*****Natural's 2008-09 Bowl Thread*****

[thenatural74]

BCS Games

Jan. 8 BCS Title Miami FOX 8 p.m. No. 1 Oklahoma vs. No. 2 Florida

Jan. 5 Fiesta Glendale, Ariz. FOX 8 p.m. Texas vs. Ohio State

Jan. 2 Sugar New Orleans FOX 8 p.m. Alabama vs. Utah

Jan. 1 Rose Pasadena, Calif. ABC 5 p.m. Southern California vs. Penn State

Jan. 1 Orange Miami FOX 8:30 p.m. Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati



Non-BCS Games

Jan. 6 GMAC Mobile, Ala. ESPN 8 p.m. Ball State vs. Tulsa

Jan. 3 International Toronto ESPN2 Noon Connecticut vs. Buffalo

Jan. 2 Liberty Memphis ESPN 5 p.m. East Carolina vs. Kentucky

Jan. 2 Cotton Dallas FOX 2 p.m. Texas Tech vs. Mississippi

Jan. 1 Gator Jacksonville CBS 1 p.m. Clemson vs. Nebraska

Jan. 1 Capital One Orlando ABC 1 p.m. Michigan State vs. Georgia

Jan. 1 Outback Tampa, Fla. ESPN 11 a.m. Iowa vs. South Carolina

Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A Atlanta ESPN 7:30 p.m. LSU vs. Georgia Tech

Dec. 31 Insight Glendale, Ariz. NFL Net. 5:30 p.m. Kansas vs. Minnesota

Dec. 31 Music City Nashville ESPN 3:30 p.m. Vanderbilt vs. Boston College

Dec. 31 Sun El Paso, Tex. CBS 2 p.m. Oregon State vs. Pittsburgh

Dec. 31 Armed Forces Fort Worth, Tex. ESPN 12:30 p.m. Air Force vs. Houston

Dec. 30 Holiday San Diego ESPN 8 p.m. Oklahoma State vs. Oregon

Dec. 30 Texas Houston NFL Net. 8 p.m. Rice vs. Western Michigan

Dec. 30 Humanitarian Boise, Idaho ESPN2 4:30 p.m. Nevada vs. Maryland

Dec. 29 Alamo San Antonio ESPN 8 p.m. Northwestern vs. Missouri

Dec. 29 Papajohns.com Birmingham, Ala. ESPN 3 p.m. Rutgers vs. North Carolina State

Dec. 28 Independence Shreveport, La. ESPN 8 p.m. Louisiana Tech vs. Northern Illinois

Dec. 27 Emerald San Francisco ESPN 8 p.m. Miami (Fla.) vs. California

Dec. 27 Champs Sports Orlando ESPN 4:30 p.m. Florida State vs. Wisconsin

Dec. 27 Meineke Car Care Charlotte ESPN 1 p.m. North Carolina vs. West Virginia

Dec. 26 Motor City Detroit ESPN 7:30 p.m. Central Michigan vs. Florida Atlantic

Dec. 24 Hawaii Honolulu ESPN 8 p.m. Hawaii vs. Notre Dame

Dec. 23 Poinsettia San Diego ESPN 8 p.m. Texas Christian vs. Boise State

Dec. 21 New Orleans New Orleans ESPN 8 p.m. Troy vs. Southern Miss

Dec. 20 EagleBank Washington D.C. ESPN 11 a.m. Navy vs. Wake Forest

Dec. 20 Las Vegas Las Vegas, Nev. ESPN 8 p.m. BYU vs. Arizona

Dec. 20 St. Petersburg St. Petersburg, Fla. ESPN2 4:30 p.m. South Florida vs. Memphis

Dec. 20 New Mexico Albuquerque, N.M. ESPN 2:30 p.m. Colorado State vs. Fresno State

 

[thenatural74]

*****Throwing out a few early stats on a game or two favoring the Over in their matchups mainly just for reading material. Write-ups to follow in the coming days on all the games I like.*****

Saturday, 12/27/2008 (221) MIAMI vs. (222) CALIFORNIA

Favoring: Over on the total.

Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CALIFORNIA) - game between two teams with 5 or less offensive starters returning
(28-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (93.3%, +25.8 units)
Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (MIAMI) - game between two teams with 5 or less offensive starters returning
(28-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (93.3%, +25.8 units)
Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (CALIFORNIA) - with 4 or fewer offensive starters returning
(26-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (92.9%, +23.8 units)
Over is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 road games.
Over is 5-0 in Golden Bears last 5 Bowl games.
Over is 5-0 in Golden Bears last 5 bowl games.
Over is 4-0 in Golden Bears last 4 bowl games as a favorite.
Over is 9-1 in Golden Bears last 10 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 5-1 in Golden Bears last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Over is 5-1 in Golden Bears last 6 games on field turf.
Over is 8-2 in Golden Bears last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 8-2-1 in Golden Bears last 11 non-conference games.
Over is 12-3 in Golden Bears last 15 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Golden Bears last 5 games as a favorite.

