I wrote this under the law description thread, but figured I can make it it's own thread.
How or why did it happen? That is like who left the barn door open, after the horse has already ran out. But, I believe three things, BOS, the religious right pressing Frist and the rise of online poker. To the gov, BOS was the smoking gun. All this internet gambling is just a ruse for the mob to launder money, diversify assets and evade US racketeering laws. All the critics point at Kaplan and mob pals as why this must stop.
Frist was pressured from the religious right to show a tangible victory before the elections. That is why is kept running around looking for a bill to attach his to. He obviously made it lucrative for the port bill sponsors to tag along. From support to campaign contributions, it could be anything.
The rise of online poker was just a slap in the governements face. Betting offshore went from low profile degenerates looking for action to mainstream poker players growing geometrically by the year. The visibilty, mainstream coverage and advertisement turned betting offshore to barely under the radar to flying in the face of the gov.
OK. Now that the blame game is done and the horse is gone now what? Boy, people were so skeptical, even myself, that this was just another dog and pony show that not many had a contingency plan if it did happen. You will see many panic moves, especially by publicly traded corps. You will see their stock prices plummet. Already have. Most will use the BOS example, we do not want to put our corporate leaders at risk. They will save their own asses first, and not care about fighting the good fight.
The books, mainly those not publicly traded will take a wait and see approach. They barely have anything to fear. The smaller books may fold up the tents and go home, but they were on thin margins anyway. The books are mentioned as potential criminals but the real target is financial transactions. Not the books, not blocking isps.
Funding. There is the gotcha. They knew the only bite they think they have is financial transactions. However that is a big think. There is no plan in place. There was no feasibility study. Many beleive it cannot be enforced. With major drains fighting other failed wars, drugs, terrorism, Iraq, Afghanistan and soon the rest of the world, this is a low priority issue. Funding the enforcement may be a problem in itself. Actually implementing it, might be like pulling a rabbit out of a hat, but not having the funds to buy the hat or the rabbit. Plus, you can't do it anyway, without smoke and mirrors. The banks are already overwhelmed by the Patriot Act chasing terror. Now they have normal everyday customers who may just play online poker on the weekends. Recreational bettors. They probably outnumber terrorist in our great country a million to one. The bank will be asked/forced to pour over all tractions, eft's, cc's, checks, wires, you name it. And the people they are targeting? Every day Americans. Not one of these people will be running the streets yelling Death to America, it is us.
270 days is the magic number, probably somewhat less. You have to decide before the law is implemented a course of action. There might be a huge backlash from a lot of sources. Banking, might just find out, it can't be done. Then what? If it can be done it will be like squeezing a balloon. The air just goes somewhere else. The government and the banks will always be a step or two behind the fleeter businesses. By the time it is implemented, there will be workarounds provided. So even with little effort, you and I can continue what we do. They are trying to monitor and control international commerce. Key word being international. This cannot be done. No maybes here. We can only prosecute people in our own country. We will shake our fists at the rest of the world, but a lot of people are no longer listening to Uncle Sam. He is appearing more and more like a lunatic out of control, out of touch.
The panicky will bail first. That always happens. Then? Time will tell. In a way the government is it's own worst enemy when it comes to enforcing laws they really can't. Drug prices are lower than when then when the war started. Prisons are full of low level drug dealers, and more replaced them. Availability is at an all time high, and interdiction levels a all time low. All those drug people found ways around it. The War in Iraq, huge expensive tar baby. Even Afghanistan is slipping backwards. They will undoubtedly raise their hands in triumph when stump talking, but a commoner backlash could comeback to bite them hard. You can only do so much before regular people say, enough is enough.
The religious right is slowly turning our country into a facist state. They must be repudiated before the entire game ends. They are the power brokers, not the front men who are merely puppets. All of the right wingnut religious power brokers must be stood up and straightened out. If everyone just lies down and takes this they will walk all over you until there is nothing left but them, and people afraid to stand up to them. This is the path we are on now. Why are they so powerful? Because they vote, they campaign and fund candidates. They work the political machine to perfection. In order to beat them you have to do the same. Become vocal, more importantly become heard and seen. Vote, write letters and make phone calls. They slipped this in the backdoor at the last minute when no one can do anything about it, the American way. Right wing candidate? Oppose them. Contribute against them, get them voted out. Enough of the Kyl's, Frist's and Leeches. Out.
This war can be stopped in it's tracks because it has close to no support. And it is a war on ourselves. I am not one for panic attacks or whining the game is over. They have one long fight ahead, and I will never rollover and surrender. They will take my betting priveledges away when they bust down my door and drag me off to the gambler's gulag. Until then, I fight.
Best Wishes...OF :howdy:
