My totally new approach to betting MLB games

[Biggamer3]

Tell me if i am crazy

I have been thinking for a while that any baseball game i bet whether it be a dog or a favorite i should put at -1.5 runs.
If you are betting a Dog you would use a book that allows an alt runline.

In my research over the last week of games, i see that the winning teams have won 78 of the 94 games played by at least two runs.

I am no numbers guy, would it be wise to only bet -1.5 lines in the long run?

Is this 80+% a fluke or has it been like this for years of being over 2 runs.

 

[Biggamer3]

For example yesterday i like the Dodgers and they were +122, with the Alt line they were at around +170

 

[MikeB]

I've been thinking about this myself for some time now also. History shows that about 20% of games are decided by one run. If you were hitting at a clip of about 50%, then this should affect you over the long run about 10% of the time.


Interesting.

 

[TheWolf]

IMO I dont think you should ever lay runs.

 

[5teamparlay]

You may also want to go deeper with this and research HOME / AWAY %.

Tough to lay -1.5 with the home team although 2 run walk offs do happen. I like the +1.5 with road teams, but I assume that is factored into the line as well.

 

[bookie]

As a whole, when an MLB team wins they will do so by more than 1 run 72.22% of the time.

 

[ToddInVegas]

1 run games happen about 28% of the time. Blindly betting these will be a loser in the end

 

[Doug]

I could see doing it with good lines ( like Matchbook), but not at standard books. Matchbook has alternate lines now, not sure if it will get good action or not.

 

[ToddInVegas]

Didnt read your post Bookie, mine kind of looks redundant now hno:

 

[bigtendominator]

Teams play an average of 40 1 runs game a season. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but the lowest number of 1 run games last season was 31 or something and the highest I believe was 49.

You are probably best served taking a team on the ALT RL, as most team win 70% of their games by more than 1 run.

 

[5teamparlay]

May want to research on an individual team basis as well. When the TIGERS really sucked (Maroth, Bonderman etc.) they had a run of like over 20 losses that were by more than 1 run.

THE CUBS LAST 18 wins have been by more than 1 run. Just checking blindly as per game today.

 

[bookie]

Surprisingly or not, road teams have a greater percentage to win by more than the home team. Home teams that win will do so by more than 1 run 68.53% of the time, while away teams that win will do so by more than 1 run 76.51% of the time.

Reason being, first, home teams that are winning after the top of the 9th inning will not bat in the bottom half of the 9th. Second, the game will end if the home team scores the winning run in the bottom half of the 9th or greater inning.

 

[silver7]

I Have No Prob. Playing RL Or ARL, And Yes

the home/rd edge is facored in. What's killed me @ least 5 or 6 times this yr is the meaningless 1 R scored in the 9the by the tm down 2. They lose anyway but screw the RL up.

 

[Mistermj]

Surprisingly or not, road teams have a greater percentage to win by more than the home team. Home teams that win will do so by more than 1 run 68.53% of the time, while away teams that win will do so by more than 1 run 76.51% of the time.

Reason being, first, home teams that are winning after the top of the 9th inning will not bat in the bottom half of the 9th. Second, the game will end if the home team scores the winning run in the bottom half of the 9th or greater inning.

Right. So if there is a sweetspot...it is most likely to be found with away teams on the RL.

Thats what I'm trying to find with my RL Chase system.

 

[krk1030]

I wont do RL on the home team.

It's surprising the number of extra inning games decided by more than 1 run.

 

[HansGruber]

Maybe filter out teams with good pitching and weak offenses like Oakland. Cubbies would be the ideal team to play using this system: strong pitching and strong offense. You lose the juicy lines by playing the big name starters like Harden/Zambrano though. I bet a great PEN and good offense is where the real value can be had.

Somebody tried an alt rl chase system last year or two year ago. It was going great for a while and then it flamed out pretty spectacularly as I recall.
Anybody remember who did this?

 

[bookie]

Yes Cubs are the best this year on the RL with 54 wins.
LAA-49
TB-48
CWS-48


Teams to bet against are:

Cincy, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Washington, Seattle and Cleveland.

 

[LogansRun]

I didn't break it down by home fav, dog, vis fav, dog, AL, NL, IL, total or any other filter but these are just the raw figures for games from 2001 to July 24th 2008 (18754 games) and

Vis covers RL 6588 times (35%)
Home covers RL 6975 times (37%)

 

[Mistermj]

Here is an interesting RL analysis.

http://baseballsystem.blogspot.com/2008/06/rl-analysis.html

 

[Biggamer3]

Here is an interesting RL analysis.

http://baseballsystem.blogspot.com/2008/06/rl-analysis.html

some good info there, thanks