My Top 10 ATS Teams Of 2009

[GoSooners]

Now that Phil Steele has released his magazine I can officially put in what I think will be the top ATS teams of 2009. Since Steele is the bible of millions of football fans, he actually contributes to the hype of many of these teams. There's nothing wrong with that. But when it comes to betting on teams to beat the spread, in most cases, the least amount preseason hype the better. Last season was a great example. Out of the around 20 teams in the country who went 8 wins or more ATS, only three got the preaseason accolades from Steele and went on to beat the spreads. They were OU, Florida and Bowling Green. Even though BG didn't win their conference, they did cover 8 games. Which is kind of a rare combination for a hyped team who didn't suceed in winning their conference. The rest of the teams on the list didn't get near the hype. Here is an example of what I'm talking about from the 2008 season. But this could be from any season:

Alabama (9 wins ATS) Picked 3rd by Steele in their division
Ball St. (8 wins ATS) Picked 3rd in their division
Baylor (8 wins ATS) Picked last in their division
Buffalo (8 wins ATS) Picked 4th in their division
Ga Tech (8 wins ATS) Picked 4th in their division
Ole Miss (8 wins ATS) Picked 4th in their division
NCST (9 wins ATS) Picked to finish last in their division
Okie St. (9 wins ATS) Picked to finish 4th in their division
Oregon St. (8 wins ATS) Picked to finish 6th in the Pac-10
Rice (8 wins ATS) Picked to finish 5th in their division
Rutgers (9 wins ATS) Picked to finish 4th in their division
Texas (9 wins ATS) Picked to finish 3rd in their division
TCU (9 wins ATS) Picked to finish 3rd in their division

So you get an idea of where I'm coming from. Your real moneymaking teams are the ones with the lower expectations. With just a few exceptions thrown in. Here are my top 10 teams who I think will get to at least 8 wins ATS this season:

1.LSU-Picked by Steele to finish 3rd in their division
2.Kansas-Picked to finish 4th in their division
3.Stanford-Picked to finish 5th in their conference
4.Air Force-Picked to finish 4th in their conference. Got to 7 wins ATS last season with just 8 returning starters! A very steady program and great running dogs team.
5.North Carolina-Picked to finish 4th in their divsion
6.Notre Dame-Rated 7 by Steele. Seven home games and one neutral site game vs WSU gives this expereienced team a great chance to reach the 8 wins or more mark ATS.
7.Ohio State-Picked to finish 2nd by Steele. The first time in a while that OSU hasn't been given top conference honors. This has to feel like a slap in the face to this team. 7 home games and one neutral site game this season. This team is almost always up around the 7 to 9 wins ATS mark almost every year. Last year they went 6-6 ATS. I expect better this year without all of the usual Buckeye hype.
8.Georgia-Much like OSU, they got all of the preseason hype last year when they were rated number one going into the season. Not so much this year. Picked to finish 2nd in their division. But with a team who could be better than last season.
9.Boise St.-Picked to finish first. I believe this will be one of those exceptions to the rule. Like OSU, Boise is usually up there in the 8 wins ATS range almost every season. A very consistent team, they went 7 wins ATS last season with a very young offense and a new QB. I expect even more improvement this year.
10.La Tech-Picked to finish 4th in their conference. This team will have two good lines on both sides of the ball, which is a big plus with me. Plus 16 starters back off of a 7-5 team who went 5-6 ATS last season. A natural improvement under a good coach will elevate this team to 8 wins or more ATS this season.

 

[STACKSONDECK]

as long as ohio state doesnt have any spreads over a double digits. seems like they never covered those last year. like your nc pick

 

[GoSooners]

as long as ohio state doesnt have any spreads over a double digits. seems like they never covered those last year. like your nc pick

With OSU it is all about the hype. They had 19 starters returning last season off of a team who went to the BCS title game. So expectations were much higher than what they will be this year. I don't think we'll see nearly as many outrageous lines with OSU as we did last season.

 

[russ1945]

Gs

In no particular order I think the following teams also will be successful ATS in 2009.

Illinois
Miami fl
Arizona
Pitt
TCU
S. Miss
Troy
Cal
Neb
Auburn

I like your list and who knows how they will be setting lines this year. If Kansas can muster any kind of defense at all they could be dangerous ATS. I think the middle of the packs in almost every conference will be in dog fights week after week. Stanford, Arizona, Oregon, and Oregon St in the Pac 10 and Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa are all capabale teams any of whom could pull one out of the hat against a higher rated team on a given Saturday.

