sorry, starting another thread... can't figure out how to find 1) threads i started; 2) threads from long ago in an easy way. right now i'd just be trying to go back many pages in all the entries i've made.
i saw this thesis... matthew palmer NBA hot and cold teams.. thesis is from 2009.. analyzed 6 seasons.... here is his concluding sentence from his summary:
"The results indicate that when the line moves three points or more, betting on the cold team can beat the bookie through repeated use of the strategy over the course of a season"
the model especially likes away teams (56%) and underdogs (54%)... note home teams are a small loser... i don't think he combined away and underdog. would have been interesting...
here's my google search that found the study..... https://www.google.ca/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=O0XBVKjZJquV8Qfsz4GYAw&gws_rd=ssl#q=matt+palmer+thesis+nba
will update the last week and segment as to udog and road.... i am not sure whether he used starting UDOG or ending... shouldn't make a huge difference.
anyway, 3 points is the cutoff now....
i saw this thesis... matthew palmer NBA hot and cold teams.. thesis is from 2009.. analyzed 6 seasons.... here is his concluding sentence from his summary:
"The results indicate that when the line moves three points or more, betting on the cold team can beat the bookie through repeated use of the strategy over the course of a season"
the model especially likes away teams (56%) and underdogs (54%)... note home teams are a small loser... i don't think he combined away and underdog. would have been interesting...
here's my google search that found the study..... https://www.google.ca/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=O0XBVKjZJquV8Qfsz4GYAw&gws_rd=ssl#q=matt+palmer+thesis+nba
will update the last week and segment as to udog and road.... i am not sure whether he used starting UDOG or ending... shouldn't make a huge difference.
anyway, 3 points is the cutoff now....
