NBA Fantasy News 2012/2013

HacheMan · Dec 11, 2012

[h=1]Sleepers via PER, usage rate[/h][h=3]How higher-level stats can help spot second-half fantasy bargains[/h]By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

At this point in the season, the early risers and surprises on the waiver wire (players people like me should have told you to draft) have been picked over. For in-season player improvement, we're primarily left with trades and players who could emerge as second-half fantasy factors.

Whenever gauging a player's potential to outperform his current level of fantasy production later in the season, I look toward two basic areas: efficiency and volume. (And if they're a rookie, but that's a different story).

Ideally, in fantasy, an NBA player will rank high on both sides of the efficiency/volume equation. He'll hit for a high percentage of shots, he won't turn the ball over and he will rack up big stats with a large dose of minutes played and percentage of his team's possessions.

In short? He doesn't waste his touches and he handles the ball a lot. (Basically, he's Kevin Durant. But I don't imagine he's on the wire in many leagues.)

I want to discuss two of my favorite next-level stats: PER and usage rate.

PER (Player Efficiency Rating) is John Hollinger's complex formula that gives a state-of-the-art summation of a player's per-minute statistical production. For the uninitiated, the NBA average PER is 15. A top-40 PER is usually over 20. Your mega-elites will log a PER at or above 25 (LeBron James is over 29 and Kevin Durant is just under 28).

PER is very useful when looking at what a player is capable of delivering in fantasy situations given 25 or more minutes per game. You can obviously own players who are valuable despite a low PER, but the true fantasy elites are almost always PER elites.

There are always some players with high PERs who aren't squarely on the fantasy radar because they lack the other half of the equation: opportunity. PER measures production on a per-minute basis. Take a player with a high PER, give him 20 minutes a night, and you have a guy who's still only living, at best, on Mediterranean Avenue in Fantasyland (unless your name is Eric Bledsoe, more on him in a moment).

On the other hand, you can have a player with a near or below-average PER (below 15) logging 35-plus minutes a night who's still worth owning. It just means he's probably hurting you in the percentage and turnover categories (for example: Monta Ellis, Ty Lawson and Andrea Bargnani).

I want to add one more element to the volume side of the discussion: usage rate, which measures the amount of possessions a player averages per 40 minutes played. It's like PER, a stat that doesn't reflect a player's actual amount of touches because it's not taking actual minutes played into account. It's only extrapolating how many possessions said player would get if he played 40 minutes a night.

Is a certain player counted on to generate offense? Does he dominate possession in a way that projects into heavy volume if said player is given starter's minutes? These are questions usage rate goes a long way toward answering.

You don't need a high usage rate to be a successful fantasy player. Durant is only 16th in the NBA with a usage rate of 28.54. But he's so brutally efficient (27.65 PER) with the touches he gets that he's become the No. 1 player in fantasy.

A high usage rate can help push lower-PER players up the Player Rater rankings. Kobe Bryant has been a pleasant surprise so far in fantasy because he's combined an elite PER (25.55) with the second-highest usage rate in the NBA (32.1) and a high minutes-per-game average (37.4). He's elevating his game because his team needs him. I'm not a Laker enthusiast, but you have to admire a man with that kind of mileage producing like that.

Let's take a look at some players whose usage rate and/or PER point towards a possible breakout.

[h=3]High PER Players[/h]
1. Eric Bledsoe, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (USG 25.2, PER 23.90, 18.6 MPG): Here's a game I play with Bledsoe: Double his stats as to reflect what he'd be averaging with around 35 minutes per game. That would leave you with 20.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.8 3-pointers, 3.2 steals and 1.4 blocks. Basically, he'd be a top-five point guard.

He's still providing value in deep leagues but would need a Chris Paul injury or a trade elsewhere to really start reaping his statistical potential. And I can't see the Clippers trading him for anything less than a lottery pick. I've mentioned this recently, but the blocks and boards from the point guard slot are a rare fantasy commodity. There isn't a better shot-blocking point guard in the NBA than Bledsoe.

2. JaVale McGee, C, Denver Nuggets (USG 21.1, PER 23.67, 19.7 MPG): McGee's last two games sum up his Nuggets career to date. On Friday, he storms to 20 points, 8 rebounds and a block in 30 minutes of extended run. On Sunday, he lays a 16-minute egg with 4 points, 3 rebounds and 3 blocks.

It's refreshing to see McGee be held accountable for his more mercurial flourishes, but you have to figure at some point George Karl has to relent and turn him loose. Until then, he's a blocks specialist and not even a top-20 center (No. 22 on the Player Rater).

3. Tiago Splitter, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs (17.9 USG, PER 21.55, 18.9 MPG): Splitter has been victimized by the too-fluid rotation in the Spurs' frontcourt. Like McGee, Splitter's value seems more tied toward earning his coach's trust than any on-court factors.

Splitter has been getting talked up for years. The Spurs were smart to land him. But he's a free agent next season and it might be best for San Antonio to deal him for value before his possible defection for more playing time next summer. If that happens and he's given starter's minutes, look out.

4. Brandan Wright, PF/C, Dallas Mavericks (USG 15.7, PER 21.16, 18.6 MPG): Give Wright consistent minutes and the production will arrive. Wright's an efficient offensive player (a .643 True Shooting Percentage this season), but he doesn't rebound well enough or play tough enough defense to earn the admiration of NBA coaching staffs.

He's still young (he just turned 25), and there's still time for him to turn it around. With multiple injuries in the Mavericks' frontcourt, Rick Carlisle may have no choice but to start Wright, at least in the short term.

5. Andre Drummond, PF/C, Detroit Pistons (14.6 USG, 20.07 PER, 17.8 MPG): I'm only including one rookie on each side of this list. (I don't want this column to get overwhelmed with rookie projections.) But I have to confess: I've been drooling over Drummond's fantasy potential since the preseason. He's continuing to build up his minutes in Lawrence Frank's rotation and is primed for a nice second half. The fantasy combination of a Drummond/Greg Monroe frontcourt could be numerically devastating. Just, please -- for the love of Dr. Naismith -- don't let this guy near a free throw line (39 percent from the stripe so far this season).

[h=3]High Usage Rate[/h]
1. Jordan Crawford, SG, Washington Wizards (27.1 USG, 17.80 PER, 25.6 MPG): Crawford's poor overall defensive effort has led to his being confined to sixth-man status. But with their point guards dropping like flies, the Wizards could be forced to use Crawford as the starting point guard. That would prove a boon for Crawford's fantasy value.

He's subtly improved his efficiency numbers this season (a career high 17.80 PER), and with John Wall's return looking more and more nebulous (eight weeks, my foot!), Crawford could be starting alongside Bradley Beal in the very near future.

2. Ben Gordon, SG, Charlotte Bobcats (25.3 USG, 18.41 PER, 23.4 MPG): Even back when Gordon was logging starters' minutes, he was streaky. Now, he's strictly a 3-pointer specialist (2.3 made per game). But he's shown enough vintage scoring punch in limited playing time to suggest that an injury in Charlotte's backcourt could lead to a second-half sleeper situation.

3. Andray Blatche, PF/C, Brooklyn Nets (25.1 USG, 24.13, PER, 20.2 MPG): Blatche's recent outburst hasn't been a surprise for us Wizards fans. The potential for Blatche to be a special fantasy player has always been there. It's just been a matter of consistency, hustle and simple desire.

Blatche, in the past, has put it all together in short bursts. There's no reason to trust this hot streak. But he's been saying and doing almost all the right things so far in Brooklyn (maybe stay away from D.C. sports talk radio, Andray). Blatche has flourished since taking over for Brook Lopez five games ago (17.2 PPG, 9.8 rebounds, 2.0 steals). Is this just another tease, or has Blatche finally turned a corner?

4. Nene, PF/C Washington Wizards (22.3 USG, 19.48 PER, 21.0 MPG): Thanks to the minutes limit imposed on him by the Wizards staff, Nene's production is still depressed in the 10-point/5-rebound per game range. But his minutes are starting to edge upward, and all Nene needs to be valuable is 25-27 minutes per night (his career average is 29.5 minutes a game).

His field goal percentage is still off his career number (48 percent versus 56 percent), but the needle is starting to move on his lines.

5. Andrew Nicholson, PF, Orlando Magic (21.0 USG, 18.68 PER, 14.0 MPG): Here's a rookie deep-sleeper special. He's been on my watch list since the preseason, where he flashed some nice Ryan Anderson-lite moments. He's only playing 14 minutes per game for the semi-surprising Magic (and hasn't attempted any 3-pointers), but you'd think his role would expand as the season progresses (and if the Magic fall out of playoff contention).

Nicholson's overstuffed line on Sunday (19 points, 9 rebounds, 4 steals, 3 assists) provides a nice little harbinger of what could be in store in his fantasy future.

HacheMan · Dec 13, 2012

Help in percentages, blocks

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

Last week, the focus of this column shifted from identifying the best available players to those who help in specific categories in order to address team needs. I highlighted methods of identifying needs beyond a quick glimpse at the standings and recognized players capable of helping in 3-pointers, rebounds, assists and steals.

This week it's field goal percentage, free throw percentage and blocks. First, though, let's examine some ways of identifying category-based helpers aside from sorting by leaders in the category for the season:

• If you are going to sort by the statistic, look at their performance over the past seven, past 15 and past 30 days in order to get a broader sense about recent trends and whether or not players are capable of sustaining performance in a category for an extended period of time. Simply looking by season averages limits the scope of your assessment.

• If there are no obvious standouts, take a look at per-minute stats, and if any players are blowing up a category when they're on the court in limited minutes. These players often earn more minutes as the season progresses.

• Targeting out-of-position stats is helpful. This means identifying guards who rebound or block shots, and power forwards or centers who can drain 3s or get assists. This allows your team to gain ground in categories from atypical roster spots for the stat.

• Percentages are tricky. Simply looking at a player's average is deceiving, since the real impact upon your roster comes from the combination of accuracy and frequency of attempts. And since players with high field goal and free throw attempts are typically the type of high-usage guys owned in most leagues, finding impactful waiver additions here is difficult. In general, I look for players to be attempting at least eight field goals or three free throws per game in order for them to affect the standings.

• Furthermore, with respect to field goal percentage, evaluating the merits of a player's high percentage is made easier by examining where they're getting their buckets. Hoopdata.com is spectacular, listing player's percentages and attempts at the rim, from 3 to 10 feet, 11 to 15 feet, 16 to 23 feet and on 3-pointers, and much more. If a player is getting most of his buckets close, it's more likely that his high percentages are sustainable. If he's shooting a high percentage on long twos, the toughest shot to consistently hit at a high percentage, then expect some regression.

[h=3]Field Goal Percentage[/h]
Ed Davis, PF/C, Toronto Raptors (12.2 percent owned): Davis is a career 55.0 percent shooter and, with Andrea Bargnani sidelined indefinitely, he should be in line for more minutes and increased usage, as demonstrated by his 24 points and 12 boards on 11-for-13 shooting in 45 minutes Wednesday night. His stock is skyrocketing, so grab him now: He was owned in just 0.6 percent of leagues Tuesday. More than half of his career attempts have been at the rim, where he's finishing at a 76.1 percent clip this season, and he's also got some upside in rebounds, blocks and steals, where he's averaging 5.8, 0.7 and 0.6, respectively, in just 17.2 minutes per game. Davis also boasts a fantastic 19.7 Player Efficiency Rating, exhibiting the improvements he's made this year. He does his damage around the basket and has nice touch inside, which should allow him to be a significant helper in this category with his increased opportunity.

Jared Dudley, SG/SF, Phoenix Suns (8.3 percent owned): An unheralded statistic to get out of position is high field goal percentage from the guard position. Dudley is a career 47.4 percent shooter and is at 52.0 percent in December on 8.3 shots per game. He's taking fewer 2-point jumpers and more 3-pointers this season, a nice trend for fantasy, as well as making 75 percent of his shots at the rim. Even when he takes long jumpers, he's consistently efficient, as he finished with a 49.0 percent mark last season. It's rare to have a combination of high field goal percentage and 3-pointers made, but over the past 15 days Dudley is shooting 55.4 percent from the floor with 1.8 3s per game. He also played a team-high 43 minutes Wednesday, scoring 15 points on 7-for-14 shooting with nine boards, five assists and three steals, so his stock appears to be on the rise.

Enes Kanter, C, Utah Jazz (0.3 percent owned): Kanter is attempting just 5.3 shots per game, so his 53.4 percent clip doesn't help you tremendously. But this one is all about potential, and he exhibited what he can do if given more minutes in a recent start, scoring 18 points with eight rebounds in 35 minutes. He's a career 50.0 percent shooter and is attempting 56.6 percent of his shots at the rim this season, finishing with a 66.7 percent mark close to the basket. His ability to be efficient close has improved this year as the weight he shed this offseason allows him to get off the ground more quickly, an area of his game that hampered him as a rookie. It'll take extended injuries or a trade for him to get the shot, but he's one of the best speculative adds for this category in the league as he could have significant second-half impact if minutes open up for him to get buckets at the rim.

[h=3]Free Throw Percentage[/h]
Rodney Stuckey, PG/SG, Detroit Pistons (79.7 percent owned): Stuckey breaks my rule of highlighting only widely available players, but he's been dropped in some leagues and is one of the most impactful players in free throw percentage. Last season he was 16th most helpful overall on the Player Rater in free throws, as he shot 83.4 percent on 5.8 attempts per game. This stems from his ability to draw contract with the best with them as well as the fact he struggles to finish when he does, leading to regular trips to the charity stripe for two attempts. He doesn't provide the assists and 3s you want from a point guard, but he does this one thing very well, so if you're looking for a free throw jolt and he was dropped, add Stuckey now.

Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards (25.5 percent owned): Beal should be owned for a variety of reasons: consistent double-digit scoring, his contribution in 3-pointers, his ability to rebound and block shots from the shooting guard position. However, his unsung attribute is his high frequency and accuracy from the stripe. He's yet to be consistent with his attempts, as they seem to depend on how much of an attacking mentality he has game-to-game; in his past six games, he has two with six attempts and two with zero. But as he matures in that aspect I expect the attempts to go up and accuracy to remain excellent, and eventually he'll be one of the better contributors in the league in this category.

Martell Webster, SF, Washington Wizards (0.1 percent owned): His overall fantasy game is ugly, but he'll give you 3s and hit his free throws. He's nailing 82.9 percent of his free throws on 3.4 attempts per game over the past 30 days. He could see an uptick in attempts as he started his first game of the season Friday and is averaging 26.5 minutes this month compared to 21.4 in November.

[h=3]Blocks[/h]
Bismack Biyombo, PF/C, Charlotte Bobcats (12.4 percent owned): He's a dynamic shot-blocker due to his incredible springs and wingspan, evidenced by his career 1.8 blocks per game in 23.0 minutes. His minutes are on the rise, as he's played at least 29 minutes in each of the past five games including 39 minutes Wednesday, and he is averaging 2.0 blocks and 10.3 rebounds per game in four starts. If he can consistently get minutes in the upper-20s, you're looking at 8 or 9 boards and 2-plus blocks per game, which buoys your defensive stats and immediately makes your team competitive in the blocks department.

Francisco Garcia, SG/SF, Sacramento Kings (0.8 percent owned): Garcia has always been one of my favorites , but he can't stay healthy enough to consistently help fantasy teams. He flashed his impressive skill set in a recent stint with Tyreke Evans sidelined, averaging 14.0 points, 3.3 3s, 2.7 blocks and 1.3 steals in three starts. Evans returned Wednesday, but Garcia still started and swatted two shots in 22 minutes. His career 1.0 3s, 0.7 blocks and 0.8 steals illustrates his fantasy potential, as does the fact he averaged 1.4/0.8/0.9 two seasons ago. Last season his block and steal rates were career highs, so despite his age he's still posting excellent defensive statistics. As mentioned, blocks from guards are a prime out-of-position statistic, and Garcia is one of the best guard-eligible players in that area.

Ekpe Udoh, PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks (0.1 percent owned): Like Biyombo, Udoh is a fantastic shot blocker, although he's not as good of a rebounder and doesn't have the opportunity for as many minutes with Larry Sanders, Samuel Dalembert, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, John Henson and the rest of the Bucks' crowded back court. Still, he has at least 2 blocks in six of the past 10 games, has averaged 1.5 blocks per game for his career in just 19.8 minutes and will help your team in swats despite his limited playing time.

HacheMan · Dec 14, 2012

Time to deal Dwight Howard?

By Josh Whitling, Special to ESPN.com

The Knicks beat the Lakers 116-107 Thursday night, marking the Lakers' fourth consecutive loss and sixth in their past seven contests. Dwight Howard had 20 points and seven boards and once again put up decent enough stats to deflect the type of criticism Pau Gasol was receiving before he was sidelined with knee tendinitis. But looking at Howard's numbers closely, his 18.5 points per game and 11.9 rebounds per game are unimpressive compared to his 20.5 and 14.6 from last season, and he's shooting 49.2 percent from the stripe on a career-high 11 attempts per game.

I've never been a fan of his in the fantasy world and had him on my preseason bust list because of those crippling free throws. The fact they are more harmful than ever and that his points and boards are down is disappointing, and if you own him in a roto league I'd shop him if you can get a top-40 player for him. Even if he improves as he adjusts and Steve Nash returns, the damage he inflicts on your free throw percentage -- he currently has a minus-8.24 Player Rater ranking in the category -- simply isn't worth the positive contributions he provides.

[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
• Gerald Henderson is still coming off the bench for the Bobcats, but played a team-high 31 minutes and scored 17 points against the Hawks. The rub with Henderson is that he doesn't provide much other than semi-efficient scoring. He's owned in just 26.3 percent of leagues and is worth owning if you need the scoring, but he's not worth it if you're looking for all-around help.