 

[GoSooners]

In no particular order I think the following teams also will be successful ATS in 2009.

Illinois
Miami fl
Arizona
Pitt
TCU
S. Miss
Troy
Cal
Neb
Auburn

I like your list and who knows how they will be setting lines this year. If Kansas can muster any kind of defense at all they could be dangerous ATS. I think the middle of the packs in almost every conference will be in dog fights week after week. Stanford, Arizona, Oregon, and Oregon St in the Pac 10 and Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa are all capabale teams any of whom could pull one out of the hat against a higher rated team on a given Saturday.

Russ...A few of the teams you mentioned are on my secondary top 20 list. Auburn, Southern Miss I'm pretty high on. Teams who went 8 or more wins ATS last season are automatic thowouts for me. That would be Cal and TCU. It doesn't mean they won't cover again. But teams just don't have a good record of repeating good ATS winning seasons. I didn't put Pitt and Illinois in there because I don't trust their coaches. Not that I trust Weis that much either. But he has so much experience and VHT players returning this year, that i don't think THAT much coaching will be required. The leadershup will already be there. Much like with Missouri winning last season despite Pinkel. A few other teams who are on my secondary list are Oregon, Akron, Toledo, Michigan St. Minnesota, Colorado. One of the requirments for a team to make my list is a team will have to have at least 6 straight up wins for the season. If any team plays two division 2 opponents I also automatically throw them out since it just leaves them with 10 games to get 8 wins ATS.

 

[SoonerBS]

GS, those are some great choices! Thanks for your thoughts . . . .

 

[FairWarning]

Do you think Notre Dame will have the running game required to cover big numbers? They will be laying 2+ scores in a few of those games.

 

[ChrisParadise]

wow - i actually agree
if you play all 10 of those teams blindly ATS you will make money this year

Boise is the only one of 10 i dont much like

 

[GoSooners]

Do you think Notre Dame will have the running game required to cover big numbers? They will be laying 2+ scores in a few of those games.

You do have a valid point. The running game is one of my top considerations that go into figuring these teams. For instance Texas Tech wins on average about 9 games SU every year, but never can seem to win over 6 games ATS. Mainly because they never have a clock chewing running game. In Notre Dame's case, they averaged only 113 ypg rushing last season. They'll have to improve on those numbers to get to 8 wins.. But I'm taking Phil Steel's word for it that this team will be improved in the rushing department with their best RB production than in the last 5 years. Plus a veteran offensive line of upperclassmen with 8 of their 10 deep back this year.

 

[GoSooners]

wow - i actually agree
if you play all 10 of those teams blindly ATS you will make money this year

And just as important with me is if I think a team will get to 8 wins or more against the spread, it means they're only going to lose 4 games or less ATS this season. So if you bet against any of these teams it means your odds of winning your play are only about 33% or less. So you really have to pick your spots if you dare bet against any of these teams.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

In no particular order I think the following teams also will be successful ATS in 2009.

Illinois
Miami fl
Arizona
Pitt
TCU
S. Miss
Troy
Cal
Neb
Auburn

I like your list and who knows how they will be setting lines this year. If Kansas can muster any kind of defense at all they could be dangerous ATS. I think the middle of the packs in almost every conference will be in dog fights week after week. Stanford, Arizona, Oregon, and Oregon St in the Pac 10 and Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa are all capabale teams any of whom could pull one out of the hat against a higher rated team on a given Saturday.

Russ, be mindful of Illinois's questionable defense. They weren't very good on D last year and they lost their top lock down corner (vontea davis), their leader and best play maker on D (MLB Britt Miller), 3 sack specialists on the d-line (david linquest, will davis, and derek walker), and 2 other d-linemen who were booted from the team. They won't have another starter (Josh Brent) for the 1st 2 games. Their LB's have very little experience, corners should be good, but safety is another area of concern.

This defense did not create TO's and got torched over the middle last year. They were a major reason Illinois underachieved last year along with special teams and coaching.

Things could still come together with all their talent on D and if they do, they will obviously do very well ATS, but keep a close eye on them because they could be a great OVER team early on.

I like the Miami call, I think their defense will finally be ready to step up now that they have some experience.