 

[thenatural74]

*****Throwing out a few early stats on a game or two favoring the Over in their matchups mainly just for reading material. Write-ups to follow in the coming days on all the games I like.*****

Monday, 12/29/2008 (227) NORTHWESTERN vs. (228) MISSOURI

Favoring: Over on the total.

Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (MISSOURI) - in minor bowl games (played in December), with a winning record on the season playing another winning team
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units)
Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (MISSOURI) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in minor bowl games (played in December)
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units)
Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (NORTHWESTERN) - in minor bowl games (played in December), with a winning record on the season playing another winning team
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units)
Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (NORTHWESTERN) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in minor bowl games (played in December)
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units)
Over is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Over is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
Over is 8-2 in Tigers last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 vs. Big Ten.

 

[thenatural74]

*****Throwing out a few early stats on a game or two favoring the Over in their matchups mainly just for reading material. Write-ups to follow in the coming days on all the games I like.*****

Tuesday, 12/30/2008 (231) W MICHIGAN vs. (232) RICE

Favoring: Over on the total.

Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (RICE) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) after 7+ games, in non-conference games
(26-0 over the last 10 seasons.) (100.%, +26 units)
Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (W MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) after 7+ games, in non-conference games
(26-0 over the last 10 seasons.) (100.%, +26 units)
Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (RICE) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents), in non-conference games
(26-2 over the last 10 seasons.) (92.9%, +23.8 units)
Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (W MICHIGAN) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents), in non-conference games
(26-2 over the last 10 seasons.) (92.9%, +23.8 units)
Over is 9-1 in Broncos last 10 games as an underdog.
Over is 9-1 in Broncos last 10 non-conference games.
Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-0 in Owls last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Over is 22-1 in Owls last 23 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 9-1 in Owls last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Owls last 6 games on grass.
Over is 42-9 in Owls last 51 games overall.
Over is 13-3 in Owls last 16 games as a favorite.

 

[thenatural74]

*****Throwing out a few early stats on a game or two favoring the Over in their matchups mainly just for reading material. Write-ups to follow in the coming days on all the games I like.*****

Wednesday, 12/31/2008 (235) AIR FORCE vs. (236) HOUSTON

Favoring: Over on the total.

Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (AIR FORCE) - in minor bowl games (played in December), with a winning record on the season playing another winning team
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units)
Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (AIR FORCE) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in minor bowl games (played in December)
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units)
Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (HOUSTON) - in minor bowl games (played in December), with a winning record on the season playing another winning team
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 units)
Play Over - Neutral field teams where the total is between 63.5 and 70 (HOUSTON) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in minor bowl games (played in December)
(30-4 since 1992.) (88.2%, +25.6 unit
Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-1 in Falcons last 7 games in December.
Over is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games as a road underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 non-conference games.
Over is 5-0 in Cougars last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 games in December.

 

[thenatural74]

Top 10 Good Bowl Teams

* NAVY is 4-5 SU & 7-2 ATS in bowl games over the L30 years.
* BOSTON COLLEGE has won 8 straight bowl games SU, going 6-2 ATS.
* LSU & PENN ST are both on strong runs of 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in bowl games.
* OLE MISS is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in its L7 bowl games.
* TCU is riding a five game ATS winning streak in bowl games (4-1 SU).
* UTAH boasts a 7-bowl game winning streak, going 5-2 ATS in that span.
* USC is 5-0 SU & ATS in L5 bowl games vs. Big Ten, winning by 18 PPG.
* MIAMI is 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in its L10 bowl games, but 0-2 ATS L2 chances.
* GEORGIA is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in its L8 non-BCS bowl games.
* OKLAHOMA ST is 12-6 in bowl games, at 67%, the best winning % in the Big 12.
Top 10 Poor Bowl Teams
* COLORADO ST is 0-3 SU & ATS in L3 bowl games, losing by 16.3 PPG.
* ALABAMA & CINCINNATI are just 2-5 ATS each in their L7 bowl games.
* CLEMSON is on a 4-8 SU & 3-8-1 ATS slide in bowl games.
* HOUSTON hasn’t won a bowl game since ‘80, going 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS.
* NEVADA is on a 1-4 ATS slide in bowl games.
* NOTRE DAME has lost nine straight bowl games SU, and is 1-9 ATS in L10.
* OKLAHOMA is 1-4 SU & ATS in its L5 bowl games, 0-4 in BCS-bowl games.
* W VIRGINIA is 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in its L6 bowl games vs. ACC teams.
* FRESNO ST is 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in its L3 bowl games vs. non-BCS leagues.
* In its L6 bowl games vs. BCS-conference teams, MICHIGAN ST is 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS.





