N. F. L. Vegas Ratings/Vegas Lines

[Bad_Cat]

Yeah, I know. He's starting another thread. Oh my gawd another thread started by Bad_Cat. Well, I posted a thread with my picks for this week and I am going to transfer those picks to this thread (My other thread was riddled with an argument and garbage posts by myself and someone else) and I will include why I am choosing each side.

When I handicap games based on statistics and other information it seems that it takes hours and the return for me is less than acceptable. I don't obviously post every game that I wager on but the fact still remains the books have the exact same stats as we do and a whole lot more than we have access too. What that tells me is we are trying to out smart the pro's at the books and good luck with that. I have studied point spreads on and off for a long time and when I have made plays in the past that compare ratings (Vegas Ratings) and point spreads I seem to have a lot more success.

Last week in the Wild Card round I posted a Vegas Rating thread and if you understood the content and made the correct play based on the Vegas Ratings as compared to the actual game line you would have won all 4 games. I'm not saying I was 4-0 last week and am not trying confuse anyone about a "Record" because I did have another stats thread in which I was 1-2, I'm just posting this to keep track of Vegas Ratings/point spread based plays.

It's very simple. Each week I have access to the Las Vegas NFL ratings for each team. The ratings are used to produce a generic starting point to formulate point spreads. What I do is use the updated weekly Vegas Ratings and I formulate a point spread, compare it to the actual line and then make a play.

I will post the divisional round picks again with an explanation for each pick momentarily.....

 

[Bad_Cat]

You may not agree with my info but it's fact as far as my ratings/point spreads are concerned.

Like I previously stated following this method was 4-0 last week.

Keep in mind the opening lines are not identical to what the books think it should open looking at black and white numbers. They open the line at the number they think us Joe blow's will make equal bets. When you know the difference and can use that info correctly you will be successful.


Saturday, 01/14/2017

Seattle +5 @ Atlanta
This line, based on the VR, should have opened at Atlanta -7. The Westgate opening number was Atlanta -4 1/2, thus the play is on the dog.

New England -15 vs Houston
The line, based on the VR, should have opened at New England -13. The Westgate opening number was New England -15 1/2, thus the play is on the fav.

Sunday, 01/15/2017
Pittsburgh +1 1/2 @ Kansas City
The line, based on the VR, should have opened at Kansas City -4. The Westgate opening number was Kansas City -1, thus the play is on the dog.

Green Bay +5 @ Dallas
The line, based on the VR, should have opened at Dallas -6. The Westgate opening number was Dallas -5, thus the play is on the dog.

 

[Bad_Cat]

FWIW, the largest differential between the VR and the Westgate opening lines are PITT/KC (3), followed by SEA/ATL (2.50) & HOU/NE (2.50) and finally GB/DALL (1).

 

[ReBornNJ]

Curious,...u ever look at where the pub $ is going? Imo lots of peeps will get burned by the Packers. Just my opinion. Believe me,...ive been wrong/crushed before.

 

[Bad_Cat]

Here is look ahead lines for next week's Championship games BASED ON THIS WEEK'S VEGAS RATINGS. Obviously after this week's game the ratings may change slightly but this is just to give you an idea the ballpark that the lines should open at.

Kansas City @ New England -6
Pittsburgh @ New England -7
Houston @ Pittsburgh -9
Houston @ Kansas City -10

Atlanta @ Dallas -2
Seattle @ Dallas -7
Green Bay @ Seattle -2
Green Bay @ Atlanta -6

Good luck this week!

 

[Bad_Cat]

Curious,...u ever look at where the pub $ is going? Imo lots of peeps will get burned by the Packers. Just my opinion. Believe me,...ive been wrong/crushed before.

Honestly, NO I don't. To be brutally honest and no disrespect to you but I don't really care what Joe does with his bets.

 

[ReBornNJ]

Hahahaha no disrespect taken. U just being honest. Loving the pitt play myself as well.

 

[Bad_Cat]

Hahahaha no disrespect taken. U just being honest. Loving the pitt play myself as well.

Yeah, I agree. I like Pitt (as long as big Ben is healthy) as the best play on the board slightly.

 

[ReBornNJ]

Couldn't agree more

 

[Bad_Cat]

And now with the time change, hopefully better weather with game being at night, I like them more.

