Nate Silver's First Extensive Data Driven Story about Hillary V Drumpf

[The Guesser]

Some Great Stuff in here by the Best In The Biz-I-Ness: As Usual, Come late October, Nate will "Nail It" with real numbers, not hopes and wishes like the usual suspects do down here every 4 years:

Who will win the presidency?

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Chance of winning
Hillary Clinton
80.3%

Donald Trump​

19.7​

Electoral votes



Hillary Clinton

353.8


Donald Trump

183.4


Gary Johnson

0.8



Popular vote



Hillary Clinton

49.1%


Donald Trump

41.8%


Gary Johnson

7.8%





How the odds have changed

We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 8.
JUNE 8JULYAUG.SEPT.OCT.NOV.0255075100%ELECTION DAYNOV. 8▼JUNE 29





80.3%Clinton80.3%Clinton19.7%Trump19.7%Trump<0.1%Johnson<0.1%Johnson
Who’s ahead in each state and by how much

Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20,000 times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome.
KEY
AVERAGE





80% CHANCE OUTCOME FALLS IN THIS RANGE


Expected margin of victoryLeader's chanceof winning+75+50+25+25+50+75MissouriR+152.7%ArizonaD+155.0%GeorgiaR+156.8%North CarolinaD+260.5%South CarolinaR+260.6%MississippiR+467.5%KansasR+467.2%IndianaR+570.2%ColoradoD+568.3%OhioD+570.8%TexasR+571.4%IowaD+570.1%FloridaD+673.7%UtahR+675.1%South DakotaR+769.8%MontanaR+771.5%VirginiaD+778.6%NevadaD+775.9%New HampshireD+774.6%North DakotaR+771.2%PennsylvaniaD+881.3%AlaskaR+871.2%TennesseeR+981.9%WisconsinD+1086.0%OregonD+1085.2%MinnesotaD+1085.8%KentuckyR+1185.2%MaineD+1182.9%NebraskaR+1184.9%ArkansasR+1187.8%New MexicoD+1187.1%LouisianaR+1289.9%MichiganD+1290.7%ConnecticutD+1389.2%AlabamaR+1390.5%New JerseyD+1391.6%WashingtonD+1491.9%IdahoR+1693.8%IllinoisD+1896.9%DelawareD+1993.2%West VirginiaR+2096.3%OklahomaR+2097.6%CaliforniaD+2198.6%New YorkD+2298.7%Rhode IslandD+2295.3%WyomingR+2393.0%MassachusettsD+2698.8%VermontD+2996.7%MarylandD+3199.8%HawaiiD+3799.6%D.C.D+73>99.9%

Show all states ▾​

It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes

Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winn


MEFLVTNHMIMAWICTRIWAMTMNPAIDNDOHNJWYSDILORINCANEIANYMDDENVUTCOKSDCMOKYVAOKAZNMARTNNCTXMSALGALASCAKHIWV
KEY

50%​

60​

70​

80​

90​

CLINTON'S CHANCES














TRUMP'S CHANCES

















ONE ELECTORAL VOTE




Our latest coverage

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What to expect from the Electoral College

A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to clinch the White House. In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently.
50100150200250300350400450500Clinton’s electoral votes00.20.40.60.8% CHANCEClinton wins →50100150200250300350400450500Trump’s electoral votes00.20.40.60.8% CHANCETrump wins →
Who’s winning the popular vote

Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote. The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident.
0%255075100Clinton


49.1%49.1%Trump


41.8%41.8%Johnson


7.8%7.8%
KEY

AVERAGE





80% CHANCE OUTCOME FALLS IN THIS RANGE



Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios

Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.

Electoral College tie 269 votes for each candidate	0.3%
Recount At least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt	3.6%
Clinton wins popular vote	83.5%
Trump wins popular vote	16.4%
Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College	3.8%
Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College	0.6%
Johnson wins at least one electoral vote	5.7%
Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote	43.0%
Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote	3.5%
Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin	36.3%
Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin	1.9%
Map exactly the same as in 2012	0.1%
Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012	87.9%
Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012	63.7%

How this forecast works

Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2016 general election forecast. Read more …


Poll results aggregated from HuffPost Pollster, RealClearPolitics, polling firms and news reports.
Forecast models by Nate Silver. Research by Jennifer Kanjana and Dhrumil Mehta. Design and development by Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe, Reuben Fischer-Baum, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Allison McCann, Andrei Scheinkman and Gus Wezerek. Candidate portraits by Kristina Micotti. Have thoughts on our forecast? Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email.

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[The Guesser]

Horrid Formatting, unfortunately. Here's the link for the few smart guys down here that want to see facts. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

[roadreeler57]

Yeah right.....This Silver tard predicted Rubio in the primaries....How did that work out?

 

[The Guesser]

Yeah right.....This Silver tard predicted Rubio in the primaries....How did that work out?

