2nd halves are completely different than full games
it saves me time, I dont have to remember to say "this is a second half"
last year in the playoffs a couple people said they were getting too confused with 2nd halves and full games mixed together, and it is easier for me as well to track systems that I use
what difference does it make lol
it saves me time, I dont have to remember to say "this is a second half"
last year in the playoffs a couple people said they were getting too confused with 2nd halves and full games mixed together, and it is easier for me as well to track systems that I use
what difference does it make lol
did they really offer PHX +230 during HT? was it pinnacle?
ATx, how did you do with those -1.5 dog plays overall in baseball last season? and do you mind telling me when was not the best time to play dogs? April, august and september? did you track the stats for the dogs the season before? a lot of questions, only if you have time
ATx, how did you do with those -1.5 dog plays overall in baseball last season? and do you mind telling me when was not the best time to play dogs? April, august and september? did you track the stats for the dogs the season before? a lot of questions, only if you have time
Antonio,
OLY had +230, it quickly moved to +220 then +210. I saw +213 at pinnacle.
the -1.5's kicked ass for quite a while. they are best in the earlier part of the season. they may not do as well next year, I'm pretty sure there have been fewer one run games over the last couple of years than historically (last 20) so that is how I saw value and came up with the stupid idea to play the alternate runlines and make money. For the first 6 or 7 weeks I didnt play many regular moneylines, just the -1.5's on dogs. It worked a little too well, so I decided to cut wager size for the remainder of the season and 'hedge' with reg ML's and continue for the remainder of the season. I dont really track how dogs do by month or anything like that, I dont really see much of a correlation by year, I could be wrong as I simply dont track that type of thing. I pretty much just look at the lines and if I see 10 cents I try to pick it up, if I see more value I wager a little more. Pretty much the same with PHX 2nd half tonight, but fwiw road dog 2H Ml's do not do well, which is why I went so small. One thing in baseball, my strategy does not work in September before the playoffs, it is like a rogue month. It seemed that a LOT of favorites covered in the 3 or 4 weeks before the playoffs. Not sure if it is like that every year, but it has been unpleasant the last two for me, but I didnt wager that much in Sept comparatively speaking. My strategy next year will be simply to read the books in Sept and not try to cash on lines that are 'off'. Teams give up, and some of the pitchers getting starts are horrid, etc. and that may be a pretty good causation. This is out of order, but some of those -1.5's on teams like the Rangers were a joke. I guess a lot of people were taking the other favored team -1.5, but several times, even late in the season they were offering close to +300 on a team that could score 10.
OLY had +230, it quickly moved to +220 then +210. I saw +213 at pinnacle.
the -1.5's kicked ass for quite a while. they are best in the earlier part of the season. they may not do as well next year, I'm pretty sure there have been fewer one run games over the last couple of years than historically (last 20) so that is how I saw value and came up with the stupid idea to play the alternate runlines and make money. For the first 6 or 7 weeks I didnt play many regular moneylines, just the -1.5's on dogs. It worked a little too well, so I decided to cut wager size for the remainder of the season and 'hedge' with reg ML's and continue for the remainder of the season. I dont really track how dogs do by month or anything like that, I dont really see much of a correlation by year, I could be wrong as I simply dont track that type of thing. I pretty much just look at the lines and if I see 10 cents I try to pick it up, if I see more value I wager a little more. Pretty much the same with PHX 2nd half tonight, but fwiw road dog 2H Ml's do not do well, which is why I went so small. One thing in baseball, my strategy does not work in September before the playoffs, it is like a rogue month. It seemed that a LOT of favorites covered in the 3 or 4 weeks before the playoffs. Not sure if it is like that every year, but it has been unpleasant the last two for me, but I didnt wager that much in Sept comparatively speaking. My strategy next year will be simply to read the books in Sept and not try to cash on lines that are 'off'. Teams give up, and some of the pitchers getting starts are horrid, etc. and that may be a pretty good causation. This is out of order, but some of those -1.5's on teams like the Rangers were a joke. I guess a lot of people were taking the other favored team -1.5, but several times, even late in the season they were offering close to +300 on a team that could score 10.
one other thing...
my really good results in the first few weeks were skewed a bit b/c I faded Schilling, Johnoson, and Pedro early and often. I was wagering 1% on a lot of those alt rl's, and made quite a bit riding Ponson and some on Halladay and TOR and Bal in general. Also historically strong home teams even when favored were getting a nice + on the -1.5 early on.
my really good results in the first few weeks were skewed a bit b/c I faded Schilling, Johnoson, and Pedro early and often. I was wagering 1% on a lot of those alt rl's, and made quite a bit riding Ponson and some on Halladay and TOR and Bal in general. Also historically strong home teams even when favored were getting a nice + on the -1.5 early on.
yeah, i reckon the bookies had been more or less underrated the chance of these dogs covering -1.5 while they win, the value are therefore overpriced consider road dogs if win will cover if not 50%, i would say 40% of the -1.5, therefore the +150 more than the dog price is a little generous.
excellent post by the way, can i have your email address?
excellent post by the way, can i have your email address?
