NBA 2008-09, Week 1 thread...

[brewers7]

Ok, Final tallies from the Preseason:

Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395
All picks: 62-41-2
#1 picks: 12-7

Bets: 83.3%
#1's: 63.2%
ALL: 60.2%

Do NOT hold me to these percentages as the Preseason is a small sample compared to the regular season...
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My time is severely limited compared to past seasons, but I plan to post every day, unless I get my ass handed to me, at which time I'll stop posting, because posting non-stop losers does nobody any good...But I will attempt to go wire-to-wire, through the inevitable cold streaks...

And since that is the plan, well, it should be a LEARNING experience for people who are new to betting...And by new, I mean anyone betting for less than 5 years...

So I want to cover all the bases in terms of guiding folks through the best way to bet games through an ENTIRE season and hopefully people can learn some tips about not only how to cap the NBA (the best sport to handicap, IMO), but also how to protect your bankroll...

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Ok, this is how things will work for 2008-09...

3 different starting bankrolls, 10K in each one…

Level 1 bankroll: 10K
Level 2 bankroll: 10K
Level 3 bankroll: 10K

Level 3 bets: Are my strongest bets..."Best-of-the-Best" bets that pop up during the season...I have no idea how many there will be this season...Maybe 8, maybe 15...I dunno...Maybe less...I have always laughed at touts and their "ability" to know that there is a Play of the Week every week and a Play of the Month every month, and a Play of the Year every year...How do they know this??...How do they know that these plays will exist??...I don't...When I see them, I'll bet them, but I have no idea how many "top" plays there will be before the season starts...Which is why I have:

Level 2 bets: Basically these are my #1 sides and #1 totals and maybe a #2 or a #3 sprinkled in from time to time...There won't be bets every day in this category...Generally 1 to 3 plays a day, with 1 bet a day probably being the average, unless, I decide to be very selective this year, and then there will be less...

Level 1 bets: These will be all picks that I like daily…Could be 1 or 2 a day, could be 9 or 10 a day…Or anywhere in between...

These levels will be bet like this:

Level 1 plays: 2.5% of bankroll per play
Level 2 plays: 5% of bankroll per play
Level 3 plays: 10% of bankroll per play

Also, All Level 2 plays are also bet for 2.5% at the Level 1 Bankroll...
And, all Level 3 plays are also bet at Level 1 for 2.5% of that bankroll and at Level 2 for 5% of that Bankroll…

In other words:

All Level 1 plays are only bet using the Level 1 bankroll at 2.5% per bet…
All Level 2 plays are bet at 2.5% of the Level 1 BR and 5% of the Level 2 BR per bet…
All Level 3 plays are bet at all 3 Levels, 2.5% at Level 1, 5% at Level 2 and 10% at Level 3 per bet…

And remember, each Level has a starting bankroll of 10K for a 30K total…

“But wait”, people will say, “how can you bet 17.5% on 1 play”? That is insane!”…

No…

If you can get -105 juice, then you are actually betting 6.125% of your overall Bankroll on all Level 3 plays…Not bad, really, for “Best-of-the-Best” plays, which to this point, with a very small sample over the last 5 years since I have come up with these, have hit a high percentage for me…

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Ok, so now that the "rules" are in place, I'll go over some brief facts...

My personal bankrolls for these 3 levels are not 10K, they are less, but I will track all of my bets based on three 10K bankrolls because for simplicity sake, using powers of 10 are easier to track, and followers who wish to tag along can adjust their bankrolls easier based off a power-of-10 bankroll for tracking purposes...

All games listed as bets by me will in fact be bet by me in "real life" at the level indicated...

I won't have bets every day...

I will list my "picks" every day...For people who do not know me, I handicap and then pick every NBA side and every NBA total every day and I rank every pick from 1 to whatever…In other words, if there are 10 NBA games on the board, I pick all 10 sides, rank them from 1 to 10 with 1 being the "strongest" daily play and 10 being the 'weakest" daily play…Been doing this for 17 years...

So I will list every pick with rankings daily...Please don't confuse these with actual bets...The bets will be clearly listed and in Bold...

Since I am U.S. citizen, I don't hve access to Pinnacle or the Exchanges, so this really sucks and I will demonstrate why it sucks every day...Juice hurts the bankroll...But since I am a U.S. citizen and I have my money in A-rated SportsBooks that aren't reduced juice, I am stuck with -110 juice, so I will be doing it the hard way this year...But I am up for the challenge...Every bet will have -110 juice...

However, if I had access to the exchanges or Pinnacle, it would be a completely different story...I would bet positive juice or juice at -105 or lower at Pinny (at worst)...

So to illustrate the difference juice makes over the course of the entire season, every bet I make will be with -110 juice (doing it the hard way), but I will track Pinnacle reduced lines separately...

If I had access to the Exchanges, I would have positive or zero juice for EVERY bet...For example, if the Knicks were +10 -107, I would take them at +9 and, what would that be, maybe +104...And if I had Boston -12, I would take Boston -13 to bet it at positive juice...

With my limited time this season, I won't have time to look through the exchanges...

So If there are volunteers during the course of the year who would check out the exchanges after I post a bet at -110, please feel free to post what the positive juice listed is for that game and list the line for that juice...And I can track those, too...

I would like this to be a learning experience for everyone (who cares to learn) by reading this thread as the year goes on...

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My goals are to:

1) Show the importance of getting reduced juice, no juice or positive juice for all your bets over the course of a season...

2) Show how to protect your bankroll and not expose it to very high risk during the season...

3) Show different things to look for when handicapping the NBA on a daily basis, i.e. pointing out all of the important situational and motivational spots that pop up during the course of the season...

4) Provide analysis with every bet to show that I am not throwing darts...

5) Post the entire season (unless I am getting killed)...

6) Post some winners...

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Hopefully everyone will have a profitable 2008-09 NBA season...

GL...

 

[yanni_gogolak]

thanks brewers7. i still fall under that 5 yr mark so i will be following closely. i have only recently (last 6 months) come to understand the importance of mm, especially when it starts coming in on the good side. yesterday i could have lost a good portion of my sat. winnings if not for good mm. thanks again and good luck this season!

 

[indiana]

Brewers..........

I tailed you last year, and was very impressed with your professionalism and process..
thank you for explaining the way you do your bets and bankroll..

looking forward to a very profitable year... thank you and g/l this year

indy

 

[Uno]

one of the best of all time. always worth the read Brew, thanks and good luck this year.

 

[eoghater]

if you do encounter tough times, which I hope doesn't happen, don't leave. The NBA is the most brutal sport to cap because of its daily grind and late-game antics, so we'll all run into funks as the season progresses. It's how you bounce back from them that makes you +/-50%.

 

[brewers7]

Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395
All picks: 62-41-2
#1 picks: 12-7
===============================
Now on to the Regular Season...
===============================
Level 3 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
===============================

Opening Night:

Ok, the DOGs covered all 5 games the last 2 seasons on Opening night, but in all reality, that has nothing to do with tonight's games...And the FAVs did quite well the 4 seasons before that, going 10-3...I am basically a DOG player in the NBA and will always err on the side of the DOG, and of course, immediately, I like all 3 DOGs tonight at first blush...

Cleveland at Boston -- LeBron says he has the most talent around him since his ballyhooed entrance into the NBA directly from high school...He was actually quoted as saying there is no excuse not to win a championship this year...There are some pieces here, for sure, but after reading up on them online, I will agree that they are no longer going to be as tough or as tenacious on defense this season and that Charles Barkley is probably spot-on when he says that this Cleveland team will have much more success running up and down the floor this season, playing to LeBron's strengths...And with the campaign for "LeBron for MVP" already under way in Cleveland, what better way to jack up LeBron's already amazing numbers some more by playing more of a transition game?...And LeBron's numbers have been utterly amazing playing for a team that has slowed the pace for the most part in recent years, playing a half-court set...

