NBA LINE MOVES

[simpleton]

Let's say it's 12:00 Noon and I love the Miami Heat +14 at the Lakers. Actually, I like the Heat no matter what the line is. Historically speaking, is it better to jump on the Heat at 12 Noon or wait until just before tip off to get the best number.

In other words, what is the general trend for underdogs?. Will lines for dogs tend to come down late, or is there no rhyme or reason to late line movements. I know each game is unique, but would like to know some opinions on how I would fare over the course of a season playing heavy underdogs at Noon versus waiting until minutes before tip off. Thanks!

 

[Fishhead]

Always different factors for each and every game that you must consider. For example, in your above scenario, a majority of the time you might see a late move on the Lakers because....

1. The are the Lakers
2. It could be a TV game
3. Friday or Saturday when more squares bet

More times than not you will see a move on the favorite as opposed to the underdog as a general rule. Check out wagerline and see what team is getting support.

 

[TheGeneral+]

I suck at predicting line moves unless a late TV game on a full day of action where the chasing will begin on the fav most often.

 

[SSI]

i am actively involved in a study on this question but its about 180% opposite of what you guys are thinking. i researched line moves in the nba last year, and was able to come up with something, well ive done some testing this year on line moves and have actually bet with real money the last 2 days off this research, its not a total system but a part that goes into how i pick games.. its 3-0 so far this year with real money.. picking both sides and total, dont care to say much more right now but will openly discuss once 50-100 plays are actually made.. Like i said some of my plays listed in nba and nhl forums are off this but only a very small part.. will have more as the plays occur..

 

[TheGeneral+]

Good work SSI. Systems are very good tactics with data to show support.

 

[SSI]

general ive been around this for 17yrs, i seem to have tried almost everything or atleast back tested alot of things.. ill state this, i am not a systems kinda guy but i will incorporate a small amount of a system into a system and i will use one in the nba from time to time because i find the nba to be my toughest sport to cap (14-8 start though).. Im a grinding, money management kinda guy...... I read in this forum almost daily and a big problem here and for everyone is not in knowing "who to bet but HOW to bet".. took me a good while to learn that, always been able to hit the 55-5-60% mark but incorparting that into money management has led to a very profitable "side" occupation.. too many want to get rich quick and are not content with a "grind em out" style that can lead to profits over and over again.... im rambling on a boring day here in the south.. we were talking about line moves, im sorry..

 

[TheGeneral+]

I think a very good post. money management cannot be stressed enough.

 

[smoothie]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SSI:
i am actively involved in a study on this question but its about 180% opposite of what you guys are thinking. i researched line moves in the nba last year, and was able to come up with something, well ive done some testing this year on line moves and have actually bet with real money the last 2 days off this research, its not a total system but a part that goes into how i pick games.. its 3-0 so far this year with real money.. picking both sides and total, dont care to say much more right now but will openly discuss once 50-100 plays are actually made.. Like i said some of my plays listed in nba and nhl forums are off this but only a very small part.. will have more as the plays occur..<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Telling us that you've found a system that works without explanation is uselss to the rest of us. If you are going to say anything, give us concrete info.