His opinion, before hard and consistent numbers came out, was Rubio. When the Numbers came out, that showed Drumpf was strongly in the lead in polls, Nate posted that. He is data driven, not wishes and hopes driven, like you fools. Opinions are often wrong, data rarely is. It's still way early, but Numbers are numbers. When/if they change, his %'s will change.

 

[BleedingPurple]

How about democrat -385 election? That was the other day, must be updating odds cause off board. Trump +255. About the braves chances beating Kershaw in LA

 

[The Guesser]

How about democrat -385 election? That was the other day, must be updating odds cause off board. Trump +255. About the braves chances beating Kershaw in LA

That will change, both higher and lower. I think there will be a big time Buying Opportunity on Hillary during and right after the R Convention, maybe the last one, to set up some great scalps. I think(hope) she goes down to -150 or lower.

 

[Willie99]

"it's simple math"

"Marco Rubio"

next

 

[Albatross]

Trump has been difficult for Silver to predict. I think its going to be really close.

 

[The Guesser]

Trump has been difficult for Silver to predict. I think its going to be really close.

My only prediction so far, is that the election won't be close. I think it'll be a blowout, with the winner beating the loser by double digits, and an Electoral College blowout. It'll more likely be Hillary, but there are certainly scenarios, most of which sadly involve some kind of disaster, either economically and/or terror related, that happen closer to Election day, where it could be Drumpf.
Silver will just go wherever the numbers tell him.

 

[vitterd]

"it's simple math"

"Marco Rubio"

next

Wrong way mocking Silver on a prediction.

Lmao

 

[SheriffJoe]

7 Times Nate Silver Was Hilariously Wrong About Donald Trump

It’s been a rough election cycle for forecasting guru Nate Silver and his website FiveThirtyEight. Silver became a household name after he almost perfectly predicted the results of the 2008 and 2012 general elections, and his esteem was such that to some people he had removed almost all the suspense from elections.

Then Trump happened.

Nate Silver and his colleagues at FiveThirtyEight were extremely dismissive of Trump’s chances even after he rose to the top of the polls in the summer of 2015, and they repeatedly said as much. But ultimately, Trump proved to be a “black swan” event that was devastating to the retrospective models Silver relies upon to make predictions. Silver himself has been forthright about his failure, issuing a mea culpa early Wednesday morning.

Here’s seven times when Silver’s website made forecasts about Trump that proved totally wrong.

1. June 16, 2015: Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart

The first anti-Trump volley at FiveThirtyEight was fired by Harry Enten, the website’s election specialist. Enten’s “one chart” that showed Trump wasn’t a real candidate was one showing the net favorability of 106 presidential candidates since 1980. Trump’s high name recognition combined with a staggering -32 favorability made him the least-liked presidential candidate of all time, Enten said.
“For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.,” Enten said.

2. July 16, 2015: Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously

Another Enten article, this piece assures readers that while Trump is rising in the polls (he was second behind Jeb Bush at the time), that’s no reason to regard him as a new Republican frontrunner.

“In reality, the broad, shallow nature of Trump’s support suggests it’s due mostly to near-universal name recognition, thanks in part to being in the news more often than the news anchors,” he said.

3. July 20, 2015: Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll

Silver finally weighed in with this article, where he described Trump as a “troll” candidate, who was thriving simply by virtue of the tremendous attention he could receive by insulting everybody and not playing by the rules. Trolling, he suggested, had its political limits and would almost certainly deny Trump the nomination.

“Trump has taken trolling to the next level by being willing to offend members of his own party. Ordinarily, this would be a counterproductive strategy. In a 16-candidate field, however, you can be in first place with 15 or 20 percent of the vote — even if the other 80 or 85 percent of voters hate your guts.
“In the long run — as our experience with past trolls shows — Trump’s support will probably fade. Or at least, given his high unfavorable ratings, it will plateau, and other candidates will surpass him as the rest of the field consolidates.”


​

4. Aug. 6, 2015: Donald Trump’s Six Stages of Doom

This article likened Trump’s candidacy to a variety of other insurgent Republican campaigns in the past 20 years, from Pat Buchanan in 1996 to Herman Cain in 2012.

“The lesson … is that Trump’s campaign will fail by one means or another. Like Cain, Bachmann and Gingrich, Buchanan, Huckabee and Forbes came nowhere close to winning the Republican nomination,” Silver wrote. He pegged Trump’s odds of winning the nomination at 2 percent, and laid out the so-called “six stages of doom” for his campaign.

Trump would eventually be undone, Silver said, by the many roadblocks in his way. He could disappoint in Iowa or New Hampshire, hit a ceiling as the field shrank, botch delegate accumulation in caucus states, or encounter a concerted GOP effort to sabotage him at the convention. Ultimately, all of these factors influenced the race… and none of them were enough to halt the Trump train.