• Tyson Chandler continued his torrid December, scoring 18 points on a perfect 5 for 5 from the floor. His rebounding has picked up considerably this month, as he's averaging 12.7 boards compared to 8.7 per game in November, and he's the most helpful player on the Player Rater in field goal percentage. He's also ranked 27th overall on the Player Rater, although his terrific contributions have been overshadowed by the Knicks' insane 3-point shooting.

• LaMarcus Aldridge scored 22 points on 10-for-16 shooting and has improved his numbers recently, averaging 22.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.6 steals on 53.8 percent shooting in his past five contests. He's 11th on the Player Rater over the past 15 days, justifying his average draft position of 14.4, and after a slow start in which he shot 44.2 percent from the floor in November, he's back to performing like the top-20 player we expected.

• DeShawn Stevenson returned after missing Wednesday's game with a knee injury and dropped three 3-pointers in 19 minutes from the starting lineup. He's good for absolutely nothing else, but in deep leagues if you need 3s, Stevenson is capable of providing them, the same way the ATM in his kitchen is capable of providing some quick cash if you're strapped.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• With Andrea Bargnani sidelined indefinitely and Kyle Lowry out around 10 days with a triceps injury, Ed Davis should once again shoulder a bulk of the scoring load for the Raptors. He scored 24 points on 11-for-13 shooting with 12 boards on Wednesday and should be added in all leagues, as he's capable of providing efficient scoring, rebounds and blocks.

• Additionally, Jose Calderon once again has tremendous value with Lowry sidelined. In eight starts, he's averaging 12.5 points, 12.3 assists and 2.3 3s this season, and any time Lowry's out, Calderon should be owned and started in every format.

• Brook Lopez is expected to return against the Pistons, so even though he'll likely be limited, be sure to get him back in your lineup as he's a focal point of the Nets' offensive attack.

• Tyreke Evans returned Wednesday, scoring a team-high 17 points off the bench. He should be back in the starting lineup shortly, possibly Friday, and back in your fantasy lineup as well.

• Gordon Hayward is shooting 52.4 percent from downtown this month and should see continued success against a Suns team allowing a league-worst 40.6 percent on 3-pointers this season.

HacheMan · Dec 24, 2012

Resetting rankings on top names

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com
In an effort to avoid the impact that a small sample size could have on the top 130, I try to make most of my major rankings updates near the end of each month. That way I can avoid overreacting to hot or cold streaks and instead focus on long-term trends. As I sat down to update my rankings this week, I noticed a few players I have ranked either too high or too low based on perceptions or their performances in previous seasons. Let's take a look as we overhaul some of the season ranks.

[h=3]The Top 130[/h]"Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses."1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Chris Paul, LAC (4)
4. Russell Westbrook, OKC (5)
5. Kevin Love, MIN (3)
6. Kobe Bryant, LAL (6)
7. James Harden, HOU (7)
8. Kyrie Irving, CLE (8)
9. Serge Ibaka, OKC (9)
10. Nicolas Batum, POR (10)
11. Stephen Curry, GS (12)
12. Carmelo Anthony, NY (11)
13. Marc Gasol, MEM (15)
14. Rajon Rondo, BOS (17)
15. Jrue Holiday, PHI (14)
16. Joakim Noah, CHI (22)
17. Paul George, IND (23)
18. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (18)
19. Damian Lillard, POR (21)
20. Brandon Jennings, MIL (19)
21. Josh Smith, ATL (13)
22. Al Jefferson, UTAH (16)
23. Dwyane Wade, MIA (24)
24. David Lee, GS (34)
25. Anthony Davis, NO (25)
26. Paul Pierce, BOS (29)
27. Deron Williams, BKN (20)
28. Dwight Howard, LAL (28)
29. Zach Randolph, MEM (30)
30. Rudy Gay, MEM (26)
31. Mike Conley, MEM (32)
32. Kemba Walker, CHA (33)
33. Ty Lawson, DEN (27)
34. Steve Nash, LAL (60)
35. Brook Lopez, BKN (35)
36. Ryan Anderson, NO (38)
37. Anderson Varejao, CLE (37)
38. Greg Monroe, DET (36)
39. Tim Duncan, SA (56)
40. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (55)
41. Al Horford, ATL (31)
42. Chris Bosh, MIA (42)
43. Ricky Rubio, MIN (40)
44. Tony Parker, SA (49)
45. Pau Gasol, LAL (54)
46. Blake Griffin, LAC (46)
47. Goran Dragic, PHO (45)
48. Paul Millsap, UTAH (43)
49. Raymond Felton, NY (44)
50. Wesley Matthews, POR (47)
51. Monta Ellis, MIL (41)
52. O.J. Mayo, DAL (48)
53. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (50)
54. Kenneth Faried, DEN (53)
55. Roy Hibbert, IND (51)
56. Kyle Lowry, TOR (52)
57. Luol Deng, CHI (57)
58. George Hill, IND (64)
59. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (58)
60. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (39)
61. Gerald Wallace, BKN (61)
62. Evan Turner, PHI (59)
63. Omer Asik, HOU (62)
64. Klay Thompson, GS (63)
65. Andre Iguodala, DEN (66)
66. Greivis Vasquez, NO (81)
67. Joe Johnson, BKN (67)
68. Brandon Knight, DET (65)
69. J.R. Smith, NY (71)
70. Kevin Martin, OKC (69)
71. Tyson Chandler, NY (72)
72. David West, IND (75)
73. Marcin Gortat, PHO (76)
74. Thaddeus Young, PHI (80)
75. Jeff Teague, ATL (70)
76. Kevin Garnett, BOS (68)
77. Dion Waiters, CLE (77)
78. J.J. Hickson, POR (86)
79. JaVale McGee, DEN (79)
80. Lou Williams, ATL (89)
81. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (87)
82. Carlos Boozer, CHI (78)
83. Larry Sanders, MIL (97)
84. Kawhi Leonard, SA (102)
85. Jeremy Lin, HOU (95)
86. Manu Ginobili, SA (85)
87. Jameer Nelson, ORL (83)
88. Tyreke Evans, SAC (84)
89. John Wall, WSH (74)
90. Jamal Crawford, LAC (88)
91. Marcus Thornton, SAC (90)
92. Arron Afflalo, ORL (91)
93. Amare Stoudemire, NY (92)
94. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (98)
95. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (82)
96. Nene Hilario, WSH (96)
97. Rodney Stuckey, DET (101)
98. Mo Williams, UTAH (73)
99. Chandler Parsons, HOU (99)
100. Jose Calderon, TOR (104)
101. Jarrett Jack, GS (118)
102. Derrick Favors, UTAH (100)
103. Jordan Crawford, WSH (105)
104. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA (112)
105. Metta World Peace, LAL (114)
106. Jared Dudley, PHO (115)
107. Jason Kidd, NY (108)
108. DeAndre Jordan, LAC (94)
109. Eric Gordon, NO (120)
110. J.J. Redick, ORL (110)
111. Andrea Bargnani, TOR (111)
112. Jason Terry, BOS (109)
113. Jason Richardson, PHI (106)
114. Andrew Bynum, PHI (117)
115. Ramon Sessions, CHA (119)
116. Gerald Henderson, CHA (121)
117. Ray Allen, MIA (116)
118. Byron Mullens, CHA (113)
119. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (124)
120. Andre Drummond, DET (130)
121. Bradley Beal, WSH (122)
122. Derrick Rose, CHI (126)
123. Chris Kaman, DAL (103)
124. Shannon Brown, PHO (NR)
125. Robin Lopez, NO (128)
126. Marco Belinelli, CHI (129)
127. Tristan Thompson, CLE (NR)
128. C.J. Miles, CLE (127)
129. Jason Thompson, SAC (NR)
130. Matt Barnes, LAC (NR)

[h=3]Players I've Undervalued[/h]
David Lee, PF,/C, Golden State Warriors: I've never been a huge Lee guy from a fantasy perspective because of his lack of blocks from the power forward/center slot, but not even I can argue against him when he's posting 20.0 points, 11.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 0.9 steals while shooting 53.9 percent from the floor and 81.3 percent from the line this season. In fact, Lee's numbers are almost an exact mirror image of his breakout season with the New York Knicks in 2009-10, when he was a top-20 fantasy player. Lee's success this season is a result of a variety of factors, including his growing rapport with point guard Stephen Curry on the offensive end and a change in philosophy on the defensive end. Head coach Mark Jackson seems to have struck a chord not only with Lee but also with his entire team, and I'm sold on Lee's chances of continuing this level of production for the balance of the season.

Greivis Vasquez, PG, New Orleans Hornets: In fairness to me, I'm pretty sure that everyone except his owners have been underrating Vasquez this season. He may not have the pure physical quickness or ability of some of his point guard counterparts, but he's a gritty player with tremendous court vision. He ranks fifth in the league in assists with 8.7 per game, and the rest of his numbers aren't too shabby either: 12.6 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.1 3-pointers per game. I'd still love to see more steals from a fantasy perspective, but his owners have to be happy about his production thus far, given his late-round draft status.

Tim Duncan, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs: I've been awfully stubborn in my belief that Duncan will begin to slow down at some point this season, but the 36-year-old continues to defy the odds with 17.5 points, 10.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 2.6 blocks in only 30.7 minutes per game. This kind of per-minute production is almost unfathomable at this stage in his career, and I still believe that the lack of minutes will come back to bite his owners in the second half of the season. But he's producing at a top-10 level at the moment and it's high time that I move him into the top 40 in my ranks.

[h=3]Players I've Overvalued[/h]
Josh Smith, PF/SF, Atlanta Hawks: If you're a longtime reader of mine, you may have noticed that I have a tendency to place a significant amount of value on shot-blocking, and there's a perfectly good reason for that: Blocks have been fantasy's most elusive category for quite some time. But things are beginning to change around the NBA, and although blocks are still the game's most scarce category, they aren't as scarce as they once were. Consider that through the first quarter of the season, 22 players are averaging 1.5 blocks, and half of those are averaging 2.0 blocks. That's 11 players with 2-plus blocks per game, folks. Compare that to the number of players who averaged 2-plus swats per game in recent seasons:

2012-13: 11
2011-12: 5
2010-11: 5
2009-10: 5
2008-09: 6
2007-08: 7

Granted, we're still early in the season and looking at a small sample size, but given that there are more big-time shot-blockers in the league, I can no longer justify ranking a guy like Josh Smith in my top 15 when he's really hurting fantasy teams in the percentages, shooting 44.6 percent from the floor and 51.1 percent from the line this season. Don't get me wrong: Smith is still a top-notch fantasy player for his overall contributions of 16.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 2.1 blocks, but he's not a top-15 guy anymore thanks to his poor percentages. It should be noted that blocks are still the most scarce fantasy category, and we should continue to place a premium on the statistic. I won't be downgrading Serge Ibaka, for instance, particularly when he's the only player on the list who's also shooting better than 50 percent from the floor and 80 percent from the free throw line.

DeMarcus Cousins, PF/C, Sacramento Kings: Truth be told, I've been far too high on Cousins for quite a while and now that he has been suspended by the Kings for "unprofessional behavior and conduct detrimental to the team," it's time to admit that he hasn't progressed or matured as much as we thought he might after a brilliant second half last season. He's averaging just 16.6 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 0.6 blocks while shooting only 41.4 percent from the floor. I'm actually less worried about the "indefinite suspension" than I am about his play on the court. He has been a disaster for owners who drafted him in the second or third rounds this year, and he continues to free-fall in the ranks as a result. All of this said, Cousins is still a ridiculous talent, so risk-takers might find this a perfect time to toss out a buy-low offer to frustrated Cousins owners. It's not a bad idea: Just know that he's about as high-risk/high-reward as they come right now.

Monta Ellis, PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks: Even after his offensive outbursts on Friday and Saturday (27 and 37 points, respectively), Ellis is still shooting just 39.8 percent from the field and 20.9 percent from downtown on the season. Sure, he's posting 19.5 points, 5.3 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.7 3-pointers, and he's shooting very well from the line, but Ellis has shown an alarming trend in his 3-point field-goal percentage in recent seasons. After shooting 36.1 percent from downtown in 2010-11, he shot just 30.8 percent last season (including only 26.7 percent with the Bucks) before his 20.9 percent mark this year. Unfortunately, since much of Monta's fantasy value in Golden State was tied to his ability to hit 3s and create steals in bunches, he's trending downward with his 0.7 3-pointers per game this season.

HacheMan · Dec 26, 2012

Real value of Player Rater numbers

By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

As we're all aware -- much as we might like to ignore it -- fantasy basketball is a cold game of numbers. The players on your team accumulate statistical data, and when that data all gets mashed together, you get to see how it looks in comparison to the data accumulated by other teams. Looking at it this way allows you to make roster decisions that can help your team, even if they make no sense in the context of real basketball. Blake Griffin, for example, is better than Nicolas Batum at basketball, but if you have Batum in a fantasy league, and someone offers you Blake Griffin for him straight up, you're probably shrugging and saying you just can't do it.

Ultimately, we probably do end up making these decisions with whatever strange combination of head and heart feels most right to us in the moment; that's OK, and it's what makes fantasy basketball more fun than pure math (unless you really like math, in which case, you're probably reading something other than this column). With this conundrum in mind, though, this week I wanted to point out one of the weaknesses of the Player Rater (a weakness, hopefully, that you can use to your advantage).

Fortunately, the Player Rater does present you with values in each individual category, and these values are a key to understanding why certain players seem to move the needle more than others. Take, for example, the difference between points and assists. The biggest value in the points category -- again, based on per-game numbers -- is Kobe Bryant's 3.86. The biggest value in assists is Rajon Rondo's 5.48. The higher value in assists -- a high standard deviation -- means the values in that category are spread out over a larger range relative to the average. If you think about it intuitively, this makes sense. Everyone scores points in basketball, especially guys who are also in the subset of players commonly owned in fantasy leagues; even guys who are out there for nothing but defense make a basket once in a while. Assists, on the other hand, tend to be more specialized. Even a player who is acknowledged to be a great passer might only rarely pick up an assist; Kevin Garnett, for example, averages just 1.9 per game.

Chuck Hayes, this season, is averaging 1.8 assists per game, which gives him a value of 0.00 on the Player Rater. LeBron James is averaging 6.9 assists for a value of 2.76 on the Player Rater. Linas Kleiza is averaging 7.9 points per game this season for a value of 0.00 on the Player Rater. Kyrie Irving is averaging 22.8 points per game for a value of 2.61 on the Player Rater. Looking at these four facts together, it's clear that in fantasy basketball as it is most commonly played, Kyrie Irving's 22.8 points is actually of slightly less value than LeBron James' 6.9 assists. This isn't how we generally look at basketball. A player who averages 22.8 points per game is generally thought of as an All-Star-level talent in most cases, whereas a player who averages 6.9 assists per game could very well be considered a complementary piece (Greivis Vasquez is averaging 8.7 assists this season).

Using the values on the Player Rater as they are intended -- as a tool to help you in the context of what you are seeing as a fan -- is a great way to take advantage of these sorts of perceptions. By offering multiple complementary pieces for superstar-level talent, and by filling in with high values in categories where you need help, you can shoot up the standings in your league over the coming weeks.

HacheMan · Dec 27, 2012

J.R. Smith steps up; Shelvin Mack starts

By Seth Landman, Special to ESPN.com

With the news that Raymond Felton will miss the next 4-6 weeks because of a fractured pinkie finger, it would make sense to look for someone on the Knicks' roster, but Wednesday night provided no clues as to who will replace Felton's production. Jason Kidd picked up the slack, starting alongside James White in the backcourt, but White was ineffective in 18 minutes, and Pablo Prigioni played just 17 minutes off the bench. For now, I wouldn't pick up either guy. What this will most likely mean, at least in the short term, is more playing time for J.R. Smith, and given that he scored 27 points (on an absurd 27 shots) Wednesday night, that's definitely a good thing for people who have him in fantasy leagues.

[h=3]Looking Back[/h]
[h=4]WEDNESDAY, DEC. 26[/h][h=5]Highlights[/h]Kobe Bryant, Lakers: 40 points (13-for-24 FG, 9-for-11 FT), 6 assists, 2 blocks, 5 3-pointers versus the Nuggets.
Monta Ellis, Bucks: 20 points (7-for-14 FG), 6 rebounds, 7 assists, 6 steals, 3 3-pointers versus the Nets.
Josh Smith, Hawks: 31 points (13-for-25 FG), 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks versus the Pistons.
[h=5]Lowlights[/h]Bradley Beal, Wizards: 2 points (0-for-5 FG), 2 rebounds, 4 assists versus the Cavaliers.
Jeremy Lin, Rockets: 8 points (3-for-9 FG), 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal versus the Timberwolves.
Nikola Pekovic, Timberwolves: 2 points (1-for-7 FG), 7 rebounds versus the Rockets.


• There isn't much to note here in Shelvin Mack's debut as the starting point guard for the Wizards other than the fact that it happened; he finished with just six points in 29 minutes. But both of his scores were on 3-pointers, and he did manage to rack up 7 assists as well. In deep leagues, he's immediately relevant simply because he's the starting point guard on an NBA roster, even if his position there is likely tenuous at best. In four D-League games for the Maine Red Claws, Mack was shooting 39 percent from long range, so between the assists and the 3s, there might actually be some real potential here, but only if you're desperate for point guard production (and, of course, only until John Wall comes back).