 

[GoSooners]

Russ, be mindful of Illinois's questionable defense. They weren't very good on D last year and they lost their top lock down corner (vontea davis), their leader and best play maker on D (MLB Britt Miller), 3 sack specialists on the d-line (david linquest, will davis, and derek walker), and 2 other d-linemen who were booted from the team. They won't have another starter (Josh Brent) for the 1st 2 games. Their LB's have very little experience, corners should be good, but safety is another area of concern.

This defense did not create TO's and got torched over the middle last year. They were a major reason Illinois underachieved last year along with special teams and coaching.

Things could still come together with all their talent on D and if they do, they will obviously do very well ATS, but keep a close eye on them because they could be a great OVER team early on.

I also haven't been sold on the Illinois running game since Mendenhall left early for the NFL in 2007. They'll have to show me something more there before I can call them a good ATS team. Then there is the Zook factor, which could also cost them another couple of covers just by himself.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Personally, I don't think Mendenhall leaving hurt this team as much as everyone else. The Illini had capable running backs last year but the O-line took a step back. They were also behind in so many games the coaches abandoned the run in a lot of games. Most of the time it was too early. This team had so many problems last year with TO's, poor blocking, bad ST play, and a defense that couldn't do anything productive, it's hard to tell if Mendenhall staying would have made a difference.

Regardless, the running backs will be strong this year. There are four really good runnning backs not counting Juice Williams. Hopefully Shultz knows how to establish the run.

 

[GoSooners]

Personally, I don't think Mendenhall leaving hurt this team as much as everyone else. The Illini had capable running backs last year but the O-line took a step back. They were also behind in so many games the coaches abandoned the run in a lot of games. Most of the time it was too early. This team had so many problems last year with TO's, poor blocking, bad ST play, and a defense that couldn't do anything productive, it's hard to tell if Mendenhall staying would have made a difference.

Regardless, the running backs will be strong this year. There are four really good runnning backs not counting Juice Williams. Hopefully Shultz knows how to establish the run.

I think most of a team's rushing success is on the offensive line's shoulders. If their line comes through for them they'll be alright. I was surprised when Steele said they only had 1 VHT player in their starting five. Kind of unusual for a BCS team who played in the Rose Bowl two years ago. I'm still very leery of Zook. Illinois abondoning the run in their games, turnovers, poor tackling and bad special teams play can all be blamed to a certain extent on bad coaching.

 

[russ1945]

Tootight

Personally, I don't think Mendenhall leaving hurt this team as much as everyone else. The Illini had capable running backs last year but the O-line took a step back. They were also behind in so many games the coaches abandoned the run in a lot of games. Most of the time it was too early. This team had so many problems last year with TO's, poor blocking, bad ST play, and a defense that couldn't do anything productive, it's hard to tell if Mendenhall staying would have made a difference.

Regardless, the running backs will be strong this year. There are four really good runnning backs not counting Juice Williams. Hopefully Shultz knows how to establish the run.

I have big time questions about their defense but I think Shultz's contributions may mean they can play a little more ball control type game.
I keep thinking about Juice's record when he throws thirty or less passes then I start thinking about those WR's. You make a great point about betting the overs in some of their games. Special teams play was Zook's specialty in the NFL and I think he and Stoops at Oklahoma both have to solve some problems in that department. The defense is more than questionable but I think their offense will be consistent and will carry the day more often than not. They were -6 in TO Margin so maybe a improvement in the running game will help that "turn around" this year.
This is one of about five teams that I just have a good feeling about due to a lot of factors that seem to be going their way.

 

[GoSooners]

Here are my 11-20 teams. Naturally I don't feel as strong about these teams as I do my top 10. But I feel like at least a few of these teams will get to 8 wins.

11.Temple-Temple has improved in wins every year under Al Golden. And with 15 starters back I expect them to get to at least 6 or 7 wins this year. They are picked 3rd in their division. And with an improved set of RB's and OL I expect this team to be a good enough rushing team to get them to around 8 wins ATS.

12.Michigan-The Wolverines have been surprised two years in a row by either FCS teams or non-BCS ooc teams. But after just 3 wins last season, they won't take anybody for granted. But more important, even though he doesn't have all of the pieces in place, in Rodriguez second season and 10 starters returning on offense, they should be more potent on offense. They do just return 5 starters on defense. But they also only play 4 road games. Which should help this team greatly. They were also -10 in TO margin last season. So any improvement there will probably get them a couple more covers. Should get to 6 wins or more this season. Which just qualifies them for this list.


