NBA 2008-09, Week 3 thread...

[brewers7]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 6-6, -$150
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 51-44-2
#1 picks: 9-5

Totals: 47-50
#1 picks: 2-12
=====================================

Day 15:

Top 5 Sides went 4-1 for the first time, so I feel like I may be getting close to coming out of this early slump (heck, not like 6-6 is a total disaster)...Also ending that #1 totals losing streak will hopefully propel me into some further winners there...We'll see...Wish I would have bet my top 2 sides last night, though, as they were easy winners...Still 4 games with no lines...Once they come out, if I like a total, I will bet it tonight after snapping that streak last night...

I have to jump on a game now though...Not sure where the line will move...It may go down to 4, but I personally think it'll hit 5, maybe go off at 5.5...

BET:

Level 1 -- Philadelphia 76ers -4.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- Philly has been a totally different team at Home than on the Road thus far, but the situational spot here is in the Sixers' favor...They have the motivational edge...They just got thumped last THUR on TNT in Orlando after they were thrashed even worse the day before in Miami...They have 4 days to stew over that 2-day debacle...Philly came into this season with a lot of hype thanks to the signing of Elton Brand and they are clearly not living up to expectations...Philly may not be as good as some of the hype they received in the Preseason, but they certainly cannot be as bad as their 2-4 start...Often, it is faulty NBA handicapping logic to say that "The Knicks just beat Utah by 8 on Sunday, so how won't Philly beat them by at least that much since Philly is the better team (despite the records) as Philly destroyed NY by 29 points earlier in the season?"...The fact of the matter is, and it is important to remember this, that NBA teams are never as good or as bad as their last game played...

Another factor that cannot be ignored is Utah playing without Deron Williams...They have risen up without him, starting the season 5-0 (before losing to the Knicks on Sunday), and this is common in the NBA to see a team rise up for a spell to counteract the loss of a star player...But you can only rise up so long before the loss takes effect...Also keep in mind that Utah beat Denver at Home (without Melo playing for the Nuggets), they beat the 1-6 Clippers in a home-and-home, and then they beat Portland and Oklahoma City at Home...A lot of factors working against Utah, while Philly has 4 days rest and have got to be steaming after 2 bad losses...Motivational edge to Philly...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

=======================================================================
Please note: [COLOR=#ff000]Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...[/COLOR]
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

<!-- / message --><!-- / message -->

 

[barman]

I'm also looking hard at this game, though I may elect to use the ml with a ml dog in a 2teamer.

UTAH is 6-11 in past 17 playing Away After Away, though they were 10-7 when graded at +4.5

That latter note added, we agree that lack of Williams further moves this one towards Philly, who is 7-1 in their past eight Home games played with 2+ days rest and in six of those they easily handled -4.5

Final note - Elton Brand, though he sat out last season, played five times vs Utah in preceding two seasons and averaged 27 pts and 12 rbs - suggesting a solid head to head matchup vs Boozer.

Best to us all for a profitable week ahead

 

[gabbana]

i like philly but im afraid not to be a public bet..

 

[barman]

I'm giving a strong look at HalfUnit size 2TeamParlay of PHI ml and CHAR ml for what should pay right about normal 2Teamer rates of 2.5x1

But will wait until this evening in hopes that one or both move slightly in my favor.

Again..bol to us all.....Off to lawn/garden work and will see youse boys this evening.

 

[HighFlyinKilla]

i like philly but im afraid not to be a public bet..

Do you think that maybe its mostly sharps hitting it this early? The public tends to move lines closer to gametime. I dont think placing bets is the first thing the casual betters do in the morning. If anything the line is sreaming for Utah action they're 5-1 and Phil is 2-4 yet Utah is getting 4.5 to 5.

 

[miamiboy86]

i think that the play is either Phili or nothing, so good luck with your pick tonight

 

[miamiboy86]

=======================================================================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... =======================================================================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
=======================================================================
Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395 (flat-bet for $100) | All picks: 62-41-2 | #1 picks: 12-7
=======================================================================
Bets record:
=======================================================================
Level 3 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 bets (starting BR = 10K) -- Record: 6-6, -$150
=======================================================================
Strict Betting Rules are posted here: Link
==============================
Sides: 51-44-2
#1 picks: 9-5

Totals: 47-50
#1 picks: 2-12
=====================================

Day 15:

Top 5 Sides went 4-1 for the first time, so I feel like I may be getting close to coming out of this early slump (heck, not like 6-6 is a total disaster)...Also ending that #1 totals losing streak will hopefully propel me into some further winners there...We'll see...Wish I would have bet my top 2 sides last night, though, as they were easy winners...Still 4 games with no lines...Once they come out, if I like a total, I will bet it tonight after snapping that streak last night...

I have to jump on a game now though...Not sure where the line will move...It may go down to 4, but I personally think it'll hit 5, maybe go off at 5.5...

