Nationals tonight

[letsgohoosiers]

Across the board you see +170 on the Nats. Pinnacle positions themselves at +169 (you're going elsewhere to bet this team) and -125 on the run line (market number, can find better elsewhere). You can still land +177 at BetOnline (I have taken this number). Line is heading in the Nationals direction here, while the square side is the Rockies.

IMO the run line is a FANTASTIC bet. In Vegas you see +1.5 (-110) at Stations, BetEd and SIA both have +1.5 (-110). If you get this number at any of your outs take it, 4.26% EDGE. Easily scalp-able with Pinnacle (+115).

The one thing that concerns me is while the majority of bets are on the Rockies it doesn't appear to be a real "square" bet. I think squares are looking at -180 or higher and saying to themselves "I'm not paying that!" and opting for the -1.5, giving you a great price on +1.5 at square shops.

I'd put 4 units on +1.5 (-110) and 1 unit on +180. Would downgrade to 2 units at -115 and wouldn't play at -120. Wouldn't play the Nationals under +175.

 

[MemphisMonroe]

I took the runline at -115. goodluck to us.

 

[Sea-Urchin]

The dogs been barking like a bitch lately. I like this play. BOL!

 

[Nv4]

value dog Nat +165:grandmais

 

[letsgohoosiers]

value dog Nat +165:grandmais

No.

 

[letsgohoosiers]

.10 move to the Rockies a minute before close. You gotta be kidding me.

 

[KingLebronOwnzu23]

moved 15 by sbg global to -185 for the rox

 

[MemphisMonroe]

Least you won on moneyline. I get jack shit cause nats wanted to bat forever in the 8th

 

[hiLIFE]

yeah..that sucks......fuckin cancelled rl bet. at least i had some on the ml too

 

[KingLebronOwnzu23]

Least you won on moneyline. I get jack shit cause nats wanted to bat forever in the 8th

thats not true! they were just doing their job having fun doing it.. like most people do when they go to work :lol:

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I dont get why you wouldnt bet the Nats at +160. I for one like to see the dog bet down when the public is on the other side, especially when im on the dog!

 

[goblue12]

I dont get why you wouldnt bet the Nats at +160. I for one like to see the dog bet down when the public is on the other side, especially when im on the dog!

That thought process is exactly why the +1.5 market is inefficient and a potential gold mine for sharps.

 

[1968]

check out pinnacle's RL #s on this early game.

 

[LockedampLoaded]

check out pinnacle's RL #s on this early game.

Made a play on Pitt +1.5 +110(local)

@)

 

[goblue12]

Made a play on Pitt +1.5 +110(local)

@)

BetEd had that exact same number. I just bet them to the limit on the Pirates.

GL 1-0 Pirates!!!

 

[letsgohoosiers]

check out pinnacle's RL #s on this early game.

The M Resort put out Pirates RL. +1.5 (-125).

Line was moving in Pittsburgh's direction while 75% of bets were on the Cubs.

Pinnacle had -115. Still worse than the entire market.

 

[LockedampLoaded]

BetEd had that exact same number. I just bet them to the limit on the Pirates.

GL 1-0 Pirates!!!

3-0 <><>

:smoking:

 

[olim]

ended up taking the pirates RL afterall after seeing pinnacles late reverse line movement

 

[LockedampLoaded]

ended up taking the pirates RL afterall

So did I :howdy:
I guess its really all about waiting till the last minute olim

:smoker2:

 

[LockedampLoaded]

What about Seattle tonite @)