My Underdogchance Projected NHL Lines 2015/2016

[Underdogchance]

I am new on forum, so before I start, I will say Hello to everyone.
I like statistics and sports, especially NHL and MLB and I want to share my projected lines with you.

1. My math model contain:
*overall & current form
*goalie performance (for this line, goalie must be the same as listed below, if not, line will change)
*Offensive strength (shots, efficiency & team skill, goals)
*Defensive strength (shots against, goals against, blocked shots)

2. My math model doesn't contain:
*injuries

3. I don't follow my math model blindly, because I still believe, the best handicappers will use a lot of informations and a lot of factors when selecting the right bet. I use it as most important tool and it shows me starting raw probabilities. I hope you will like it and I hope you can use some useful informations.

It is possible, that I will not post projected lines every day, because I have full time job + family and sometimes simply can not find the time for it, but will try to post lines as much as possible.

I will use one topic for my projected lines until the end of the season.
I will also have baseball projected lines for upcoming MLB season.

TUESDAY - 8/3/2016

NY Rangers +110 47.69% Antti Raanta
Buffalo -110 52.30% Robin Lehner


Ottawa +164 37.85% Andrew Hammond
Carolina -164 62.09% Cam Ward


Detroit +103 49.36% Jimmy Howard
Columbus -103 50.63% Joonas Korpisalo

Pittsburgh -105 51.19% Marc-Andre Fleury
NY Islanders +105 48.78% Jaroslav Halak


Dallas -106 51.35% Antti Niemi
Montreal +106 48.62% Mike Condon


Boston +171 36.96% Tuukka Rask
Tampa Bay -171 62.97% Ben Bishop


Nashville -103 50.71% Pekka Rinne
Winnipeg +103 49.27% Ondrej Pavelec


San Jose -154 60.63% Martin Jones
Edmonton +154 39.35% Cam Talbot

 

[cloverleaf]

Welcome to the forum Dawg.........

Win with your system and you will have a good following here.

Best of luck ole chap!

 

[Underdogchance]

WEDNESDAY - 9/3/2016

NY Islanders -152 60.25% Thomas Greiss
Toronto +152 39.74% Garret Sparks

Chicago +103 49.38% Corey Crawford
St Louis -103 50.60% Jake Allen


Nashville -109 52.13% Pekka Rinne
Calgary +109 47.84% Joni Ortio


Anaheim -210 67.68% John Gibson
Colorado +210 32.26% Semyon Varlamov


Arizona -101 50.17% Louis Domingue
Vancouver +101 49.82% Ryan Miller


Washington +127 43.99% Braden Holtby
Los Angeles -127 55.99% Jonathan Quick

---------------------------

My math model contain:
*overall & current form
*goalie performance (for this line, goalie must be the same as listed below, if not, line will change)
*Offensive strength (shots, efficiency & team skill, goals)
*Defensive strength (shots against, goals against, blocked shots)

My math model doesn't contain:
*injuries

Good Luck to all!
------------

 

[Underdogchance]

Welcome to the forum Dawg.........

Win with your system and you will have a good following here.

Best of luck ole chap!

Thanks for your comment :toast:. In the first place I want to share my projected lines, because I think this is something that most bettors don't have. I think there is a lot of picks on the net, but there is not much information like this.
I also recommend, that you use my numbers wisely. Those are just starting raw lines and we have to put couple of other information inside our analysis to make final bets.

Best of luck whatever you take.

 

[BigHurt007]

And what exactly is this information besides a Euro with three posts throwing out lines?
How is this helpful in any way?

 

[VegasVic]

He's sharing his lines. Just compare the actual numbers for his leans.
Good luck underdog

 

[VegasVic]

Agree on your number with Nashville/calgary. Lots to like about the Flames tonight

 

[Underdogchance]

THURSDAY - 10/3/2016

Carolina +110 47.73% Cam Ward
Boston -110 52.24% Tuukka Rask


Buffalo +112 47.08% Robin Lehner
Montreal -112 52.90% Mike Condon


Winnipeg +133 42.96% Ondrej Pavelec
Detroit -133 57.03% Jimmy Howard

Ottawa +148 40.37% Andrew Hammond
Florida -148 59.60% Roberto Luongo


Edmonton +163 37.98% Cam Talbot
Minnesota -163 62.00% Devan Dubnyk

New Jersey +254 28.28% Keith Kinkaid
San Jose -254 71.69% Martin Jones

-----------
My math model contain:
*overall & current form
*goalie performance (for this line, goalie must be the same as listed above, if not, line will change)
*Offensive strength (shots, efficiency & team skill, goals)
*Defensive strength (shots against, goals against, blocked shots)

My math model doesn't contain:
*injuries

Good Luck to all!
------------

I also like two plays today:

Buffalo +144 (Pinnacle)
Montreal Canadiens had a good first half of the season. In fact they were good with Price and then couple of first games with Condon. After that, they are struggling and if we take the stats after new year (2016 only), they are #29 team in the league by wins and points. Buffalo is in the same time #20 by wins and #19 by points. I like somehow Buffalo, they are still below average team, but there is something I like. They have good goalie - Lehner has outstanding year with 0.927 SV% and they are playing good defence (on the road even better). My line is around +112 on Buffalo, so if I have to play something without any additional information, i would take Buffalo anyway. But why I like Buffalo even more here is that they will face Montreal team, who is influenced by injuries. Desharnais, Gallagher, Price, Eller, Beaulieu, Petry, Gilbert, Carr, Flynn. Those are all injured players for Montreal and I think they know, that their season is over. With Buffalo +144 i think we have a nice value here. Right now with all those injuries in Montreal, they are simply better team.
Minnesota (-1.5) +166 (Pinnacle)
Wild need points, they are 2 points behind Colorado, who holds last wild card spot, but Wild also have 2 games less. In those two games they have to make some points and today is the last game at home, before they will go on the road. They are much better at home and I believe they will be highly motivated against the last team in NHL and they know, this is the game, where they must win points. Minnesota beat Edmonton on the road by 5-2 (18.2.2016) and I think they are playing better right now. In last 5 games, they are 4-1 with 3.2 goals per game and only 2.2 against.

Good luck to all!

 

[Underdogchance]

And what exactly is this information besides a Euro with three posts throwing out lines?
How is this helpful in any way?

Good question and I will try to explain it. A lot of people don't understand the concept of whole thing, so I will try to explain on simple way also for someone who is new in sports betting.

When Team A plays against Team B, if we take an example in NHL, is one event with couple of possible outcomes (A wins, B wins, tie, SO, terrorist attack...whatever you like). But let's make an example for moneyline with two possible outcomes (Team A wins, team B wins). My question is what is the chance that Team A will win and what is the question that Team B will win. When we bet on moneyline, there are only two outcomes (Team A wins, Team B wins). Some people will say, that the question should be, who will win? But this is wrong. In such a events, any team can win, the only difference are the chances of one team to win a game and chances of another team.


So, I want to know what are the "chance" or probability, that team A will win. And what is the chance or probability, that team B will win. In this case we have two possible outcomes:
1. Team A wins
2. Team B wins


Nothing else. At the end of the day in NHL, we will have a winner. Right? So, sum of probabilities is 100%. For example, Team A has a 60% and team B has 40%, sum is 100%. Thats all. And my math model shows me what are those probabilities, nothing more, nothing less.


Let's go further...


Those probabilities have some price, value or whatever you call it. If I want to bet on a team, which has 50% of chance, the fair price (if we convert probabilities into odds or lines) is 2.00 (european odds) and +100 (american odds). This means, that the other probability (in this case), for other team is also 50% and the same odds. This also mean, that if you put $100 on one team and at the same time on other team. You will not lose any money and you will not win any money. Right? ($100 on Team A +100, $100 on team B at the same time, profit/loss=0).


However, the bookmakers have to live somehow, so they "invented" margins. And you will have for 50%-50% game odds of -110 vs -110. So, you have to put $10 more for $100 of profit. There are bookmakers who will have bigger margins and also bookmakers, who will have lower margins. Some bookmakers will offer you -105 vs -105 for example. But this is not that important right now.


The important question for me is what is the price for my event. What they give me, what they offer me? No matter what margin bookmakers have. If my math model shows, that Team A has a 50% chance to win a game, I would make this line at +100 (or 2.00 eu odds). This is something what I would expect. This is the true reflection (for me and my math model) what true odds should be. Or if you want i want to know, what is the price for my probability of this game.


If bookmakers give me +130, that team A will win (in our example), this mean, that I will get +$30 more, than what I would expect. And this is good.

So...
1. My math model shows me probabilities.
2. One game is an event and "something" will happen at the end. Sum of everything at the end is 100%.
3. There are only 2 possible outcomes (in this example). Probability (Team A wins) + Probability (Team B wins) = 100%.
4. I convert those probabilities into odds/lines
5. When I have my own lines, I see the price, which I (at least) expect from bookmaker
6. I try to bet on a team (outcome of an event), where someone (bookmaker) will pay me more, than I would expect from my calculated probabilities.
7. I don't follow my math model blindly, because I know, it is still not perfect. I also belive, that the best handicappers in the world will combine all kind of informations inlcuding math models, injuries, trends, psychological factors,...My math model is the heart of my betting analysis, but for the final picks, I include all kind of other factors. Sometimes I go against my odds to.