So now that they have a few horses who can run, you may see them run more this year and Coach Mike Brown has hinted that this may be the way to go after seeing LeBron fit in with style with fluidity in the Olympics...You may ask, "How the hell is this team going to play a transition game and quicken the pace and run more with guys like Zydrunas Ilgauskas & Ben Wallace out on the floor?...Well, the Lakers had Showtime with Jabbar and Rambis out on the floor...I believe it'll be the second unit for the Cavs that will speed up the pace and Lebron will be out on the floor with that unit...

But I have seen this before...One coach talking about speeding up the pace perhaps during the preseason and another talking about focusing on defense more...Until I see a few games, I won't know for sure what they are doing, but I do like this Over...

There aren't as many Unders head-to-head here as one might believe in recent history...Both regualr season games went Under in BOS, but both at CLE went Over...In the playoffs, which normally would be a feast on the Unders you would think between 2 teams like this last year, there were 3 Overs in that 7-game series and 2 of those were at BOS, including Game 7, which is always almost an automatic play on the Under for teams like Detroit, San Antonio, and you would think, a Boston/Cleveland match-up, but they posted a 189 at the Garden in Game 7 and a 185 in Game 5, so the last 2 games at BOS have gone Over between these 2 in critical games where you would think an Under would be the play in a pivotable Game 5 (series tied at 2-2) and Game 7...

I think this game gets into the 90s, and with Cleveland covering 9 of the 11 games vs. Boston last year, I also think it will come down to the wire and the Cavs get the cover...Boston is a bit of a public team now and as defending champs, will be overvalued at the outset and I do think losing Posey may have an effect this season...BOS was 56-25-1 ATS last year in the regular season and what that means for this season will be LACK OF VALUE...

Other games:

No strong opinions at all with MILW at CHI...The Bulls have covered 7 of the last 8 games h-2-h vs. the Bucks (6-1 ATS) and 6 of those 7 wins were Overs...This game just has "PASS" written all over it...I'll watch and wait to see how these teams look after a few games...The Bulls are supposed to be a lot more focused on defense coming into this season, but we'll see...

Portland looks to be strong coming into the season, but can this young team develop into a cohesive unit right out of the gate?...Doesn't matter too much to me because the Lakers are certainly a public team now, too, and were 47-35 ATS last year in the regular season...PORT has covered 21 of the 26 meetings vs. LAL, including 9 straight...I watched both games last year at Staples, and PORT stayed right with them until the final 2 or 3 minutes, and late runs in both games gave the Lakers a pair of 13-point wins, but neither were enough to cover a generous spread...The Lakers had some issues with PORT's length and athletic ability...Oden may get into foul trouble quickly here if Phil is smart enough to go at the Rook, so that is just another x-factor to consider...I like the Blazers though...No opinion on the total...

All Picks:

Sides:

#1 Cle +6.5
#2 Port +7.5
#3 Milw +6

Totals:

#1 Cle ov 179.5
#2 Port un 196
#3 Milw un 194

Bet:

Level 1 -- Cleveland Cavaliers +6.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- I feel the motivational edge goes to the Cavaliers here, especially with LeBron James as he comes into this season with the goal of a championship...He can carry this team on his shoulders at times, but shouldn't have to as much this season as he has some help, and the pieces he has are on board from the get-go this season (remember the hold-outs last year at the start of the season)...This is a revenge spot which I like to play now and then where a team that got eliminated from the playoffs the previous season (Cavs) are playing the team that eliminated them (Celtics) for the first time the following season...And again, the defending champs are generally overvalued the following season in the early going...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that bankroll...I do realize that with most flat-betting strategies (the 2% of BR method) that most people have the bet amount at 2%, not the amount to win, but I don't like those crazy numbers and will do it this way, and at 2.5%...

This juice is currently -103 at Pinnacle (and being from the USA, I cannot bet there), and you would be laying $259 if you are lucky enough to have an account there...I did sign up with MatchBook today and am currently funding that account over the next few days so I can hopefully get some better juice for the remainder of the season...

