NBA AGREED PLAYS

[mikechad]

I'm not to sure how this will end up, but I will explain what I'm thinking, and we will see how it works out.

The idea is to come up with picks that 100% of us agree on.
Yes, I know this is literally impossible.
But, a good example is Zap and Tater's agreed biggies. Not to many, if any take the opposite.

NOW FOR SOME RULES:

First rule is:

DO NOT POST A PICK JUST FOR THE SAKE OF POSTING.
THIS IS NOT A COMPETITION OF WHO THE BEST CAPPER IS!

Second rule is:

IF 2 PEOPLE PICK THE OPPOSITE TEAM, THEN THE PICKS ARE VOID.
EXAMPLE: CHI @ MIAMI. I TAKE MIAMI -10.5 AND RIGHT SIDE SPORTS TAKES CHI +10.5.
THIS GAME WOULD NOT BE AN AGREED PLAY.

Third rule is:

If the example above happens, and one of us decides to back off, then the pick is on again. I might have missed some key points in my capping that RSS gives, and decide that I agree, therefore voiding my pick. In other words I believe CHI is the play. Although, this should never happen because if you made a pick, then you would have covered all the angles in your capping.

Fourth rule is:

Give reasoning for your picks, and make sure you only post your strongest pick. If you have more than one, you can post them, but, HONOUSTLY, how often do you have strong picks?

Fifth rule is:

Don't post statements like "I agree with your pick LEAF, I'm on it as well." Unless you wish to add some capping info.

Also, don't post statements like "I agree with your pick, BUT, I would be careful because.........................."
THIS MEANS YOU REALLY DON'T AGREE WITH THE PICK AND THEREFORE SHOULD PICK THE OPPOSITE, MAKING THE GAME VOID.

Well, that's all the rules I have. If anyone would like to add to it, or revise it in any way, feel free to comment.
I've stated before in my threads, how thankful I am to Mr. Tanaka for his input when I first started my system.

LETS MAKE THIS A TEAM EFFORT AND SEE IF WE CAN HIT CLOSE TO 70% ON OUR AGREED PICKS!!

I BELIEVE IN THIS FORUM, AND I HOPE YOU GUYS DO TO.

LET THE GAMES BEGIN!

#1 LEAF FAN

 

[mikechad]

MINNESOTA -1

Lost the last 2 to Houston. REVENGE FACTOR!
Houston sitting in the 7th spot with no where to go.
Minny clinging to the 2nd spot and can easily drop to 4th place.
statement game for Minny. It could be a Minny vs. Houston 1st round!
Ming meets his match, Garnett will outplay him. He is too fast for Ming.

 

[MrsCheater]

hmmmm dont know how much water i hold, but i like miami here...miami has been good to me lately and found this info from covers to back me...im taking miami -9.5

• Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
• CHI is 0-4 ATS in their last four overall.
• Bulls are 1-6 ATS in their last seven away.
• MIA is 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 overall.
• Heat is 25-12 ATS in their last 37 at home.
• MIA is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings

 

[markymark+]

I like the HEAT -9.5 as well!! They are:

22-9 ats playing teams w/losing record
25-12 ats as home
20-4 ats as a fav.
They also just fit my system that I use.


#1 Leaf...is Minnesota your only system play today?? (Just read your thread for your other picks! Hope you'll post those separately daily.Thanks!)


RSS

 

[mikechad]

My system plays will be posted separately.
Minny is my strongest play today and that is why I posted it here. But remember, if Minny was no stronger than any of my other plays, than I wouldn't post it here. Also, read the rules, cause if anyone likes Houston tonight, please state your case and the pick is void.
This does not mean I will not bet on Minny, it only means that the pick for this thread is void.
At the end of the day, all the picks might be void. Understand?

 

[markymark+]

Leaf...one question about your plays. I see that you give out two separate records for your system plays. I'm a little confused on that. Can you clarify that for me?? Which are the plays that have gone 41-2? Are any of those plays going today?? Thanks!


RSS

 

[tatehill2000]

First,,I never Play sides,,,, Ironically I decided to change that this morn,, I took Minni Early in th AM ,,, they are in a MUST WIN situation,,, they Lost the matchup to Houston last time they Playd,, They Know whats comeing to them from the ""NOW GELLING TOGETHER and PLAYING LIKE A TEAM LAKERS,,,""
I see a Ghetto GRUDGE MATCH here,,, Spree, and teh Greatest NBA Player Garnett, will be Dropping PAIN BOMBS on Houston tonight,,,
(I also have it as a small OVER)

tater

 

[SportSavant]

Nice Call on Minny as the Line is now 3.5...Call me a Contrarion but if she goes to 4 I may just be forced to Bet on Houston...Not that I have strong sound reasoning...simply love to bet against the move, especially the late move.

As for Best bet I like the Cav's + 12.5 in San Antonio. This is alot of points for a team that shows that they can compete on any given night. Also coming off the big win the Other day against NJ where the kid got 41 points. Hopefully Motivation will be high as the growing Cavaliers match up with one of the leagues premier teams....If not, perhaps the 12.5 points will be enough.

This line opened up last night at 11 & is now 12.5 so also enjoy the extra 1.5 points of course.

 

[mikechad]

RSS, I will clarify this here, but for future, I want to try and leave this thread just for the agreed plays cause I would like to try and keep a record of our "group" agreed plays.

Anyway, here is the way my records are calculated.

System record: 44wins - 2loses

All my system picks are based on picking a team for 3 games in a row.
eg. tonight I have Minny for $50. If they cover, I get a system win. If they lose, than the next game is a double down bet, $100, on Minny again.
If they don't cover again, then I double down, $200, one last time on Minny.
If they lose again, NOW it is a system lose.
So, out of doing this 46 times I have lost 2 times.

The "ALL SYSTEM PICKS" record, is simple every individual game.
In the case above the record would be 0-3.
My record, documented, is 44-26.

Profit works like this:

MINNY, WIN 1ST SYSTEM BET: +$50
MINNY LOSE 1ST, WIN 2ND SYSTEM BET: -$55, +$100 = +$45
MINNY LOSE 1ST & 2ND, WIN 3RD SYSTEM BET: -$55, -$110, +200 = +$35
MINNY, LOSE ALL THREE: -$55, -$110, -$220 = -$385

I've said this before, Please understand, I am capping not only the teams first game, but also their next 2. I have to like all 3 games in order to make it a system pick.

Some have asked the question of why do I double down? Why don't I just make all bets the same amount?

For one HUGE reason:
If my 1st bet loses, it makes the next bet that much stronger!

Also, if I was to bet the same amount every pick ($50), I would have a profit of $770, instead of my system profit of $1421.
Hey guys, I never said, nor will I ever say my system is anywhere close to perfect. It is making me a profit, and that's the bottom line.
I'm a small better compared to some of the wagers I see in this forum.
If I was to make my initial bet $200, I would have a profit of 4 times the amount, $1421 x 4 = $5684
I am happy, and stress free at the pace I am going.

Hope this helps.

Again, lets please try to keep this thread for "NBA AGREED PLAYS" only.
If you guys have any comments for me, then post on my thread titled
"SYSTEM PICKS FOR MONDAY"

thanks everyone

 

[mikechad]

In this thread, you can pick sides and/or totals. Just make sure you only post solid plays here.
Tater, try not to put extra picks that are not your strong picks. (the small over in the Minny game).
Reason is, someone may like the Under in that game and give some solid reasoning for it. But then the pick would be void because you like the over. Understand?

later

 

[Zapster]

Well....for what it is worth, my best play today is the Chicago UNDER 185.5

Since my picks are usually a product of mathematical calculations, in most cases I can't offer a write-up, other than offer my calculated total.

