. Even if the Pacers get blown out by the Cavs, which they probably will, the small lineup will probably stay intact as we head into the All-Star break. One thing worth noting is that the last time the Pacers played the Cavs they lost by a score of 73-97...that's their lowest scoring total of the season and 32 points below their season average. So don't be shocked if the offense stalls out. Owners in deep leagues should keep an eye on
Travis Diener...he's done nothing all season, but his toe continues to improve and he could emerge with some value if the Pacers stick with the small lineup.
Danny Granger's sore knee is still a concern, but he dropped 33 points in Friday's game, the second of a back-to-back, and should get some rest during the All-Star break (despite his involvement in two events).
76ers (PHO, MEM)
The post-EB era has begun in Philadelphia...though with any luck it won't last beyond this season. Brand's injury, combined with his ineffective play when healthy, makes him a candidate for 'bust of the year' honors...on the other hand, his absence leaves room for
Thaddeus Young to grow, and gives the rest of the 76ers the freedom to play their favored run-and-gun style without looking over their shoulders. Beyond Young,
Andre Iguodala is probably the biggest beneficiary. He struggled mightily in November, averaging 13.3 points on 41% shooting, but came alive once Brand got injured and is now averaging a robust 17.9 points on 48% shooting. Getting back to
Thaddeus Young -- I'd bench him this week and hope he rediscovers his shot during the break. He is averaging an incredible 2.8 steals during the past four games, but hasn't made 37% of his shots in any those games. He could get hot, but that's a bet I'm not willing to make. Another standout in the post-EB landscape is
Samuel Dalembert -- Sammy attempted 13 shots in each of the past two games, after attempting no more than 11 in any of the previous 46 games. He also had his first 20-rebound game of the season on Thursday, and has at least one block in 14 straight.
Clippers (cha, NY)
The Clippers get a break against a Bobcats team limping into the All-Star break with two of their best players sidelined (
Gerald Wallace and
Raja Bell), another player returning from injury (
D.J. Augustin) and a lineup in flux (goodbye
Adam Morrison and
Shannon Brown, hello
Vladimir Radmanovic). Then they get an even bigger break against the Knicks, who allow the fourth-most points (106.6) and the fourth-highest FG% (47.6%) of any team in the league. The Clippers, already sporting the league's worst field goal percentage (43.1%), are going to need it.
Baron Davis is shooting 31% from the field in his six games since returning from injury. During the same six-game stretch,
Marcus Camby hasn't cracked the 30-minute plateau,
Al Thornton is shooting 39% form the field and they have just one win, against the Grizzlies. The return of
Zach Randolph should help the entire offense (in terms of efficiency), but he and
Eric Gordon (and maybe Camby) are the only players I recommend this week.
Bulls (DET, MIA)
The Bulls went 4-2 on their recent road trip, thanks to games against the Clippers, Kings and short-handed Hornets. The Pistons aren't the defensive juggernaut they once were, but both they and the Heat hold their opponents to sub-45% shooting, placing them among the top-six in the NBA.
Drew Gooden is questionable to play on Saturday, which complicates the roles of
Joakim Noah and
Tyrus Thomas. He will come off the bench inititially, which means there's a ray of hope for Noah and Thomas in their shortened week. Noah has scored in double-figures just six times all season, but four of those games came on the Bulls recent roadtrip. Similarly,
Tyrus Thomas has four double-doubles in the past five games. It's a shame to bench these guys when they're playing their best ball of the season, but that might be the wise choice.
Grizzlies (NO, phi)
We at Rotoworld hyped up
Mike Conley relentlessly following the departure of Marc Iavaroni, and the early returns are encouraging: in the past five games he's averaging 14.0 points, 1.6 threes, 4.2 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 1.6 steals. Those numbers are worthy of a spot on most fantasy rosters, and make him a worthwhile option even in a two-game week.
Marc Gasol continues his up-and-down rookie season, though the return of
Darko Milicic means it'll be mostly 'down' from now on. If you can still trade him, go for it. As for Milicic...his broken knuckle still isn't 100% and he has played less than 15 minutes in each of his two games since returning. He should be limited to mop-up minutes behind Gasol and Darell Arthur, so I wouldn't give him too much thought in average leagues.
Hawks (WAS, det)
The biggest question mark for the Hawks heading into their two-game week is the status of
Joe Johnson and
Mike Bibby. Bibby isn't playing on Saturday and
Joe Johnson is listed as questionable...personally I wouldn't gamble on Bibby (or Johnson, if he's out on Saturday) since the Hawks play unforgiving back-to-back games on Tuesday and Wednesday. It's a shame too, because no team allows more three-pointers (8.3 per game) than the Wizards.
Al Horford (bruised knee) is back, but his production isn't -- so far he's averaging 4.5 points and 5.0 rebounds in less than 30 minutes per game. That leaves Marvin Wiliams and
Josh Smith (and J.J. if he looks good on Saturday) as the Hawks two safest options next week -- Smith is unpredictable and hasn't had a huge all-around game recently, but at least he's blocking shots.
Pistons (chi, atl)
The Pistons have lost four of their past seven games, and it appears
Rasheed Wallace is on the trading block. Hopefully that will inspire him to play hard every night, instead of once or twice a week.
Allen Iverson continues to wallow in mediocrity, posting career-lows in shot attempts (14.7), three-pointers (0.5) and points (17.6). One positive is that Iverson has stellar career scoring averages against the Bulls (28.7, fifth-highest of any opponent) and Hawks (29.0, third-highest).
Antonio McDyess is averaging 31.2 minutes, 7.8 points and 10.6 rebounds over the past five games. He's primarily a rebounding specialist, but this is a good week to use him since both of the Pistons opponents give up at least 42 rebounds per game (Bulls 42.8, Hawks 42.0).
Spurs (nj, tor)
The Spurs hit the three-point Yahtzee this week, facing two of the league's worst teams in 3PT defense (San Antonio already makes the third-most 3-pointers of any team in the league). The Nets (7.7 allowed on 39.9% shooting) and the Wizards (8.3 on 38.9% shooting) should provide a bonanza for
Manu Ginobili, Roger Mason,
Michael Finley and
Matt Bonner, though Manu is probably the only guy worth starting.
That's all I've got this week. Enjoy the All-Star festivities, and don't neglect the fact that Valentines' day is on the 14th -- if you're pinched for ideas, why not go to a theatre to
watch the All-Star game in 3D?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=subHead vAlign=top colSpan=3>Bobcats' Bell leaves with groin injury </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=vaLabel colSpan=3>Raja Bell - G/F - CHA - Feb. 7 