Top 10 Favorite Bowl Trends

* Favorites are 6-1 ATS in FLORIDA’s L7 bowl games not vs. the Big Ten.
* The favorite has won all four prior lined MEMPHIS bowl games, both SU & ATS.
* OREGON ST boasts a 4-game SU bowl game winning streak, all as favorite.
* NEVADA & TEXAS TECH are both 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS in their L3 bowl games as favorites.
* CLEMSON is 1-6 ATS in its L7 as a bowl game favorite.
* Favorites hold edge in COLORADO ST bowl games, 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS in L9.
* The favorite is 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in N CAROLINA’s L7 bowl games.
* Favorites hold the edge in NEBRASKA bowl games, 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in L14.
* ARIZONA is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in L3 bowl games as favorite.
* The favorite is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in HOUSTON’s prior 9 bowl games.
Top 10 Underdog Bowl Team Trends
* OREGON & UTAH are each 5-1 ATS in their L6 as bowl game underdogs.
* Underdogs are on a run of 9-3 ATS in L12 TEXAS bowl games.
* Underdogs have gone 6-2 ATS in the L8 bowl games of both GEORGIA TECH & W VIRGINIA.
* Underdogs dominate the bowl games of Big Ten teams MINNESOTA, OHIO ST, & WISCONSIN, each 7-2 ATS in L9.
* The underdog is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in ARIZONA’s L5 bowl games.
* The underdog has dominated E CAROLINA & VIRGINIA TECH bowl games, 5-1 SU & ATS in L6.
* The underdog is on amazing run of 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in FRESNO ST bowl games.
* Underdogs have dominated OREGON, IOWA, & OKLAHOMA bowl games, 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in L9 for each.
* Underdogs boast a 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS record in L10 TEXAS TECH bowl games.
* The underdog is 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in OLE MISS’s L5 bowl games.

 

[thenatural74]

Top 10 "Over" Bowl Team Trends

* CALIFORNIA & GEORGIA TECH have each gone OVER the total in six straight bowl games.
* The L3 MEMPHIS bowl games have gone OVER the total, averaging 75.7 PPG.
* On totals, the OVER is on a 7-1-1 run in FLORIDA bowl games.
* OVER’s have been the result on total in L4 NAVY bowl games.
* The OVER is 6-2 in NC STATE’s L7 totaled bowl games.
* All three of RUTGERS’ recent bowl games went OVER the total.
* The L4 USC bowl games have gone OVER the total, averaging 67.3 PPG.
* The OVER is 7-2 in the L9 totaled TEXAS bowl games.
* In bowl games with totals less than 50, VIRGINIA TECH is 7-2 OVER.
* Eight of the L9 W VIRGINIA bowl games have gone OVER the total.



Top 10 "Under" Bowl Team Trends

* ARIZONA, MARYLAND, & WAKE FOREST have each gone UNDER the total in 4 straight bowl games.
* KENTUCKY has gone UNDER the total in four of its L5 bowl games.
* Seven of the L8 PENN ST bowl games have gone UNDER the total.
* UNDER the total is 8-2 in the L10 BYU bowl games.
* The UNDER is on a 5-1 run in CINCINNATI bowl game totals.
* The UNDER has been the winning total in 10 of L12 CLEMSON bowl games.
* Four of L5 NEBRASKA bowl games have gone UNDER the total.
* The UNDER the total is 7-2-1 in UTAH’s L10 bowl games.
* The L2 PITTSBURGH bowl games have gone UNDER the total by 20.0 PPG.
* UNDER has been the winning total in four of L5 SOUTHERN MISS bowl games.

 

[thenatural74]

Top 10 Miscellaneous Bowl Team Trends

* ALABAMA’s L6 bowl games have been decided by 6 pts or less.
* None of MISSOURI’s L9 bowl games have had a line of greater than 4-1/2 points.
* Seven of the L9 WISCONSIN bowl games have been decided by one possession.
* The L4 MINNESOTA bowl games have been decided by four points or less.
* CINCINNATI & MEMPHIS have never played a BCSconference team in a bowl game.
* VANDERBILT is playing in its first postseason game since ‘82, having not won since ‘55.
* NOTRE DAME hasn’t played a non-BCS league bowl foe since prior to ‘93.
* Four of L6 OREGON bowl games have been decided by 21 points or more.
* OHIO ST is 3-0 SU & ATS in Fiesta Bowl since ‘03, while TEXAS TECH is 0-3 ATS in its L3 January bowl games..
* W MICHIGAN is the only team in ‘08 with bowl experience to have never won.




Top 10 Scoring Bowl Team Trends

* MARYLAND has allowed just 38 points in its L4 bowl games.
* MICHIGAN ST has allowed 34.9 PPG in its L7 bowl games.
* MISSOURI has scored exactly 38 points in each of its L3 bowl games.
* HOUSTON’s defense has allowed 37.4 PPG in its L8 bowl games, AIR FORCE’s has allowed 36.2 PPG in its L6.
* C MICHIGAN has allowed at least 48 points in three of four bowl games.
* CALIFORNIA scored at least 31 points in L8 bowl games, averaging 39.6 PPG.
* HAWAII has yielded at least 24 points in L5 bowl games, averaging 37.8 PPG.
* OKLAHOMA defense has been torched for 41.8 PPG in L4 BCS bowl games.
* The NOTRE DAME offense has averaged just 17.7 PPG in L9 bowl games, RICE is even worse at 9.3 PPG in L4.
* PENN ST has allowed just 14.5 PPG in its L12 bowl games, and WAKE FOREST has yielded just 13.5 PPG in its L4.