I *can* say that I went 7-0 on plays I posted yesterday and that since my hiatus of a month ago I have gone 34-21 on games that differ from the line by 6 or more points (more about that in site promos), so the system seems to be firing on all cylinders these days. Using that same exact method, I calculate the Chicago game at 176 so it is 9.5 below the line.

Tate and I have gone 20-11 this season (documented in our thread) on agreed "biggies" and this play fits into that category.

Leaf....I hope this post fits what you are looking for in this thread. If not, lemme know

 

[tatehill2000]

Got it leaf,,,, I am slow,,, hahah,,, I will get it,,,
My best Play of the day then is NY OVER,,,,
tater

 

[mikechad]

SO FAR HERE ARE THE AGREED PLAYS FOR TONIGHT, UNLESS ANYONE PICKS THE OTHER SIDE OF ANY OF THESE.

MINNY -1
MIAMI -9.5
CAV'S +12.5
CHI U185.5
NY O177.5

 

[Zapster]

I agree with New York OVER 177.5

I calc that one at 183.7

No opinion on any of the sides.

 

[ekinwang]

i m not sure if this is against the MINNY -1 play, but the line has moved to MINNY -4. at this, i must say houston looks like a strong pick here. yao has been playing amazing of late and the rockets pulled off a great win at mil yesterday. houston is going to come and play

 

[PoorBasterd]

I don't know if it means anything to ya'll if I post a play (seeing as how I'm not an established capper.) But I like the idea of this topic so I hope I can contribute.

Washington is approaching the end of a long road trip. A west coast swing in which they've gone 1-3, having only beat the Clippers by 9. They lost to Utah by 8, a hot Golden St team by 21, and a struggling Kings squad by 8. In the last four games, WASH= 87.5 ppg, OPP= 94.5 ppg.
The Suns go home tonight after a four game road trip where they went 2-2, ending on a sour note, getting spanked by the Spurs by 29 on Saturday. In the four road games, the Suns averaged 93 ppg a little less than what WAS has allowed on their road trip. Now they go home where they should score more than they do on the road. Phoenix enjoys some "home cookin" tonight as they get prepared for a nice 3 day break before playing Memphis on Friday.

Phoenix -7

 

[Piranha]

Memphis/Atlanta under 195

Very strong play for me as I calculated that Memphis will score around 93-95 and Atlanta 86-91 giving a max total of 186.

 

[Zapster]

I'm with Piranha on that one.

I come up with 192 for the Memphis-Atlanta game, which is an Under....and I know that Tater has this as an Under as well.

 

[SportSavant]

Clevland + 12.5
Houston + 4 are my two official releases for this fine evening...

 

[mikechad]

UPDATE:
NOT A GREAT NIGHT, 3-5.

MINNY -1 WON
MIAMI -9.5 LOST
CAVS +12.5 WON
CHI U185.5 LOST
NY 0177.5 WON
PHOENIX -7 LOST
MEMPHIS U195 LOST
HOUSTON +4 LOST (THIS GAME SHOULD BE A VOID BECAUSE BOTH SIDES WERE TAKIN, BUT THE LINES WERE SIGNIFICANTELY DIFFERENT, THAT WE WILL COUNT THEM BOTH)

I CAN'T BELIEVE THAT NO ONE HAD THE OTHER SIDE OF ANY OF THESE GAMES OR TOTALS.
I AM NOT ASKING FOR ARGUMENTS, JUST HANDICAPPING POINTS THAT WOULD VOID SOME PICKS. WHO CAN HONOUSTLY ADMIT THAT ALL THESE PICKS ARE STRONG.

THIS THEAD MIGHT BE A BIT CONFUSING. I'M NOT SURE IF YOU GUYS WANT TO CONTINUE IT OR NOT?
I STARTED THIS THREAD DO TO MY STUPID FORCED BETS I HAVE MADE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
ALL THESE BETS LOOKED GOOD TONIGHT, SO I DON'T FEEL THEY WERE FORCED.

WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK, TOSS IT OR KEEP IT?