• Hakim Warrick started for the Bobcats in their loss to the Heat, and he finished with 18 points and nine rebounds, which would be more impressive if it didn't take him 38 minutes to get those numbers. With Byron Mullens out of the lineup, it's possible Warrick will get regular minutes in the interim. He always has been able to score, and he generally shoots for a high percentage in doing so. That said, we've been here before with Warrick, so don't get your hopes up.

• Double-overtime games can make for strange numbers, so don't put too much stock in the fact that Will Bynum threw up 31 points in 36 minutes for the Pistons in their loss to the Hawks. This is just a case of the bench having a really good night, and going forward, Bynum is unlikely to get much more than the 15 minutes per game he's averaging.

• Ersan Ilyasova continues to put up big numbers on occasion. He had a great line Wednesday in 27 minutes off the bench in the Bucks' big win over the Nets, finishing with 17 points (4-for-7 FG, 8-for-8 FT), 11 rebounds, four assists and three steals. His previous few games had all been terrible, but he has had outbursts like this from time to time this season. He's just too talented to give up on, as we saw down the stretch last season.

• With Jason Richardson out because of a back injury, Dorell Wright found his stroke again after losing it for a couple of games. Wright started for the 76ers and finished with 28 points, including five 3s, in 35 minutes. As a starter this season, he's averaging 15.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 3.0 3s, and he has been a great fantasy player in the past, so he's definitely worth picking up if he's still available in your league.

[h=3]Looking Ahead[/h]
• O.J. Mayo is questionable for the Mavericks for Thursday night's game against the Thunder due to flu-like symptoms. The last time the Mavs went out, they got it handed to them by the Spurs, and Mayo had a terrible game. That's all the more reason to see whether you have any other options for Thursday night.

• In that same game, make sure you play Chris Kaman. Yes, he has struggled a bit recently, but the Thunder have a propensity to give up some decent production to opposing centers, and without Mayo, Kaman is likely to be the focus of the offense while Dirk Nowitzki continues to get his feet under him.

• I'm also expecting a good night out of DeAndre Jordan in his matchup against the Celtics. The C's have size on the front line, and they have athleticism, too, but aside from Kevin Garnett, they don't really have those two things in the same player. Jordan is big and fast, and the Celtics are second-to-last in the league this season in rebound rate. That's a bad combination, and Jordan should be able to take advantage.

[h=3]Fastbreak Player of the Night[/h]
Well, the guys to go with here are Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook; both have big games almost every time out, and Durant is the best fantasy option in the league by a long shot. However, if you're looking at the game between the Celtics and the Clippers, take a look at Paul Pierce. In his trips to LA to face the Clippers over the past two seasons, he's averaging 24.5 points and six rebounds, and after a quiet game against the Nets, he'll seek to recapture the mojo he had while racking up 75 points over the previous two contests.

HacheMan · Dec 27, 2012

Raymond Felton may need surgery

ESPN.com news services

New York Knicks point guard Raymond Felton said Wednesday night that he expects to miss four to six weeks with a fractured finger, but he stressed the injury won't end his season.

[h=4]Knicks With Felton On/Off Court[/h]

The Knicks have been one of the NBA's most efficient offenses this season, but they could see a drop-off without Raymond Felton on the floor at all.

	On	Off
Pace	94.8	91.4
FG pct.	45.4	43.4
FTA	23.2<<	16.7<<
Pts per 100 poss.	111.9	103.1
>>Per 48 minutes -- ESPN Stats & Information

"This is not a season-ending injury," Felton told reporters in Phoenix, according to Newsday. "It's something that will last four to six weeks at the most."
Felton broke his right pinkie finger in the third quarter of the Knicks' loss to the Lakers on Christmas Day when he and Steve Nash dived for a loose ball.
X-rays on Felton's right fifth finger revealed the fracture. Felton won't be accompanying the team to Sacramento for their Friday night game against the Kings. He's flying back to New York City on Thursday to see a doctor to determine if surgery is required.
"I may need surgery," Felton told reporters, according to the New York Post. "I got to do what's best for my hand so I can get back and help this team."
Wednesday's game against the Suns was Felton's first missed game of the season. Jason Kidd started in Felton's absence and scored 23 points with eight assists and six rebounds in 31 minutes. The 39-year-old veteran made 5 of his 8 3-point attempts.

[h=4]Knicks Blog[/h]

Looking for more Knicks news? ESPNNewYork.com has you covered. Blog »<!--
25 Greatest Knicks

-->

The Knicks improved to 21-8 with their 99-97 victory at Phoenix.
"We just have to go back and assess it and see where we are and go from there, but again, like I said, injuries occur," Knicks coach Mike Woodson said. "Key guys get banged up here and there, and we have enough guys on our team that guys just got to step up and play until guys get back. That's how it's got to be."
Felton, 28, is averaging 15.8 points (second on the team) and leads the Knicks with 6.3 assists per game.

HacheMan · Dec 30, 2012

Randolph, Lillard among best Fastbreak Week 10 options

By Tom Carpenter
ESPN.com

Week 9's schedule made things difficult for all teams involved in points leagues that set weekly lineups, as we do in the Fastbreak salary-cap game, because there were no games on Christmas Eve. Fortunately, the NBA doesn't take a hiatus for the New Year's celebrations during Week 10, as six games are slated for New Year's Eve and six more will tip off on New Year's Day. That means that there are plenty of teams that play four times this week and only the Golden State Warriors are limited to a two-game slate.
It always pays to look ahead a bit when choosing players for the Fastbreak game, because a friendly long-term schedule can allow you to lock in the right player at his current market value for several weeks. For instance, the Atlanta Hawks, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder not only play four times this week, but they are entering a stretch of four consecutive four-game weeks. Obviously, that makes Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden must-play options if you can afford them.
While those teams have enticing long-term schedules, the same can't be said for a number of other squads. The Detroit Pistons are in the midst of what may be the lightest stretch of games in the Association this season; they played three times last week, thrice again this week, and they follow that up with back-to-back two-game weeks. Things aren't a lot better for the Warriors, who follow up their two-game Week 10 stretch with back-to-back three-game weeks.
Other teams with long-term schedule roadblocks include the Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz, all of which play just twice in Week 12. The New York Knicks also have a funky schedule leading up to the All-Star break (3, 4, 1, 4, 3, 4, 1), which makes Carmelo Anthony an inconsistent option.
As usual, I focus on the Fastbreak salary-cap game here, but these schedule anomalies -- both good and bad -- are important to all weekly head-to-head points leagues. Keep them in mind when looking at trades, because an extra game or two could give you that extra win or two to propel you into the playoffs.
Guards
George Hill (9.3), Indiana Pacers: Teammate -- and fellow George -- Paul George is a more reliable option and carries more upside, but he will also cost you exactly $1 million more this week. Over the course of the season thus far, George is averaging nearly two more FB-ppg than Hill, but over their past six games, Hill is averaging an impressive 23.2 FB-ppg – basically the same as George's 23.5 FB-ppg. With four games on their platter in Week 10, both are good plays, but Hill is by far the better value.
Jeremy Lin (9.1), Houston Rockets and Kevin Martin (9.1), Oklahoma City Thunder: Both of these $9.1 million options have had bumps in the road lately -- Lin tanked Wednesday with a zero-point Fastbreak performance, and Martin was recently slowed by a quadriceps injury -- but each of them has a friendly four-game schedule in Week 10 and is capable of busting out some big games. Lin's Rockets face the Atlanta Hawks, New Orleans Hornets, Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers, while Martin's Thunder squad takes on the Phoenix Suns, Brooklyn Nets, Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors. Plus, as noted above, their heavy schedules the next month make them quality long-term investments, too.
Damian Lillard (8.0), Portland Trail Blazers: I have no problem coming back to this fountain of youth in the Fastbreak game. Because he is a rookie, his initial market value was so low that he should remain a comparative value the rest of the way compared to other studly stat producers. He's one of only 13 players to average at least 19.9 Fastbreak points per game, yet 64 players will cost you more than the $8 million it will take to sign Lillard this week. For a direct comparison, consider that Dwyane Wade is averaging just 0.1 more Fastbreak points per game (20.0) than Lillard but will take up $2.1 million more of your salary cap ($10.1 million). Lillard has a four-game slate in Week 10 against beatable competition: New York Knicks, Toronto Raptors, Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Forwards
Zach Randolph (10.3), Memphis Grizzlies: To me, Z-Bo is the quintessential example of how fantasy values differ between rotisserie leagues and points leagues. It's not that he doesn't have value in roto leagues, but any player who fails to contribute anything of note in 3s, steals or blocks will make it that much more difficult for you to compete for a title. Consider how close your race in any of those categories might be by season's end and how even a half a block more per game (41 blocks over the course of a full season) could move you up or down several points in that category. On the other hand, in points leagues, which categories a player excels in matters little compared to the overall mass of production he pieces together. Z-Bo is averaging 17.1 ppg, 12.6 rpg and has hit exactly half of his 14.0 field goal attempts per game, which makes him a monster in points leagues. Consider that he is 19th on the Player Rater (based on averages) among forwards, yet he is the sixth-most productive forward in the Fastbreak game. As I mentioned earlier, he plays four games each of the next four weeks, which makes him an excellent long-term investment.
DeMarcus Cousins (9.9), Sacramento Kings: I like Serge Ibaka ($10.1 million) better as a long-term play in this price range due to the Thunder's aforementioned 4x4 schedule the next month, but I'm intrigued by Cousins as a high-upside Week 10 option. Of course, that presumes that coach Keith Smart reinstates the big man after their most recent run-in that led to an indefinite suspension. If an angry Cousins is turned loose with full starter's minutes next week in four road games against the likes of the Detroit Pistons, Cleveland Cavaliers, Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets, the sky is the limit as to what he could do for your Fastbreak team.
J.J. Hickson (9.4), Portland Trail Blazers: So you were riding the extremely cheap double-double machine that was Anderson Varejao before he was felled by a knee injury? Well, meet the "new Anderson Varejao." Entering Friday's tilt with the Los Angeles Lakers, Hickson has posted nine straight double-doubles. Over that same stretch, he tallied at least 20 points in all but one game (18 on Sunday). Even better, Hickson will cost you $100K less than Varejao would have at $9.5 million. All four of the Blazers' games next week are on the road, but he should be able to keep up his recent pace against the likes of the Knicks, Raptors, Grizzlies and Timberwolves.
Center
Al Horford (9.9), Atlanta Hawks: Inconsistency has been the only thing holding Horford back from being a genuine Fastbreak stud this season. Consider his past seven games, when he tallied semi-useless games of 13, 13, 15 and 10 as well as big games of 20, 29 and 26. It's hard to explain his sudden and dramatic dip in free-throw production -- career average of 74.5 percent, two previous seasons of at least 78.9 percent, yet just 57.6 percent in 25 games this season -- but he is still knocking down 52.3 percent of a career-high 13.2 field goal attempts per game. He's also averaging career-highs in scoring (15.7 ppg) and rebounding (9.8) as well as an impressive 3.2 apg. If he can find that elusive consistency, he could be a great value play over the next month due to that 4x4 schedule.
Omer Asik (8.5), Houston Rockets: Asik has really picked up his production over the four games heading into Friday's battle with the San Antonio Spurs, averaging a whopping 27 FB-ppg. Now, he gets a Week 10 stretch of games against weak competition (ATL, NO, MIL, CLE) and a long-term stretch of four consecutive four-game weeks. It's hard to beat the short- and long-term upside he offers at this cheap price.

HacheMan · Dec 31, 2012

Williams, Jack, Leonard rising

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

With another month coming to a close, it's time for another game of fun with numbers, this time focusing on recent trends and splits for the month of December.

[h=3]The Top 130[/h]"Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses."1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Chris Paul, LAC (3)
4. Russell Westbrook, OKC (4)
5. Kevin Love, MIN (5)
6. Kobe Bryant, LAL (6)
7. James Harden, HOU (7)
8. Kyrie Irving, CLE (8)
9. Serge Ibaka, OKC (9)
10. Nicolas Batum, POR (10)
11. Stephen Curry, GS (11)
12. Carmelo Anthony, NY (12)
13. Marc Gasol, MEM (13)
14. Rajon Rondo, BOS (14)
15. Joakim Noah, CHI (16)
16. Paul George, IND (17)
17. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (18)
18. Jrue Holiday, PHI (15)
19. Damian Lillard, POR (19)
20. Brandon Jennings, MIL (20)
21. Josh Smith, ATL (21)
22. Al Jefferson, UTAH (22)
23. Dwyane Wade, MIA (23)
24. David Lee, GS (24)
25. Anthony Davis, NO (25)
26. Paul Pierce, BOS (26)
27. Deron Williams, BKN (27)
28. Dwight Howard, LAL (28)
29. Zach Randolph, MEM (29)
30. Rudy Gay, MEM (30)
31. Mike Conley, MEM (31)
32. Kemba Walker, CHA (32)
33. Ty Lawson, DEN (33)
34. Steve Nash, LAL (34)
35. Brook Lopez, BKN (35)
36. Ryan Anderson, NO (36)
37. Anderson Varejao, CLE (37)
38. Greg Monroe, DET (38)
39. Tim Duncan, SA (39)
40. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (40)
41. Al Horford, ATL (41)
42. Chris Bosh, MIA (42)
43. Blake Griffin, LAC (46)
44. Tony Parker, SA (44)
45. Pau Gasol, LAL (45)
46. Monta Ellis, MIL (51)
47. Ricky Rubio, MIN (43)
48. Goran Dragic, PHO (47)
49. O.J. Mayo, DAL (52)
50. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (53)
51. Kenneth Faried, DEN (54)
52. Wesley Matthews, POR (50)
53. Roy Hibbert, IND (55)
54. Kyle Lowry, TOR (56)
55. Paul Millsap, UTAH (48)
56. Luol Deng, CHI (57)
57. George Hill, IND (58)
58. Klay Thompson, GS (64)
59. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (59)
60. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (60)
61. Gerald Wallace, BKN (61)
62. Evan Turner, PHI (62)
63. Omer Asik, HOU (63)
64. Andre Iguodala, DEN (65)
65. Greivis Vasquez, NO (66)
66. Joe Johnson, BKN (67)
67. Brandon Knight, DET (68)
68. J.R. Smith, NY (69)
69. Lou Williams, ATL (80)
70. Kevin Martin, OKC (70)
71. Larry Sanders, MIL (83)
72. Eric Gordon, NO (109)
73. Tyson Chandler, NY (71)
74. Kawhi Leonard, SA (84)
75. David West, IND (72)
76. Marcin Gortat, PHO (73)
77. Thaddeus Young, PHI (74)
78. Jeff Teague, ATL (75)
79. Kevin Garnett, BOS (76)
80. Jeremy Lin, HOU (85)
81. J.J. Hickson, POR (78)
82. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (81)
83. Carlos Boozer, CHI (82)
84. Manu Ginobili, SA (86)
85. Dion Waiters, CLE (77)
86. Jameer Nelson, ORL (87)
87. JaVale McGee, DEN (79)
88. Tyreke Evans, SAC (88)
89. John Wall, WSH (89)
90. Jamal Crawford, LAC (90)
91. Jarrett Jack, GS (101)
92. Marcus Thornton, SAC (91)
93. Arron Afflalo, ORL (92)
94. Amare Stoudemire, NY (93)
95. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (94)
96. Jason Kidd, NY (107)
97. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (95)
98. Nene Hilario, WSH (96)
99. Jared Dudley, PHO (106)
100. Rodney Stuckey, DET (97)
101. Raymond Felton, NY (49)
102. Chandler Parsons, HOU (99)
103. Jose Calderon, TOR (100)
104. Derrick Favors, UTAH (102)
105. Jordan Crawford, WSH (103)
106. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA (104)
107. Metta World Peace, LAL (105)
108. DeAndre Jordan, LAC (108)
109. Mo Williams, UTAH (98)
110. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (119)
111. J.J. Redick, ORL (110)
112. Andre Drummond, DET (120)
113. Jason Terry, BOS (112)
114. Andrea Bargnani, TOR (111)
115. Robin Lopez, NO (125)
116. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (NR)
117. Andrew Bynum, PHI (114)
118. Ramon Sessions, CHA (115)
119. Gerald Henderson, CHA (116)
120. Ray Allen, MIA (117)
121. Shannon Brown, PHO (124)
122. Tristan Thompson, CLE (127)
123. Darren Collison, DAL (NR)
124. Derrick Rose, CHI (122)
125. Chris Kaman, DAL (123)
126. Marco Belinelli, CHI (126)
127. Matt Barnes, LAC (130)
128. Kyle Korver, ATL (NR)
129. Kosta Koufos, DEN (NR)
130. C.J. Miles, CLE (128)

5.3: Three-point attempts for the Atlanta Hawks' new starting shooting guard, Louis Williams, in the month of December. Williams has always been one of my favorite fantasy players due to his incredible per-minute production as a bench player, and now fantasy owners are going to get a chance to see what he can do with starter's minutes. Lou has averaged 15.7 points, 4.3 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 3-pointers in 41 starts over the course of his career, but I have a feeling he'll be even better than that in Atlanta.

4.0: Steals per 48 minutes for San Antonio Spurs forward and defensive extraordinaire, Kawhi Leonard. Outside of the steals, Leonard's stats don't look like much at first glance: 10.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.3 steals, 1.0 3-pointers, but they're much more impressive when you consider his percentages: 49.0 percent from the floor and 90.9 percent from the line. A plus rebounder and 3-point shooter, Kawhi is more valuable than many might think, particularly if (when) his minutes start to increase.

