NBA Fading Fast for February week 2

[ATX]

usually put about 33% on ml's

NBA:

BOS +4.5 for 1.0% hoping for 5 but probably wont get there

ATL +6 for 1.0% Dallas shot over 55% last time out, same situation as when MIN paid the Hocks a visit, similar line, yet I was far more wary going against MIN +4.5/5 than Dallas. Dallas ATS on the road has me a bit worried as it seems they may be ready to cover, and Dallas in the past was an ATS machine vs East doormats, but too many points

MEM +5 for 1.0% Denver has a great home record, against the weak schedule it picked up from its spectacular season last year. I think DEN goes down here, and MEM has played recent road games tight.

 

[SSI]

atx, your bucking the trends.. dallas hasnt lost in atl since 98 and have owned them.. same for denver owning memphis.. you went with trend with celtics and against them on last 2..

 

[ATX]

right,

I generally go against trends. When a number looks too high I usually look at why, and many times it's because a trend is involved. If team A has beaten team B many times in a row I generally lean to it being more probable that it will reverse rather than continue. The team that owns another team tends to overlook or take them for granted from a psychological standpoint, plus the oddsmaker generally adds a point or so for that and b/c the public often will take the dominator anyways. But that is not the main reason I make a play, it is just one thing that I look at. For ATL, if they were +4.5 to MIN, a much stronger road team, why are they +5.5/6 to Dallas? previous meetings probably. plus add in the fact that DAL shot over 55% in their last game, as did MIN before they lost to ATL, that is an angle by itself. I have all these games closer to pick than what the line is currently, and all 3 could be blowout losers, but I would take all 3 of these again.

 

[SSI]

guess this relates to my stock and commodity trading, trend being one's friend.. ever go against a soybean trend -- atx? can you say steamroller..

all i can say against your statement is (Matchups), some teams play well against others.. cant explain why team A consistently beats Team B but they cant beat Team C.. matchups..

 

[ATX]

yeah, every situation is different. I usually look at quite a few things and try to weight out the pros and cons. But with all the justification in the world for a wager, teams like ATL still blow leads in the 2nd half by being outscored by 20 at home in the 4th by low scoring teams from Houston. And teams like GS that in the past have avged close to 100 at home, find ways to score 2 points in a quarter. In the NBA it is almost chaos, as it seems what is unlikely to happen seems to occur frequently and the seeming certainties...well, I havent been seeing too many LOCK threads lately.

 

[joeycash]

atx sas at houstn any opinions

 

[ATX]

I might have played SA +1

I dont like fading SA on the road

the big win vs SAC has me off SA

I am not trusting HOU here

ton of money on SA

which almost has me liking HOU +2.5 or 3 if avail

lean to the under, but I have a feeling it goes over

SA not good at the FT line and that may come into play here

I am waiting until the half, but I'm looking at this game some more to see if I cant make a reason to get on HOU for a smaller amount, could be an OT game maybe some change on that prop.

 

[joeycash]

i am HUGE on Houston

 

[ShedClub]

ATX, great write up and awesome info.

Thanks

 

[ATX]

no problem, I'll try to do it when I have a chance

GS under 198 for .6%
heavy leans to MIL, Utah

 

[ATX]

Chi +7 for .6%

 

[ATX]

GS +6 for .6%

 

[ATX]

DAL under 205 for .6%

 

[ATX]

MIA +3 for .6%
same at +2.5

 

[ATX]

MIL +3.5 for 1.0%

 

[ATX]

DAL -6 for .8%

 

[ATX]

DET +5 for .5%

 

[ATX]

WAS +6 for 1.0%

Mem under 201.5 for .7%

 

[ATX]

GS -5 for .6%

 

[ATX]

NO -5 for .5%