BET:

Level 1 -- Philadelphia 76ers -4.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- Philly has been a totally different team at Home than on the Road thus far, but the situational spot here is in the Sixers' favor...They have the motivational edge...They just got thumped last THUR on TNT in Orlando after they were thrashed even worse the day before in Miami...They have 4 days to stew over that 2-day debacle...Philly came into this season with a lot of hype thanks to the signing of Elton Brand and they are clearly not living up to expectations...Philly may not be as good as some of the hype they received in the Preseason, but they certainly cannot be as bad as their 2-4 start...Often, it is faulty NBA handicapping logic to say that "The Knicks just beat Utah by 8 on Sunday, so how won't Philly beat them by at least that much since Philly is the better team (despite the records) as Philly destroyed NY by 29 points earlier in the season?"...The fact of the matter is, and it is important to remember this, that NBA teams are never as good or as bad as their last game played...

Another factor that cannot be ignored is Utah playing without Deron Williams...They have risen up without him, starting the season 5-0 (before losing to the Knicks on Sunday), and this is common in the NBA to see a team rise up for a spell to counteract the loss of a star player...But you can only rise up so long before the loss takes effect...Also keep in mind that Utah beat Denver at Home (without Melo playing for the Nuggets), they beat the 1-6 Clippers in a home-and-home, and then they beat Portland and Oklahoma City at Home...A lot of factors working against Utah, while Philly has 4 days rest and have got to be steaming after 2 bad losses...Motivational edge to Philly...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that starting bankroll...If the bankroll changes a bit as the season progresses, then the betting amount will change...

GL...

=======================================================================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
=======================================================================
Database sample links: TeamSample, SeasonSample
=======================================================================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...
Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...
Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...
Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Use Money Management…Stay humble…
Bet with your head, not over it...Act professional…
=======================================================================

<!-- / message --><!-- / message -->

LOVE your entire body of writing here, could not be over-stated enough....hope you get your season turned around in the right direction sir, BOL with your future plays

:money8:

 

[SaltyVeteran]

Good Luck Brewers

 

[BetHalfLines]

I'm sure you've seen this already, but Deron Williams is scheduled to play tonight. How much...well that remains to be seen. Good Luck.

 

[brewers7]

Thanx guys...

With 22 weeks to go in the regular season, I hope to be on the right track sooner rather than later...Tonight will be another gauge, much like last night was where Toronto and Memphis jumped out at me...If Philly covers, then I feel like I am close...

i like philly but im afraid not to be a public bet..

Public is on Utah...

I am surprised by this line-move downward to 3.5 as I could have -4 at +104 or -4.5 at +110 at Matchbook right now...Giving up an extra point and that much juice p*sses me off, but I don't see how Philly doesn't win by at least 7 or 8...

Didn't know he was supposed to play as the injury reports still aren't accurate apparently in the NBA (supposed to be out another 2 weeks), but Okur is still out I believe and Williams coming back also plays into another NBA "theme" over the years where you fade the team whose star player returns from injury for his first game back...

 

[gabbana]

there is a word that deron might play..thats why the line is dropping brew.

 

[Doug]

Brew: I know you are new to Matchbook, but you should consider making offers, instead of just accepting them.

 

[brewers7]

Brew: I know you are new to Matchbook, but you should consider making offers, instead of just accepting them.

You cannot make your own lines there, though...I didn't know that...

I emailed Support and they said you cannot do that...

But I should've waited until they came out with more lines as only the 4.5 was available last night...Today, more lines are available...

Live and learn...Wanted to beat a line-move upwards, and now Williams is back so the line will only move downwards from here on out...

Still like Philly -4.5, but I just don't like giving 4.5 when I could have had 4 at plus-juice or even 3.5 at "normal" juice...

 

[Doug]

You cannot make your own lines there, though...I didn't know that...

I emailed Support and they said you cannot do that...

But I should've waited until they came out with more lines as only the 4.5 was available last night...Today, more lines are available...

Live and learn...Wanted to beat a line-move upwards, and now Williams is back so the line will only move downwards from here on out...

Still like Philly -4.5, but I just don't like giving 4.5 when I could have had 4 at plus-juice or even 3.5 at "normal" juice...

Correct, you can't make a new pointspread, they don't always have multiple lines, seems to happen only when there is line movement.

You couldn't have known Williams would play, pure guesswork, but you'll usually get a tighter spread on gameday, so early bets at MB often are a waste of time.

 

[Grog]

I see Deron Williams is Doubtful. Are we sure he is out tonight?

 

[brewers7]

Correct, you can't make a new pointspread, they don't always have multiple lines, seems to happen only when there is line movement.

You couldn't have known Williams would play, pure guesswork, but you'll usually get a tighter spread on gameday, so early bets at MB often are a waste of time.

I still like Philly strictly with the situational spot...Without Williams and Okur, Philly wins by DDs...Now I may have to sweat a little more with Williams playing, but Philly jumped off the page at me last night...And I am hoping my "jump off the page" meter is working again, because Toronto & Memphis jumped off the page last night to me...

 

[brewers7]

I see Deron Williams is Doubtful. Are we sure he is out tonight?

If he doesn't play, the line will jump...

I like Philly to cover whether he plays or not...

 

[maniilaq]

I look for your picks everyday ! Thanks for your write ups.
Good Luck tonight on Philly.

 

[SportsFan818]

Im 1-0 following your picks with Cleveland on opening night. I have -3.5 and I really dont know much about the nba, should i buy this down to -3 or just play it at 3.5? i dont want to wait for 3 because if he doesnt play then the line will go up. thank you brewers

 

[Doug]

I took -4 +112

seemed like the best number/vig.