1.5: Steals per game for Blake Griffin after averaging just 0.8 per game in each of his first two seasons. Blake has had an interesting fantasy season thus far. His steals and free throw percentage (63.9) are up, but his points (18.2) and rebounds (8.9) are way down, mostly due to the fact that his minutes (32.3) are down as well. Credit the Clips' deep bench for Griffin's relative lack of minutes, but I'd actually argue that this version of Blake - the one who creates steals and shoots free throws at a semi-respectable rate - is more valuable than the one who put up 20/10 with no steals and shot 52.1 percent from the line.

30.3: Minutes per game for Golden State Warriors guard Jarrett Jack in December. I liked Jack as a late-round or deeper-league pickup at the beginning of the season, mostly because of teammate Stephen Curry's injury history, but he's turned out to be a veteran leader off the bench for the upstart Warriors. Jack is one of the more underrated fantasy options at the moment, averaging 15.5 points, 5.8 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.7 3-pointers this month.

4.0: Offensive rebounds per game for J.J. Hickson in December. Hickson ranks fourth in the league in double-doubles with 17 and is averaging 13.6 points, 11.4 rebounds and 0.8 blocks per game this month. Hickson's overall value will continue to be capped due to his lack of blocks and poor free throw shooting, but he's still been a pleasant surprise in the Portland Trail Blazers' frontcourt.

18.5: Minutes per game for Ricky Rubio since his return from knee surgery. As expected, the Minnesota Timberwolves are taking it slow with their prized point guard, limiting his minutes in the early going. Expect his minutes to slowly start climbing into the high 20s shortly after the new year, which makes him a terrific buy-low target given his solid per-minute production of 4.0 assists and 1.2 steals per game.

0.4: Steals per game for Joe Johnson in December. JJ has never been a huge steal artist, but he did average over a steal per game for seven consecutive seasons early in his career. Still, he averaged just 0.7 in 2010-11 and 0.8 in 2011-12, so his lack of steals is becoming an alarming trend. The new and not-so-improved JJ has become mostly a shooter in recent seasons. Averaging 16.8 points, 3.6 assists, 0.6 steals and 2.0 3-pointers, Johnson is a solid fantasy shooting guard, but offers little statistical diversity at this stage of his career.

2.6: Three-pointers per game for 39-year-old Jason Kidd in December. Since he doesn't score much, Kidd is often overlooked in fantasy leagues, but there are few who can offer the versatile 9.9 points, 5.4 boards, 4.8 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.1 3-pointers he's been averaging this month. Given how well the New York Knicks have played thanks to Kidd's veteran leadership, we can expect him to remain fantasy-relevant with around 30 minutes per game going forward.

22.2: Minutes per game for Detroit Pistons rookie Andre Drummond, up from 17.3 in November. The increase in playing time is significant, as Drummond has posted huge per-minute numbers early in his rookie season. With 8.0 points, 8.3 boards, 0.9 steals and 1.8 blocks this month, Drummond would have major value if he were able to secure 30-plus minutes per night. And with the 10-22 Pistons struggling, we should expect them to cut Drummond loose in the second half of the season.

4.1: Free throw attempts per game for New Orleans Hornets rookie Anthony Davis who is shooting 84.8 percent from the line on the year. We knew Davis would be an immediate impact player on the defensive end but how many of us thought he'd be such an efficient offensive player this early in his career? With season averages of 15.1 points, 8.4 boards, 1.2 steals and 1.9 blocks while shooting 50.0 percent from the floor, Davis has not disappointed after coming in with high expectations. That said, let's keep a close eye on his shot attempts now that Eric Gordon is back in the lineup.

11.9: Rebounds per game for Nikola Vucevic in December. Vucevic has averaged 11.9 points and 1.1 blocks this month to go along with the impressive rebounding numbers and has been an undervalued fantasy option for a better portion of the season. Vucevic should have continued success this season, particularly while Glen Davis recovers from a shoulder injury.

110: Three-point attempts for Warriors second year guard Klay Thompson in December. Thompson has put together a great month with 16.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.3 steals and a ridiculous 3.3 3-pointers per game. Granted, those numbers are a bit empty with few assists and a 41.3 shooting percentage from the floor, but Thompson is dominating the 3-point category, and he's even adding in some steals this year. Look for Thompson to continue to provide points, steals and 3-pointers while leaving some to be desired from the remaining categories.

HacheMan · Dec 31, 2012

[h=1]Kevin Durant's passing interest[/h][h=3]KD dishes more than ever; Tony Parker is shooting it better than ever[/h]By Joe Kaiser | ESPN Insider

Editor's note: This is Insider's weekly series that identifies and analyzes tendencies or trends exhibited by five players.

Some of the top names around the NBA are doing things on the court this season we haven't seen them do before, for better and for worse.

It might seem easy to see the shooting improvements Jimmer Fredette has made from his rookie season to this year, for example, or impressive amount of assists Greivis Vasquez is racking up in New Orleans with guys like Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis around him. But other trends aren't so easy to spot, and that's why we're here -- to unearth them, to bring them to your attention and to speculate on what it could mean going forward.

In the final Trend Watch of 2012, we delve deeper into the development of one of the game's top players, look closer at two point guards going in different directions and highlight a pair of big men who are putting up some of the best numbers of their career.

[h=3]Kevin Durant | PF | Oklahoma City Thunder[/h]
Trend: Creating more opportunities for others
<offer>
The 24-year-old Durant is having another MVP-caliber go of it in his sixth season in the league, and the special thing about Durant is his ability to make incremental improvements in virtually every area of the game, even though he's already such an elite talent.

<center>Durant</center>

If the season ended today, he'd set career highs in both field goal percentage (51.6) and free throw percentage (90.3). His rebound rate (12) would also be a personal best. As for his biggest improvement? That could very well be his ability to get others involved.

Last season, Durant was credited with an assist on 11.6 percent of his possessions -- the best assist ratio of his career and only the second time in five seasons that he hit double figures. So far this seasons, he's assisting on 14.1 percent of his possessions and averaging a career-high 4.2 assists per 40 minutes.

Part of this could be due to the tremendous efficiency of first-year Thunder shooting guard Kevin Martin, who has a knack for finishing his teammates' assists. But any way you look at it, Durant's value on the court and in fantasy basketball leagues has never been higher.

[h=3]Tony Parker | PG | San Antonio Spurs[/h]
Trend: Shooting better and turning it over less

Parker may seem like the oldest 30-year-old in the NBA (probably because he's been such an important player for one of the league's best teams for over a decade now), but that doesn't mean he's slowing down. Not even a little.

<center>Parker</center>

In fact, Parker is shooting as well as he has at any point in his career. Entering Monday, his true shooting percentage of 57.6 is better than any previous season other than one (2005-06), and he's even become very good at free throws and 3-pointers, two areas of weakness throughout his career. His 40 percent 3-point shooting and 83 percent free throw shooting would both be career highs if they stand up for the remainder of the season.

Parker is valuing the basketball more than any other time in his career, with a turnover coming on only 8.2 percent of his possessions. He's been under 10 percent only three other times in his brilliant career with the Spurs.

All these numbers do is further illustrate how important it is that Parker remains injury-free throughout the rest of the season if the Spurs want to have a shot at knocking off teams like Oklahoma City or Miami in a run to another title.

[h=3]Mike Conley | PG | Memphis Grizzlies[/h]
Trend: Becoming more turnover-prone

John Hollinger, the longtime writer at ESPN who brought deeper basketball stats to the mainstream, took over as Memphis' vice president of basketball operations on Dec. 13. A day later, Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley went 5-for-14 from the field and turned it over five times in a loss at Denver.

<center>Conley</center>

Since that night, the 25-year-old Conley has continued to struggle mightily from the field, but -- whether by coincidence or otherwise -- has started to take much better care of the ball. After averaging 3.1 TOs through the team's first 20 games, he's had only 10 in the last seven contests.

Yet even if you factor in this recent improvement, Conley's tendency to turn the ball over this season has been alarmingly high compared to 2011-12. Conley turned it over on only 9.7 percent of his possessions last season, a career best, but he's seen that number rise all the way to 12.8 percent in 2012-13, which would be a career worst if the season ended today.

Making matters a little more troubling is that the Grizzlies' young backup options (Jerryd Bayless, Tony Wroten and Josh Selby) are all even more turnover-prone, which could be something Hollinger and company will have to address in the future.

[h=3]Nene | C | Washington Wizards[/h]
Trend: Racking up more points ... and assists

Nene's minutes continue to be monitored and somewhat limited as he works his way back from plantar fasciitis, but when he's on the court, the offense is going through him at a frequency unmatched at any other point in his career. In fact, his usage rate of 24.4 is currently the 28th highest in the league, ahead of guys like Deron Williams, Rudy Gay, Stephen Curry and Tim Duncan.

<center>Nenê</center>

This could be something to watch as Washington starts to extend his minutes a little more on the court, because he's putting up points and assists at the highest rate in his career with the lowly Wizards this season.

Nene never scored more than 19.3 points per 40 minutes in any of his previous 10 seasons in the league. He's up to 23 so far this season. And he never recorded more than 2.9 assists per 40 minutes over the course of any earlier season. That's up to 4.6 in 2012-13.

These are a few areas where Nene is an under-the-radar value, especially now that he's in the Wizards' starting lineup and consistently playing at least 25 minutes a night over the last six games.

[h=3]Andray Blatche | C | Brooklyn Nets[/h]
Trend: Dominant on the boards

Much has been made of the tremendous value Blatche has been to the Nets so far this season after flaming out and being an eventual amnesty casualty in Washington. Would you believe it if we told you that his Player Efficiency Rating currently ranks No. 12 in the NBA? Well, at 22.85, it does -- right ahead of Dwyane Wade, Parker and Russell Westbrook.

<center>Blatche</center>

Where Blatche creates the most value is on the glass, which is a bit ironic considering that Brooklyn already has a couple of guys in Kris Humphries and Reggie Evans who earn their paychecks by pulling down rebounds.

Consider this: Blatche is currently rebounding 16.5 percent of rebound opportunities, and he was never higher than 13.8 in any of the four previous seasons in Washington. We have to believe that if Blatche continues to play this well for the remainder of the season, it could mean another big payday ahead for the 6-foot-11 free agent-to-be who, believe it or not, is only 26</offer>

HacheMan · Jan 3, 2013

Improving those bench options

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

As the new year commences, resolve to avoid the primary culprit of fantasy hoops mediocrity that seeps into leagues this time of year: complacency.

Now that the luster of a new season has dimmed and the novelty of your team has worn off, many fantasy owners stop paying their teams the daily attention needed to ensure the best chance of victory. This applies to daily roster moves and especially waiver-wire acquisitions. It's easy to look at your starting roster and be lazy about cultivating the best bench possible, but boosting that team depth is the best way to maximize your team's overall value and prospects of winning down the stretch.

Analyze the players with the lowest value on your team and compare them directly to the options available on the waiver wire. Even if you haven't needed to change up your bench for quite some time, making sure the 13th player on your roster is the best 13th player possible helps in a variety of ways. With trades, it allows you to ship off more players than you receive and compensate for the loss of depth effectively. It also safeguards against injuries, provides options if you're attempting to make up ground in a specific category and allows high-upside players to incubate until their opportunity comes.

As such, here are some widely available players who could be better options than the worst player on your team:

John Salmons, SG/SF, Sacramento Kings (19.1 percent owned): It would have been difficult for Salmons not to improve upon the disaster that was his 2011-12 season, when he posted a career-low 3-point percentage and the worst per-minute numbers he has had since he broke out for the Kings in 2006-2007. But he has stepped in and performed admirably in Tyreke Evans' absence, scoring in double figures in four of the past six games. He is averaging 13.9 points on 51.4 percent shooting from the floor and 82.4 percent from the stripe with 4.7 assists, 1.6 3-pointers and 1.0 steals per game over the past 15 days. He has decreased his attempts on long 2-pointers and increased his attempts at the rim, which are positive signs in the field goal percentage department. Evans is expected to return sometime during the Kings' next homestand, but there's enough ambiguity there and overall instability surrounding this team that it's worth it to ride Salmons while he's hot.

Mike Dunleavy, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks (15.4 percent owned): Dunleavy has shined recently in a bench role for the Bucks after missing six games because of a knee injury, averaging 15.8 points and 2.8 3-pointers per game over his past four contests. He has become more of a catch-and-shoot option than he was a few years ago, when he was one of the better all-around offensive options in the game, but he is still a major threat from beyond the arc, averaging 1.8 3s per game on 41 percent shooting from downtown. Dunleavy should continue to see significant minutes, as his +8.1 plus/minus is the best on his team, according to 82games.com, and should remain an excellent source of 3s as a primary scoring option off the bench for the Bucks.

Will Bynum, PG, Detroit Pistons (8 percent owned): Bynum has displayed flashes of brilliance in the past, such as November 2009, when he averaged 15 points, 4.5 assists and 1.0 steals per game in 14 contests while playing almost 30 minutes per night. But the Detroit backcourt has been bogged down by Rodney Stuckey and now-former Pistons Ben Gordon and Richard Hamilton, so he never has gotten the consistent run he seemingly deserves, not to mention he struggled with injury and personal problems last season. But he has been scorching of late with Stuckey sidelined, averaging 19.8 points, 5.8 assists and 2.0 3s per game over his past four games. Stuckey should be back soon, but this stretch could earn Bynum more playing time, as he is capable of playing alongside Stuckey and Brandon Knight. Don't expect the 20-plus scoring nights to continue with regularity, but he is capable of providing modest points, assists and 3s as a spark plug off the bench.

Charlie Villanueva, SF/PF, Pistons (1 percent owned): Back in the day, I was enthralled with Villanueva's fantasy potential, because as a talented stretch power forward who shoots 3s, he has multicategory glory written all over him. Unfortunately, he fell hopelessly in love with the long ball and forgot there are other aspects to basketball, resulting in a considerable decline in minutes in each of the past three seasons. This was also spurred by poor conditioning and ankle problems, both of which are improved this season, as exhibited by his sparkling 19.87 player efficiency rating. He is still enamored with the trey, but he is getting enough playing time and draining them at an exorbitant enough rate that he is worth a flier as a 3-point specialist from the power forward position. Villanueva is averaging 14.2 points, 3.4 3s, 1.0 steals and 0.6 blocks per game in his past five contests, and if he continues earning minutes in the mid-20s, he'll be an unexpected (given his position) source of 3-pointers.

Garrett Temple, SG, Washington Wizards (1 percent owned): Boasting impressive size and versatility for a guard, Temple has bounced around the league but posted enticing per-minute statistics in his limited time, averaging 0.4 3s, 0.5 steals and 0.3 blocks in 12.6 minutes per game for his career. He averaged 1.2 3s, 1.7 steals and 0.7 blocks per game as a senior at LSU and has developed his limited offensive game a bit, but he excels most on the defensive end. He is worth deep-league consideration if you need a glue-type player who has some value in multiple categories, at least until John Wall returns.

Hakim Warrick, PF, Charlotte Bobcats (0.7 percent owned): This mediocre journeyman with solid scoring ability is doing what he does when given more playing time: provide above average scoring numbers and below average everything else on a per-minute basis. Warrick is not exciting unless you need scoring in a deep league, but he has four seasons of averaging double digits in points per game under his belt and has at least 12 points in three of the past four contests with Byron Mullens sidelined. He should provide 10-12 points with 4-5 boards per game with this increased playing time.

Jared Sullinger, PF, Boston Celtics (0.6 percent owned): The primary question surrounding Sullinger on draft day was the health of his back, not his ability to be productive. Well, he has been healthy, and relatively productive, averaging 8.8 points on 57.1 percent shooting with 6.2 rebounds and 0.8 steals per game in his past five contests. It took until the end of November for him to notch his third double-digit scoring effort, and now he has done it in three of his past five games as he's becoming an increasingly important part of the Celtics' bench rotation. Right now, his rebounding is his best trait; his 13.8 rebound rate per 48 minutes ranks 24th in the league, ahead of guys like Greg Monroe and Blake Griffin. His ceiling in relatively low, as his subpar athleticism will make it difficult for him to dominate in any category, but he should eventually score efficiently, rebound and provide just enough steals and blocks to be consistently fantasy worthy if his health holds up.

Terrence Ross, SG, Toronto Raptors (0.5 percent owned): The Raptors surprised many by drafting Ross eighth overall, but he has the type of game that translates nicely at the NBA level and we're starting to get glimpses of his potential. He posted 26 points with six 3s, five rebounds and two steals Wednesday night and is averaging 14 points with 2.8 3s and 1.2 steals in his past five contests. He is raw, but he has ample upside and is capable of contributing in points and 3s for a team that is currently starting Mickael Pietrus at the 2. Don't be surprised if that changes shortly, as Ross is proving to be ready to have an impact at this level.

Shelvin Mack, PG, Wizards (0.4 percent owned): Mack's defense will earn him enough court time to warrant a deep-league pickup if you're desperate for assists, as he battles fellow no-name defensive hustler Temple for run. Neither is worth a spot in standard leagues, but Mack is worth grabbing if you want assists in deep formats, and Temple is if you want a little of everything. Mack is averaging five assists per game in his past three games, and like Temple, he'll have some value until Wall returns.

John Jenkins, SG, Atlanta Hawks (0 percent owned): This is my super-deep special of the week. Widely regarded as the best shooter in the 2012 NBA draft, Jenkins looks to do one thing when given playing time: drain from long range. He averaged 3.8 3s per game at Vanderbilt last season, and although he is poor at creating his own shot, he thrives in catch-and-shoot situations. He is proving that his skill translates to the NBA 3-point line, as he is nailing 47.6 percent of his 3-point attempts and averaging 0.7 3s in just 8.2 minutes per game. He is averaging 10.7 points and 1.7 3s in 20 minutes per game in his past three contests with Anthony Morrow sidelined, and if he is capable of sustaining increased playing time and supplants Morrow as the team's 3-point specialist, he'll be a legitimate one-category wonder.

