Random thoughts after 5 weeks:
35 days down, 135 to go in the regular season...
Western Conference is the dominant conference????
The East is now 16 games over .500, which means they are 8 games better than the West so far this season...Been quite a while since this has happened after the recent domination by the Western Conference...
"Tired legs mean Unders"????
Ok, I have to clear something up that newbies or even folks who think they know something about NBA handicapping are saying on forums that I look at...I have no posters in mind, as many people blend together as I randomly read through threads one or two days a week at various forums, but I am tired of seeing this and I need to educate the masses here...
I keep reading about "tired legs" and the insinuation is, this will slow down the scoring, meaing the game will go Under...
Ok, how many of you actually play basketball?...
I have played basketball a lot and still play full-court games once a week on Sunday nights, and I can tell you, unequivocally, from experience, that, in the sport of basketball, when players have "tired legs", it is harder, MUCH harder to play defense than it is to play offense...
People who have played competitive basketball should back me up on this one...
It is much harder to guard good post-up players when you are tired, it is much harder to rebound and box-out players when you are tired...MUCH harder...
And I can also tell you, that, from experience, it doesn't effect your offense hardly at all, especially with fast-breaks -- lay-ups and dunks -- or spot-up shooting...Ok, I never could dunk a basketball, tennis ball, yes, but if I could dunk a basketball, being "tired" would not effect my ability to do so...Tired legs can have an effect on some jump-shooters late in games (outside of 15 to 18 feet) because they obviously use their legs to jump as they shoot at the apex of their jump, unlike spot-shooters (like Larry Bird, for example, who would get maybe 3 or 4 inches off the ground)...
I remember when we had daily microphone chats (in chat rooms) with many handicappers at an old forum called ThinkDog, and I pointed this out during a microphone chat, and the founder and owner of that forum told me years later that that is the one thing that he remembered the most out of the hundreds of daily chats we had...
Remember that folks..."Tired legs" effects the defense more than it effects the offense...
Are we clear?...
Now if we take this information into the handicapping world, does this mean that we take the Over every time some team has "tired legs" and we all become millionaires in a season or two?...
Of course not...
But, point of fact, in all NBA games this season where a team was playing their 4th game in 5 nights, those games are 11-3 to the Over...
GS at NY had a 263 last SAT at MSG with GS playing their 4th game in 5 nights...Did anybody watch that game?...Did you see the matador "defense" being played by "tired legs" GS in that one?...How many lay-ups and dunks did the Knicks have?...And Golden State's offense was NOT effected, even without Stephen Jackson, as they still scored 125 with "tired legs"...
Am I getting through to some people yet??...
So the general rule of thumb should be:
"tired legs" = Overs
Now this doesn't guarantee anything...You STILL have to look at the situational spots before making determinations on playing the "automatic" Over in this spot...But you should make the Over in the 4th game in 5 nights the "default" pick until you see evidence that points you to the Under before "officially" making your selection...Just remember that there are teams who will play Unders consistently in this spot...It's a matter of styles and opponents...
Personal notes
Despite a super-slow start for me this season (and I have had many seasons that started out just like this, just not since 2003-04 though), I am only less than 1 unit down...That's it...It feels like I am 10 units down, really...But despite a horrible bad beat last SAT (a 2-unit swing against me), I am less than 1 unit down on the season, with LOTS of time left...
Now with that said, I need to constructively criticize myself while patting myself on the back a little...I'll pat myself on the back for being conservative as I muddled through these first 5 weeks...But I also must criticize myself severely ALSO for being too conservative at times...I have had enough stone cold winners these first 5 weeks where the bet should have been raised to Level 2 or there were certain "no bets" made...
I was successful a few years back betting what I thought were stone Overs by betting them Over in the 1Q, 1H and for the game...Now I didn't do it at all last year as my time was severely limited, so maybe that made me a bit gun-shy this year, as I have not done it yet...Not even once...Almost did it with the GS/NY Over, but STILL chickened out and skipped the 1H Over...
GUTLESS...
I had that game circled 5 days in advance...No balls...
I have not lost a 1Q bet yet this season (all 1Q Overs)...Had I bet all of those games Over in the 1H and Game, also, and there were a couple of others where I bet only the Game and skipped the 1Q and 1H, I would be an additional 15-2 on the season...Like Monday night, I was ready to bet the game total Over, but saw it jump 3 points and just skipped it because I was p*ssed at losing some value...Well, like 3 points makes a difference in most GS totals...Again, STUPID...
Hopefully I will make better betting decisions in the weeks to come...
But I may start looking at 1Q and 1H bets a lot more in upcoming weeks...Just as many trends and patterns in those 2 categories as there are for the game lines...
Tuesday's action
Remember all those Unders the first week or so of the season?...Well, the Overs have arrived and Vegas totals are climbing higher and higher on a daily basis...
At first blush, one might think that this Lakers game will fly over any total with the way the Lakers have scored their last 4 games, going Over the total every time and by a good margin most of those games...But this game is at Indy and the Lake-show is 4-1 to the Under on the Road...212.5?...Eeech, that's a lot...