5. Aug. 11, 2015: Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls, And Losing The Nomination

With Trump’s poll support apparently only increasing with time, Silver sought to explain how Trump’s surge in the polls was actually coming at the expense of any chance he had of actually winning the nomination.

In Silver’s telling, Trump’s abrasive, attention-getting rhetoric was serving to make the primary a “referendum” on Trump, a referendum where 75 percent of Republicans were voting against him. Other GOP candidates had less support, but were at least viewed positively by the party. Once the field shrank, Silver said, one of them would almost certainly be able to crush Trump head to head.

“Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination,” Silver said. “It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so.”

6. Nov. 23, 2015: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

Three months later, Trump was still stubbornly refusing to fade away. So, Silver waded back into the fray to tell the news media to stop panicking, and to declare that betting market odds placing Trump’s chances of victory at 20 percent were “substantially too high.”

The key problems with believing in Trump, Silver said, were his persistently-high unfavorability even among Republicans, along with the fact that the vast majority of voters would only decide whom to support at the last minute. Those last-minute deciders, Silver suggested, could break against Trump in a big way.

“[C]ould Trump win?,” he asked. “We confront two stubborn facts: first, that nobody remotely like Trump has won a major-party nomination in the modern era. And second, as is always a problem in analysis of presidential campaigns, we don’t have all that many data points, so unprecedented events can occur with some regularity. For my money, that adds up to Trump’s chances being higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent. Your mileage may vary.”

7. Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan

Silver was quick to pounce after Trump finished second to Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses.

“Trump underperformed his polls, which had him winning Iowa with 29 percent of the vote, while Cruz and Rubio outperformed theirs,” he wrote. “It’s not uncommon for the polls to be off in Iowa and other early-voting states, but the manner in which Trump underachieved is revealing. It turns out that few late-deciding voters went for him … Iowa voters made Trump appear to be much more of a factional candidate along the lines of [Pat] Buchanan, who received 23 percent of Iowa’s vote in 1996, than the juggernaut he’s been billed as.”Still, Trump’s sustained polling success was finally cracking even Silver’s resolve. Instead of being openly dismissive of Trump, he simply noted that Trump’s real strength would be revealed by how New Hampshire voted. We all know how that went. On Feb. 10, Silver finally anointed Trump as the GOP frontrunner.

Follow Blake on Twitter

Send tips to blake@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.

Content created by The Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.

Tags: Donald Trump, Elections 2016, FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7...ously-wrong-about-donald-trump/#ixzz4D4JkxoKK

 

[SheriffJoe]

"it's simple math"

"Marco Rubio"

next

 

[Willie99]

7 Times Nate Silver Was Hilariously Wrong About Donald Trump

It’s been a rough election cycle for forecasting guru Nate Silver and his website FiveThirtyEight. Silver became a household name after he almost perfectly predicted the results of the 2008 and 2012 general elections, and his esteem was such that to some people he had removed almost all the suspense from elections.

Then Trump happened.

Nate Silver and his colleagues at FiveThirtyEight were extremely dismissive of Trump’s chances even after he rose to the top of the polls in the summer of 2015, and they repeatedly said as much. But ultimately, Trump proved to be a “black swan” event that was devastating to the retrospective models Silver relies upon to make predictions. Silver himself has been forthright about his failure, issuing a mea culpa early Wednesday morning.

Here’s seven times when Silver’s website made forecasts about Trump that proved totally wrong.

1. June 16, 2015: Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart

The first anti-Trump volley at FiveThirtyEight was fired by Harry Enten, the website’s election specialist. Enten’s “one chart” that showed Trump wasn’t a real candidate was one showing the net favorability of 106 presidential candidates since 1980. Trump’s high name recognition combined with a staggering -32 favorability made him the least-liked presidential candidate of all time, Enten said.
“For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.,” Enten said.

2. July 16, 2015: Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously

Another Enten article, this piece assures readers that while Trump is rising in the polls (he was second behind Jeb Bush at the time), that’s no reason to regard him as a new Republican frontrunner.

“In reality, the broad, shallow nature of Trump’s support suggests it’s due mostly to near-universal name recognition, thanks in part to being in the news more often than the news anchors,” he said.

3. July 20, 2015: Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll

Silver finally weighed in with this article, where he described Trump as a “troll” candidate, who was thriving simply by virtue of the tremendous attention he could receive by insulting everybody and not playing by the rules. Trolling, he suggested, had its political limits and would almost certainly deny Trump the nomination.

“Trump has taken trolling to the next level by being willing to offend members of his own party. Ordinarily, this would be a counterproductive strategy. In a 16-candidate field, however, you can be in first place with 15 or 20 percent of the vote — even if the other 80 or 85 percent of voters hate your guts.
“In the long run — as our experience with past trolls shows — Trump’s support will probably fade. Or at least, given his high unfavorable ratings, it will plateau, and other candidates will surpass him as the rest of the field consolidates.”


