Navy +5 (@Vandy)... Yes, Navy.

[BigTwelveFan]

I was rolling through the numbers and found a little ole' game way down at the bottom that jumped out at me a little bit....

Navy +5 (@ Vandy)...It's certainly not a marquee match-up but the Mids have been playing well lately on both sides of the ball. Vandy is always the whipping post of their conference, but usually bring a well coached D into the game. I will have to do a little closer read on this one, but I did like what I was seeing as of today.


Plenty of other good looking games as well,
Nebraska -7, C'mon Kansas ran ALL OVER MU
Ok St. +3, KSU might be mentally done!

good luck.

BTF.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

I've been doing some studying of teams that have a high yards per run average and Navy intrigued me. Navy averages 5.3 yards per rush and Vandy gives up 3.8 yards per rush and Vandy is favored.

Some other teams that came up in this study are-

South Carolina 4.5 ypr v. Kentucky - gives up 4.1 ypr (SC favored by 7.5)

Kansas 4.9 ypr v. Colorado - gives up 4.1 ypr (Col. favored by 6.5)

Texas, Michigan and Air Force also fit into this study.

Like you, I have to do some more research on these games. I'll post some more later.

Thanks for starting this thread.

 

[SharksIV]

navy upset airforce last week. that is a huge emotional win for them. there has to be a letdown. watch out for vandy in this spot

 

[BigTwelveFan]

Sharks,
Not sure how accurate that statement reall is. In this day and age ANY win at Navy and Army are huge wins, because lately, neither of them has won anything!
I agree it was a big win, but the thing that is interesting is the Navy ability to control the ball and run vs. the Vandy inability to stop the run or win a game. Emotion is important, but how about Navy being up for the game becuase they are having a "good" season, and Vandy mailing this one in becuase the "suck" again.

Anything is possible I guess.

Big Game, glad to see that others are thinking the same way. Kansas has run very well this year! That could be a strong play.

BTF

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Sharks, you make a good point. That's one thing I always look out for. That and a big game the following week.

One of the reasons I have been tracking yards per rush is because it is a good way for a team to get momentum. If a team such as Navy is coming off a big win, they can retain that momentum by gaining first downs through their running game against a team that doesn't defend well.

Also, a team that runs well that is a big underdog against a weak run-defending team can use a lot of the clock. That prevents the big favorite from running up too much of a score. See the write-ups on Boise St./Tulsa game.

 

[SharksIV]

there are just so many factors to look at. with college kids i try to focus on where there heads will be. granted navy being a service academy will be more disciplined than other college teams. however i think they are realistic about their seasonal goals based on the fact that they don't necessarily have access to as many athletes as other schools. i believe navy defines their success by winning that cup they get in the two game series with army and airforce. now they are one game away from that cup and they should be able to take army pretty easily again this year. it would not surprise me if they mail this week in despite what the stats say. vandy should be up for this game. they are home and don't have many potential wins on their schedule. i had navy against rutgers the week before airforce. huge mistake on my part. can't let it happen again.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

I'm just not impressed with Vandy this year after looking into more about them. They gain an average of 374 yards per game but they also give up 351. Navy gains 417 yards per game but they only give up 333 yards per game.

Vandy is largely a passing team. Navy has been allowing 164 passing yards per game so I'm thinking they can probably handle the Vandy passing game. I'm not sure Vandy can handle the Navy running game.

 

[mws]

I like all 3 of your games, but I'm concerned about the OL injuries for Neb. FWIW, Navy has beaten AFA 2 times in the last 10 years, and they did fine the next week each time (one cover & one 31-3 win in a non-lined game vs. Colgate).

 

[BigTwelveFan]

Fellas, good looking stuff.

I am not as high on Nebraska as I once was. I have felt all along that this team is so one dimensional that it is going to get burned. Mizzou offense can get creative depending on the QB play. I know they can't stop the run, but this has been a good match-up the last couple of years.

Still liking Navy, and Ok State.
Looking at some additional games.

BTF.

 

[WinOne]

Couple things to look at in the Navy/Vandy game (FWIW) is the opponents. Vandy has played (Ol Miss, Tn Chatt, Aub, TCU, GTech, Miss St) while Navy has played ( VA Military, TCU, EMich, Rutg, AFA). Navy/TCU was in driving rain and without starting QB for TCU as he injured his knee. Vanyd has been competitive versus better opponents and I believe (I am looking for stat) that they have been pretty good as home fav. Navy has been shaky at best on the road despite sparkling TO Margin (+1.0 to -1.0).
It is a bad sandwich spot for Vandy as they are off MSU and have UGa on deck.
Lots to consider before pulling the trigger.

GL,

WinOne!!

 

[BigTwelveFan]

WinOne, that is a valid point on the competition. My interest in the game is entirely based on the Navy ability to run the ball, and the Vandy inability to stop the run. Navy is built around the run, and will do nothing but run the ball.

Vandy is very shakey at best vs. the run. In the spot ya gotta at least like the one sided advantage to the Fly Boys!

It's an interesting game, I think, but I'm sticking with Navy as they will control the clock/game and wear down the Vandy d line. The vandy offense isn't great, so I will hope Navy can simply keep it close.

G/L to ya.

BTF.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

I like 'em too BTF. I'm going with Navy +5.

 

[sphincter]

i live near baltimore,not far from annapolis and navy is not only talking commander-in- chief trophy,but a bowl game as well.....if they win here,looking at the rest of there schedule,they may very well accomplish that goal......

i don`t think a let down is possible for a team that`s been down like navy has......they should be sky high here....

2 old southern conference coaches renew their rivalry....bobby johnson and paul johnson...

btw....vandy is 1-9 ats in homecoming games,2-7-1 ats vs non-conference and 1-7 ats as a home fave since "98"....

the vandy passing game could be a very difficult nut for navy to crack,though....

g.l.....

 

[BigTwelveFan]

Gonna be a battle! You can't question the heart of the mids! They won't let up against the Commodores!

I agree, how can Navy let down when they have waited so many years to win. EVERY game is huge to them. They control their own destiny w/ the comm. in chief trophy.

I like the odds even more now!

BTF.

 

[friday]

navy +4 - best value play on the board

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Final score: Navy 37, Vandy 27. Smoke 'em if ya got 'em.

 

[BigTwelveFan]

Good Thread, Good Game, Good points on both sides, and a Good Win!

Another great single game thread. Should start avoiding posting multiple play threads, I think it's bad luck.

Not a bad day overall.

BTF.

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

Couldn't write a better commercial for the site. Intelligent point of view on both sides and the man who started it all bringing in his pick. Props to all.

 

[VOLTITAN]

Sorry I am so late responding to this thread BigTwelveFan but you were right on the money. I grew up in Nashville and Vandy has a horrible history of losing football and Navy getting points was just unbelievable!!! The wrong freakin team was favored!!! How often does Vegas make this mistake. It was awesome!!! It was one of those moments where you just felt like you were going to get free money$$$. Nice call...

can't believe more people didn't see this!