NBA 2024

[truthstorm]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 0-4
Totals: Ov 0-4, Un 0-0
Sides: 0-0

Gave a few picks in my college thread because NBA play was going to be a temporary thing (I don't like or follow the NBA, didn't start 'capping until a few weeks ago) but I'm going to try to 'cap daily so I figured I'd start a post in the correct section.

Lost with the Ov in OK/NO last night, 0-4 now, all Overs.
I would Fade me until that 0 disappears but you can't fade yourself. Others can Fade your posted play but you really can't Fade yourself.
Example - say you have a handicapping method that calls for the Over, you've been losing on the Over so you bet Under. But as soon as you buy the Under THAT IS your play. You didn't Fade anything.
(Yeah, I know, some weird thinking going on this Wed morning. Some days be like that.)

Anyway . . .

What's wrong with this picture?
Using two programs (P1 ad P2 for short), I have two different methods to identify Wrong Favs, one to find sides to play, and one to find Ov/Un plays.
WF P1 is 2-7 at Hm, 3-7 on the Rd.
WF P2 is 0-0 (first game to qualify goes tonight.)
The method for sides is 3-6 on Favs and 0-1 on Dogs.
Overs are 12-24, Unders are 3-3.

I have a solid Fade on Overs at 12-24, sides at 3-6, and WF's at 5-15, yet I'm 0-4???
Again - WTF is wrong with that picture??!!

Well, first, I've been tracking and charting the plays but not playing them (I really don't like the NBA, even with money on a game I find myself changing the channel to find something more interesting to watch.)
Second, I've been picking my spots on the rare occassion that I do play one. And at 0-4 I've clearly been doing a lousy job at it.
Looking at records for the various plays I'm clearly leaving money on the table. So, since college is coming to an end I'm going post and play all games that qualify, and hope reversion toward the mean doesn't screw me.

Today I have one WF that qualifies, and two sides.
The WF P2 (record 0-0) play is Chi vs Indy. The sides are NY and Ind (both Favs, record 3-6.)
Fading NY, but I'm going to give Indy a chance.
Why take Indy and go against a 3-6 spot? Because of my college 'capping.
When P2 says a team qualifies as a WF but P1 says their opponent covers the spread by at least 5pts or > the posted #, the WF P2 record is 9-26; my best play.
Indy is -2', P#1 says Indy wins by > Double Digits.
Will the W% carry over from college to pro? Hell if I know, but I'm gonna find out.

Sounds complicated but it's really not.
And for those who don't like to read, posters who just want to know the plays and not the reasons/stats and stuff, you can just skip to the bottom of the post to decide if you want to play or fade.

Good luck with your play today.

Chi +13'
Indy -2'

 

[truthstorm]

That's supposed to read:
Tor +13'
Indy -2'

 

[truthstorm]

Hey, look! I got a reply!
(Oops. Never mind.)

 

[monte97]

NBA is by far my worst sport. Even when I tail someone I suck. I seldom play.

Good luck.

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 0-2
Record: 0-6
Totals: Ov 0-4, Un 0-0
Sides: 0-2; Favs 0-1 Dogs 0-1

Lost both plays last night.
Disappointing because in both games I was real close, within reach of covering against the spread . . .
AT THE TWO MINUTE MARK OF THE FIRST QUARTER!!!
After that it was Blowout City.
Chi won by 26 pts and NY won by 44.
So yeah, close.

Sports betting over the course of the season is streaky, you'll win a few in a row, you'll lose a few in a row, but I can't remember ever starting a season with a 6 game L streak. I'm okay with diggin' a hole, it happens sometimes. I just hope the hole doesn't turn out to be six feet deep by the end of the season.

Two games qualify tonight, NO as a WF (record is 1-0 on this spot) and Bos/Atl Un (3-3.)
No real edge in either spot, so, burdened with a 0-6 deficit I'll take the day off and wait for a better play to jump on.

When you're down DON'T increase the number of plays you make and DON'T increase your wager size.
More times than not that will only make things worse.

Good luck with your play today.

 

[monte97]

If the NBA is your sport to bet, yes keep at it. The laws of average are now hugely on your side.

 

[indiana]

T. storm....here's to a solid turn around day buddy....
BOL with your Thurs. action....indy

 

[truthstorm]

Monte - the NBA is definitely NOT my sport.
I don't like it, try to watch it but even with money on the game I find myself changing channels looking for something that doesn't bore me.

But I'm going to try capping it, very small unit size dollar-wise, since I don't like the sport and haven't been very good at it thus far.
I'm just playing for the "chess game" aspect of sports betting, to see if I can beat the books (so far, at 0-6, the answer is, obviously, No!)

Indy - thanks. I hope that "Turnaround Day" is today because I'm going to need it. It's time to blow things up as I'm about to explain.

Two different messages from my posts above:

1 - Looking at records for the various plays I use I'm clearly leaving money on the table. So, since college is coming to an end I'm going post and play all games that qualify, and hope reversion toward the mean doesn't screw me.

