Florida Gators vs. Texas Longhorns
Fr. LHP Stephen Locke vs. Fr. RHP Adrian Alaniz/ Soph. RHP Kyle McCulloch
General Impression
Texas is making their 3rd National Title appearance in 4 years. Florida is making their 1st ever National Title appearance. Florida was in a great position to make this an interesting series, until they lost game 1 vs. ASU, then Alan Horne went down with a hamstring injury. That forced Florida to use Horne, injure him, and then burn #2 Tommy Boss in relief. #3 starter Ball has elbow problems after starts, so he won't be able to go on short rest. That means Florida's developmental freshman lefthander Stephen Locke will have to take on the Texas Longhorns and all of their WS tradition.
Florida's Starter
Florida starts LHP Stephen Locke. Locke is a true freshman who has pitched some mid-week games and done well against smaller schools. With #3 Balls' tender elbow, he had some spot starts on Sunday's in the SEC and faired well. Not dominant, but well. Today he will face his biggest task ever. He has a Gator Nation on his back with the pressure of playing in the school's first ever National Title appearance against the best college baseball school in the history of the game. Sometimes freshmen don't understand the magnitude of the situation, so this isnt a play against experience. This is a play against bunt defense. Texas is the most fundamentally sound bunting team in the game. They will bunt from inning #1, to inning #9. If they get a man on in inning #1, straight to the bunt. They LOVE to manufacture runs, they love to keep constant pressure on the defense and create holes in the defense by forcing the defense to play the bunt. The problem is Locke. Locke is a freshman so this is his 1st year being introduced to the bunt defense at Florida. Locke is a lefty, and lefties mechanically have a harder time fielding bunts and throwing to 1st because they have to turn their backs to homeplate and make difficult throws. Couple that with the surface being wet from rain on and off, and you have to tippy toe to field bunts, not go after them aggressively to prevent a slip and fall, and I can see a costly error or two in this game on Florida's defense. Florida's bullpen is rested, and they are hoping for 5 innings from Locke, and then they will turn it over to Falkenbach and O'Day. If that happens, Florida is in decent shape for this game. Locke also is at a disadvantage facing a right-handed dominant Texas lineup while he is a lefty.
Texas' Starter
Texas will start RH soph. Kyle McCulloch, or RH freshman Adrian Alaniz. My guess is they start Alaniz since they started him in game 1 of Omaha and he has the most rest. It's his turn to go. I'm not sure how Alaniz fares against this Florida offense. Florida has shown they can struggle all game with offense and with 1 swing of the bat, they could change the game. The Gators have done very well against right handed pitching this post-season, and Alaniz is a solid freshman who will have to pitch well in this game and keep the ball down in the strike zone. Their bullpen is phenomenal if he struggles, and they can run a bunch of guys out there, including J.Brent Cox their stud closer to seal the game if they have the lead in hand.
Florida's Mismatch
Florida's mismatch in this game is their ability to hit the long ball with a consistent threat 1-6 in their order. No lead is safe against Florida at any time in the game, and that makes them a decent dog at this price. This game will rely on how well Jeff Corsaletti gets on base, and more importantly, how their leadoff men get on base in each inning and he's the key to the Florida offense. I look for Florida to use their power reputation against Texas and give Texas a taste of their own medicine, and I look for Florida to try to get men on base anyway they can- Via hit by pitch, walk, errors, and bunting for basehits.
Texas' Mismatch
Texas has a huge experience advantage in this game. They have the intangibles, post-season mystique, etc. Now they will have the offensive advantage, with the wet playing surface for their bunting game, the lefty of the mound, the freshman on the mound, etc. Little known fact, although Florida's offense is great, most people havn't seen their offense at their best yet. Texas is batting about .300 in Omaha, while Florida is batting .222. Texas has the energy and rest advantage, pitching depth advantage, and starting pitching advantage. They have the big-game experience in this one.
Bottom Line
Once this game is over, and it's game 2, Texas wont have as much as an experience advantage. Florida will start Boss, so starting pitching may not big as big of an advantage. If the weather clears up, the wet playing surface isn't an issue anymore, etc. But for this game 1, all signs point to Texas, and it's a half decent price to get them at.
My Line
Texas -210
Current Line
Texas -192
My Play
(5 units) Texas -192
If Alaniz is the announced starter for Texas officially, I will buy back 2 units and make this a 3 unit play. If McCulloch is announced as the starter, I will buy 2 more units to Texas to make it a 7 unit play, if the price is within .10 cents. I trust McCulloch on the mound for Texas a lot more than Alaniz. McCulloch has a nice slider he keeps low in the zone and fools a lot of hitters. That should take away some of Florida's HR threats. Alaniz might have the tendency to leave the ball up and make some mistakes judging how he pitches, and Florida could make some mistakes hurt. At the end of game 1, I fully expect Texas to be on top, and the Gators to adjust in game 2 to Texas' bunt defense.