HacheMan · Jan 7, 2013

Vasquez, Smith and Dirk surging

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

You'll notice a bit of a shakeup in the top 130 rankings this week, so let's take a look at some of the big movers and fantasy storylines over the past week.

[h=3]The Top 130[/h]Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses.1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Chris Paul, LAC (3)
4. Russell Westbrook, OKC (4)
5. Kobe Bryant, LAL (6)
6. James Harden, HOU (7)
7. Kyrie Irving, CLE (8)
8. Serge Ibaka, OKC (9)
9. Nicolas Batum, POR (10)
10. Stephen Curry, GS (11)
11. Carmelo Anthony, NY (12)
12. Marc Gasol, MEM (13)
13. Rajon Rondo, BOS (14)
14. Joakim Noah, CHI (15)
15. Paul George, IND (16)
16. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (17)
17. Jrue Holiday, PHI (18)
18. Damian Lillard, POR (19)
19. Brandon Jennings, MIL (20)
20. Josh Smith, ATL (21)
21. Al Jefferson, UTAH (22)
22. Dwyane Wade, MIA (23)
23. David Lee, GS (24)
24. Kevin Love, MIN (5)
25. Anthony Davis, NO (25)
26. Paul Pierce, BOS (26)
27. Deron Williams, BKN (27)
28. Dwight Howard, LAL (28)
29. Brook Lopez, BKN (35)
30. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (60)
31. Zach Randolph, MEM (29)
32. Rudy Gay, MEM (30)
33. Mike Conley, MEM (31)
34. Kemba Walker, CHA (32)
35. Steve Nash, LAL (34)
36. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (40)
37. Tim Duncan, SA (39)
38. Ryan Anderson, NO (36)
39. Anderson Varejao, CLE (37)
40. Chris Bosh, MIA (42)
41. Greg Monroe, DET (38)
42. Al Horford, ATL (41)
43. Monta Ellis, MIL (46)
44. Blake Griffin, LAC (43)
45. Tony Parker, SA (44)
46. J.R. Smith, NY (68)
47. Goran Dragic, PHO (48)
48. Ty Lawson, DEN (33)
49. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (50)
50. Greivis Vasquez, NO (65)
51. George Hill, IND (57)
52. Wesley Matthews, POR (52)
53. Kenneth Faried, DEN (51)
54. Kyle Lowry, TOR (54)
55. Klay Thompson, GS (58)
56. O.J. Mayo, DAL (49)
57. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (59)
58. Lou Williams, ATL (69)
59. Pau Gasol, LAL (45)
60. Luol Deng, CHI (56)
61. Andre Iguodala, DEN (64)
62. Roy Hibbert, IND (53)
63. Joe Johnson, BKN (66)
64. Larry Sanders, MIL (71)
65. Paul Millsap, UTAH (55)
66. Eric Gordon, NO (72)
67. Omer Asik, HOU (63)
68. Tyson Chandler, NY (73)
69. Ricky Rubio, MIN (47)
70. Gerald Wallace, BKN (61)
71. Marcin Gortat, PHO (76)
72. David West, IND (75)
73. Evan Turner, PHI (62)
74. Kevin Martin, OKC (70)
75. Brandon Knight, DET (67)
76. Thaddeus Young, PHI (77)
77. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (82)
78. Jeff Teague, ATL (78)
79. Kevin Garnett, BOS (79)
80. Jeremy Lin, HOU (80)
81. J.J. Hickson, POR (81)
82. Carlos Boozer, CHI (83)
83. Jameer Nelson, ORL (86)
84. Manu Ginobili, SA (84)
85. Nene Hilario, WSH (98)
86. Kawhi Leonard, SA (74)
87. Jarrett Jack, GS (91)
88. Tyreke Evans, SAC (88)
89. Arron Afflalo, ORL (93)
90. John Wall, WSH (89)
91. Jamal Crawford, LAC (90)
92. Jason Kidd, NY (96)
93. Amare Stoudemire, NY (94)
94. Dion Waiters, CLE (85)
95. JaVale McGee, DEN (87)
96. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (95)
97. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (110)
98. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (97)
99. Rodney Stuckey, DET (100)
100. Jared Dudley, PHO (99)
101. Marcus Thornton, SAC (92)
102. Raymond Felton, NY (101)
103. Jordan Crawford, WSH (105)
104. J.J. Redick, ORL (111)
105. Andre Drummond, DET (112)
106. Jose Calderon, TOR (103)
107. DeAndre Jordan, LAC (108)
108. Gerald Henderson, CHA (119)
109. Darren Collison, DAL (123)
110. Tristan Thompson, CLE (122)
111. Derrick Favors, UTAH (104)
112. Chandler Parsons, HOU (102)
113. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA (106)
114. Metta World Peace, LAL (107)
115. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (116)
116. Luis Scola, PHO (NR)
117. Ramon Sessions, CHA (118)
118. Andrea Bargnani, TOR (114)
119. Andrew Bynum, PHI (117)
120. Patrick Patterson, HOU (NR)
121. Chris Kaman, DAL (125)
122. Derrick Rose, CHI (124)
123. Matt Barnes, LAC (127)
124. Alexey Shved, MIN (NR)
125. Bradley Beal, WSH (NR)
126. Kyle Korver, ATL (128)
127. Kosta Koufos, DEN (128.5)
128. Robin Lopez, NO (115)
129. Ed Davis, TOR (NR)
130. Ray Allen, MIA (120)

It took Dirk Nowitzki only about five games to prove that his conditioning is rounding into form after sitting out the first month and a half of the season with a knee injury. Dirk scored 19 points in a loss to the Heat on Wednesday before joining the starting lineup to post 20 points on Saturday against the Hornets. We already know what to expect from Dirk now that he's getting close to full strength: 20-21 points, 7 rebounds, 1-plus 3-pointers and a handful of steals and blocks per game to go along with terrific shooting percentages. Kudos to those of you who were patient enough to stick with Nowitzki at the start of the season.

Can someone please tell me why in the world Pau Gasol is attempting 2.0 3-pointers per game since returning from knee tendinitis on Dec. 18? Maybe Pau or head coach Mike D'Antoni can fill us in? Gasol has a nice midrange jumper, but he's a player who had attempted just 112 total 3-pointers in 12 seasons prior to this campaign. It's not surprising, therefore, that Pau is shooting just 38.9 percent from the floor during this stretch. I know everyone wants to jump all over Pau these days, but he's actually performing better in fantasy than most people think; while he's putting up only 12.0 points per game over his past five contests, he's adding a versatile 7.2 boards, 4.4 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.0 3-pointers per game during that span. And while I don't think Pau will be able to get back to providing top-30 value with this roster, I do think that he's better than he has played thus far. Those owners looking to send out buy-low offers might want to target Pau and hope that he and D'Antoni figure out a way to get him some shots closer to the basket.

Has J.R. Smith finally turned the corner in terms of consistency? He has scored at least 15 points in each of his past 15 games and although he still has some off nights with his 3-point shooting and steals, he'll offset that by putting up huge numbers the next night. Smith is averaging an impressive 22.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.8 3-pointers per game over his past 10 contests. He has had these kind of runs before only to sink back into his inconsistent ways, but he appears to be much more consistent in now his ninth NBA season.

We've spoken about Greivis Vasquez multiple times in this space before, but I have to mention that he's averaging 17.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 9.6 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.5 3-pointers over his past 10 games. He's absolutely filling up the stat sheet right now and has been a top-20 fantasy player over the past 15 games on our Player Rater. Vasquez has turned himself into a very good point guard, but he's likely to cool down a little at some point. That said, I've moved him up to 50th overall in the ranks, as I think he'll continue to be an extremely strong point guard option the rest of the season.

Eric Gordon has shown some rust with his shot in three games since his return from a knee injury, posting a solid 16.3 points, 4.7 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.0 3-pointers per game -- but shooting just 32.6 percent from the floor. Gordon's field goal percentage should round back into shape as he works off the rust, and he'll be a big fantasy asset for as long as he's healthy. However, I just can't shake the feeling that we haven't seen the last of his injury concerns this season.

I'm finally starting to see why I originally ranked DeMarcus Cousins in the low teens at the start of the season. Cousins has been a man possessed since returning from a two-game suspension, averaging 22.0 points, 14.2 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 1.6 steals per game while shooting 50 percent from the floor and 80 percent from the line. This is exactly the kind of upside Cousins has shown in the past, but his owners know that he can just as easily slip back into his pre-suspension ways. About as high-risk, high-reward as they come, Cousin's play of late has to make his owners happy. Now let's hope he continues to play with this sort of intensity the rest of the way.

Tristan Thompson has been terrific of late, posting four double-doubles while averaging 13.4 points, 13.0 rebounds and 0.8 blocks over his past five games. It's nice to see the 21-year-old progressing, but how will he fare with Anderson Varejao expected to rejoin the lineup next week? Thompson's value is sure to decrease with Varejao back, but I still think he'll offer some moderate value in standard leagues for his double-double potential. I would love to see him get more blocks and hit more free throws, but I like his potential down the road.

As we expected at the start of the season, Toronto's two-headed point guard monster of Kyle Lowry and Jose Calderon is negating each guard's value. Calderon is averaging 8.0 points, 8.6 assists and 1.2 3-pointers in 27.0 minutes over his past five games while Lowry has posted 13.4 points, 7.0 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.8 3-pointers in 24.8 minutes during that same stretch. Both guards are obviously quality plays in standard fantasy formats despite the time-share. Lowry is the more valuable fantasy commodity when both are healthy, but I have a feeling that these two will continue to limit each other's values as we progress deeper into the season.

I'm sure Russell Westbrook's owners have noticed that he is taking 4.0 3-point attempts per game on the season -- and that he's actually not shooting it too poorly at 36.7 percent from downtown. Westbrook is having a truly brilliant fantasy season, particularly now that he has added the 3-point shot to his repertoire. He's averaging 21.8 points, 5.1 boards, 8.6 assists, 2.1 steals and 1.5 3-pointers per game; the only negative in Westbrook's game this season is his 41.5 percent shooting from the floor (thanks mostly to the aforementioned 3-point attempts). But I'm sure his owners will gladly sacrifice the field goal percentage for the added 3-point field goals.

HacheMan · Jan 7, 2013

[h=1]LeBron shooting better than ever[/h][h=3]Batum is dishing and Barnes is scoring, but Monroe is missing[/h]By Joe Kaiser | ESPN Insider

Editor's note: This is Insider's weekly series that identifies and analyzes tendencies or trends exhibited by five players.
Was 2012 a bigger year for anyone in the NBA other than LeBron James? OK, maybe Jeremy Lin, but other than that one possible exception, it's difficult to overlook the significance of last year for James.
He overcame the struggles and disappointment of the 2011 postseason and the resentment that came from "The Decision" to lead Miami to a world championship, shedding the monkey from his back and solidifying his legacy in the process.
Absolutely huge.
In this week's TrendWatch, we go back and take a closer look at some of the improvements James has made to his game in recent years and why they could be so important for the Heat's title chances this season.
We'll also delve deeper into Al Jefferson's changing shot selection, Greg Monroe's shooting woes, Matt Barnes increased scoring role and the reason for Nicolas Batum's sudden rise in assists.
[h=3]LeBron James | PF | Miami Heat[/h]Trend: shooting better than ever
<offer>The longer James is in the league, the more difficult it is to find an area where he can still improve. After all, the great ones all seem to have a knack for correcting perceived weaknesses -- often turning them into strengths -- through countless hours of tireless practice and dedication to the craft.

<center>James</center>
Those areas for James once were his post game, midrange jumper and 3-point shot, but that's no longer the case. A look at his shooting stats this season shows how far he's come even from the player he was two years ago.
That season, his first in Miami, James shot what was then a career-high 51 percent from the field while making 33 percent of his shots from 3-point range. Those were certainly good numbers -- for anyone not named LeBron James. Entering Monday, James is shooting 54.5 percent from the field and 41.1 percent on 3s.
Both would be career highs if the season ended today, which should serve as an indication that James is more unstoppable today than he's ever been. This is a big deal, because if Dwyane Wade has lost a step as some believe, Miami could very well need even more from James (as the clear go-to guy late in games) in order to repeat as NBA champions.
[h=3]Al Jefferson | C | Utah Jazz[/h]Trend: becoming more perimeter oriented
Though "Big Al" is shooting less this season as he shares time with Utah's three other bigs, he's shooting more long 2s (16-23 feet) than he has at any point in his career. Entering Monday, more than a third of his shots per game (5.4 of 15.1) are coming from that range (per HoopData.com), which is an even higher percentage than that of Miami perimeter-oriented big man Chris Bosh.

<center>Jefferson</center>
This is the continuation of a two-year trend during which Jefferson has begun to drift away from the basket. Consider the following: From 2007-09 with Boston and Minnesota, Jefferson took at least 5.6 shots a game at the rim. That number dipped slightly each of the next two seasons. Then last season, at age 27, it fell more drastically. Jefferson averaged just 4.2 shots at the rim while taking 4.7 long 2s per game. This year, he's taking just 3.4 shots a game at the rim while his attempts from the perimeter continue to rise (5.4).
This might not be an issue the Jazz will have to worry about for much longer, as the team is rumored to be building around young big men Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter -- not free-agents-to-be Jefferson and Paul Millsap -- but it's definitely something to consider for any team interested in adding Jefferson in the future.
[h=3]Nicolas Batum | SG | Portland Trail Blazers[/h]Trend: dishing more assists
For as versatile as Batum is on the court, assists have never been a big part of his game. Being the long, wiry wing that he is, it's a little surprising that more of his passes in his first four years in the league didn't lead to Trail Blazers baskets. Even still, with a bright future and seemingly more room for growth as a player, Batum was highly regarded enough that the Trail Blazers decided to match Minnesota's lucrative four-year, $46.1 million offer over the summer to bring him back to the City of Roses.

<center>Batum</center>
Give Batum credit for living up to the contract, at least in the early going. He's playing well and his 18.01 player efficiency rating is at an all-time high. Look even closer and something might surprise you -- finally, in his fifth NBA season, he's racking up assists.
In fact, the 24-year-old Batum is averaging a career-best 4.5 assists per 40 minutes this season after four straight seasons hovering in the 1.9-2.0 range -- quite a huge spike -- and it isn't overly difficult to figure out why. The name Damian Lillard might ring a bell? With the Blazers being as reliant on their starting unit as any team in the league this season, Batum's been able to count on the sweet-shooting rookie to turn his passes into points on a regular basis this season.
[h=3]Greg Monroe | PF/C | Detroit Pistons[/h]Trend: shooting has gone south
Over the past few seasons, much has been made of the Pistons' good fortune in having Monroe slide to them with the No. 7 pick of the 2010 draft (and you can bet that Golden State has regretted selecting Ekpe Udoh one pick ahead of him ever since). This season, it's been Andre Drummond stealing the headlines, with the buzz being that Detroit is developing one of the best young frontcourts in the league.

<center>Monroe</center>
Seemingly lost in all this, though, are Monroe's surprising shooting struggles. Would you believe that the Georgetown product has seen his field goal percentage dip in three consecutive seasons, from 55.1 percent as a rookie to 52.1 last season to 46.4 percent this season? He has, and the reason is twofold:
" For one, he's not finishing as well at the rim as he has in years past -- less than 60 percent this season for the first time in his three-year career (per HoopData.com).
" He's taking more long 2s (entering last week, HoopData.com shows that 17.4 percent of his shots came from that range).
So what's this mean for Monroe and his role in the Pistons' future? That's the big question here. With Drummond's rapid development and high upside, one has to think that prolonged shooting woes from Monroe -- a guy known more for his offense than his defense -- could make him the more expendable of the two if it ever came to that point. That might say more about Drummond's star power, though, than it does about Monroe's shortcomings.
[h=3]Matt Barnes | SG | Los Angeles Clippers[/h]Trend: improved scoring
Lets face it, there are very few players in the league today quite like Barnes, the Clippers' all-everything veteran reserve. Even at this stage in his career, at age 32, he can still impact the game in so many ways: as a slasher, shooter, rebounder, passer or defender.

<center>Barnes</center>
The big story with Barnes this season after two years with the Lakers is his ability to score. In fact, he's scoring as many points per 40 minutes (16.5) as he did at age 26 with the "We Believe" Golden State Warriors way back in 2006-07.
Even back then, though, Barnes wasn't as efficient offensively as he's been this season, and his career-best true shooting percentage of 58.9 is proof of that. Guys such as Barnes, Jamal Crawford, Eric Bledsoe, Lamar Odom and (when healthy) Chauncey Billups and Grant Hill give the Clippers more firepower and experience than any other bench unit in the league, which could be a huge factor in the later rounds of the playoffs this spring.</offer>

HacheMan · Jan 8, 2013

PG/SG-eligibles very valuable

By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

There is a certain feeling I'll get from time to time when contemplating a move or trade for one of my teams, a feeling that lets me know I went against my own advice during a draft.

The "I can't trade [this guy] because my team will be behind the 8-ball in [this category] without him" feeling.

If I've placed all my hope for winning a certain category in the fortunes of a single player, then I've stumbled as an imaginary team builder. It means I've ignored my own advice to preserve and maintain flexibility within my roster.

There are two main routes to getting this flexibility: out-of-position production and multipositional eligibility.

I already discussed out-of-position stats a couple of columns ago. Now I want to highlight some players who have added value due to their ability to be played in different lineup slots.