13.Troy-Normally I don't play Sunbelt teams at all. Mainly because only twice in the last 3 seasons has a team from this conference gotten to even 8 wins ATS. The big reason for this is most every team in this conference plays at least 2 or 3 BCS conference teams before they even go into conference play. So that's usually 2 or 3 sure losses ATS. And then when they get into league play, all you've got is basically a bunch of teams with 1 and 2 star recruits and other team's leftovers fighting it out with each other. So this conference has a tendency to beat up on each other without any above board talent. But since no SBC team covered 8 games in 2008, I'm going to go out on a limb and pick Troy. Mainly because they always seem to be the team from this conference who gives the big boys the most problems. And with the exception of Florida, their OOC schedule is doable at least for a cover or two. If I had to pick a second choice form this conference I would pick North Texas based on only playing one BCS conference team and playing 6 home games for the first time in years. Plus they were -17 in TO margin last season. Their negative: Questionable coach

14.Colorado-Yes, I know there is a lot of deserved negative publicity right now surrounding this team. But they have several positives pointing towards an 8 wins ATS season. For one, they should have an outstanding rushing game this year. And good running games tend to keep tems in games longer and cover more spreads. Much like Air Force and Navy do most every season. And GT last year. The Buffs were -7 in turnover margin. Much of htis had to do with an injured OL last year who couldn't offer much protection for their QB's. This shouldn't be a problem this year. Their question marks are on defense. But most of CU's difficult Big 12 North games will be played in Boulder. So with their offense I expect them to keep their games close whether they win or lose.

15.UCLA-Believe it or not, even with the coaching changes and all, this team has been a very good team ATS. They went 8 wins ATS in 2006, 8 wins ATS in 2007, and 7 wins ATS in 2008. In Neuheisel's second season this team should be greatly improved form the 4-8 season last year. With their defense, if they get to 6 wins this season, I think they have a good chance to get to 8 wins ATS. Plus some other factors going their way pointing towards this is they were one of the most injured teams in the nation last year. And they had a -10 TO margin. Plus 16 starters back. A good combo for a big jump in covers. This team came close to making my top 10.

16.Oregon-I like Oregon. But not quite as much as UCLA. Mainly because of defensive questions. But good running teams like Oregon generally have a pretty good record against the spread. Even with all of the bad luck that they've had with QB and other key injuries of late, they've gone 6-6, 8-4 and 6-6 ATS in the last 3 years. And they have a favorable schedule to get them to 8 this year. They've got 3 hard but winnable road games this season vs UCLA, Zona & Stanford. But the rest they get at home. With what I expect to be another great running game and offense with a talented QB, this team should be able to move the chains, run the clock and put up plenty of cover points.

17.SMU-Picked to finish 4th in their division. I didn't expect anything out of SMU in June Jones first year. And they went 1-11 with a totally new and unfamiliar offensive system from their previous coach, and a freshman QB who was thrown to the wolves because he was protected by an OL that started 4 freshman. But this year is another story. All of these kids have a full season's worth of experience under their belts. Plus an experienced senior center who is back from injury. And who has replaces a true freshman who started at that position last year. SMU had a huge -13 TO margin last season. And they have 16 starters returning. But another reason why I really like this team is the same reason I used to like Hawaii when Jones coached there. They'll have a good vertical passing game the likes of which most of the dink and dunk teams in this conference haven't seen. The only reason this wasn't a stronger pick for me is I wasn't 100% sure that SMU could go from 1 to 6 wins in a season. But something tells me they will. Jones is the real deal. He'll have this machine humming much better this year.

18.Miami-I think this team is going to struggle some. Especially early in the season under a new offensive coordinator and more wide open system. But Whipple will be a big improvement over the last OC they had. And although i think Miami will have trouble getting to 8 wins this season because of their tough schedule, I think with their improvement on defense, improvement off of a -10 TO margin season, a young QB who should be a little more comfortable under center, plus more importantly a better running game, it should keep this team very competetive. And that's what we're looking for in covering these spreads.

19.Southern Miss-I like this team, but they are pretty low on my list because of their preseason hype of a predicted first place finish. So every cover they get, they will have to earn it. But they have 19 starters back form a 7-6 team who went 7-6 ATS. So one more cover an they are there. I don't know who in this weak defensive conference is going to stop this team. Larry Fedora is an offensive genius. Their only negative is they were +13 in TO margin last season. But that's about all I can find wrong. They were just 4 yards away from averaging 200 yards rushing per game on top of 238 yards passing. Not the kind of offense I would enjoy playing against. Especially on their home field.

