NBA 2008-09, Week 8 thread...

[brewers7]

Man, things are going so bad, that I didn't even start the Week 8 thread correctly, accidently put this in the Week 7 thread...

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
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Bets record:
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Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-1, -$530
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-28, -$133
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Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 177-176-6
#1 picks: 25-24

Totals: 182-168-9
#1 picks: 22-25-2
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Day 50:

As the busy season is upon me at my place of business, my time will be limited...Almost considered not posting any more this year after a frustrating week and bad day yesterday as my bets went 0-2 despite going 7-2 with my Sides and 5-3-1 with totals...I liked the card a lot yesterday, but decided to stay away from game bets one more day and paid for it...I was really psyched and looking forward to this NBA season after not posting last year and having a solid year with minimal effort...If things don't change in the next few weeks, then I may have to accept the fact that this may be my first losing season ever in the NBA and I have been capping it since 1982-83...Only 2 units down, but it feels like I am 200 units down, quite frankly...Never had a start quite like this one...

I may be forced to cut back some write-ups due to time constraints, but we'll see...

I just checked my database and am a bit surprised that there has never been a C6 vs. a NC6 since the 1991-92 season...Knicks/Lakers match-up tonight has that...Here are examples similar:

NC vs. C8 happened twice and the NC6 covered both times as DOGs that lost by small margins...

C6 vs. NC7 happened twice and the NC7 covered both times, once as a FAV of 6.5 winning by 15 and the other as a small DOG that lost but covered...

C6 vs. NC8, same thing, NC8 a small DOG that lost but covered...

C6 vs. NC9, NC9 covered, a 7.5 DOG that won outright...

6-0 ATS for the team that was on the NC streak...

Fairly rare to have a Cover team vs. a Not Cover team with decent streaks be such a huge DOG...Biggest DOG I could find was a C6 vs. a NC5 and the C6 covered as 10.5 DOGs...

Using NC6 vs. C5 and C6 vs. NC5 was about a coin-flip with about a 16-game sample...

I like the Lakers here, at first blush, but giving that many points, man, I dunno, we'll see...Be back with picks in a bit...

No BETS yet...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

 

[brewers7]

Sides:

#1 LAL -13.5
#2 Hou -3
#3 OKC +5
#4 Chi -2.5
#5 Memp +6.5
#6 Sac +12.5

Totals:

#1 Hou un 199
#2 Memp ov 193
#3 Chi un 188
#4 LAL ov 222.5
#5 OKC un 199
#6 Sac ov 199.5

 

[brewers7]

BET:

Level 1 -- Los Angeles Lakers -13.5, laying $252.50 to win $250 -- Would be a Level 2 play, but I hate laying these kinds of spreads...Talked about this already as teams currently on long cover streaks have a GREAT dal of problems covering teams currently on long Not-Cover streaks and we have a C6 vs. NC6 tonight with the Lakers being in the NC6 spot...Also, the Knicks are ending a 5-game road-trip and have covered the first 4 games...Coming into this season, since 1991-92, that has happened 25 times and the road team is 8-17 ATS in their final Road game of the trip...Now, ORL had this same exact spot last night and Covered, so what are the odds that thi spot can Cover on consecutive nights?...A spot so rare to begin with?...I guess we'll see after tonight...Lake-Show over-"due" to hammer the hell out of someone anyway and if the Knicks don't hit treys tonight, they will get blown out of Staples because I don't see them getting squat in the paint with the giants the Lakers have under the basket...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...
<!-- / message --><!-- / message -->

 

[spreadbeater]

Good luck Brew...I am on the Lakeshow 1H -7. Hope we both cash.

 

[brewers7]

Thanx SB, but Gasol mysteriously is OUT and this game has no shot as the Lakers look horrible defensively...Lakers are done here, no shot, will lose outright, GUARANTEED...

 

[spreadbeater]

Yep, a terrible call by me. It is amazing to me how bad the Lakers look. hno:

 

[yonko]

hey brew, would you play la second half if it fits your criteria?

 

[brewers7]

We didn't know Gasol would get strep throat, SB...

Different game if he played...

I am playing this 2H line...

 

[Vallon]

We didn't know Gasol would get strep throat, SB...

Different game if he played...

I am playing this 2H line...

lakers or knicks?