 

[thenatural74]

Top 10 Hot Bowl Team Trends

* RICE, ALABAMA, UTAH & CALIFORNIA each covered the spread in five of their L6 games.
* PITTSBURGH & HAWAII each netted six ATS wins in their final eight graded pointspreads.
* OREGON ST & GEORGIA TECH each come into their bowl games on 8-2 ATS runs.
* SOUTHERN MISS (4 games) & OLE MISS (5 games) each finished the season on ATS winning streaks.
* BUFFALO finished ’08 on a 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS run, including four outright wins as an underdog.
* NC STATE won its L7 games against the spread and finished the season 9-1 ATS, but PapaJohns.com Bowl opponent RUTGERS is just as hot, 7-1 ATS in L8.
* BOISE ST ripped through the last 10 opponents on its schedule, going 7-1-2 ATS.
* TCU, Boise State’s opponent in the Poinsettia Bowl, was also good against the number in ’08, 8-3 ATS.
* OKLAHOMA scored 62.3 PPG during a remarkable 6-game SU & ATS winning streak to end the season.
* After losing in September to Ole Miss, FLORIDA torched nine straight opponents for 49.4 PPG, going 8-0 ATS.




Top 10 Cold Team Trends

* MIAMI & OKLAHOMA ST each go into their bowl games on three game ATS losing streaks.
* GEORGIA produced just a 1-6-1 ATS record in its L8 games of the regular season.
* The following teams were all just 1-4 ATS down the stretch: NOTRE DAME, MARYLAND, N ILLINOIS, TULSA.
* MINNESOTA lost its last four games outright and was 1-3 ATS down the stretch.
* VANDERBILT faded towards the end of the ’08 regular season, 1-4 SU & ATS in L5.
* FRESNO ST was horrible against the betting number all year long, going 2-10 ATS.
* LSU lost its L6 games ATS and was 1-8 ATS in its L9.
* BYU sputtered to a 1-7 finish against the pointspread.
* After starting the season 3-0 ATS, CINCINNATI finished on a 3-6 ATS slide.
* MISSOURI finished a once promising season on a 2-6 ATS skid.

 

[thenatural74]

Atlantic Coast Conference

The Atlantic Coast Conference will have a record 10 teams playing in the postseason with five teams in the favorite slot. Two others, Maryland and North Carolina are in pick em’ spreads, and the three remaining teams are underdogs. League champion Virginia Tech plays in the highlight game vs. Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl. Be sure to note the trends below regarding the ACC’s success or lack thereof when favored or getting points. According to past records versus other conferences, North Carolina, Miami, NC State, and Virginia Tech would be "play on" teams while Boston College and Georgia Tech would be in fade spots.
- Underdogs have been the flavor of choice in ACC bowl games recently, going just 10-15 SU but 18-7 ATS (72%) in the L25 games. Over the L2 seasons, that dog record is 12-4 ATS (75%).
- ACC teams have made for lousy bowl game favorites, going just 6-7 SU & 3-10 ATS (23%) as chalk since 12/29/05.
- Against non-BCS conferences, the ACC has stumbled to a 5-4 SU & 3-5-1 ATS (38%) record since ‘98, all as favorites. Versus other BCS conferences, the ACC has been overwhelmed to the tune of a 2-8 SU & 3-6-1 ATS (33%) record in its L10.
- The ACC has enjoyed bowl game success vs. the Big East (9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS) and the Pac 10 (5-1 SU & ATS). However, against the SEC, the ACC has been awful, 4-16 SU & 5-13-2 ATS (28%).




Big East Conference

Six of the eight Big East teams received bowl bids, with just Louisville and Syracuse failing to join the party. Four of the bowl participants from this league are favored. West Virginia is in a pick em’ pointspread. Pittsburgh is the only underdog. One of the games has a double-digit line, making South Florida a "play against" team according to the trend below. Unfortunately, this conference has no matchups against other leagues in which it has enjoyed past success, namely the Big 12 & SEC.
- Including a 2-3 ATS record last year, the Big East is 13-17 ATS (43%) since ’02. However, they have won nine of their L11 outright.
- Favored teams have held the upper hand in recent Big East bowl games, going 17-6 SU & 13-10 ATS (57%) since the ’03 season. During that span, Big East teams are 8-1 SU & 5-4 ATS (57%) as chalk, and 5-9 SU & 6-8 ATS (43%) as underdogs.
- As underdogs of 4-1/2 or more points in bowl games, Big East teams are a horrific 3-15 SU & 4-14 ATS (22%) in their L18 opportunities. In bowl games with double-digit pointspreads either way, the Big East is 2-11 ATS.
- The Big East has had recent success against two particular other conferences…5-0 SU & ATS vs. the Big 12 and 6-0 SU & ATS vs. the SEC.