Multipositional eligibility gains importance for owners competing in head-to-head leagues. Having several multiposition players enables you to really craft matchups as the week progresses and allows you to place extra emphasis on certain categories should the need arise. Not only are you maximizing games played, but you're also targeting games in certain categories.

In short, you get more room to operate.

ESPN fantasy basketball offers several multiposition classifications: PG/SG, SG/SF, SF/PF and PF/C. I want to focus on one area of eligibility where you can really corner the market, and that's PG/SG.

There are so many SG/SFs and PF/Cs in fantasy that there's only a nominal tactical advantage to be gained by targeting those slots. Those markets are oversaturated.

And while there are certain benefits one can divine from the SF/PF slot, the strategic implications are not as great as they are with PG/SG. Again, this is due to more and more players being given SF/PF eligibility.

I've historically been a big fan of stocking up on PG/SGs for one simple reason: It allows owners to eradicate the need for owning any actual shooting guards.

Shooting guards, as a fantasy grouping, have tended to be very top-heavy. You have several elites and a bunch of 3-point specialists who you just hope will snare you a few steals while they submarine your field goal percentage.

Over the past couple of seasons, the dynamic has shifted, mainly due to the preponderance of players who have been given the SG/SF tag. As a result, it's easier these days to find decent shooting guards in the middle to late rounds.

But there is one statistic that has remained the property of point guards everywhere: assists. This is the primary area where owning PG/SGs can help.

If you can start a PG/SG averaging four to five assists per game at shooting guard alongside a pure point guard, you'll have added pop in a key category and an advantage that is difficult to attain.

Why is difficult to attain? Because out of the top 20 point guards on the Player Rater, only four have the PG/SG tag. It's a loophole in the fantasy system that can allow you to gain a distinct edge on other owners who choose not to care about such distinctions.

Conversely, you may find yourself in an H2H matchup where you've built up a lead in -- or have decided to punt -- assists. You can flip the script, starting a PG/SG with more of a pure shooting guard's tendencies -- hitting 3s, increasing shot attempts and focusing on "getting his" as opposed to ball movement and facilitating other teammates on offense.

Let's take a look at some of these all-too-rare PG/SGs:

Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors: If you could devise a prototype for the perfect PG/SG, Curry would be it. However, he comes with two design flaws -- the two bum ankles that limited him to 26 games last season.

Curry has returned with a numerical vengeance, staying on the court while anchoring one of the most fantasy-friendly lineups in the NBA with 20.1 points, 6.5 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 3.0 3-pointers per game (second in the NBA). He is eighth in the NBA with a .896 free throw percentage. He has basically been as close to perfect as a combo guard can get.

The Player Rater has Curry at No. 7 for the season, but the extra-special goodness of PG/SG eligibility boosts him into my top five.

Kemba Walker, Charlotte Bobcats: Third-round value for a 10th-round pick -- that's what you're getting if you drafted Walker before Halloween. The ability to shift his 6.0 assists per game into your shooting guard slot makes Walker even more valuable.

He'll still do all the things you expect out of a shooting guard: make 3s (1.2 per game), snare steals (an elite 1.8 per game) and hurt your field goal percentage (.427, but up from .366 his rookie season). He also rebounds well for a guard (3.2 per game) and blocks more shots than your average guard (0.4 per game).

He's still somewhat inconsistent and unreliable as a No. 1 point guard, but as a shooting guard, third guard or utility player? Walker is proving to be a steal as an across-the-board asset.

Louis Williams, Atlanta Hawks: Williams heads the shooting guard/point guard list, specifically players whose skill set resides more on the shooting guard side of the divide. With Williams you'll still get decent assists (3.7 per game) while reaping elite 3-point production (2.0 per game) and solid steals (1.2 per game).

As an added bonus, he has been starting, which will hopefully add consistency to Williams' touch from the field, as he has been plagued by streakiness in the past.

Monta Ellis, Milwaukee Bucks: In many ways, Curry is a more efficient system update of Ellis. A few seasons ago, Ellis was doing many of the same things for the same team (Golden State). They even ran together for a couple of seasons in a shaky coexistence.

If you look at Ellis' numbers in Milwaukee, you'll see a lot of similarities. The big difference is that Ellis needs more shots to get his 20 points a night and hits fewer 3s along the way. This season, his 3-point percentage has been especially damaging. If his current .259 clip holds, it will be the second-lowest mark of his career.

Perhaps losing notorious fantasy value-killer Scott Skiles as a head coach will improve Ellis' prospects. Ellis hasn't been the same long-range shooter since he came to Milwaukee.

Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets: Lawson has been a mild disappointment this season. This is thanks to his team's slow start, a timeshare and people being a little too high on him in the preseason. Lawson bottomed out in fantasy value last week when he was sidelined with a strained Achilles.

He responded by working his way back into his starting spot with three solid performances, including a double-double Sunday (21 points, 10 assists). He's a solid buy-low opportunity, as Denver's teamwide prospects are on the rise.

Jason Kidd, New York Knicks: Like Tim Duncan, Kidd is in the midst of an unexpectedly productive late-career fantasy season.

For years, he has been the example of the fantasy player who doesn't need to score to contribute. Kidd has been stretching that adage out as of late with a series of single-digit scoring outbursts, but he is still a top-20 point guard and a nice third guard in deeper leagues. He'll retain extra value while Raymond Felton is out.

Jamal Crawford, Los Angeles Clippers: Crawford and J.R. Smith have been fantasy's most productive sixth men to date. Crawford's main problem has been a sore foot that finally forced him into street clothes, but reports have him returning within a week at most.

Alexey Shved, Minnesota Timberwolves: I've been hoping that Shved would become the long-term solution at shooting guard in Minnesota. That spot has been a fantasy wasteland the past couple of seasons, a morass of timeshares, failed lottery picks and injuries.

It's taken awhile -- and a few other injuries -- but Shved is showing he can be a consistent producer on a nightly basis. He can play multiple positions -- I've been waiting to see if he becomes eligible at small forward -- and gives fantasy owners something even on the nights when his shot isn't falling.

His ascent should be hastened by Kevin Love's unfortunate injury, which should open up additional touches on offense. Shved still needs to avoid 1-for-11 nights like he had Saturday; it will be tough for Rick Adelman to start Shved and Rubio together if they remain liabilities from inside the arc.

Other notables: George Hill, Indiana Pacers; Brandon Knight, Detroit Pistons; Jordan Crawford, Washington Wizards

HacheMan · Jan 10, 2013

Reacting to coaching changes

By Josh Whitling | Special to ESPN.com

Aside from injuries, there are two primary conduits for unexpected shifts in value during the midseason: coaching changes and trades. For example, with the exit of coach Avery Johnson in Brooklyn, Brook Lopez and Deron Williams are playing like top-20 players and Andray Blatche is once again dropping regular double-doubles. Now that Scott Skiles is out in Milwaukee, it'll be interesting to see what happens to the minutes of defensively focused players such as Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Larry Sanders. The trade deadline isn't until Feb. 21, but once players are swapped, guys currently earning little or no run could emerge as fantasy options. Pay close attention to the games following coaching changes and trades, as they could reveal value that wouldn't otherwise exist.

With that, here are some widely available players with performances over the past several weeks that warrant attention in a variety of league sizes and formats:

Brandon Bass, PF/C, Boston Celtics (15.1 percent owned): Bass has returned to the Celtics' starting lineup, a lineup that, along with Avery Bradley, he had significant success in last season. In 37 starts last season, Bass averaged 13.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 0.7 blocks, while shooting 47.4 percent from the floor and 81.6 percent from the stripe. The area in which he historically has been a fantasy asset is in the percentage categories; of the 41 qualifying players who shot at least 47.0 percent from the floor last season, Bass was one of nine to also shoot better than 80 percent from the stripe. His field goal percentage is down this season, but now it is on the rise, as he's shooting 51.9 percent in January and should continue to inch up as his current 38.6 percent mark from 10-15 feet trends toward his career numbers (in the mid-40s). Add him for percentages if he was dropped in your league, and consider the middling points, rebounds, steals and blocks a bonus to complement his efficiency.

Carlos Delfino, SG/SF, Houston Rockets (13.9 percent owned): He's spectacularly streaky, but his playing time has been relatively consistent of late. He has played 24 minutes in nine of his past 10 contests, and he is averaging 14.8 points, 3.8 3-pointers and 1.5 steals over the past four games. If you want dependable nightly production, look elsewhere. But if you're looking for a player who should average more than 10 points and two 3s from here on out, Delfino's long-range skills will help him do that.

John Henson, PF, Milwaukee Bucks (13.3 percent owned): Based on the hype surrounding Henson coming out of high school, some view his inconsistent college performance and late-lottery selection as disappointing. But last year at North Carolina, Henson averaged a respectable 13.7 points, 9.9 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game, and he's already earning minutes for the Bucks. He has averaged 10.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.4 blocks and 0.8 steals over his past five games. Perhaps most importantly, he's averaging 22.6 minutes per game in the same span.

Henson's increase in playing time has continued with new coach Jim Boylan, and it makes sense organizationally for him to play as they develop him for the future. With his 7-foot-5 wingspan, ability to rebound and block shots, and his decent midrange game -- he's shooting 50 percent from 10-15 feet -- Henson has loads of fantasy potential. If he keeps getting minutes in the mid-20s per game, he'll help fantasy teams in boards and blocks right now, and doesn't go to the line enough at this point in his career for his awful free throw shooting to be especially detrimental. His 17.1 rebounds per-48 ranks eighth among players averaging at least 10 minutes per game, so despite his thin frame, his hops and length are allowing him to pull down boards at a rate that makes him worth owning if your team is hungry for boards.

Derrick Williams, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves (6.1 percent owned): Williams is earning increased run with Kevin Love out 8-10 weeks because a broken hand, and despite his disappointing NBA career thus far, he still has plenty of upside and has looked surprisingly solid of late. The accuracy on his jumper has improved this season, and he's averaging more points, 3s, rebounds and blocks per minute despite a dip in playing time. I've given up on him as a player worth the No. 2 overall pick, but not as a player with fantasy value, as his career 0.6 3s, 0.5 blocks and 0.4 steals per game in 20.3 minutes indicates potential as he learns how to play the game at this level. He scored 17 points with three 3s in 21 minutes off the bench Tuesday, 14 points and 11 rebounds Wednesday and will pick up the bulk of Kevin Love's scoring load while Dante Cunningham shoulders the rebounding and defensive responsibilities.

Dante Cunningham, PF, Timberwolves (5.8 percent owned): Cunningham is starting in place of Love and averaging 6.8 rebounds, 2.3 steals and 1.0 blocks per game in four starts. He's a high-energy defender who can play against the pick-and-roll and has flashed the ability to hit long 2-pointers with efficiency, as well as finish at the rim (he has a career 48.2 percent mark from the floor). He has been used off the bench for the majority of the past two seasons, but in his last extended stretch as a starter, he averaged 9.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 0.4 blocks per game in 18 starts during the 2010-2011 season. His rebound, steal and block per-minute rates have increased since then as he has developed as an NBA rotation player. Expecting 10 points, 6-8 boards, a steal and nearly a block per game while he's starting is realistic, making him a valid deep-league option for owners in search of efficient scoring and defensive stats.

Iman Shumpert, PG/SG, New York Knicks (0.9 percent owned): He's not back yet, and it's hard to project what his minutes will look like with J.R. Smith, Jason Kidd and Raymond Felton (when he returns) clogging the Knicks' backcourt. But this is a player who averaged 9.7 points, 3.1 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.0 3s in 35 starts as a rookie. He has developed a reputation as a defensive stopper, something none of the aforementioned Knicks guards can claim. There's upside here, especially if you need steals, as he ranked seventh overall and fifth in steals per-48 last season, so speculatively add him in deep leagues if you're in search of swipes.

Josh McRoberts, PF, Orlando Magic (0.1 percent owned): McRoberts has historically flashed a multifaceted skill set, but he has been unable to find a consistent role since leaving Indiana after the 2010-2011 season. Now that Gustavo Ayon has joined Glen Davis on the injured list, McRoberts is getting increased minutes, and he showed some of his versatility Monday, scoring 12 points with eight assists, two 3s and a block in 39 minutes off the bench. Ayon's production has been erratic since Big Baby went down, so McRoberts might be in line for more run, and he has additional incentive to play well given that it's his contract year.

P.J. Tucker, SG, Phoenix Suns (0.1 percent owned): The newest starter at shooting guard for the Suns, Tucker provides defensive stability and grittiness to a team desperately in need of it. Tucker has honed his game overseas since being selected in the second round by Toronto in the 2006 draft, playing in Israel, Ukraine, Italy and Germany. He boasts impressive strength and rebounding ability for his size, and is a capable defender on the perimeter and in the paint. In 44 games for the Brose Baskets of the German League last season, he averaged 16.2 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game, and for his career overseas, he averaged about 14 points and seven rebounds with 1.2 steals per game, consistently scoring with efficiency. His final season at Texas, he averaged 16.1 points, 9.5 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. He shot better than 50 percent from the floor in all three seasons there, and he is bringing that kind of efficiency this year, making 64.2 percent of his shots at the rim and 52 percent of jumpers between 16-23 feet. His fantasy upside is limited, as he doesn't shoot many 3s, and he's most valuable if you're trying to make up ground by getting rebounding from the guard position. His 8.4 rebounds per-48 minutes ranks first among shooting guards, and with starter's minutes, he could flirt with six boards per game, a feat currently accomplished by just two guard-eligible players: Paul George and Evan Turner.

HacheMan · Jan 10, 2013

[h=1]Sullinger muscling his way through[/h][h=3]Keep an eye on Metta World Peace, Nikola Pekovic this week[/h]
By Bradford Doolittle | Basketball Prospectus

We're getting deep in the depth charts as big men around the NBA continue to drop like oversized flies. The Lakers are the most obvious example, with Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and Jordan Hill all going down around the same time.

But L.A. isn't the only team scrambling to find size for its rotation. Cleveland lost center Anderson Varejao, who underwent knee surgery after his efforts at rehabilitating his injury proved to be unsuccessful. He's expected to be out up to and likely beyond next month's trade deadline.

Minnesota's Kevin Love will be out for 8-to-10 weeks after re-fracturing his right hand. Orlando's Glen Davis has a shoulder problem that might keep him out of the Magic's upcoming road trip. Andrew Bynum still hasn't played for Philadelphia, and there remains no timetable for his return. Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge is battling a wrist problem, and his backup Meyers Leonard is out with an ankle injury. Toronto is still playing with its starting frontcourt of Andrea Bargnani and Jonas Valanciunas both sidelined.

We could go on, but you get the idea: It's a bad time to be big. The good news in all this is that we'll get to see some new faces in larger roles for awhile, which also means new names in the Barometer leaderboards. Several of them grace this week's rankings.

Details on how the Big Man Barometer is compiled and the true position system can be found here.
<offer></offer>

[h=3]Top 10 Big Man Performances[/h]Week of Jan. 2-8; players listed by winning percentage. Any player who played at least 30 minutes total at center or power forward last week is eligible for the rankings. Also included at the bottom are big man projections for next week.
<offer>[h=3]1. Jared Sullinger | Boston Celtics (.893)[/h]<offer>

<center>Sullinger</center>

The Celtics have suddenly put together their best streak of basketball this season, and Sullinger has been right in the middle of the surge. During Boston's four-game winning streak, he's averaged 9.3 points and 10 rebounds in 27 minutes, capped by a 12-point, 16-rebound effort against the Suns.

According to the league's stat site, that's the most boards by a rookie Boston reserve since Rick Robey in 1979. Sullinger has grabbed 12.9 percent of available offensive rebounds when he's been on the floor this season, more than Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass combined.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]2. Enes Kanter | Utah Jazz (.829)[/h]

<center>Kanter</center>

Kanter is still regulated to a small role as Utah's fourth big guy, but he's averaged 15.3 points and 10.1 rebounds per 36 minutes, and shot a team-high 53.1 percent from the floor this season. When the depth chart is eventually pared down in Utah, Kanter will be ready to put up starter-caliber numbers.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]3. Mirza Teletovic | Brooklyn Nets (.827)[/h]

<center>Teletovic</center>

Playing time was sporadic for Teletovic under Avery Johnson, but he's gotten a couple of extended looks lately under P.J. Carlesimo, and the Nets have won four straight. Teletovic had the best game of his young career on Saturday in a blowout win over the Kings, racking up 14 points and six boards in 21 minutes. Over his last three games, Teletovic has hit 6 of 11 from 3-point range. He had made a total of six 3s in 16 games prior to that outburst.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]4. Ian Mahinmi | Indiana Pacers (.785)[/h]

<center>Mahinmi</center>

This is the theme this week: Reserve bigs putting up efficient numbers in larger-than-usual roles for teams playing well. Mahinmi put up 6.0 points and 6.3 rebounds in just 18 minutes per game as the Pacers won three of four during the week.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]5. Zach Randolph | Memphis Grizzlies (.763)[/h]

<center>Randolph</center>

Another streaking team is Memphis, which went 3-0 last week, all on the road, then won again at Golden State on Wednesday. Randolph was productive and efficient in those games, averaging 15.8 points, 8.8 rebounds and shooting 59 percent from the field.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]6. Taj Gibson | Chicago Bulls (.745)[/h]

<center>Gibson</center>

It's been a little bit of an off-year for Gibson, but things are looking up of late. Chicago won three straight last week, but that was bookended by home losses to Charlotte (gasp) and Milwaukee that fell on the days outside of our weekly range. Gibson wasn't too good in those losses, but in the games that count in our rankings, he averaged 14.7 points, 9.0 rebounds, two blocks and shot 63 percent from the floor. Gibson leads the Bulls in both offensive rebound percentage -- even better than Joakim Noah -- and shot-block percentage.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]7. Patrick Patterson | Houston Rockets (.708)[/h]

<center>Patterson</center>

Here's another hot reserve on a hot team. The streaking Rockets won all four of their games last week, before losing to the Hornets on Wednesday. Patterson put up unworldly shooting numbers, averaging 14.3 points in 22.2 minutes, shooting 73 percent from the field and 5 of 11 from behind the arc. He also chipped in with six boards per contest.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]8. Kendrick Perkins | Oklahoma City Thunder (.705)[/h]

<center>Perkins</center>

Perkins has become a bit of an afterthought this season, but he's coming off a strong week. Despite starting 35 games for the Thunder, Perkins hasn't had more than nine field-goal attempts in game this season. He's scored in double figures just three times and reached double digits in rebounds just twice. Both of the high-rebound games came last week, when he averaged nine boards. The offense was still nil, but a strong defensive rating is enough to place Perk in the top 10 for the first time this season.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]9. Jason Maxiell | Detroit Pistons (.667)[/h]

<center>Maxiell</center>

The bench has been stealing the show in Detroit lately, but Maxiell is one starter still earning his keep. Last week, he was at 7.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.3 blocks, while shooting 53 percent from the field.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]10. Kosta Koufos | Denver Nuggets (.640)[/h]

<center>Koufos</center>

The Nuggets have picked up the pace lately, and Koufos' play has helped keep per-minute star JaVale McGee regulated to the bench. Last week, Koufos put up 10.3 points, nine boards, 1.7 blocks, 1.7 steals and shot 62.5 percent from the field. Koufos and McGee have played just together just 87 minutes this season, so here's one way to look at Denver's center production: The duo has combined to average 17.9 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.7 blocks while shooting 57 percent. Not bad.