 

[brewers7]

BET:

Level 2 -- Los Angeles Lakers -11, 2H, laying $825 to win $750 -- Would be a Level 3 play, but because the Lakers are down 15 and the 2H lines takes this to a 4-point game loss for a cover instead of putting the "new" game line to a 1 or 2-point win for LAL, it is NOT as strong a play for me, but I just don't see the Lakers losing this game...51% shooting for NY and 36% for LAL meets the criteria (15% difference)...Had LAL been down 9, 10, 11 or 12 points, this would have been a Level 3 play...

 

[CAP-IT-OFF]

You mentioned that the Lakers will lose and you said you guaranteed it and now your backing the Lakers -11 at the half? Even though if they cover -11 then they can only lose by 4 for you to push. If your going to think the Lakers have a chance then the over is a better play.

BOL on your play though...

 

[brewers7]

You mentioned that the Lakers will lose and you said you guaranteed it and now your backing the Lakers -11 at the half? Even though if they cover -11 then they can only lose by 4 for you to push. If your going to think the Lakers have a chance then the over is a better play.

BOL on your play though...

I was "saying" it, hoping it wouldn't happen...

People who know me know I will try the "reverse-jinx" from time to time...It obviously will not work for the game line because LAL is down WAY, WAY too much...But the Knicks cannot shoot 50% plus from trey-land in the 2H, can they??...

 

[CAP-IT-OFF]

Lakers looking good in the second half making a big run. Once again good luck on the play...

 

[brewers7]

Lakers looking good in the second half making a big run. Once again good luck on the play...

It won't last...Knicks win outright...

But thanx anyway...

 

[yonko]

I hit second half as well........do you have winning % for the type of second half plays you have talked about over the years or is this a type of play you've just started. Thanks for all your help here.

 

[brewers7]

I hit second half as well........do you have winning % for the type of second half plays you have talked about over the years or is this a type of play you've just started. Thanks for all your help here.

I'd have to do a search in my database for exact numbers, but I have followed plays like this ever since online books put out 2H lines on the Internet in the mid to late 90s...

 

[yonko]

I didn't mean to make any extra work for you, just thought if you had a rough idea of how well they hit.

 

[brewers7]

I didn't mean to make any extra work for you, just thought if you had a rough idea of how well they hit.

I don't know off the the top of my head...



I just bet these, so am posting in case lines move...Picks and updated records later...

BET:

Level 1 -- Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5, laying $250 to win $265 -- Minny has lost 10 in a row and CLE just had an 11-game winning streak end last time out at ATL...CLE has won 19 of their last 20...These 2 injuries to "Z" and Gibson are going to catch up with them...Look-ahead game potentially as Denver is next up...You generally see the effort-level rise for most NBA teams the longer a losing streak goes...Minny got thrashed at SAC last time out and I look for them to give CLE some fight tonight as Kevin McHale is still looking for his first win...No reason why the back-door shouldn't be open late in this one...

Level 1 -- Atlanta Hawks Pick (+149 -- MatchBook), laying $168 to win $250 -- Boston has tied the best start in NBA history and have won 15 in a row...Is Pierce 100%?...Atlanta must have something to prove here and would love to make a statement that what happened at Home last April in the playoffs was no fluke...The Hawks only lost to the Celtics by 1 at BOS early in the season when they were in a bad spot, in the back-end of a back-to-back and BOS was rested...Boston cannot win every game the rest of the way, so this is as good a spot as any to see them lose, as the Hawks are 9-1 at Home...They have established a dominant home-court advantage starting with that playoff series last April...BIG game for the Hawks and I'll take the team that has the motivational edge every time...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

<!-- / message --><!-- / message --><!-- / message -->

 

[brewers7]

================================================== =====================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== =====================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== =====================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
================================================== =====================
Bets record:
================================================== =====================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 1-1, -$30
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 29-29, -$135.50
================================================== =====================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 178-181-6
#1 picks: 25-25

Totals: 184-172-9
#1 picks: 22-26-2
=====================================

Day 51:

Running late again and this may become a theme here...

Sides:

#1 Min +10
#2 Atl +4
#3 Phi -3.5
#4 GS +6.5
#5 Chi -3
#6 NO -2
#7 Utah -2.5
#8 Dal -2.5
#9 Was +9.5

Totals:

#1 GS ov 226.5
#2 NO un 185
#3 Dal un 198
#4 Atl un 187
#5 Chi un 195
#6 Was un 200
#7 Min un 187
#8 Utah un 199
#9 Phi un 193


BETS posted...

GL... <!-- / message -->

================================================== =====================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
================================================== =====================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
================================================== =====================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
================================================== =====================

<!-- / message -->

 

[MikRetSam]

im sure they are the sharp plays, but geez it tough to bet against the two best teams in the association........