nba ats streak thread....

[rivercitybirdie]

seen some interesting threads in the past on ATS streaks... thought i'd start tonight. i have seen one score already (toronto) but i'll keep it.... really looking to track this to see if it's promising as opposed to thinking it's some great system.

the public's bias is probably to ride streaks (winners and losers) whereas my instinct is to play them to end. my main sport is NCAAF FYI.

here are the current streaks starting tonight.... no play if each team is on a streak, even if the one is much bigger (minimum 3 games for a streak anyway).

3 wins - none
4 wins - toronto.... portland
5 wins - none
6+ wins none...

3losses - NYK
4 losses - none
5 losses - denver
6+ losses - detroit (6), LAC (6) .... not sure why my source shows 6 when LAC seem to be 0-7 ATS and first game wasn't a close non-cover...

all of the others look correct

so we have raptors -11. portland -6.5

 

[rivercitybirdie]

so 4 wins ATS = 0-2 live. toronto and portland both losers....

so we now have

3 ATS win mil, orl
3 ats loss nyk
5 ats loss denver
7 ats loss lac, detroit (looks like my source got corrected)

orlando, denver, detroit, nyk play tonight. but nyk-orlando play each other so only denver, detroit as plays. i grade based on closing line.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

sorry, i can grade orlando and nyk as picks as they are opposites. just no play if both teams are on 3+ same streaks......

so very close to all games being grade... orl W, nyk L, det W, den L

3 ATS W 1-0
4 ATS W 2-0
3 ATS L 0-1
5 ATS L 0-1
6+ ATS L 1-0

 

[rivercitybirdie]

here's a cut and paste from my ats streak website source . i think it's just memphis tonight.....

LA Clippers	7L
Denver	6L
Orlando	4W
New York	4L
LA Lakers	3W
Milwaukee	3W
Memphis	3L
Minnesota	3L

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[rivercitybirdie]

sorry, i can grade orlando and nyk as picks as they are opposites. just no play if both teams are on 3+ same streaks......

so very close to all games being grade... orl W, nyk L, det W, den L

3 ATS W 1-0
correction 4 ATS W 0-2 NOT 2-0
3 ATS L 0-1
5 ATS L 0-1
6+ ATS L 1-0

memphis is looking like an ATS loss....

 

[rivercitybirdie]

So ATS W streaks are 1-2. L streaks are 1-3

A bunch tonight

6L denver
4L nyk
3L minn

4W orlando
3w lal mil

 

[rivercitybirdie]

So ATS W streaks are 1-2. L streaks are 1-3

A bunch tonight

6L denver W
4L nyk L
3L minn L


4W orlando W
3w lal L mil L

i missed saturday picks. will try to resurrect them if i can.

sunday streaks.... orlando 6w, detroit 3w... nyk 5L, memphis 5L... only NYK play today. and they ATS W

 

[rivercitybirdie]

here's what i came up with for saturday's games:

memphis 4L L
minn 4L L
LAC 7L W

orl 5W W
SAS 3W L
GSW 3W W

incl. today's NYK W, i have ATS win streaks at 3-6... ATS lose streaks at 5-6... i think big losing streaks are winners (but small sample size and this is not back to start of season either. inherited LAC and det already on big losing streaks)

 

[rivercitybirdie]

not alot of streaks right now.....

orl 6w
memphis 5L
det 3w
miami 3L

and they all play tonight... gonna start tracking games against each other. but 2 are both on winning streaks so those are no plays.

 

[rolltide]

you know you can back test any of this, right? no need to track and guess just make a query and back test it....

i'm not quite sure what you're looking to do but, for example, if you want to see the history of a team on a 3-6 games ats winning streak playing an opponent on a 3-6 game ats losing streak it would be:

6 >= ats streak >= 3 and -6 <= o:ats streak <= -3

SU:	344-310 (0.19, 52.6%)
ATS:	302-338-14 (-1.09, 47.2%)	avg line: -1.3
O/U:	311-334-9 (-0.15, 48.2%)	avg total: 193.6

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ANY team on a 3+ game covering streak vs one on a 3+ game non-cover streak would be:

ats streak >= 3 and o:ats streak <= -3

SU:	383-343 (0.37, 52.8%)
ATS:	334-373-19 (-1.08, 47.2%)	avg line: -1.5
O/U:	344-373-9 (-0.34, 48.0%)	avg total: 193.6

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