<center>
</center>
[h=3]Three (or four) to watch[/h]
Nikola Pekovic | Minnesota Timberwolves


<center>Pekovic</center>

Pekovic is another big guy that has been ailing, but at least he's been able to get onto the floor. With Love out, his numbers could escalate considerably. Pekovic has averaged 21 points, 14.3 rebounds and shot 62 percent over his last three outings.

<center>
</center>
Tristan Thompson | Cleveland Cavaliers


<center>Thompson</center>

Last week, we noted that Tyler Zeller is getting extended run in Varejao's absence, but Thompson has also had a chance to step up. He's played at least 32 minutes in each of his last 11 outings, during which he's averaged 36 minutes, 13.1 points and 12.5 rebounds, with 4.7 of those boards coming on the offensive end. He now ranks third in the NBA behind Kenneth Faried and Tyson Chandler with 140 offensive boards on the season.

<center>
</center>
Metta World Peace Earl Clark | Los Angeles Lakers

With the Lakers' top three big men out, ailing or both, it's been an odd conglomeration of bodies filling the four and five positions in Mike D'Antoni's rotatation. Peace has been starting at power forward, and has been putting up big numbers in the doing. In his last two outings, Peace has put up 47 points, 14 rebounds and 11 steals. Clark has also compiled some stats, getting 22 points on 9-of-12 shooting and 13 rebounds on Wednesday against the Spurs. This is all interesting to fantasy basketball fans. For fans of the real Lakers, however, it hasn't mattered. L.A. has lost five straight, and get a visit from the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday.

<center>
</center>
Here are the top 25 big man projections for the week of Jan. 14-20 (forecast for all the players who qualified for this week's Barometer rankings):
[h=4]Big Man Projections[/h]Projections for week of Jan. 14-20

PLAYER POS GP FG% 3M REB AST STL TO BLK PTS SCORE TOTAL
LeBron James SF 3 .528 1.0 7.5 7.3 2.1 3.1 0.7 29.7 25.5 76.4
Al Horford C 4 .566 0.0 9.9 3.8 1.1 1.7 1.5 17.9 17.5 70.2
Josh Smith PF 4 .477 0.3 9.4 4.3 1.6 2.3 1.7 18.6 16.1 64.4
Blake Griffin PF 4 .540 0.1 9.2 3.3 0.8 2.3 0.5 20.8 16.1 64.2
Joakim Noah C 4 .519 0.0 12.4 3.9 0.9 2.3 1.4 15.4 15.5 62.1
Marc Gasol C 4 .512 0.0 8.1 3.8 1.3 2.1 1.8 13.7 13.2 52.8
Zach Randolph PF 4 .466 0.1 10.1 2.6 1.3 1.9 0.3 15.4 12.8 51.2
Chris Bosh PF 3 .510 0.1 9.5 2.2 1.0 2.1 0.8 20.2 16.5 49.4
Carlos Boozer PF 4 .527 0.0 8.6 2.6 0.9 2.1 0.3 16.4 12.2 48.9
LaMarcus Aldridge PF 3 .510 0.0 8.8 2.4 1.0 1.8 0.9 20.0 16.1 48.2
Kenneth Faried PF 4 .606 0.0 8.6 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.2 12.7 11.9 47.5
DeMarcus Cousins C 4 .450 0.0 9.3 2.5 1.3 2.7 0.9 15.7 11.6 46.3
David Lee PF 3 .528 0.0 8.7 3.4 1.1 2.3 0.4 19.3 15.4 46.2
Kevin Garnett C 4 .496 0.0 7.6 3.0 1.2 1.7 1.0 12.7 11.2 44.9
Serge Ibaka PF 4 .571 0.0 8.1 0.4 0.5 1.0 3.4 10.3 10.9 43.4
Ryan Anderson PF 3 .429 3.2 7.7 1.3 0.9 1.2 0.5 17.4 13.3 39.9
Tim Duncan C 3 .492 0.0 8.7 3.7 0.7 1.8 1.3 14.0 12.8 38.4
Brook Lopez C 3 .520 0.0 5.0 2.0 0.6 1.7 0.8 14.9 11.3 33.9
Jason Thompson PF 4 .506 0.0 7.1 1.8 0.7 1.3 0.7 9.3 8.3 33.3
Glen Davis C 4 .404 0.1 7.3 1.2 1.2 1.8 0.6 12.8 8.3 33.2
Nenê Hilario C 4 .548 0.0 5.1 1.7 1.0 1.5 0.7 9.8 8.2 32.9
Nikola Pekovic C 3 .566 0.0 7.5 0.8 0.7 2.7 0.9 14.7 10.8 32.4
Brandon Bass PF 4 .483 0.0 5.1 0.9 0.6 1.2 1.0 10.9 8.1 32.2
Patrick Patterson C 4 .468 0.0 5.4 1.2 0.6 1.1 1.0 11.1 8.0 31.9
David West PF 3 .463 0.0 7.5 2.3 0.9 1.6 0.8 13.6 10.3 30.9

<thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>

</photo2></offer></offer>

HacheMan · Jan 14, 2013

Monroe, Millsap and Pekovic on rise

By Brian McKitish | Special to ESPN.com

How fast things can change in fantasy hoops; last week, I discussed Toronto's two-headed point guard monster of Kyle Lowry and Jose Calderon, noting that Lowry was the more valuable play (and he was at the time). What I should have written was that Lowry has more upside assuming an equal distribution of minutes. Unfortunately for Lowry and his owners, Calderon has pulled ahead in the battle for playing time and production, posting 14.6 points, 7.8 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.0 3-pointers in 28.6 minutes over his past five games compared to Lowry's 9.0 points, 5.6 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.8 3-pointers in 22.0 minutes over that stretch.

As I warned last week, this time-share will continue to frustrate fantasy owners unless an injury strikes in the Raptors' backcourt. Calderon and Lowry have individual value, but they'll continue to cut into each other's minutes and production for the foreseeable future.

[h=3]The Top 130[/h]Note: Brian McKitish's top 130 players are ranked for their fantasy value from this point forward in the 2012-13 NBA season. Previous rank is indicated in parentheses.1. Kevin Durant, OKC (1)
2. LeBron James, MIA (2)
3. Chris Paul, LAC (3)
4. Russell Westbrook, OKC (4)
5. Kobe Bryant, LAL (5)
6. James Harden, HOU (6)
7. Kyrie Irving, CLE (7)
8. Nicolas Batum, POR (9)
9. Stephen Curry, GS (10)
10. Carmelo Anthony, NY (11)
11. Serge Ibaka, OKC (8)
12. Marc Gasol, MEM (12)
13. Rajon Rondo, BOS (13)
14. Joakim Noah, CHI (14)
15. Paul George, IND (15)
16. LaMarcus Aldridge, POR (16)
17. Jrue Holiday, PHI (17)
18. Damian Lillard, POR (18)
19. Brandon Jennings, MIL (19)
20. Dwyane Wade, MIA (22)
21. Josh Smith, ATL (20)
22. Al Jefferson, UTAH (21)
23. David Lee, GS (23)
24. Deron Williams, BKN (27)
25. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (36)
26. Paul Pierce, BOS (26)
27. Brook Lopez, BKN (29)
28. DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (30)
29. Zach Randolph, MEM (31)
30. Anthony Davis, NO (25)
31. Chris Bosh, MIA (40)
32. Greg Monroe, DET (41)
33. Dwight Howard, LAL (28)
34. Mike Conley, MEM (33)
35. Kemba Walker, CHA (34)
36. Steve Nash, LAL (35)
37. Rudy Gay, MEM (32)
38. J.R. Smith, NY (46)
39. Blake Griffin, LAC (44)
40. Andrei Kirilenko, MIN (49)
41. Greivis Vasquez, NO (50)
42. Ty Lawson, DEN (48)
43. Tim Duncan, SA (37)
44. Kenneth Faried, DEN (53)
45. Monta Ellis, MIL (43)
46. Wesley Matthews, POR (52)
47. Ryan Anderson, NO (38)
48. Tony Parker, SA (45)
49. Danilo Gallinari, DEN (57)
50. John Wall, WSH (90)
51. Al Horford, ATL (42)
52. Paul Millsap, UTAH (65)
53. George Hill, IND (51)
54. Klay Thompson, GS (55)
55. Luol Deng, CHI (60)
56. Andre Iguodala, DEN (61)
57. O.J. Mayo, DAL (56)
58. Larry Sanders, MIL (64)
59. Nikola Pekovic, MIN (77)
60. Goran Dragic, PHO (47)
61. Lou Williams, ATL (58)
62. Joe Johnson, BKN (63)
63. Jameer Nelson, ORL (83)
64. Eric Gordon, NO (66)
65. Tyson Chandler, NY (68)
66. Marcin Gortat, PHO (71)
67. Carlos Boozer, CHI (82)
68. Pau Gasol, LAL (59)
69. Roy Hibbert, IND (62)
70. Omer Asik, HOU (67)
71. Ricky Rubio, MIN (69)
72. Tyreke Evans, SAC (88)
73. Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (98)
74. Jeremy Lin, HOU (80)
75. Kevin Martin, OKC (74)
76. Manu Ginobili, SA (84)
77. Kevin Garnett, BOS (79)
78. Evan Turner, PHI (73)
79. Brandon Knight, DET (75)
80. Thaddeus Young, PHI (76)
81. Arron Afflalo, ORL (89)
82. Jeff Teague, ATL (78)
83. Jamal Crawford, LAC (91)
84. Gerald Wallace, BKN (70)
85. J.J. Hickson, POR (81)
86. Nene Hilario, WSH (85)
87. Nikola Vucevic, ORL (97)
88. David West, IND (72)
89. Kyle Lowry, TOR (54)
90. Jason Kidd, NY (92)
91. Amare Stoudemire, NY (93)
92. Dion Waiters, CLE (94)
93. Kawhi Leonard, SA (86)
94. Rodney Stuckey, DET (99)
95. Jared Dudley, PHO (100)
96. Raymond Felton, NY (102)
97. DeMar DeRozan, TOR (96)
98. J.J. Redick, ORL (104)
99. Andre Drummond, DET (105)
100. Jose Calderon, TOR (106)
101. Tristan Thompson, CLE (110)
102. Metta World Peace, LAL (114)
103. Jarrett Jack, GS (87)
104. Darren Collison, DAL (109)
105. Chandler Parsons, HOU (112)
106. Gerald Henderson, CHA (108)
107. Marcus Thornton, SAC (101)
108. Luis Scola, PHO (116)
109. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA (113)
110. Alexey Shved, MIN (124)
111. Jordan Crawford, WSH (103)
112. JaVale McGee, DEN (95)
113. Bradley Beal, WSH (125)
114. Danny Granger, IND (NR)
115. Matt Barnes, LAC (123)
116. Derrick Rose, CHI (122)
117. Isaiah Thomas, SAC (115)
118. Derrick Favors, UTAH (111)
119. Ramon Sessions, CHA (117)
120. Anderson Varejao, CLE (39)
121. Amir Johnson, TOR (NR)
122. Andrea Bargnani, TOR (118)
123. Kevin Love, MIN (24)
124. Gordon Hayward, UTAH (NR)
125. Andrew Bynum, PHI (119)
126. Patrick Patterson, HOU (120)
127. Andray Blatche, BKN (NR)
128. Kosta Koufos, DEN (127)
129. Ed Davis, TOR (129)
130. Vince Carter, DAL (NR)

HacheMan · Jan 14, 2013

[h=1]Steve Nash's diminishing role[/h][h=3]Is Deng's workload too much? And what happened to Horford at the stripe?[/h]
By Joe Kaiser | ESPN Insider

Editor's note: This is Insider's weekly series that identifies and analyzes tendencies or trends exhibited by five players.

Rather than sit back contentedly and give it another go this season with the crumbling nucleus of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, the Los Angeles Lakers took an aggressive approach over the summer and made one big splash after another.

July's sign-and-trade with Phoenix to bring in Steve Nash was viewed fairly unanimously as a great haul by the Lakers. As you know, they weren't done there.

The blockbuster deal a month later that replaced the unhappy Bynum with Dwight Howard was the final piece to a team quickly pegged as the favorite to take home the 2013 NBA championship.

Since then, so much has unraveled with the Lakers, from Nash's broken leg, to the highly publicized coaching change, to Pau Gasol's ailing knees and constant trade rumors, to Dwight Howard's antics and torn labrum, to Jordan Hill's serious hip injury (which was reported to be season-ending).

In this week's Trend Watch, we focus our attention on Nash in particular and take a look at his role on this Lakers team. Is he the same player he's been over the past decade? And how is his role affected by those around him?

We'll also highlight Nikola Vucevic's emergence in Orlando, Thomas Robinson's struggles near the rim, Luol Deng's incredible workload, and the sudden decline in Al Horford's free throw shooting.

On to the trends...

[h=3]Steve Nash | PG | Los Angeles Lakers[/h]Trend: Dwindling offensive role and assist rate
<offer>

<center>Nash</center>

You could point to any number of reasons why the legendary point guard is dishing out assists this season at his lowest rate in 10 years, be it the broken leg in the first week of the season, his advanced age, or the rash of injuries to key guys like Howard, Gasol and Hill.
<offer>But any way you slice it, Nash's numbers are glaringly down -- his points-per-40 minutes (13.0) and assists-per-40 minutes (10.6) are far below where they've been in any season since 2003-04. The biggest factor in all this is that the ball simply isn't in his hands nearly as often as it's been in the past.

Usage rate is the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes, and between 2002 and 2012 Nash never had a season when he finished under 20.6. This season, with Kobe so often dominating the ball and creating his own shots, Nash's usage rate is at 16.7. Since he's being used less, the two-time MVP's numbers (10.8 PPG, 8.8 APG) are not what we're used to seeing.

Now, things could certainly pick up as the season progresses and the Lakers work their way back to health, but the diminishing usage rate isn't an encouraging trend for a 38-year-old on the first year of a three-year, $27.9 million deal.

[h=3]Nikola Vucevic | C | Orlando Magic[/h]Trend: A double-double machine

When Howard was finally shipped out of Orlando in the four-team blockbuster deal over the summer, many believed the Lakers, Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers made out the best. Each of those three teams landed a headliner (Howard in L.A., Bynum in Philly, Andre Iguodala in Denver), while Orlando was left with a bunch of young pieces and draft picks.



<center>Vucevic</center>

Vucevic, the 22-year-old 7-footer taken No. 16 overall in the 2011 NBA draft, was an overlooked part of the deal who the Magic are now very glad to call one of their own. Even before starting power forwardGlen Davis went down to a shoulder injury in mid-December, Vucevic was on his way to a breakout season in his first year in Orlando. A gifted scorer and rebounder, he made his way on the league radar with 10 double-doubles in the Magic's first 25 games.

Since Davis' injury, though, he's pretty much become a dream for any fantasy basketball owner, rattling off eight double-doubles over the last 11 games (including six in a row) and averaging 14.8 points and 14.4 rebounds during that span. While you can't expect Vucevic to maintain those numbers when the Magic get Davis back, and that's expected to happen in the near future, one has to believe the big games Vucevic has strung together will work wonders for his confidence moving forward.

[h=3]Thomas Robinson | PF | Sacramento Kings[/h]
Trend: Struggling as a finisher

Robinson set a new career-high with 12 rebounds off the bench last week against Memphis and followed it up with back-to-back 10-rebound performances against Dallas and Miami. In a season full of distraction and disappointment in Sacramento, any progress the Kings' highly touted lottery pick makes after his slow start is certainly a welcome sign.



<center>Robinson</center>

The rookie out of Kansas continues to show glimpses of a bright future in this league. He's athletic. He runs the floor. He handles the ball. The main drawback to his game right now is his inability to develop an offensive identity. Midway through his first NBA season, it's clear that he still doesn't have one.