GL...

 

[gabbana]

what can i say brew...great writeup and i wish you a great season.
i like two dogs today but i hope line will go up +0.5 so i can take them.

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

thanks brewers...appreciate the thoughts and good info bro...best of luck 2nite

 

[cdsmoney]

Preseason bets: 5-1, +$395
All picks: 62-41-2
#1 picks: 12-7
===============================
Now on to the Regular Season...
===============================
Level 3 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 2 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
Level 1 starting BR = 10K -- Record: 0-0
===============================

Opening Night:

Ok, the DOGs covered all 5 games the last 2 seasons on Opening night, but in all reality, that has nothing to do with tonight's games...And the FAVs did quite well the 4 seasons before that, going 10-3...I am basically a DOG player in the NBA and will always err on the side of the DOG, and of course, immediately, I like all 3 DOGs tonight at first blush...

Cleveland at Boston -- LeBron says he has the most talent around him since his ballyhooed entrance into the NBA directly from high school...He was actually quoted as saying there is no excuse not to win a championship this year...There are some pieces here, for sure, but after reading up on them online, I will agree that they are no longer going to be as tough or as tenacious on defense this season and that Charles Barkley is probably spot-on when he says that this Cleveland team will have much more success running up and down the floor this season, playing to LeBron's strengths...And with the campaign for "LeBron for MVP" already under way in Cleveland, what better way to jack up LeBron's already amazing numbers some more by playing more of a transition game?...And LeBron's numbers have been utterly amazing playing for a team that has slowed the pace for the most part in recent years, playing a half-court set...

So now that they have a few horses who can run, you may see them run more this year and Coach Mike Brown has hinted that this may be the way to go after seeing LeBron fit in with style with fluidity in the Olympics...You may ask, "How the hell is this team going to play a transition game and quicken the pace and run more with guys like Zydrunas Ilgauskas & Ben Wallace out on the floor?...Well, the Lakers had Showtime with Jabbar and Rambis out on the floor...I believe it'll be the second unit for the Cavs that will speed up the pace and Lebron will be out on the floor with that unit...

But I have seen this before...One coach talking about speeding up the pace perhaps during the preseason and another talking about focusing on defense more...Until I see a few games, I won't know for sure what they are doing, but I do like this Over...

There aren't as many Unders head-to-head here as one might believe in recent history...Both regualr season games went Under in BOS, but both at CLE went Over...In the playoffs, which normally would be a feast on the Unders you would think between 2 teams like this last year, there were 3 Overs in that 7-game series and 2 of those were at BOS, including Game 7, which is always almost an automatic play on the Under for teams like Detroit, San Antonio, and you would think, a Boston/Cleveland match-up, but they posted a 189 at the Garden in Game 7 and a 185 in Game 5, so the last 2 games at BOS have gone Over between these 2 in critical games where you would think an Under would be the play in a pivotable Game 5 (series tied at 2-2) and Game 7...

I think this game gets into the 90s, and with Cleveland covering 9 of the 11 games vs. Boston last year, I also think it will come down to the wire and the Cavs get the cover...Boston is a bit of a public team now and as defending champs, will be overvalued at the outset and I do think losing Posey may have an effect this season...BOS was 56-25-1 ATS last year in the regular season and what that means for this season will be LACK OF VALUE...

Other games:

No strong opinions at all with MILW at CHI...The Bulls have covered 7 of the last 8 games h-2-h vs. the Bucks (6-1 ATS) and 6 of those 7 wins were Overs...This game just has "PASS" written all over it...I'll watch and wait to see how these teams look after a few games...The Bulls are supposed to be a lot more focused on defense coming into this season, but we'll see...

Portland looks to be strong coming into the season, but can this young team develop into a cohesive unit right out of the gate?...Doesn't matter too much to me because the Lakers are certainly a public team now, too, and were 47-35 ATS last year in the regular season...PORT has covered 21 of the 26 meetings vs. LAL, including 9 straight...I watched both games last year at Staples, and PORT stayed right with them until the final 2 or 3 minutes, and late runs in both games gave the Lakers a pair of 13-point wins, but neither were enough to cover a generous spread...The Lakers had some issues with PORT's length and athletic ability...Oden may get into foul trouble quickly here if Phil is smart enough to go at the Rook, so that is just another x-factor to consider...I like the Blazers though...No opinion on the total...

All Picks:

Sides:

#1 Cle +6.5
#2 Port +7.5
#3 Milw +6

Totals:

#1 Cle ov 179.5
#2 Port un 196
#3 Milw un 194

Bet:

Level 1 -- Cleveland Cavaliers +6.5, laying $275 to win $250 -- I feel the motivational edge goes to the Cavaliers here, especially with LeBron James as he comes into this season with the goal of a championship...He can carry this team on his shoulders at times, but shouldn't have to as much this season as he has some help, and the pieces he has are on board from the get-go this season (remember the hold-outs last year at the start of the season)...This is a revenge spot which I like to play now and then where a team that got eliminated from the playoffs the previous season (Cavs) are playing the team that eliminated them (Celtics) for the first time the following season...And again, the defending champs are generally overvalued the following season in the early going...

Again, at Level 1, I am betting to win 2.5% of that bankroll...I do realize that with most flat-betting strategies (the 2% of BR method) that most people have the bet amount at 2%, not the amount to win, but I don't like those crazy numbers and will do it this way, and at 2.5%...

This juice is currently -103 at Pinnacle (and being from the USA, I cannot bet there), and you would be laying $259 if you are lucky enough to have an account there...I did sign up with MatchBook today and am currently funding that account over the next few days so I can hopefully get some better juice for the remainder of the season...

GL...

Brewers,

Looking forward to another great season from you(even though there will be highs and lows - that's gambling. Missed your threads last year. Thanks for this opening night play.

Just curious who you are using for your books. You can certainly get in with 5 dimes, as an American citizen. And, while the currently +6.5 -105 isn't as good as pinny it's close (and some would say worth the price of the terrible customer service).

Good luck tonight.

 

[TescoVee]

GL this season Brewers. good to see you got some money into matchbook. Should be interesting to see how the no juice method pays off.

 

[brewers7]

Brewers,

Looking forward to another great season from you(even though there will be highs and lows - that's gambling. Missed your threads last year. Thanks for this opening night play.

Just curious who you are using for your books. You can certainly get in with 5 dimes, as an American citizen. And, while the currently +6.5 -105 isn't as good as pinny it's close (and some would say worth the price of the terrible customer service).

Good luck tonight.

Olympic and MatchBook right now and in fact I will have more dough at 5dimes within 48 hours...That'll do for now...

 

[Costanza]

Thanks for the profitable pre-season & best of luck during the entire regular Season B7 !

 

[BigCat]

Thanks B7 BOL this season

 

[NorthernStar]

Brewers7:

It looks like you are playing a Kelly Criterion for your money management running 3 bankrolls. I like it and have advocated that type of thing in the past.

Here is another alternative you should consider when having multiple plays going at the same time.

Reduce your plays to .66% of what you would have wagered. Then place a .33% wager on a two team parlay. When you go 0-2 or 2-0 your bankroll will more closely mimic if you had played a game and either won or loss and then made a second play based on the new bankroll.

If you have 3 going go to .6 for a straight play, and 3x2 parlays at .2

Good Luck this year

Northern Star

 

[cisco]

Have a great season!

I use Pinnacle.
Cle +6 +100
ov 180 +100

 

[Daheavy1]

Thanks Brew...long time no see.

 

[liftnbet]

good luck to you my friend.. looking great

 

[Feri]

BOL for the season Brewers! :toast:

 

[TheTribe]

nice call on the cavs

 

[cjv_11]

thanks brewers!! keep em coming