​

4. Aug. 6, 2015: Donald Trump’s Six Stages of Doom

This article likened Trump’s candidacy to a variety of other insurgent Republican campaigns in the past 20 years, from Pat Buchanan in 1996 to Herman Cain in 2012.

“The lesson … is that Trump’s campaign will fail by one means or another. Like Cain, Bachmann and Gingrich, Buchanan, Huckabee and Forbes came nowhere close to winning the Republican nomination,” Silver wrote. He pegged Trump’s odds of winning the nomination at 2 percent, and laid out the so-called “six stages of doom” for his campaign.

Trump would eventually be undone, Silver said, by the many roadblocks in his way. He could disappoint in Iowa or New Hampshire, hit a ceiling as the field shrank, botch delegate accumulation in caucus states, or encounter a concerted GOP effort to sabotage him at the convention. Ultimately, all of these factors influenced the race… and none of them were enough to halt the Trump train.

5. Aug. 11, 2015: Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls, And Losing The Nomination

With Trump’s poll support apparently only increasing with time, Silver sought to explain how Trump’s surge in the polls was actually coming at the expense of any chance he had of actually winning the nomination.

In Silver’s telling, Trump’s abrasive, attention-getting rhetoric was serving to make the primary a “referendum” on Trump, a referendum where 75 percent of Republicans were voting against him. Other GOP candidates had less support, but were at least viewed positively by the party. Once the field shrank, Silver said, one of them would almost certainly be able to crush Trump head to head.

“Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination,” Silver said. “It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so.”

6. Nov. 23, 2015: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

Three months later, Trump was still stubbornly refusing to fade away. So, Silver waded back into the fray to tell the news media to stop panicking, and to declare that betting market odds placing Trump’s chances of victory at 20 percent were “substantially too high.”

The key problems with believing in Trump, Silver said, were his persistently-high unfavorability even among Republicans, along with the fact that the vast majority of voters would only decide whom to support at the last minute. Those last-minute deciders, Silver suggested, could break against Trump in a big way.

“[C]ould Trump win?,” he asked. “We confront two stubborn facts: first, that nobody remotely like Trump has won a major-party nomination in the modern era. And second, as is always a problem in analysis of presidential campaigns, we don’t have all that many data points, so unprecedented events can occur with some regularity. For my money, that adds up to Trump’s chances being higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20 percent. Your mileage may vary.”

7. Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan

Silver was quick to pounce after Trump finished second to Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses.

“Trump underperformed his polls, which had him winning Iowa with 29 percent of the vote, while Cruz and Rubio outperformed theirs,” he wrote. “It’s not uncommon for the polls to be off in Iowa and other early-voting states, but the manner in which Trump underachieved is revealing. It turns out that few late-deciding voters went for him … Iowa voters made Trump appear to be much more of a factional candidate along the lines of [Pat] Buchanan, who received 23 percent of Iowa’s vote in 1996, than the juggernaut he’s been billed as.”Still, Trump’s sustained polling success was finally cracking even Silver’s resolve. Instead of being openly dismissive of Trump, he simply noted that Trump’s real strength would be revealed by how New Hampshire voted. We all know how that went. On Feb. 10, Silver finally anointed Trump as the GOP frontrunner.

Follow Blake on Twitter

Send tips to blake@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.

Content created by The Daily Caller News Foundation is available without charge to any eligible news publisher that can provide a large audience. For licensing opportunities of our original content, please contact licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.

Tags: Donald Trump, Elections 2016, FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7...ously-wrong-about-donald-trump/#ixzz4D4JkxoKK

bawawawawawawawawawawawawawwa

"it's simple math", except when it's not

 

[vitterd]

Silver hits 49 of 50 states in 2012

willie and Joe a combined 0fer a Lifetime here......and they mock him

 

[SheriffJoe]

bawawawawawawawawawawawawawwa

"it's simple math", except when it's not

Silver makes vtard-like predictions:

Brazil over Germany in the WC (Germany won 7-1!)

Simple math!

 

[Willie99]

Silver makes vtard-like predictions:

Brazil over Germany in the WC (Germany won 7-1!)

Simple math!

considering he's 0 for everything when it comes to Trump, I'm sure Donald is happy he keeps picking against him (it's like they can somehow ignore this, it doesn't matter to them face)(*^%)

"simple math"

LMFAO@ the fucking idiots

 

[vitterd]

Silver makes vtard-like predictions:

Brazil over Germany in the WC (Germany won 7-1!)

Simple math!

"Fred Thompson will be the next president of the United States"---Sheriff Joe

"that wasn't a prediction I was just rooting for him"face)(*^%