Best of Luck.
Fr. LHP Stephen Locke vs. Fr. RHP Adrian Alaniz/ Soph. RHP Kyle McCulloch
General Impression
Texas is making their 3rd National Title appearance in 4 years. Florida is making their 1st ever National Title appearance. Florida was in a great position to make this an interesting series, until they lost game 1 vs. ASU, then Alan Horne went down with a hamstring injury. That forced Florida to use Horne, injure him, and then burn #2 Tommy Boss in relief. #3 starter Ball has elbow problems after starts, so he won't be able to go on short rest. That means Florida's developmental freshman lefthander Stephen Locke will have to take on the Texas Longhorns and all of their WS tradition.
Florida's Starter
Florida starts LHP Stephen Locke. Locke is a true freshman who has pitched some mid-week games and done well against smaller schools. With #3 Balls' tender elbow, he had some spot starts on Sunday's in the SEC and faired well. Not dominant, but well. Today he will face his biggest task ever. He has a Gator Nation on his back with the pressure of playing in the school's first ever National Title appearance against the best college baseball school in the history of the game. Sometimes freshmen don't understand the magnitude of the situation, so this isnt a play against experience. This is a play against bunt defense. Texas is the most fundamentally sound bunting team in the game. They will bunt from inning #1, to inning #9. If they get a man on in inning #1, straight to the bunt. They LOVE to manufacture runs, they love to keep constant pressure on the defense and create holes in the defense by forcing the defense to play the bunt. The problem is Locke. Locke is a freshman so this is his 1st year being introduced to the bunt defense at Florida. Locke is a lefty, and lefties mechanically have a harder time fielding bunts and throwing to 1st because they have to turn their backs to homeplate and make difficult throws. Couple that with the surface being wet from rain on and off, and you have to tippy toe to field bunts, not go after them aggressively to prevent a slip and fall, and I can see a costly error or two in this game on Florida's defense. Florida's bullpen is rested, and they are hoping for 5 innings from Locke, and then they will turn it over to Falkenbach and O'Day. If that happens, Florida is in decent shape for this game. Locke also is at a disadvantage facing a right-handed dominant Texas lineup while he is a lefty.
Texas' Starter
Texas will start RH soph. Kyle McCulloch, or RH freshman Adrian Alaniz. My guess is they start Alaniz since they started him in game 1 of Omaha and he has the most rest. It's his turn to go. I'm not sure how Alaniz fares against this Florida offense. Florida has shown they can struggle all game with offense and with 1 swing of the bat, they could change the game. The Gators have done very well against right handed pitching this post-season, and Alaniz is a solid freshman who will have to pitch well in this game and keep the ball down in the strike zone. Their bullpen is phenomenal if he struggles, and they can run a bunch of guys out there, including J.Brent Cox their stud closer to seal the game if they have the lead in hand.
Florida's Mismatch
Florida's mismatch in this game is their ability to hit the long ball with a consistent threat 1-6 in their order. No lead is safe against Florida at any time in the game, and that makes them a decent dog at this price. This game will rely on how well Jeff Corsaletti gets on base, and more importantly, how their leadoff men get on base in each inning and he's the key to the Florida offense. I look for Florida to use their power reputation against Texas and give Texas a taste of their own medicine, and I look for Florida to try to get men on base anyway they can- Via hit by pitch, walk, errors, and bunting for basehits.
Texas' Mismatch
Texas has a huge experience advantage in this game. They have the intangibles, post-season mystique, etc. Now they will have the offensive advantage, with the wet playing surface for their bunting game, the lefty of the mound, the freshman on the mound, etc. Little known fact, although Florida's offense is great, most people havn't seen their offense at their best yet. Texas is batting about .300 in Omaha, while Florida is batting .222. Texas has the energy and rest advantage, pitching depth advantage, and starting pitching advantage. They have the big-game experience in this one.
Bottom Line
Once this game is over, and it's game 2, Texas wont have as much as an experience advantage. Florida will start Boss, so starting pitching may not big as big of an advantage. If the weather clears up, the wet playing surface isn't an issue anymore, etc. But for this game 1, all signs point to Texas, and it's a half decent price to get them at.
My Line
Texas -210
Current Line
Texas -192
My Play
(5 units) Texas -192
If Alaniz is the announced starter for Texas officially, I will buy back 2 units and make this a 3 unit play. If McCulloch is announced as the starter, I will buy 2 more units to Texas to make it a 7 unit play, if the price is within .10 cents. I trust McCulloch on the mound for Texas a lot more than Alaniz. McCulloch has a nice slider he keeps low in the zone and fools a lot of hitters. That should take away some of Florida's HR threats. Alaniz might have the tendency to leave the ball up and make some mistakes judging how he pitches, and Florida could make some mistakes hurt. At the end of game 1, I fully expect Texas to be on top, and the Gators to adjust in game 2 to Texas' bunt defense.
Best of Luck.