How good is Portland?...Took care of the Pistons with ease on Sunday, AT Detroit...Good enough to be Road chalk of 6.5 though?...Normally I'd say no way, but this is the Knicks, and anything is possible here, cripes, PORT could cover 11.5, I suppose...211.5 here...Only twice this season has PORT gone Over this number, at GS (217) and at SAC (213)...PORT 4 Unders and a Push their last 5...
Ok, the Nets have won 5 of 6 and 7 of 9 (and NOT against slouches) and are only 5.5 chalk at Home against the Wizards??...What?...Why?...Ok, WASH has covered 4 of the last 6 h2h, so maybe that explains it, but NJ has won 8 of the last 9 h2h here...NJ played the Lakers tough for the 1H, then lost, but then went to SAC-town the next night and won, then won at Utah (ok they're injury depleted and they caught the Jazz on a back-ender, but still) and then the next night, PHOE was rested and off an embarrassing loss and a "tired" NJ outscored the Suns 43-24 in the 4Q to win by 8...The Wizards stink...Winless on the Road and 2-4 ATS on the Road...Hmmmm, this makes no sense...Is Vegas giving us a free winner here?...Well, hot damn, I believe they are...Take the Wizards to the bank...Free winner, courtesy of Vegas...Thank you...
Clips/Dallas, no line...Both teams playing better after bad starts...Clips actually 4-2 ATS on the closing line after that 1-9 ATS start...
The Sixers have been disgraceful thus far...Disgraceful...High expectations as I saw one magazine rate them as the third or fourth best team in the East before the season started...Try 11th best right now at 7-10...Home and Home here and I generally like these revenge spots in some instances, and this is one instance where I like Philly to win outright...Will I bet them...Hmmmm, that's a tough one...Vegas has been on the button with Philly totals as there have been 3 pushes in the last 4 Philly games on the total...That may be unprecedented...CHI has been an Under team at Home and Philly hasn't gone Under their last 6 overall...
Det/SA almost an automatic play on the Under...Total has already dropped 3 points after it opened at 186...I am already p*ssed at myself for losing value...9 of the last 11 h2h in the regular season have gone Under...Largest Vegas total on the closing line for any of these games was 183.5...With the exception of a 211, the other 10 games out of those 11 ALL stayed under 180...
no line Tor/Den...Nuggets suddenly Over 5 in a row...Last 2 times these teams played h2h at DEN, they flew Over with a 242 & 226...I will investigate a possible 1Q Over play here once the line is out...
no line Utah/Sac...Revenge spot for SAC as Utah just killed them 4 days ago at Utah by 26...Last 6 h2h have all gone Over...
35 days down, 135 to go in the regular season...
Western Conference is the dominant conference????
The East is now 16 games over .500, which means they are 8 games better than the West so far this season...Been quite a while since this has happened after the recent domination by the Western Conference...
"Tired legs mean Unders"????
Ok, I have to clear something up that newbies or even folks who think they know something about NBA handicapping are saying on forums that I look at...I have no posters in mind, as many people blend together as I randomly read through threads one or two days a week at various forums, but I am tired of seeing this and I need to educate the masses here...
I keep reading about "tired legs" and the insinuation is, this will slow down the scoring, meaing the game will go Under...
Ok, how many of you actually play basketball?...
I have played basketball a lot and still play full-court games once a week on Sunday nights, and I can tell you, unequivocally, from experience, that, in the sport of basketball, when players have "tired legs", it is harder, MUCH harder to play defense than it is to play offense...
People who have played competitive basketball should back me up on this one...
It is much harder to guard good post-up players when you are tired, it is much harder to rebound and box-out players when you are tired...MUCH harder...
And I can also tell you, that, from experience, it doesn't effect your offense hardly at all, especially with fast-breaks -- lay-ups and dunks -- or spot-up shooting...Ok, I never could dunk a basketball, tennis ball, yes, but if I could dunk a basketball, being "tired" would not effect my ability to do so...Tired legs can have an effect on some jump-shooters late in games (outside of 15 to 18 feet) because they obviously use their legs to jump as they shoot at the apex of their jump, unlike spot-shooters (like Larry Bird, for example, who would get maybe 3 or 4 inches off the ground)...
I remember when we had daily microphone chats (in chat rooms) with many handicappers at an old forum called ThinkDog, and I pointed this out during a microphone chat, and the founder and owner of that forum told me years later that that is the one thing that he remembered the most out of the hundreds of daily chats we had...
Remember that folks..."Tired legs" effects the defense more than it effects the offense...
Are we clear?...
Now if we take this information into the handicapping world, does this mean that we take the Over every time some team has "tired legs" and we all become millionaires in a season or two?...
Of course not...
But, point of fact, in all NBA games this season where a team was playing their 4th game in 5 nights, those games are 11-3 to the Over...
GS at NY had a 263 last SAT at MSG with GS playing their 4th game in 5 nights...Did anybody watch that game?...Did you see the matador "defense" being played by "tired legs" GS in that one?...How many lay-ups and dunks did the Knicks have?...And Golden State's offense was NOT effected, even without Stephen Jackson, as they still scored 125 with "tired legs"...