 

[thenatural74]

Big Ten Conference

The Big Ten is the largest underdog of any league this bowl season. Only one of the seven teams that received bids is playing as a favorite, that being Iowa vs. South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. The other six clubs are dogs of at least 5-1/2 points, with four being double-digit pups. That could actually serve the Big Ten well over the next few weeks, as you’ll see from the third trend below that teams from this league are on a run of 25-13-1 ATS as dogs, and 15-8 ATS as dogs of a TD or more. "Play on" teams in terms of conference matchups would include Northwestern, Minnesota, and Ohio State, while Penn State would have to be included on the "fade list" in its Rose Bowl matchup with USC.
- Favorites in Big Ten bowl games went 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS a year ago, halting a 4-year run in which underdogs covered 17 of 20 games!
- As a bowl game dog, the Big Ten is on an extended run of 25- 13-1 ATS. In fact, the bigger the line, the better the Big Ten has been, boasting a record of 11-12 SU & 15-8 ATS (65%) as a dog of a TD or more.
- Strangely, on high totals, those 60 or above, OVER plays have been the more profitable side in Big Ten bowl games, 11-4 ATS (73%) in the L15.
- The Big Ten has thrived vs. the Big 12, 13-5 ATS (72%) in L18, but has struggled mightily with the Pac 10, 3-16-1 ATS (16%) in L20.




Big 12 Conference

Of the seven Big 12 teams in bowl games this winter, five are favored. Three of them are favorites of more than a TD, making them "fade" teams. These clubs are Missouri, Kansas, and Texas. Historically, where totals are concerned, the OVER is usually the best play with the Big 12, particularly when matched vs. the Pac 10. Keep that in mind in the Oklahoma State game. Also, in the BCS title game, Florida would seem to have the edge over Oklahoma based upon conference vs. conference history.
- Bowl games involving Big 12 teams have been very high scoring since 1/1/05, with an average of Big 12 28.2, Opponent 31.3. In that span of 29 games, the OVER is 20-9 (69%).
- As a heavy favorite in bowl games (-7 or more), the Big 12 has struggled to beat the Vegas number, going just 6-15-1 ATS (29%).
- When the Big 12 and Big Ten get together for bowl games, it’s been best to bet the underdog, as that team owns a 8-3 ATS (73%) mark in the L11. Likewise with the Big 12 & Pac 10. In that bowl series, the underdog is an incredible 16-3 ATS (84%) since ’98.
- When the Big 12 & Pac 10 get together in bowl games, you can also count on high scoring games. The L9 have produced 70.1 PPG and eight OVER plays.

 

[thenatural74]

Conference USA

Conference USA fields six bowl teams for the second straight season. The underdog/favorite dichotomy is split 3/3. Memphis and East Carolina could be in some trouble according to this league’s past struggles vs. BCS conferences, while all but Memphis would be affected negatively by how their lines are placed. Unfortunately, the list of C-USA bowl games finds no matchups vs. the WAC either but Rice and Houston are favored over non-BCS schools.
- Favored teams have won 23 of the last 27 Conference USA bowl games, covering the spread at a rate of 17-10 ATS (63%). As bowl game favorites, C-USA teams are just 14-10 SU & 11-13 ATS in their L24 however.
- Against BCS-level conferences, C-USA is just 0-7 SU & 1-5- 1 ATS in its L7 chances, while against other "B-level" leagues (MAC, WAC, Mtn. West) it is 8-4 SU & ATS. In fact, from that latter trend comes a 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS (86%) run as a favorite.
- C-USA’s best success has come against the WAC, with a record of 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS (82%). These have been incredibly high scoring games as well, averaging 73.1 PPG overall with nine of 11 OVER plays hitting.
- Line placement is key in C-USA bowl games. As a dog of 7-points or more, this league is 4-7 SU but 8-2-1 ATS (80%). In games with pointspreads between +5.5 and -5.5, or those expected to be competitive, C-USA is just 8-20 SU & 9-19 ATS (32%).




Independents

Navy opens up the bowl festivities for the second year in a row, playing Wake Forest in the Eagle Bank Bowl. The Middies, and Notre Dame are both underdogs for their respective contests.
- History has shown that the favorite is the only side to play in games involving Independent teams. Since ’93, the chalk owns a record of 18-3 SU & 13-8 ATS (62%).
- As bowl game favorites, Independent teams are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS since ’93. As underdogs, they are just 3-14 SU & 7-10 ATS (41%).




Mid-American Conference

After allowing 55.3 PPG in three bowl games last year, the MAC is beaming with five teams set to take the field this postseason. Three are favorites, and according to recent history, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois and Ball State are worthy of consideration because of it. Buffalo plays Connecticut, the only BCS conference foe for the MAC clubs.
- After going 6-0 SU & ATS in bowl games between 1998-02, the MAC has struggled, going 6-11 SU & 7-10 ATS (41%) since.
- Since 2002, favorites in MAC bowl games have dominated, 16-1 SU & 13-4 ATS (76%).
- Also since ’02, the MAC has been a bowl game underdog 10 times, going 0-10 SU & 2-8 ATS (20%) in the process.
- The MAC has dropped six of its L7 games outright against BCSlevel conferences, and is 2-5 ATS (28%) in that span, but is 2-0 SU & ATS (100%) vs. the Sun Belt.