 

[Bad_Cat]

I kinda like Seattle more now that Colin Cowherd's top play this week is Atlanta lol

 

[Bad_Cat]

3 out 4 or better OR bust. 2-2 or worse, not going to happen.

 

[Bad_Cat]

Game day line move on Atlanta. Good news for us with Seattle. The public drives the line on the day of the game so we know in this game the dirty birds are being backed by Joe public.

 

[Call_Me_Marquee]

Like I previously stated following this method was 4-0 last week.

UH, NO IT WASN'T.

YOU WENT 1-2 (33%) ON YOUR "OFFICIAL POSTED PLAYS" RIGHT HERE: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1075873

If your "ratings system" was "4-0", WHY WOULD BET AGAINST YOUR OWN SYSTEM? So you could brag after your actual picks LOST so that you had thus fake retard system to fall back on??

AND HOW ABOUT THIS:

In that SAME THREAD (http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1075873), he lists Atlanta -4 as an "Official Posted Play"... YET IN THIS THREAD, he's on Seahawks +5????

Why the fuck is he betting BOTH sides of the SAME GAME? You have Seahawks in this thread, and Falcons in another! How the FUCK is that allowed? You're making a fucking mockery of what us real handicappers do.

OH, AND WHAT ABOUT THIS!!!! This isn't even the first time he's tried playing BOTH sides of the same game!! In Week 14's Jaguars-Vikings game:

In this Week 14 thread titled "Week #14" (http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1073030&highlight=), he lists Minnesota -3 vs Jacksonville as an Official Play...

BUT IN THIS WEEK 14 THREAD titled "N.F.L." (http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1072625&highlight=), he lists Jacksonvilr +3.5 as an Official Play! WTF?


Betall, please stop letting him get away with this shit. He's ignoring you and STILL jumping into my threads (go look in my Wild Card thread; he doesn't stop the harassment), he's trying to ONCE AGAIN re-start his records (ignoring his 1-2 record on his "Official Posted Plays," yet says he went 4-0 with his system. So why was he betting AGAINST his system???), and for the SECOND TIME THIS SEASON, he's trying to list BOTH SIDES of the same game.. In different threads. Why is he allowed to continue to get away with this?

Oh, and for those that don't know (since he's constantly hiding his records and trying to re-start them with all this deceit), Bad_Cat's Official 2016-17 NFL Betting Record is 20-28-1 (41%) (source: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1076577)

 

[Bad_Cat]

Hey.....is the stalker coward who is to much of a puss to accept a challenge. It must suck to be fired as a tout because you lost peeps so much money.

Good luck with your 10 point teaser dummy.

 

[Bad_Cat]

You may not agree with my info but it's fact as far as my ratings/point spreads are concerned.

Like I previously stated following this method was 4-0 last week.

Keep in mind the opening lines are not identical to what the books think it should open looking at black and white numbers. They open the line at the number they think us Joe blow's will make equal bets. When you know the difference and can use that info correctly you will be successful.


Saturday, 01/14/2017

Seattle +5 @ Atlanta
This line, based on the VR, should have opened at Atlanta -7. The Westgate opening number was Atlanta -4 1/2, thus the play is on the dog.

New England -15 vs Houston
The line, based on the VR, should have opened at New England -13. The Westgate opening number was New England -15 1/2, thus the play is on the fav.

Sunday, 01/15/2017
Pittsburgh +1 1/2 @ Kansas City
The line, based on the VR, should have opened at Kansas City -4. The Westgate opening number was Kansas City -1, thus the play is on the dog.

Green Bay +5 @ Dallas
The line, based on the VR, should have opened at Dallas -6. The Westgate opening number was Dallas -5, thus the play is on the dog.

Adding another unit on Seattle +7, -120. So total of 2.30 to win 2.0 with the Hawks. This will offset my original wager on the Falcons.

 

[49erwildCat]

Never go back on your original wager! You will soon find out why

 

[Bad_Cat]

Never go back on your original wager! You will soon find out why

Lol GL with your Falcons today. I hope they win but they will not cover the line. If I ever need any help with sports wagering ill let you know, otherwise I don't.

 

[Bad_Cat]

Never go back on your original wager! You will soon find out why

How did you like that first Seattle drive lol. Total domination. You will find out soon why you lost the first game of the day.

 

[Bad_Cat]

If you bet Atlanta I would play a live bet on Seattle while you can for double the amount of your original wager.