Navy Over???? Explain to me why

[LexingtonBrass]

I have looked at the Navy vs L Tech game nine ways to the middle and I can't seem to understand how the Over is a good play? Navy is without their 2nd string QB Worth again and starting running back. As predicted, QB Zach Abey and the rest of the team struggled to find points against Army just a few weeks ago.

Lousiana Tech comes into this game ranked #31 in the country allowing only 134 rushing yards per game. Navy once again is going to be forced to throw the ball and I am having a hard time trusting Abey to get that job done and score enough points to get us through the Over of 68.

If you are still considering the Over here, you may as well take L Tech - 7 and their high powered offense and hope they hang a huge number on Navy!

Am I missing something here?

Let's here your thoughts and plays for this game.

 

[Ajay2009]

That rank #31 in rush D a little bit inflated most of the teams they played they always go up early forcing the teams to run less.

 

[LexingtonBrass]

That rank #31 in rush D a little bit inflated most of the teams they played they always go up early forcing the teams to run less.

Thanks for this! So first half L Tech sounds nice! Hope they jump out to a big lead.

 

[indiana]

L/Brass...........good luck with your plays today...........you and your family have a great Holiday.........indy

 

[LexingtonBrass]

L/Brass...........good luck with your plays today...........you and your family have a great Holiday.........indy

Thanks Indy! Same to you and your family! Enjoy!

 

[TimmyRules]

Almost two weeks of practice may help Abey also...

 

[ca$hmoney]

Both defenses are garbage. Latech will throw all over navy and navy will pound latech into submission. Latech rush def I only looks good bc their pass def is weak

 

[RedElephants]

2 Senior linebackers, one is the leading tackler on the team for La Tech are academically ineligible. 3rd leading tackler, a Safety is likely a no go go. LA Tech DC has never faced a triple option team. Linebackers and safeties are critical against triple option. 2 are guaranteed not to play. If all 3 are out they've got issues on Defense.

 

[LexingtonBrass]

Thanks for the insight gentlemen! Still not entirely convinced it gets to 68.

Liking the 1H -4 LT play more and more now, but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

 

[yeagerbomb1]

Red, your one of the Best I've seen on here thru the years, Are you gonna post all your bowl games? Thanks

 

[wizardofodd]

2 Senior linebackers, one is the leading tackler on the team for La Tech are academically ineligible. 3rd leading tackler, a Safety is likely a no go go. LA Tech DC has never faced a triple option team. Linebackers and safeties are critical against triple option. 2 are guaranteed not to play. If all 3 are out they've got issues on Defense.

Thanks for the info!

 

[RedElephants]

Red, your one of the Best I've seen on here thru the years, Are you gonna post all your bowl games? Thanks

Laying in the brush this year. Merry Christmas to your family!

 

[Walkingdude]

Missing your insight Red, always watch for your posts.

Merry Christmas to you and yours Red.

 

[sdf]

Navy faced a terrific Temple defense and ended up without their starting QB. Their offense was stagnant.
Then they faced a mediocre Army defense, but a defense very familiar with Navy and (obviously) very familiar in stopping the triple option

Navy's defense is not that good and LT should have no problem moving the ball and scoring points.
It's hard to know what Navy can do but LT wont be able to stop the normal Navy offense with Worth. You'd think the 3rd string QB
by now is more prepared to handle the offense.

68 is a bunch. It really is going to depend on Navy's 3rd string QB.....which makes it such a huge question mark on the total...

 

[LexingtonBrass]

Navy faced a terrific Temple defense and ended up without their starting QB. Their offense was stagnant.
Then they faced a mediocre Army defense, but a defense very familiar with Navy and (obviously) very familiar in stopping the triple option

Navy's defense is not that good and LT should have no problem moving the ball and scoring points.
It's hard to know what Navy can do but LT wont be able to stop the normal Navy offense with Worth. You'd think the 3rd string QB
by now is more prepared to handle the offense.

68 is a bunch. It really is going to depend on Navy's 3rd string QB.....which makes it such a huge question mark on the total...

Agreed. Navy hasn't given me a reason why their offense is going to come out and score the type of points needed to hit this over. I guess I am just shocked to see so many over backers in this game.

 

[TenPin832]

What's the weather forecast?

 

[AlistairCookie]

It's not completely accurate to say that Navy was forced to throw the ball against Army. Ivin Jasper takes what the defense gives him and he thought he could exploit Army's defense who was committed to taking away the Navy run. Even if you do reject that premise, it's not prudent, either, to cap a Navy game based on their performance against Army. It is without question that Navy has been the vastly superior team for the last 15 years, yet that game is often very close. Army could've won any of the previous five meetings.

That said, had Will Worth been at QB the game would have turned out differently and how Zach Abey performs is the key to this game. Navy has lost three games this year, and all three teams were committed to running the football something which La Tech will not be.

Abey's first game with significant reps was coming in cold to the conference championship game, and his first start was in the Army-Navy game. Not a year's worth of experience, but talk about trial by fire. While Navy is missing two very important pieces, this offense is the sum of its parts and has shown to be that over the last several years.

You certainly mentioned it in your opening post, but many people forget that Wil Worth was the projected back-up for this season and led Navy to a historic win vs. Houston, and wins vs. Tulsa and Notre Dame (a school like Notre Dame should never lose to Navy). Navy's offense is a system that is not based on one single player's success, though of course in this offense the QB is the most important piece. Abey missed a couple of important reads that absolutely could've changed the course of that game and you know he knows that.

This year's crop of seniors kind of lived in the shadow of Keenen Reynolds and co.'s class and would love nothing more than be the first Navy team to win 4 bowl games in a row. As another poster said, the Navy defense is crap so this most definitely figures to be a shootout IF Zach Abey has learned from those first two games.

 

[tulah]

2 Senior linebackers, one is the leading tackler on the team for La Tech are academically ineligible. 3rd leading tackler, a Safety is likely a no go go. LA Tech DC has never faced a triple option team. Linebackers and safeties are critical against triple option. 2 are guaranteed not to play. If all 3 are out they've got issues on Defense.

Great stuff brother. :toast:

 

[bones1980]

Tech will score 50 need 20 from navy

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Armed Forces Bowl Tout Tally

LA Tech vs. Navy


Over - 12

Under - 1