20.Auburn-This is a pretty weak pick. Mainly because this team is a crapshoot this year. But Auburn always has some very good defensive personnel. Even last season, they weren't easy to score against, even though they had a weak offense and the defense were out on the field the whole game. Even though I'm still not impressed with their offensive personnel, especially at QB, I do really like seeing OC Gus Malzahn coming in with his wide open schemes. Any kind of improvement on offense could make this team tough. But they had 3 net close losses of 3 points or less last season or else they could have been 8-4 instead of 5-7. Ans since they are picked 5th in their division nothing will be expected from them this year. To me, it's all a matter of how good of a HC that Chizik really is. At least he's back at the school where he tasted some success as a DC. So there should be some good vibes there. But he'll have to do a hell of a lot better than he did at ISU. In his defense, ISU was a dead end job for any coach when he took over.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

First, I pay no attention to what Steele, or any other mag, has to say when it comes to the point spread. I do not play "teams" because it is easy to punch holes into any theories this early in the year. Teams like Notre Dame are always over valued, and the perfect team for the books and the wiseguys to throw "bait and switches" and overlays at the general public, because Joe Pub is dumb enough to wager in the Irish no matter how bad they are. Their previous ATS records of 7-6, 5-7, 4-9, 7-5, 6-6 and 4-8 in the last 6 years shows youjust how bad a wager the Irish have been. This will continue.

Miami was mentioned. Not only do they have a lousy coach IMO, but their ATS record of late has not been very good. 4-7, 4-8, 4-8, 4-8, and 7-5 in the past 5 years is just terrible. These guys are major money burners.

I take it game by game, not team by team. There are going to be some very easy games early on to wager on. The non-con games early in the season are alwasy the easiest, because the books do not want to throw out huge lines in most games. Depending on the line, there could be big money made on such games as South Carolina-N.C. State, Mississippi-Memphis, Western Michigan-Michigan, Toledo-Purdue, Baylor-Wake Forest, Maryland-Cal, and Minnesota-Syracuse. Not necessairily the headline games, but good games none the less. The linesmakers pay too much attention to the headline games like Va.Tech-'Bama.

 

[GoSooners]

First, I pay no attention to what Steele, or any other mag, has to say when it comes to the point spread. I do not play "teams" because it is easy to punch holes into any theories this early in the year. Teams like Notre Dame are always over valued, and the perfect team for the books and the wiseguys to throw "bait and switches" and overlays at the general public, because Joe Pub is dumb enough to wager in the Irish no matter how bad they are. Their previous ATS records of 7-6, 5-7, 4-9, 7-5, 6-6 and 4-8 in the last 6 years shows youjust how bad a wager the Irish have been. This will continue.

Miami was mentioned. Not only do they have a lousy coach IMO, but their ATS record of late has not been very good. 4-7, 4-8, 4-8, 4-8, and 7-5 in the past 5 years is just terrible. These guys are major money burners.

I take it game by game, not team by team. There are going to be some very easy games early on to wager on. The non-con games early in the season are alwasy the easiest, because the books do not want to throw out huge lines in most games. Depending on the line, there could be big money made on such games as South Carolina-N.C. State, Mississippi-Memphis, Western Michigan-Michigan, Toledo-Purdue, Baylor-Wake Forest, Maryland-Cal, and Minnesota-Syracuse. Not necessairily the headline games, but good games none the less. The linesmakers pay too much attention to the headline games like Va.Tech-'Bama.

I understand what you're saying about public teams. But every year at least one or two public teams beat the spread with 8 games or more. OU, Texas and Florida did it last year. Florida the year before that. Ohio State the year before that. And you don't get any more public than those teams. I think in today's game people are just as apt to bet on Florida since Urban Meyer got there than they would a Notre Dame. And yet they've still had 8 and 10 wins seasons ATS in the last 2 years. Public teams can also have a long span of not covering the spread, and then break out. Before last year, OU hadn't had a good ATS season since 2003. Texas was the same way. They had gone 5-6 ATS the last 2 seasons before breaking out with 9 wins ATS last year. Much of it has to do with finally having a good enough offense to be able to overwhelm your lesser opponents. And this is what happened last season with these three teams. Notre Dame has a very easy schedule and the best and most complete offense than they've had in the last 10 years. This was my main reason for including them here. As for Miami, they are pretty low on my list because I have the same reservations about their head coach as you do. I think with this team it's all about how the public views them. This is a new era, and I don't think the public is nearly as high on Miami as they used to be. Plus you can't base everything entirely on coaching. Even Carl Dorrell, as bad a HC as he was at UCLA, was actually a very good ATS coach. Probably because he had a pretty good assistant coaching staff like Shannon has to keep his games close. But he just couldn't win the games he was supposed to win.