I hope I answered on your question.

 

[VegasVic]

I took Buffalo at +145 yesterday. Play of the day imo.

 

[indiana]

U/dog..........welcome to the RX forum, sure you will enjoy........many good cappers (NHL)..........BOL with all your action..........indy

 

[boss415]

And what exactly is this information besides a Euro with three posts throwing out lines?
How is this helpful in any way?

just play your faves and overs and please post

 

[Underdogchance]

@VegasVic
Thanks for your comment. Appreciate it. I think Buffalo was the right play, no matter what was the outcome of the game.

@indiana
Thanks. I was not involved in sports betting communities last 3 years. Before that I was active on forums, portals and even lived from sports betting (for 4 years) since 2005. After 3 years inactivity (married, get daughter, after I lost my bankroll I found full time job with no time left for betting) I am going back slowly. In last year I created two math models (this is my passion, analyzing data + predicting the games) for NHL and MLB. I am testing it now. I had to include some other factors, such a B2B games and injuries. I am also learning programming, so in the future I want to import numbers automaticly (I am using excell now)... I am not consistent with picks, so I don't post them, because i still have full time job (plan to quit job in may 2016) and I post sometimes plays for my friends on snapchat in lad minutes...But in 2017 I am planning to post plays more often. Until then I will try to improve my math model....I'll check other players too... What i have learned in those years is that, nobody is too smart and even the stupidest comment is something that you can learn something from it.

 

[Underdogchance]

FRIDAY - 11/3/2016


Pittsburgh -169 62.76% Marc-Andre Fleury
Columbus +169 37.18% Sergei Bobrovsky




Philadelphia +131 43.21% Steve Mason
Tampa Bay -131 56.76% Ben Bishop




Anaheim -146 59.29% John Gibson
St Louis +146 40.68% Jake Allen



Chicago +124 44.63% Corey Crawford
Dallas -124 55.33% Antti Niemi




Arizona +120 45.39% Louis Domingue
Calgary -120 54.57% Jonas Hiller


Good Luck to all!

 

[Underdogchance]

SATURDAY - 12/3/2016

NY Islanders -129 56.35% Thomas Greiss
Boston +129 43.59% Tuukka Rask

Carolina +101 49.66% Cam Ward
Buffalo -101 50.32% Robin Lehner

NY Rangers +130 43.39% Henrik Lundqvist
Detroit -130 56.60% Petr Mrazek


Colorado +147 40.43% Semyon Varlamov
Winnipeg -147 59.55% Ondrej Pavelec

Philadelphia +131 43.27% Steve Mason
Florida -131 56.71% Roberto Luongo


Toronto +123 44.85% Garret Sparks
Ottawa -123 55.12% Craig Anderson


Minnesota -113 53.09% Darcy Kuemper
Montreal +113 46.90% Mike Condon


St Louis +137 42.24% Jake Allen
Dallas -137 57.73% Antti Niemi


Arizona +133 42.87% Louis Domingue
Edmonton -133 57.12% Cam Talbot


Nashville -147 59.43% Pekka Rinne
Vancouver +147 40.54% Ryan Miller


New Jersey +252 28.38% Keith Kinkaid
Los Angeles -252 71.59% Jonathan Quick


Washington +128 43.78% Braden Holtby
San Jose -128 56.20% Martin Jones

Good Luck to all!

 

[Underdogchance]

SUNDAY - 13/3/2016
Pittsburgh -138 57.94% Marc-Andre Fleury
NY Rangers +138 42.04% Henrik Lundqvist


Tampa Bay -124 55.32% Ben Bishop
Columbus +124 44.65% Sergei Bobrovsky


Toronto +203 32.95% Garret Sparks
Detroit -203 67.02% Petr Mrazek

Good Luck to all!

 

[VegasVic]

I know you don’t factor in injuries, (no Malkin), but really surprised to see your numbers on the Pitt/NYR game. Pens may offer plenty of value, (regardless of Malkin’s absence), due to Raanta in net, Rangers playing b2b, and large playoff implications of this matchup.

gl on all

 

[VegasVic]

He, (Malkin), missed 10 consecutive games last month, during which time the Penguins went 5-4-1. Their all-time record when he has been injured is 70-45-9.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/...Sunday-because-of-injury/stories/201603120120

 

[Underdogchance]

He, (Malkin), missed 10 consecutive games last month, during which time the Penguins went 5-4-1. Their all-time record when he has been injured is 70-45-9.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/...Sunday-because-of-injury/stories/201603120120

Thanks for your comment.