An alarming trend has been Robinson's inability to finish near the basket, which was supposed to be one of his primary strengths coming out of college. A closer look using HoopsData.com shows that entering last week, Robinson was shooting 57.7 percent on shots near the rim, ranking near the very worst among power forwards in the league. Robinson has the quickness, burst and athleticism to work his way to the basket, but if he's truly going to take his game to the next level he'll have to improve his touch and concentration around the rim. If and when that happens, he'll be on his way to a long career in this league.

[h=3]Luol Deng | SF | Chicago Bulls[/h]
Trend: The league's biggest workhorse

A number of marquee guys around the NBA are depended upon night in and night out for virtually all the minutes at their given position, but none seems to float under the radar more than Chicago's Luol Deng.



<center>Deng</center>

Would you believe that Deng is leading the NBA in minutes-per-game (40.2) for the second season in a row? He is -- the veteran Duke product played 39.4 minutes a game last season to top all players, and played 39.1 minutes a game the season before that (fourth in the league).

While Deng is just 27, he's quickly chewing up tread on the tires of his NBA career, and we have to believe it could cause him to wear down at an earlier age than most other NBA regulars. Interestingly, Bulls center Joakim Noah is sixth on this season's minutes-per-game list (38.4), which could be an indication that Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau still doesn't have a whole lot of trust in the team's reserves.

[h=3]Al Horford | PF/C | Atlanta Hawks[/h]
Trend: Suddenly poor from the free throw line

Horford never shot below 72.7 percent from the free throw line during his first five seasons in the league, but after missing most of last season with a torn pectoral muscle in his shoulder, the veteran big man out of Florida appears to have lost his shooting touch.



<center>Horford</center>

He enters today shooting 58.1 percent at the stripe, and it's impossible not to wonder if last season's injury and the long layoff could be the reason why he simply hasn't been the same free throw shooter this season.

Interestingly, a glance at Horford's recent game log reveals that his free throw struggles may be causing him to avoid contact; Horford has attempted just six free throws and made three over the past nine games despite playing more than 30 minutes in each contest. That's a staggeringly low number of attempts when you consider that he's averaged 2.8 free throws a game over the course of his career.
</offer></offer>

HacheMan · Jan 15, 2013

Notable home/road splits

By John Cregan | Special to ESPN.com

I miss John Hollinger.

I don't know how else to put it. It's been unfairly cruel and unusual to have his columns just go away. And right in the middle of a fantasy basketball season? I'm just empty inside. Now I know how Taylor Swift must feel those 8-12 times a year she goes through a serious breakup.

Hollinger just up and left in the middle of the night to join the Memphis Grizzlies, now free to unload Rudy Gay in the salary dump of his choosing. (Let it be the Washington Wizards, please. After all, Hollinger has hated every single transaction the Wizards have ever made in the history of everything. Why not even out the karma a little bit?)

But life goes on. The Hollinger void is being collectively filled on ESPN.com. The writing by Bradford Doolittle, Kevin Pelton and Neil Payne over on the NBA page this season has been beyond fantastic.

If you want to improve as a fantasy owner, I would recommend heading over to the NBA page and reading their columns. Constantly. Drive up their hits. Read anything affiliated with Basketball-Reference.com. Because reading them will help give you an edge many owners lack: an attention to statistical detail.

The data is out there, here on ESPN.com and other great sites such as Basketball-Reference.com, Basketball Prospectus, and 82games.com. You just have to possess the willingness to mine it.

When asked about what types of individual NBA trends best apply to owning and running a fantasy basketball team, I always start with splits. Specifically, home/road splits.

Discussion of performance splits is heavily discussed in fantasy baseball. But their uses are just as applicable in fantasy basketball. Players are fickle. Some are fickle bordering on mercurial.

Most players, regardless of sport, perform better at home. As a general rule, you're going to be better off starting a player in the middle of a homestand than at the tail end of a road trip.

The deeper view is to take a look at for players who buck the norm.

The players who fall outside of the normal aberration of home/road performance. The deviations. And there are some players -- very prominent fantasy names -- who are entirely different producers at home.

This is a statistical area you should pay increasing attention to as the season wears on, and especially for those of you bound for the playoffs. Because little differences matter, and matchups matter.

Whether you're in a head-to-head league or a rotisserie league, you still have lineup choices to make, and using home/road splits will give you a decided advantage over your opponents.

By way of example, let's start with Paul George, fantasy's equivalent to Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.

At home, in terms of raw efficiency, he's 11th in the NBA. 20.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 3.0 3-pointers, 1.4 steals, and 0.9 blocks. Borderline LeBronesque.

On the road? George is 77th.13.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.3 3-pointers, 2.0 steals, 0.5 blocks. Still not bad, but more DeMar DeRozan than LeBron James.

The reason is easy to dissect. George is more comfortable on offense at home, specifically with regard to his perimeter shooting. At home, George launches 6.3 3-pointers per game and makes 3.0 of them, for a gaudy .477 percentage. Crazy, fantasy-elite-level stuff.

On the road, he still averages a heady 4.8 3-point attempts per game, but only makes 1.3 of them. That's only a .260 clip. This lack of efficiency feeds over into his 2-point attempts and his free throw shooting (83 percent at home, 78 percent on the road.)

Perhaps due to this lack of confidence, George tries to facilitate more on the road. He averages almost a full assist more per game, but his turnovers also go up.

It's easy to chalk this up to youthful inconsistency, but the splits are so dramatic, so pronounced, that you can see why NBA people continue to drool over George's potential. He'll be a top-10 fantasy player when he learns to translate his at-home mindset to games played outside of Indiana.

But widely disparate splits aren't just the byproduct of youthful inconsistency. Max-contract vets can fall victim to the syndrome almost as easily.

I could write a series of columns on Deron Williams' fantasy rise and fall over the past few seasons, but let's just focus on the home/road aspect of his struggles.

Williams is 3 points per game better at home (18.0 versus 15.0 on the road.) His field goal percentage, while still a far cry from his Utah heights, is 42 percent at home while only 40 percent on the road. He's about one assist better at home, and posts a better assist-to-turnover ratio at home.

The big difference is in energy level. At home, he gets to the line. Williams, one of the NBA's better free throw shooters, averages almost 2 more attempts per game in Brooklyn. He averages almost a half a steal more per game at home.

Other players markedly better at home than on the road: J.J. Hickson, PF/C Portland Trail Blazers; Dwyane Wade, SG, Miami Heat; Nicolas Batum, SG/SF, Portland Trail Blazers; Kemba Walker, PG/SG, Charlotte BobcatsAl Jefferson, PF/C, Utah Jazz; Kenneth Faried, PF, Denver Nuggets; Nene, PF/C, Washington Wizards; Omer Asik, PF/C Houston Rockets; O.J. Mayo, SG, Dallas Mavericks; Stephen Curry, PG/SG, Golden State Warriors

Now as I said before, the norm is for players to play better at home. But there are some plus-road players as well, who digress from the norm for very specialized reasons.

Let's start with the Paul George of road play, Andrea Bargnani. He seems to be … unhappy in Toronto. There's no other way to put it.

Actually, there is. Bargnani is averaging 13.3 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.1 3-pointers per game at home. On the road, he's averaging 17.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.6 3-pointers per game.

But the most dramatic evidence lies in his field goal percentage. Bargnani is shooting just 29 percent in Toronto. On the road his field goal percentage swells to 45 percent, closer to his career norms. He takes fewer shots on the road, but makes more of them. His 3-point percentage goes up from 27 percent at home to 34 percent on the road.

Oddly enough, he blocks more shots (1.1 to 0.5) and rebounds a little better at home, but Bargnani is a player who needs to score to be productive, both in NBA and fantasy terms. He's been injured, but the evidence shows that his biggest problems are little north of his neckline. He's hurt, but he's also pouting. All in all, it's a classic "change of scenery" scenario; if he gets traded, look out.

Then there are the players who elevate on the road because their teams need the lift. These tend to be veteran players, and there aren't many of them capable of pulling off the trick, but I'll give you one big example: Tim Duncan.

Duncan is having one of the better late-career campaigns in recent memory. At home, Duncan is 16th in raw efficiency. That's amazing for a 36-year-old power forward who was supposed to be shuffling into role-player status. But on the road, Duncan climbs all the way to fifth.

The differences in the averages are subtler, but they're there. Duncan scores two points more per game on the road (18.0 versus 16.0 at home). But his field goal percentage is only marginally higher (51 percent on the road, 49 percent at home).

He averages less than a rebound per more, and the other volume-based numbers are nearly identical. The difference maker is Duncan's aggressiveness on the road.

I know the words "Tim Duncan" and "aggressiveness" have proven to be strange historical bedfellows, but the evidence is there in his free throws. Duncan averages 1.5 more free throws attempts per game on the road, and converts at a higher rate (82 percent versus 80 percent).

He also records more personal fouls on the road, which is probably part increased aggression, and part home cooking (and part him being Tim Duncan.) It's sort of Deron Williams' production in reverse, with Duncan elevating his game for team-based needs.

Other players markedly better on the road: Greivis Vasquez, PG, New Orleans Hornets; Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF, Denver Nuggets; Chris Bosh, PF/C Miami Heat; Joakim Noah, PF/C, Chicago Bulls; Tyson Chandler, C, New York Knicks; Al Horford, PF/C, Atlanta Hawks; Rajon Rondo, PG, Boston CelticsAndrei Kirilenko, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves

HacheMan · Jan 16, 2013

Four players poised to take off

By Seth Landman | Special to ESPN.com

Almost halfway through the season, it can often feel like players have settled into their roles, but there are always surprises, injuries, epiphanies and other changes on the horizon. Here are a few players you might find skyrocketing up the Player Rater rankings in the coming weeks. The first couple guys you'll have to acquire by trade; the rest you'll be able to find on the waiver wire.

(Current ranking based on per-game averages in parentheses.)

Millsap

Paul Millsap, SF/PF, Utah Jazz (63): About a month ago, I wrote about Millsap and pointed out that the big problem with his fantasy value wasn't his declining numbers in points and rebounds, but his precipitous fall in steals. This might not have been immediately apparent, but the idea is that a fall from 17 points per game to 15 points per game is much less a big deal than a decline in steals from 1.8 per game to 1.2 per game. Millsap put up big totals in steals for two straight seasons, but he had never done so prior, so it made sense to worry that his prowess in that area may have been fluky or circumstantial.

Fear not, Millsap fans! For the month of January, he's looking a lot more like the player he was last season, averaging 16.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.3 steals, 49.5 percent shooting from the floor and 81.6 percent shooting from the line (where he goes with some frequency). That's all really good stuff, but it's the steals that stand out. While it's only eight games, it's reason to think that his second half will be a lot better than his first. There's always the chance that he gets traded, but I'd be inclined to target him in trades in the hope that his quiet resurgence hasn't been noticed by the masses quite yet.

Gallinari

Danilo Gallinari, SF/PF, Denver Nuggets (71): Gallo was so bad for the first month of the season that his stats are only now starting to look like what we might have expected heading in, but the gap between his numbers on the season and his current level of play gives him some extra possible value. He still hasn't found his stroke from the free throw line, but his attempts per game have steadily gone up each month, and his January numbers across the board are pretty remarkable: 19.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 2.6 3-pointers and 48.1 percent shooting from the floor.

Those are the numbers, but anecdotally, Gallinari just looks like a different player. In particular, it feels like he's shooting the ball with a lot more confidence than he was early in the season. For instance, he's shooting over 40 percent on 3s since Dec. 1. He hasn't shot that well for a whole season since his rookie year (in which he played just 28 games), so I'm not expecting him to stay quite this hot, but he's a career 36.6 percent shooter from behind the arc, and even at that percentage, he has some serious value. If his free throw percentage down the stretch is anything like it's been the past couple of seasons, he'll probably be a top-40 fantasy player for the rest of the season.

Delfino

Carlos Delfino, SF, Houston Rockets (125): For a few weeks, I've been following Delfino's numbers very closely because he's a great 3-point shooter on a fast-paced team, a combination that should be gold in fantasy leagues. He's played eight games so far in January and is averaging 12.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.4 steals, and, ridiculously, 2.8 3s per game in just 26.1 minutes. Those averages are really good; you can absolutely use numbers like that in a fantasy league, unless you're in one of those leagues with just six teams where every player is basically an all-star.

The problem -- but it's not really a problem, if you think about it -- with Delfino is consistency. Not one of his actual performances over the seven games in January thus far looks much like those per-game numbers. One night he has two points on 1-for-6 shooting from the floor, and the next night he goes 8-for-11 and drops 22. No one has attempted as many 3s this season with fewer 2s than Delfino, which means that the vast majority of his field goal attempts are 3s. As such, in order to get a meaningful sample size, you have to look at his numbers over the course of many games, and doing that leads us right back to those per-game averages. When you have a player like Delfino, you have to just play him every night, because if you try to guess which nights he'll be hot, you'll most likely end up benching him on a night where he makes a ton of 3s. If you just play him every night, the averages will work out in your favor, and that makes him worth owning in most formats if you need a boost in the 3s category.

Robinson

Thomas Robinson, PF, Sacramento Kings (283): Robinson has been pretty terrible through the first half of his rookie season, to the point that he has actually had negative value in fantasy. That 283rd ranking is not a typo; I'm pretty sure it's the lowest ranking I've ever seen for a player I've written about in this column. I'm writing about him because he's becoming useful now, but also because I think he's going to become extremely useful as the season moves along.

For now, Robinson is a guy who is averaging 9.0 rebounds per game in just 20.6 minutes over his past five games. That's pretty darned good, and while 9.0 isn't a number that's going to change the scope of your roster, it's a number that's useful in the here and now. Over that same stretch, he's also scoring 8.0 points on 52.8 percent shooting from the floor, and those numbers don't hurt, either (even if they're far less than spectacular). His minutes, too, are ticking upward with no loss in efficiency, so there's a decent chance we're looking at a talented rookie who is starting to carve out his role in the league. The big upside here, though, is that the Kings are at the center of all kinds of trade discussions, and as their latest lottery pick, Robinson is unlikely to move. If one of the big men ahead of him in the rotation gets dealt, Robinson could be looking at 30-plus minutes per game, which would make his rebounding and scoring numbers even more valuable. If you need rebounds in the short term, he's worth a look, but the long-term potential is a good reason to grab him if you've got space on your bench.

PLAYER	POS	GP	FG%	3M	REB	AST	STL	TO	BLK	PTS	SCORE	TOTAL
LeBron James	SF	3	.528	1.0	7.5	7.3	2.1	3.1	0.7	29.7	25.5	76.4
Al Horford	C	4	.566	0.0	9.9	3.8	1.1	1.7	1.5	17.9	17.5	70.2
Josh Smith	PF	4	.477	0.3	9.4	4.3	1.6	2.3	1.7	18.6	16.1	64.4
Blake Griffin	PF	4	.540	0.1	9.2	3.3	0.8	2.3	0.5	20.8	16.1	64.2
Joakim Noah	C	4	.519	0.0	12.4	3.9	0.9	2.3	1.4	15.4	15.5	62.1
Marc Gasol	C	4	.512	0.0	8.1	3.8	1.3	2.1	1.8	13.7	13.2	52.8
Zach Randolph	PF	4	.466	0.1	10.1	2.6	1.3	1.9	0.3	15.4	12.8	51.2
Chris Bosh	PF	3	.510	0.1	9.5	2.2	1.0	2.1	0.8	20.2	16.5	49.4
Carlos Boozer	PF	4	.527	0.0	8.6	2.6	0.9	2.1	0.3	16.4	12.2	48.9
LaMarcus Aldridge	PF	3	.510	0.0	8.8	2.4	1.0	1.8	0.9	20.0	16.1	48.2
Kenneth Faried	PF	4	.606	0.0	8.6	1.0	1.0	1.6	1.2	12.7	11.9	47.5
DeMarcus Cousins	C	4	.450	0.0	9.3	2.5	1.3	2.7	0.9	15.7	11.6	46.3
David Lee	PF	3	.528	0.0	8.7	3.4	1.1	2.3	0.4	19.3	15.4	46.2
Kevin Garnett	C	4	.496	0.0	7.6	3.0	1.2	1.7	1.0	12.7	11.2	44.9
Serge Ibaka	PF	4	.571	0.0	8.1	0.4	0.5	1.0	3.4	10.3	10.9	43.4
Ryan Anderson	PF	3	.429	3.2	7.7	1.3	0.9	1.2	0.5	17.4	13.3	39.9
Tim Duncan	C	3	.492	0.0	8.7	3.7	0.7	1.8	1.3	14.0	12.8	38.4
Brook Lopez	C	3	.520	0.0	5.0	2.0	0.6	1.7	0.8	14.9	11.3	33.9
Jason Thompson	PF	4	.506	0.0	7.1	1.8	0.7	1.3	0.7	9.3	8.3	33.3
Glen Davis	C	4	.404	0.1	7.3	1.2	1.2	1.8	0.6	12.8	8.3	33.2
Nenê Hilario	C	4	.548	0.0	5.1	1.7	1.0	1.5	0.7	9.8	8.2	32.9
Nikola Pekovic	C	3	.566	0.0	7.5	0.8	0.7	2.7	0.9	14.7	10.8	32.4
Brandon Bass	PF	4	.483	0.0	5.1	0.9	0.6	1.2	1.0	10.9	8.1	32.2
Patrick Patterson	C	4	.468	0.0	5.4	1.2	0.6	1.1	1.0	11.1	8.0	31.9
David West	PF	3	.463	0.0	7.5	2.3	0.9	1.6	0.8	13.6	10.3	30.9

NBA Fantasy News 2012/2013

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

hacheman@therx.com

Forum statistics

Share this page