2 - When you're down DON'T increase the number of plays you make.

I didn't play the two spots that qualified yesterday, they split, so I saved a little juice.

Here's the problem - usually only 3 or 4 games qualify each day. But today I have NINE spots that qualify. So, am I going to do as I said and play and post all the games that qualify, or am I going to follow my advice and not increase the number of plays I make?

I may regret it but I'm going Scorched Earth today. It's blow up time.
Insanity time.
Foolishness time.
Fuck sticking your toe in the water/jump right into the deep end of the pool sink or swim time.

Disaster time??!!

Fun time?
Only time will tell.

Every one of the plays I chart has a losing record except one (and instead of riding with that lone winning play I'm fading that one, too!)

Below are the picks (the teams I bought, not the team to fade), lines, and records for the plays:


Ind -4, Sac -1 (3-7)

Phx -2 (2-0) Why not play ON the only spot that has a winning record? Because Phx is in the same spot that Indy was in two nights ago and that one worked out so well for me I'm riding it again. (Yes, "worked out well for me" is sarcasm.)

Det Un 228, GS Un 220, Dal Un 231' (12-24)

LAC -1', Cle -8, (4-7)

Utah +8 (0-1)

May God have mercy on my soul.
Pray for me.

 

[indiana]

T. storm....gt'em today buddy...BOL......indy

 

[truthstorm]

Indy - well we got ' em. Thanks for the BOL.

Recap: 6-3
Record: 6-9

I'll update the breakdown of Over/Under, sides/totals, favs/dogs in my next post, got some Saturday morning errands to run and I want to make it back home in time for the UFL kickoff.

Hope I don't ever have to play nine games again but I got away with it last night. Got the zero removed from the win column and chopped my six games under .500 deficit in half. So, not a bad night.

Only one game qualifies today, Atlanta as a Wrong Fav, and in a first for the season it qualifies for both methods I used to identify Wrong Favorites.
One has a record of 2-7, which would say Fade Atlanta, but the other has a record of 3-0 which would say take Atlanta.
So there's a conflict on the play, which is enough to make me say I'm taking the day off.
My brain hurts from yesterday's nine plays anyway so it's a good time for a rest.

Hope to have something tomorrow, good luck with your play today.

 

[indiana]

T. storm...well done buddy....
continued success today...indy

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 0-0
Record: 6-9

Totals: Ov 0-4, Un 3-0
Sides: 3-5; Favs 2-4 Dogs 1-1

Took two days off, cost myself a little $ as the Fades continued to pay off.

Here's what I have to work with going into this week, the methods I 'cap and chart:

WF Play #1: 6-17, Hm 2-9, Rd 4-8

WF Play #2: 3-2, Hm 3-2, Rd 0-0

Ov: 12-27

Un: 3-4

3W/3L: 5-10, Fav 4-8, D 1-2

Within those plays I have subsets I bet, such as the record for when both methods have the same WF in a game (0-1), etc.
So, a lot of good stuff to work with this week IF the pendulum doesn't start to swing back the other way.

Today . . .

Det -2 (Mem is in the 3-2 spot; has a winning record but since no other play is above .500 it's reasonable to expect this one to join them, yes?)

Chi-2 (Atl is 4-8 spot)

Chi Ov 221' (Un is 3-4)

NO -1' (Phx in 4-8 spot)

That's all for today, good luck with your play.

 

[indiana]

T. storm....BOL with all your action this week buddy....indy

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 0-4
Record: 6-13

If Friday's 6-3 was me on the road to recovery then last night's 0-4 was me falling off the wagon - hard.
I like a challenge and it looks like I'm going to have one in my battle vs the NBA.
How much do I dislike the sport? I watched women's college basketball last night rather than the NBA.
I've disliked it for years, and that's before it started taking my money this season. Now, I really hate it.

So, what to do now, what's the problem, what's the strategy moving forward?

The problem is when I don't make plays I'm leaving money on the table based on the records of the plays I chart.
But when I do play them, I get my ass kicked.

The strategy can be any of four:
1) Take a few days off.
2) Keep picking which days and which spots to play (which has clearly not worked.)
3) Play all the Fades and hope there is no regression towards the mean (which last night certainly points to.)
4) Play the spots (don't Fade them) and hope there is a regression toward the mean.

Got two today, and I'm sticking with the Fade, and, since it's not my sport, still using small $ units
(do NOT increase dollar amounts to chase lost money.)

NYK and Hou are in a 6-8 spot (same spot was 4-8 yesterday before Atl and Phx both won.)

Mia -3
Min -7

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-0-1
Record: 7-13

Got a W with the Heat, Pushed with Min.

The Hou/Min game was a little strange in the final minute, the Wolves screwed me and saved me.

Here's how they screwed me. I'm laying -7, they're up by 9, just 38 seconds left.
They're in-bounding. They'll get fouled. Even if they hit just one of two FT's it should ice the W for me.
But . . . McDaniels turns it over on the in-bound pass, VanVleet hits a 3 pt'er.
Still had a chance. Up by 8 pts, 19 seconds left, VanVleet misses a 3 pt'er. If I get the rebound it's game over. But . . . no rebound and Smith hits a 3.