I am still working on injuries, but I included B2B factor. I am also testing kelly criterium for picks last couple of days (took 1000 units, will probably reduce risk unit into half)

Date	Pick (Moneyline)	EU odds	Risk	Possible Profit	Actual Profit
11.3.2016	Pittsburgh	1.666	66	43.956	43.956	46.356
	Philadelphia	2.52	60	91.2	91.2
	Anaheim	2.02	210	214.2	-210
	Dallas	2.05	144	151.2	151.2
	Calgary	1.751	30	22.53	-30
12.3.2016	NY Islanders +106	2.06	150	159	-150	131.55
	Detroit +110	2.1	170	187	187
	Winnipeg -109	1.917	150	137.55	137.55
	Toronto +153	2.53	90	137.7	-90
	Dallas -124	1.806	50	40.3	-50
	San Jose -103	1.97	100	97	97
13.3.2016	Pittsburgh	2.2	200	240	240	240
14.3.2016	Los Angeles +107	2.07	100	107		0
	Calgary +144	2.44	100	144
	Winnipeg +106	2.06	50	53

Total Profit	417.906
Yield	29.43%
AVG odds	2.077333333
W	7
L	5

And we will see how it works....

About Malkin....
He is very good offensive player, no doubt, but i don't like him as a player, because he is weak in defence. And when you play against strong teams, like Rangers, you need good defensive players too. But this has nothing to do with math side of the game. He was out and according to the numbers, he is very important player for Penguins and when they play without him, they are weaker. But as you said, NY Rangers were on B2B game. Past data shows, that teams in avg has higher % of losses in b2b games, no matter how good they are. With backup goalie, Pittsburgh was even better pick IMO. With Lundqvist in and Malkin in and B2B factor included, Pittsburgh were -138 favourite for me. When we take away Lundqvist and Malkin, Pittsburgh should be still small favourite and with plus money I think Pittsburgh was right play.

MONDAY - 14/3/2016

Florida +127 44.04% Roberto Luongo
NY Islanders -127 55.94% Thomas Greiss


Los Angeles -116 53.66% Jonathan Quick
Chicago +116 46.32% Corey Crawford


St Louis -113 53.11% Jake Allen
Calgary +113 46.85% Jonas Hiller


Nashville -128 56.20% Pekka Rinne
Edmonton +128 43.78% Cam Talbot


Winnipeg -105 51.20% Ondrej Pavelec
Vancouver +105 48.79% Ryan Miller


New Jersey +256 28.12% Keith Kinkaid
Anaheim -256 71.85% John Gibson

Good Luck to all!

 

[Underdogchance]

TUESDAY - 15/3/2016

NY Islanders +148 40.40% Thomas Greiss
Pittsburgh -148 59.57% Marc-Andre Fleury


Carolina +147 40.55% Cam Ward
Washington -147 59.42% Braden Holtby

Detroit +118 45.89% Petr Mrazek
Philadelphia -118 54.10% Steve Mason


Tampa Bay -149 59.88% Ben Bishop
Toronto +149 40.10% Garret Sparks

Florida -112 52.80% Al Montoya
Montreal +112 47.18% Mike Condon


Minnesota -101 50.14% Devan Dubnyk
Ottawa +101 49.84% Craig Anderson


Los Angeles -105 51.09% Jonathan Quick
Dallas +105 48.89% Antti Niemi


Boston +182 35.48% Tuukka Rask
San Jose -182 64.45% James Reimer

-------------
Note: B2B factor included!
Note: Some goalies may change before the start of the game and the lines change if that happens. I usually don't have time later to correct and post new lines here.
----------------
Plays (odds from pinnacle and 5Dimes):
------------

Date	Pick (Moneyline)	odds	Risk	Possible Profit	Actual Profit
11.3.2016	Pittsburgh	1.666	66	43.956	43.956	46.356
	Philadelphia	2.52	60	91.2	91.2
	Anaheim	2.02	210	214.2	-210
	Dallas	2.05	144	151.2	151.2
	Calgary	1.751	30	22.53	-30
12.3.2016	NY Islanders +106	2.06	150	159	-150	131.55
	Detroit +110	2.1	170	187	187
	Winnipeg -109	1.917	150	137.55	137.55
	Toronto +153	2.53	90	137.7	-90
	Dallas -124	1.806	50	40.3	-50
	San Jose -103	1.97	100	97	97
13.3.2016	Pittsburgh +120	2.2	200	240	240	240
14.3.2016	Los Angeles +107	2.07	100	107	107	304
	Calgary +144	2.44	100	144	144
	Winnipeg +106	2.06	50	53	53
15.3.2016	Carolina +199	2.99	100	199		0
	Los Angeles +120	2.2	100	120
	Ottawa +112	2.12	50	56
	Florida +100	2	50	50
	San Jose -135	1.74	160	118.4

Play of the Day:

San Jose Sharks -135