Am I getting through to some people yet??...
So the general rule of thumb should be:
"tired legs" = Overs
Now this doesn't guarantee anything...You STILL have to look at the situational spots before making determinations on playing the "automatic" Over in this spot...But you should make the Over in the 4th game in 5 nights the "default" pick until you see evidence that points you to the Under before "officially" making your selection...Just remember that there are teams who will play Unders consistently in this spot...It's a matter of styles and opponents...
Personal notes
Despite a super-slow start for me this season (and I have had many seasons that started out just like this, just not since 2003-04 though), I am only less than 1 unit down...That's it...It feels like I am 10 units down, really...But despite a horrible bad beat last SAT (a 2-unit swing against me), I am less than 1 unit down on the season, with LOTS of time left...
Now with that said, I need to constructively criticize myself while patting myself on the back a little...I'll pat myself on the back for being conservative as I muddled through these first 5 weeks...But I also must criticize myself severely ALSO for being too conservative at times...I have had enough stone cold winners these first 5 weeks where the bet should have been raised to Level 2 or there were certain "no bets" made...
I was successful a few years back betting what I thought were stone Overs by betting them Over in the 1Q, 1H and for the game...Now I didn't do it at all last year as my time was severely limited, so maybe that made me a bit gun-shy this year, as I have not done it yet...Not even once...Almost did it with the GS/NY Over, but STILL chickened out and skipped the 1H Over...
GUTLESS...
I had that game circled 5 days in advance...No balls...
I have not lost a 1Q bet yet this season (all 1Q Overs)...Had I bet all of those games Over in the 1H and Game, also, and there were a couple of others where I bet only the Game and skipped the 1Q and 1H, I would be an additional 15-2 on the season...Like Monday night, I was ready to bet the game total Over, but saw it jump 3 points and just skipped it because I was p*ssed at losing some value...Well, like 3 points makes a difference in most GS totals...Again, STUPID...
Hopefully I will make better betting decisions in the weeks to come...
But I may start looking at 1Q and 1H bets a lot more in upcoming weeks...Just as many trends and patterns in those 2 categories as there are for the game lines...
Tuesday's action
Remember all those Unders the first week or so of the season?...Well, the Overs have arrived and Vegas totals are climbing higher and higher on a daily basis...
At first blush, one might think that this Lakers game will fly over any total with the way the Lakers have scored their last 4 games, going Over the total every time and by a good margin most of those games...But this game is at Indy and the Lake-show is 4-1 to the Under on the Road...212.5?...Eeech, that's a lot...
How good is Portland?...Took care of the Pistons with ease on Sunday, AT Detroit...Good enough to be Road chalk of 6.5 though?...Normally I'd say no way, but this is the Knicks, and anything is possible here, cripes, PORT could cover 11.5, I suppose...211.5 here...Only twice this season has PORT gone Over this number, at GS (217) and at SAC (213)...PORT 4 Unders and a Push their last 5...
Ok, the Nets have won 5 of 6 and 7 of 9 (and NOT against slouches) and are only 5.5 chalk at Home against the Wizards??...What?...Why?...Ok, WASH has covered 4 of the last 6 h2h, so maybe that explains it, but NJ has won 8 of the last 9 h2h here...NJ played the Lakers tough for the 1H, then lost, but then went to SAC-town the next night and won, then won at Utah (ok they're injury depleted and they caught the Jazz on a back-ender, but still) and then the next night, PHOE was rested and off an embarrassing loss and a "tired" NJ outscored the Suns 43-24 in the 4Q to win by 8...The Wizards stink...Winless on the Road and 2-4 ATS on the Road...Hmmmm, this makes no sense...Is Vegas giving us a free winner here?...Well, hot damn, I believe they are...Take the Wizards to the bank...Free winner, courtesy of Vegas...Thank you...
Clips/Dallas, no line...Both teams playing better after bad starts...Clips actually 4-2 ATS on the closing line after that 1-9 ATS start...
The Sixers have been disgraceful thus far...Disgraceful...High expectations as I saw one magazine rate them as the third or fourth best team in the East before the season started...Try 11th best right now at 7-10...Home and Home here and I generally like these revenge spots in some instances, and this is one instance where I like Philly to win outright...Will I bet them...Hmmmm, that's a tough one...Vegas has been on the button with Philly totals as there have been 3 pushes in the last 4 Philly games on the total...That may be unprecedented...CHI has been an Under team at Home and Philly hasn't gone Under their last 6 overall...
Det/SA almost an automatic play on the Under...Total has already dropped 3 points after it opened at 186...I am already p*ssed at myself for losing value...9 of the last 11 h2h in the regular season have gone Under...Largest Vegas total on the closing line for any of these games was 183.5...With the exception of a 211, the other 10 games out of those 11 ALL stayed under 180...
no line Tor/Den...Nuggets suddenly Over 5 in a row...Last 2 times these teams played h2h at DEN, they flew Over with a 242 & 226...I will investigate a possible 1Q Over play here once the line is out...
no line Utah/Sac...Revenge spot for SAC as Utah just killed them 4 days ago at Utah by 26...Last 6 h2h have all gone Over...
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