 

[tommyjohn44]

You do have a valid point. The running game is one of my top considerations that go into figuring these teams. For instance Texas Tech wins on average about 9 games SU every year, but never can seem to win over 6 games ATS. Mainly because they never have a clock chewing running game. In Notre Dame's case, they averaged only 113 ypg rushing last season. They'll have to improve on those numbers to get to 8 wins.. But I'm taking Phil Steel's word for it that this team will be improved in the rushing department with their best RB production than in the last 5 years. Plus a veteran offensive line of upperclassmen with 8 of their 10 deep back this year.

Texas Tech could very well be a team to watch ATS this year. I think there will be some lines set against them because of the loss of Harrell & Crabtree, the left side of the OL, their 2 leading sack guys and their top safety. They have some VERRRY good young talent on the defensive side of the ball, a QB in Potts that has a much stronger (though not as accurate) arm than Harrel, what is easily their deepest WR corps (though nobody with quite the HR ability of Crabtree) with 8-10 guys that will see regular PT and catch 20+ balls, and (most importantly when it comes to ATS talk), 2 very capable running backs in Baron Batch and redshirt frosh Harrison Jeffers. Leach showed increased reliance on the running game last year and if they're going to win 9+ games this year then the running game will be one of the main reasons that they do. Batch is a solid runner between the tackles that has a knack for getting an extra yard or two after contact and Jeffers might be the best back nobody in the country has heard of. He is very much a HR threat and will turn some heads with the plays he makes this year.

Now do I think Tech wins 9 SU or ATS this year? Probably not but I definitely think that 8 is possible because they will definitely be double digit dogs going into Austin in September and might even open as a small dog @ Houston the following week after a presumed loss to Texas. Throw in a trip to Stillwater, another to Lincoln and the Sooners coming to town in late November and you're looking at 5 games where Tech could be a dog.

 

[GoSooners]

Texas Tech could very well be a team to watch ATS this year. I think there will be some lines set against them because of the loss of Harrell & Crabtree, the left side of the OL, their 2 leading sack guys and their top safety. They have some VERRRY good young talent on the defensive side of the ball, a QB in Potts that has a much stronger (though not as accurate) arm than Harrel, what is easily their deepest WR corps (though nobody with quite the HR ability of Crabtree) with 8-10 guys that will see regular PT and catch 20+ balls, and (most importantly when it comes to ATS talk), 2 very capable running backs in Baron Batch and redshirt frosh Harrison Jeffers. Leach showed increased reliance on the running game last year and if they're going to win 9+ games this year then the running game will be one of the main reasons that they do. Batch is a solid runner between the tackles that has a knack for getting an extra yard or two after contact and Jeffers might be the best back nobody in the country has heard of. He is very much a HR threat and will turn some heads with the plays he makes this year.

Now do I think Tech wins 9 SU or ATS this year? Probably not but I definitely think that 8 is possible because they will definitely be double digit dogs going into Austin in September and might even open as a small dog @ Houston the following week after a presumed loss to Texas. Throw in a trip to Stillwater, another to Lincoln and the Sooners coming to town in late November and you're looking at 5 games where Tech could be a dog.

My main concern with Texas Tech in covering these spreads has always been their defense. They've never been able to get the blue chippers on that side of the ball that Texas and OU have. And their defense has really hurt them when they've gone on the road.. They are kind of an exception to rule with their rushing stats since a 5 yard pass or screen is considered a running play to Leach. But it hurts them when it comes to time of possession. And time of possession is more important over the course of the season than it is in one or two blowout games where the weak sister never had a chance. Leach's teams have only got to the 8 wins ATS mark just once in his 10 year tenure. But if he can get the game off of the shoulders of his QB and runs the ball more, then combine that with the no hype they are getting this season, they'll have a chance to get there. It's the teams you least expect to cover that you have to watch. So I'll be watching TT early to see how they operate this season without Harrell and Crabtree.