 

[thenatural74]

Mountain West Conference

TCU is the only one of five Mountain West Conference bowl teams that is favored. BYU and Utah may be worthy of your betting dollar because they are underdogs of more than a field goal. The UNDER is Colorado State, TCU, and Air Force games also play into a 12-1 trend because of the opponents’ conferences.
- The Mountain West is on a nice run of 11-5 SU & 10-6 ATS (63%) in bowl games over the L4 seasons.
- The MWC defenses have stepped up in bowl games of late, holding eight of their L11 opponents to 20 points or less, resulting in seven UNDER’s.
- As an underdog of more than a field goal in bowl games, MWC teams have gone 3-5 SU & 6-2 ATS (75%) record. They’ve also been successful as large favorites of 6-1/2 points or more, 4-1 ATS (80%).
- MWC teams have formed distinct trends against other "B-level" conferences (C-USA, MAC, WAC), including 8-5 SU & ATS (62%), and 12-1 UNDER the total (92%). Average score: MWC 18.7, Opponent 16.1.




Pacific 10 Conference

Some of the most prolific bowl game trends involve teams from the Pac 10. This season, the league sends five teams in to postseason contests, four playing as favorites. Look for most of those four games to go OVER the total. Oregon is the only team that qualifies for the highly profitable Pac 10 bowl underdog trend. Arizona is the only team taking on a non-BCS league school (BYU), making the Wildcats a fade play in the Las Vegas Bowl.
- As a bowl game underdog, the Pac 10 has been a bankroll bulging 13-13 SU & 21-5 ATS (81%) since ’97.
- As a bowl game favorite, the Pac 10 has clearly controlled the tempo in games, going OVER the total in 12 of its L14 opportunities (86%).
- The Pac 10 has been awful against non-BCS, or lesser, conferences, going just 8-10 SU & 4-13 ATS (22%) in their L18 games!!! The UNDER is 11-6 (65%) in that scenario.
- When the Pac 10 & Big 12 square off in bowl games, you can bank on the fact that the underdog has a great shot to win. In fact, in the L19 meetings, the dog is 11-8 SU & 16-3 ATS (84%).

 

[thenatural74]

Southeastern Conference

The SEC is involved in eight of the final 15 bowl games of the season. Amazingly, five of the eight clubs from this power conference are playing as underdogs. Note that this league is 25- 10 ATS as a dog since ‘99 in bowl games, making Vanderbilt, LSU, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Kentucky worthy of consideration. Kentucky, and Alabama also get the benefit of playing non-BCS conference schools, while Vanderbilt and LSU get pitted against teams from the ACC, a league with the SEC has dominated historically. Florida will try to negate a trend that finds the SEC Big underdog owning the edge.
- The SEC has enjoyed a strong two year run in bowl games, going 12-5 SU & 11-5-1 ATS (69%). The UNDER is also 10-6 (63%) in that span.
- Tennessee’s BCS championship game upset of Florida State in ’99 started an incredible run of 25-10 ATS (71%) for this league as a bowl game underdog. The UNDER is a strong correlated parlay as well, 22-12 (65%).
- The SEC has only been matched up against a non-BCS conference five times in the L15 years, going 4-1 SU & ATS (80%).
- SEC teams have enjoyed bowl success against the ACC, 16-4 SU & 13-5-2 ATS (72%) in the L20.
- When SEC and Big 12 teams meet in bowl games, bet the dog, 16-8 ATS (67%) this decade.




Sun Belt Conference

The same two teams that reached the postseason last year from the Sun Belt are back in ’08. According to conference & favorite/ underdog trends, Troy would be the play against Southern Miss, while Central Michigan would be the right side over Florida Atlantic.
- The Sun Belt has been receiving bowl game invitations since 2001 and is 3-6 SU & 4-5 ATS (44%) in their L9 opportunities.
- Sun Belt teams had never been favored in a bowl game prior to ’07 when Florida Atlantic beat Memphis 44-27 as 3-1/2 point chalk.
- Four of the L5 (80%) Sun Belt bowl games have gone OVER the total.
- Sun Belt teams are 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS vs. C-USA in bowl games, 0-3 SU & ATS against everyone else.




Western Athletic Conference

The five WAC bowl teams are all expected to be in competitive games, as not a single one of the pointspreads for those contests exceeds 3-points. The WAC club is favored in two of them, making Hawaii & Fresno State teams to add to the "fade list". Boise State and Lousiana Tech meanwhile, are backed by a 20- 10 WAC bowl game underdog angle.
- Bowl days have been dog days when involving WAC teams, as the underdogs own a 14-16 SU & 20-10 ATS (67%) record since ’99.
- Don’t play WAC teams as favorites, 5-6 SU & 2-9 ATS (18%), since ’99.
- WAC teams as double-digit dogs in bowl games have won just once outright, but are a perfect 5-0 ATS (100%).
- The WAC’s most frequent bowl opponent is Conference USA. In the L11 bowl games between these non-BCS leagues, C-USA and the underdog are both 9-2 ATS (82%), and the OVER the total shares that same mark.