But they also saved me, going 6-6 from the FT line in the final minute. One miss would have tagged me with a loss, but they saved me with a Push.

Usually, you're either cursing at or applauding a team at the end of the game, this one was a little of both.

Got two plays today.

My #'s say Orl is a WF (a 4-2 spot) and LAL/Wash stays Un (a 4-5 spot.)

Not much of an edge to it but I'm Fading the 4-5 play and taking the Ov.

For the Orl game, same strategy as I used on Monday: "(Mem is in the 3-2 spot; has a winning record but since no other play in my charts is above .500 it's reasonable to expect this one to join them, yes?)"
Mem won that game, but I'm sticking with my theory.

LAL/Wash Ov 233'
NO -4

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 8-14

Split last night, hit with LAL Over, missed with NO.

My theory that the only play I chart that has a winning record is bound to trend downward and also become a loser has not been going well.
After last night's NO loss I think I'm 0-3 using it now?
So - time to stop trying?
No!
Have it again tonight, the only game that qualifies for one of situational plays.
Updated/corrected record for this spot is 5-2; broken down into Hm/Rd it's Hm 3-2 Rd 2-0.
Tonight it has Houston. Which means . . .

GS -4

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 9-14

Got a unit back with GS last night.

From yesterday:
"My theory that "the only play I chart that has a winning record is bound to trend downward and also become a loser" has not been going well."
It worked last night. And I have it in action again tonight.

I'm tracking/charting/playing four basic plays, such as Wrong Favs, via two different methods.
Within those two ways to try and identify WF's there are subsets, such as when I break it down to Hm or Rd, or, when the # I have for the WF team is 5 or > the books # on the game.

In all I'm 'capping 16 different spots.
Of those 16, only one has a winning record (5-3 overall, 3-3 Hm, 2-0 Rd.) The rest are at .500 or worse.
So, it's reasonable to think that the lone play with a W record is going to find it's way to the L column also.
It worked last night Fading Houston as a WF, same play today says NY and Minn should be Favs (2-0 Rd.) Which means . . .

Chi -1
Phx -4

Also a few other Fades:

NO -11 (SA in a spot that's 8-18, 6-9 Rd)
Char +12 (Orl in a 5-111 post, 4-8 when it's a Fav)
NY also qualifies for this same play as Char, so two plays say Fade the Knicks tonight

Utah/LAC Ov 223 (same play that I used for LAL Ov on Wed; Un are 4-6)

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 4-1
Record: 13-15

A good night last night.

The theory that the lone situational spot I had with a winning record would soon go down came through with two more Fade wins and is now sitting at 5-5 (got one of them for tonight.)

Started the week seven games under .500, got it down to two games. I'll look to get those two back next week along with the juice I'm down, then hopefully move into the profit side of the game.

I have two games that qualify tonight but with a +5 gained for the week (I work in 7 day windows starting Monday ending Sunday) I'm going to take today and probably tomorrow off from the NBA and just watch some football instead. I'll post the two games in case anyone else is looking for angles and action.

First, here's what my main charts look like.

WF #1: 8-19, Hm 2-9, Rd 6-10

WF #2: 5-5, Hm 3-3, Rd 2-2

H/C: 16-34, Ov 12-27, Un 4-7

3W/3L: 5-12, Favs 4-9, Dogs 1-3

And there are subsets I track within them, too much to list here.
But, plenty of good Fade material in those records.

A record of 5-10 is just as useful as a record of 10-5!!!
Seems everyone's looking for a winning record to tail but it's much easier to find a losing record.

Tonight WF #2 says Memphis should be the Fav (3-3)
And 3W/3L says take the Lakers (4-9)

If I was playing I would Fade both of those spots, but like I said I'm going to work on football today, just posted them in case anyone's looking for angles.

Good luck with your play today.

 

[indiana]

T. storm......well done (Fri.) buddy....
BOL with today's action....indy

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 0-0
Record: 13-15

The decision to lay off yesterday was okay, the two games that qualified split so I saved a little juice.

I have eight games that qualify today. Not in the mood to go crazy and play them all but I'll list them here in case anyone's looking for angles on the games. Below, the teams my numbers say to Fade, not play On.
Records for the plays can be found in the post above.

WF #1: Hou, Clev, Miami, NO, SA.
WF #2: Wash, NO, Brook.
3W/3L: Sac

So, which ones to play?

I can eliminate Sac/Brook since WF2 says Fade Brooklyn and 3W/3L spot says to Fade Sacramento.

The ONLY play that does not have a losing record is WF#2 Rd games, at 2-2. So continuing with the strategy that sooner or later they'll all have a losing record I'm fading both (Wash, NO) of those plays today.
Bonus spot because both Wrong Fav spots say New Orleans is the wrong favorite and have only had one other game this year where this happened, record 0-1.

Tor -4
Phx -6

Good luck with your play today!