NFL 2015: YTD: 19-15-1: (+19.00 units)
4 unit plays: 3-0 (+12 units)
3 unit plays: 2-1 (+2.7 units)
2 unit plays: 9-3-1 (+13.7 units)
1 unit plays: 5-11 (-.7.2 units)
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All plays are between 1-4 units. Price -110, unless otherwise stated. Sometimes I note the book/time etc… if there is a lot of line movement.
Ravens -2.5 (-125): 2 units
Lucky to win this won. A write-up is moot at this point!
Jets – 1.5 - 3 units
Welcome to London. My write-up on the Bills game will indicate that I am not sold on the Bills as much as many are (including bookmakers it seems). So when I watched the Dolphins look so inept on Sunday it was eye-opening. A major problem is coaching – Philbin can’t get the team to care about him. He was mic’d up for the Bills game and couldn’t even get his players to run off the field (despite him begging for it). His job is on the line but it sure doesn’t seem like his players want to save it for him. And to travel to London during all of this turmoil? The Dolphins look like a 5-11 team right now.
The Jets are a lot like the Bills, although they don’t get as much love from the books or the media. They have a comparable defense which should be a nightmare for Tannehill who looked lost last week. He will get his hard. I don’t love the Jets offense but I do think they have enough talent to win this game. I think their new coach has been excellent. Rex Ryan was not very attentive of the Jets offense (though excellent on defense) but the new coaching staff seem to play to their strengths. This is a major coaching advantage for the Jets and they seem like a team that is excited and motivated. The opposite is true for the Phins. Jets will easily, I suspect. They will score early and we will be up early.
Giants + 6.5 - 2 units (Bookmaker 9/28)
Every Sunday I try to guess the lines. The allows me to 1) see how well I can guess what bookmakers are thinking and 2) it allows me to see where my perception differs from the rest. When I did this game I thought it would be Bills -3.5 and a total of 44. So when I saw + 6 and 46 I was pretty excited. Bookmaker had this game at +6.5 and 47 so I pounced for 2 units each. I actually wish I had bet more because the value has gotten worse since then. If I want to add to this bet I will have to pay heavy juice or take a 5.5 and a 46 (still not a bad bet.) But for now: 2 units each. I am a strong believer in the Virtue of Betting Early.
The Bills have only beat 1 good team and it was Indy (who isn’t that good, really). The Giants have some problems but could easily be 0-3. As more film comes in on Tyrod Taylor I expect the G-men’s SB winning d-coordinator to make him struggle. The Bills offense is not very good. The total of this game is inflated because 1) the Bills got lots of points through defense. The Bills have only been in the red zone 6 times this year and while they have 5 TDs. That ratio won’t continue. The Bills are also prone to penalties which help make up for the Giants big weakness, which is horrendous time management. The Giants aren’t a great team. I don’t even know if they are a good team. But I think they are about as good as the Bills and could easily win this game.
Tyrod Taylor after 3 games is getting way too much credit. The Giants have had since a week ago Thursday to prepare for this game. The Bills value is inflated. The Giants value is maybe even a little deflated. I think the Giants can win outright, but I almost never play moneylines and will take the points for 2 units.
Giants/Bills Under 47- 2 units (Bookmaker 9/28)
My rationale for this is largely the same as it was for taking the Giants: I don’t think Tyrod Taylor and the Bills offense deserves the respect that the books and vegas are giving it. But I do respect their defense quite a bit. As I noted above I expect Steve Spagnuolo (who was with Taylor at B-more for a time) to handle him. The biggest risk here is Manning throws INTs which lead to Buffalo points. But that is why they call it gambling. I think we will see the Giants win by a score of 23-13 or so. Again I might like these games enough to bet 3 or 4 units (4 units is my max bet) but the value is lessened with the line movement and if that keeps up I may just stay put.
Jacksonville +10 (-115) – 1 unit (5 Dimes)
Honestly, I have been saying all week if this game ever gets to 10 I would take it. Jax is not as bad on defense as the NE would indicate. They were proving to be a sneaky-decent young defensive team until that game. And I am just incredibly down on the Colts right now. I know they put up 33 against the Titans by they still haven’t looked good in a single game they have played. I lean UNDER here as well, but haven’t played it.
Minnesota + 7 - 2 units
Like my case against the Bills, I don’t trust the Broncos offense. I do love their defense but overall the team has benefited greatly on its road to 3-0: the Chiefs squandered one game away, the Broncos looked terrible vs the Ravens and Detroit (who I wrongly bet on) has clearly checked out and will likely be looking for a new coach this off-season. Of course, the Broncos are not only 3-0 but they are also 3-0 ATS, so respect where respect is due. But the Vikings are now playing excellent after a week 1 s**t-show. They have a chance to win this game outright and now that the line is at a TD (as of Friday afternoon) I feel it is the best value pick. That said, if the Broncos win and cover we might just have to start giving them their due.
ARI/STL O 42.5 1 unit
Arizona games have gone over (by a lot in some cases) all 3 times. STL games have gone under twice, but STL scored more than 30 vs Seattle so it is not as if they can’t score. But this is really just my feeling that Arizona should be able to do most of the leg work here. That said, I am not taking Ari – the points. Almost 80 percent of the public is on it and I tend to avoid (not always) plays like this. I could see a sneaky STL cover, but not enough to bet it. I will take the Over.
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