 

[thenatural74]

EAGLE BANK BOWL

Week 16 Saturday, 12/20/2008 11:00 AM

NAVY (8 - 4) vs. WAKE FOREST (7 - 5)

The bowl season starts in our nation’s capital with a whimper. The Deamon Deacons have a pretty stout rushing defense, holding opponents to 116 yards per game, but they'll need to be better than that to slow down the Midshipmen, who average 298 rushing yards per game, tops in the nation. Right about now, Jim Grobe is probably wishing his team had faced ACC foe Georgia Tech, which runs the same offense as Navy, but it didn't, and that will make it tough on his team when they meet in Washington, D.C. It’s a rematch (any bowls worst nightmare) of Navy and Wake Forest from Sept. 27, when Navy pulled the 24-17 upset catching 17-points on the road. The Demon Deacons turned out to be vastly overrated and are just 13-24 ATS as a favorite. The Navy’s top-rated running game deserves most of the attention at 294.7 YPG, however many will be singing the praises of the defense off consecutive shutouts. The Midshipmen have been one of the best spread teams for a numbers of years and they are 18-5 ATS in all December games since 1992. A 6-7-1 bowl record is fair, but a 7-2 ATS mark will fatten a wallet.

Play On - Any team (NAVY) - in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) after 7+ games, after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game.
(65-30 since 1992.) (68.4%, +32 units)
NAVY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when they allow 5 to 5.5 total yards per play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NAVY 35.1, OPPONENT 19.6
NAVY is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games when they allow 22 to 28 points since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 22.3, OPPONENT 26.4
NAVY is 36-14 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road games when they gain 100 or less net passing yards since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 26.3, OPPONENT 24.1
NAVY is 56-27 ATS (+26.3 Units) in road games when they gain 150 or less net passing yards since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 25.4, OPPONENT 25.5
NAVY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when they allow 100 to 150 rushing yards since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 30.3, OPPONENT 22.8
NAVY is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) when they rush for 200 to 250 yards since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 23.1, OPPONENT 28.1
NAVY is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games when their defense forces 2 turnovers since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 28.0, OPPONENT 24.1
WAKE FOREST is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when they allow 7.5 to 8 net passing yards/attempt since 1992.
The average score was WAKE FOREST 16.8, OPPONENT 28.4
WAKE FOREST is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when they allow 4 to 4.5 rushing yards per attempt since 1992.
The average score was WAKE FOREST 18.5, OPPONENT 27.7
NAVY is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=310 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 30.0, OPPONENT 21.6
NAVY is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=4.5 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 29.0, OPPONENT 23.7
WAKE FOREST is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was WAKE FOREST 24.8, OPPONENT 28.7
NAVY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NAVY 34.2, OPPONENT 23.8
NAVY is 57-32 ATS (+21.8 Units) in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 29.0, OPPONENT 26.4
NAVY is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 30.5, OPPONENT 20.2
NAVY is 44-19 ATS (+23.1 Units) after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game since 1992.
The average score was NAVY 29.8, OPPONENT 24.1


My opinion in this game is to take:

NAVY MIDSHIPMEN +3

 

[thenatural74]

New Mexico Bowl

Week 16 Saturday, 12/20/2008 2:30 PM

FRESNO ST (7 - 5) vs. COLORADO ST (6 - 6)

When asked which team did I believe was the worst of the 68 bowl teams in 2008, my answer was quick: Colorado State. If that’s not enough evidence to play the opponent, in this case Fresno State, in a game featuring a field goal pointspread, than I shall present more. If you look back at what this line would have been around September, the Bulldogs would have been favored by probably 8. Now, with so long in between games, it’s like a fresh start for both teams. I think you’ll see a Fresno State team closer to the one that started ’08, than the one that played the second half at Boise State.

**Play Under - Any team against the total (COLORADO ST) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences. (26-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units)

~The average total posted in these games was: 53.5

~The average score in these games was: Team 21.4, Opponent 21.4 (Total points scored = 42.8)

~The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 18 (60% of all games.)



Play Under - Any team against the total (COLORADO ST) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences.
(26-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (COLORADO ST) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP) after 7+ games.
(58-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.7%, +31.6 units)

Play Under - Any team against the total (FRESNO ST) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences.
(26-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units)

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (FRESNO ST) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 YPP) after 7+ games.
(58-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.7%, +31.6 units)

FRESNO ST is 46-28 UNDER (+15.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 31.2, OPPONENT 24.2

Hill is 28-13 UNDER (+13.7 Units) after playing 2 straight conference games as the coach of FRESNO ST.
The average score was FRESNO ST 32.0, OPPONENT 20.3

Hill is 41-24 UNDER (+14.6 Units) in games played on a grass field as the coach of FRESNO ST.
The average score was FRESNO ST 30.5, OPPONENT 21.6

**Play On - Any team (FRESNO ST) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season. (189-119 over the last 10 seasons.) (61.4%, +58.1 units)

~The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (192-120 over the last 10 seasons.)

~The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.3

~The average score in these games was: Team 29.4, Opponent 23.9 (Average point differential = +5.5)

~The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 115 (37.3% of all games.)



Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (COLORADO ST) - off a road win against a conference rival against opponent off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival.
(35-13 since 1992.) (72.9%, +20.7 units)

Play On - Any team (FRESNO ST) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season.
(189-119 over the last 10 seasons.) (61.4%, +58.1 units)

Play On - Any team (FRESNO ST) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
(77-36 over the last 10 seasons.) (68.1%, +37.4 units)

FRESNO ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 38.8, OPPONENT 27.2

FRESNO ST is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 39.7, OPPONENT 26.1

COLORADO ST is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt since 1992.
The average score was COLORADO ST 22.8, OPPONENT 35.9

COLORADO ST is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992.
The average score was COLORADO ST 25.5, OPPONENT 40.1

Hill is 32-21 ATS (+8.9 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games as the coach of FRESNO ST.
The average score was FRESNO ST 34.0, OPPONENT 19.8



My opinion in this game is to take:

UNDER 61

&

FRESNO -2 (hook)

 

[thenatural74]

St. Petersburg Bowl

Week 16 Saturday, 12/20/2008 4:30 PM

MEMPHIS (6 - 6) vs. S FLORIDA (7 - 5)

In past bowl games with double-digit pointspreads, the Big East is 2-11 ATS. In other words, the conference isn’t good enough to be a double-digit favorite and it isn’t that poor where it should get routed in bowl games. Here, South Florida is given the benefit of the doubt by oddsmakers, seemingly because it is playing in its own backyard. However, it’s awfully tough to look past the fact that the Bulls have scored just 14.0 PPG over their L5 and have basically underachieved all season long. They are not a team that is likely to be thrilled by the prospect of going to the season’s third bowl game located right across the bay. South Florida struggled offensively at the end of the season, failing to score more than 20 points in the final five games and producing a season-low for points in its finale, a 13-7 loss at West Virginia. Junior quarterback Matt Grothe struggled down the stretch for the Bulls, throwing 11 interceptions in the last five games, winning only one. Memphis meanwhile, has an offense that played very well down the stretch, and is a team that is 9-1 ATS in its L10 games vs. good defenses yielding <=310 YPG. The Memphis offense is well-ballanced, averaging 226 yards through the air and 202 yards on the ground. Helping Memphis (6-6) become one of the nation's top rushing teams was the addition of junior running back Curtis Steele. The junior college transfer had 1,175 yards and seven touchdowns to become the school's first 1,000-yard rusher since DeAngelo Williams in 2005.

West is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was West 21.6, OPPONENT 25.8

West is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game as the coach of MEMPHIS.
The average score was MEMPHIS 31.9, OPPONENT 26.5

West is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=120 rushing yards/game as the coach of MEMPHIS.
The average score was MEMPHIS 27.5, OPPONENT 27.7

West is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=3.25 rushing yards/carry in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was West 18.9, OPPONENT 22.9

West is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=310 yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was West 18.8, OPPONENT 25.7

West is 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) in road games in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was West 25.8, OPPONENT 24.3

Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.



My opinion in this game is to take:

MEMPHIS + 13

 

[thenatural74]

Las Vegas Bowl

Week 16 Saturday, 12/20/2008 8:00 PM

BYU (10 - 2) vs. ARIZONA (7 - 5)

The Cougars are no strangers to playing in Las Vegas. They've won the last two bowls at Sam Boyd Stadium, blocking a field goal last year to preserve a 17-16 win over UCLA and defeating Oregon 38-8 in 2006. BYU should be the favorite coming into the game as they boast a high powered offense which scored over thirty points 8 times this season for a 10-2 record. Quarterback Max Hall has thrown for 34 Touchdowns against only 13 interceptions so offense should be no problem for BYU. Need more offensive justification? Look no farther than tailback Harvey Unga who rushed for over 1,000 yards this season. Admittedly the Cougars have been struggling somewhat defensively allowing over 32 points per game in the second half of the season. Even with the nation’s second place finisher in passing yards the Arizona Wildcats will have a hard time against a defense that has held their opponents to just 188 pass yards and 153 rush yards on average. Arizona is 20th in the nation in total defense (302.1), but has been vulnerable when playing away from Tucson. The Wildcats limited opponents to 14.7 points in their seven home games, but gave up 30.6 in their five road contests.

**Play On - Any team (BYU) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season. (189-119 over the last 10 seasons.) (61.4%, +58.1 units)

~The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (192-120 over the last 10 seasons.)

~The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.3

~The average score in these games was: Team 29.4, Opponent 23.9 (Average point differential = +5.5)

~The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 115 (37.3% of all games.)



BYU is 68-43 ATS (+20.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992.
The average score was BYU 40.0, OPPONENT 23.6

ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 29.7, OPPONENT 37.6

BYU is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=310 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was BYU 26.8, OPPONENT 21.8

ARIZONA is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 24.6, OPPONENT 24.2

ARIZONA is 29-55 ATS (-31.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 28.3, OPPONENT 19.2

BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons.

Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.

Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. MWC.



My opinion in this game is to take:

BYU +3

 

[thenatural74]

Good Luck today Everyone!!!