DAL over 102.5 for .4%
LA ML +161 for .1%
atxpl@webtv.net
atxpl@hotmail.com
I would send it to both as I check one at one place and the other at the others.
LA ML +161 for .1%
atxpl@webtv.net
atxpl@hotmail.com
I would send it to both as I check one at one place and the other at the others.
Guys:
On Sept. 1st, baseball teams are allowed to expand their roster from 25 to 40 players to allow them to give some of their minor league players a chance to show their stuff. Many teams put in their subs, like ATX mentioned, to give them better experience. This leads to excellent opportunities for the bettor.
I looked at which teams were scoring few runs to determine when to bet against them. Usually, if a team in contention was playing a team like this it was profitable to bet the -1.5 RL.
One word of caution, I was betting against Texas for a while when they started to show some effort. I had to back off from betting them so teams can change during the month of Sept.
On Sept. 1st, baseball teams are allowed to expand their roster from 25 to 40 players to allow them to give some of their minor league players a chance to show their stuff. Many teams put in their subs, like ATX mentioned, to give them better experience. This leads to excellent opportunities for the bettor.
I looked at which teams were scoring few runs to determine when to bet against them. Usually, if a team in contention was playing a team like this it was profitable to bet the -1.5 RL.
One word of caution, I was betting against Texas for a while when they started to show some effort. I had to back off from betting them so teams can change during the month of Sept.
i sometimes keep telling myself not to look too deep into the details, especially when we are only splitting our 3-4% from bankroll to play the whole card every day. I for once tracked down all the stats and figures but it didnt do me any favour at the end of the day. now i only look at the stats out of interest.
pretty much my feeling.
A lot of the time I just look at the lines and if it looks off I take it. On most wagers I do look a tad bit deeper, but I actually do better the less I look at detail. I added a few angles for football season, and so far it hasnt added any benefit at all. Not sure if it is the "year" or just that I tried to fix something that wasnt broken. Last year, many times I simply looked at the lines in the paper and called a few shops and took the best price. I actually did very well.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> i sometimes keep telling myself not to look too deep into the details, especially when we are splitting only our 3-4% from bankroll a day to play the whole card <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I think a lot of it depends on what level of return a person is satisfied with. I used to wager at least 1% on everything, rarely more than 2% on anything. I drastically cut wager size after the NBA playoffs last year, I was really worried I would start giving a lot back after 10 really good months. During baseball I averaged a really nice return every week in the regular season risking an average of .3% to .4% on a very large number of wagers. At first my reasoning was to wait for a losing streak and then increase it up to a little higher level, it just never really happened. Then I got used to the lack of risk, and I'm still trying to get used to having more than 10% of BR outstanding. Exact same thing in hockey so far, I want to take advantage of my luck there so far, but as soon as I increase wager size I know I will lose. I do plan on wagering 1% to 1.5% on some NBA games, and .5% on some. Right now, I consider this more of a warmup until I see some more numbers. Just my thoughts right now.
A lot of the time I just look at the lines and if it looks off I take it. On most wagers I do look a tad bit deeper, but I actually do better the less I look at detail. I added a few angles for football season, and so far it hasnt added any benefit at all. Not sure if it is the "year" or just that I tried to fix something that wasnt broken. Last year, many times I simply looked at the lines in the paper and called a few shops and took the best price. I actually did very well.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> i sometimes keep telling myself not to look too deep into the details, especially when we are splitting only our 3-4% from bankroll a day to play the whole card <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I think a lot of it depends on what level of return a person is satisfied with. I used to wager at least 1% on everything, rarely more than 2% on anything. I drastically cut wager size after the NBA playoffs last year, I was really worried I would start giving a lot back after 10 really good months. During baseball I averaged a really nice return every week in the regular season risking an average of .3% to .4% on a very large number of wagers. At first my reasoning was to wait for a losing streak and then increase it up to a little higher level, it just never really happened. Then I got used to the lack of risk, and I'm still trying to get used to having more than 10% of BR outstanding. Exact same thing in hockey so far, I want to take advantage of my luck there so far, but as soon as I increase wager size I know I will lose. I do plan on wagering 1% to 1.5% on some NBA games, and .5% on some. Right now, I consider this more of a warmup until I see some more numbers. Just my thoughts right now.
