My take on the Big Game

[russ1945]

I use a system which I call the average ranking system. I take the offensive scoring ranking and the defensive scoring ranking for each team – add them together – and divide by two to get the average ranking.

Let’s take a look at the semi-final playoff games – the lower the average ranking the better.

The average rankings for the four semi-finalists were – Alabama 11.5, Oregon 14.5, Ohio St 15.5, and Florida St 42.5.
Based on those stats Oregon should have won easily and they did. Alabama had a slight edge and lost. Alabama or Ohio St probably would have coasted against Florida St just like Oregon did.

Think about what Oregon would have done against Alabama. Alabama, Oregon, and Ohio St are very closely ranked and all very highly ranked.

Ohio St obviously won a more closely matched game and came from behind to do it. Although Oregon is ranked #27 in scoring defense they are ranked #84 in total defense, Ohio St is ranked #17 in total defense. Total defense is a factor that cannot be ignored. It appears that Oregon’s ratio of yards per game defensively is not reflected in their scoring defensive ranking. That could be a factor being Ohio St is #9 is total offense and #5 in scoring offense.

Oregon comes into the game averaging 47.2 ppg and Ohio St is averaging 45 ppg.

This should be a close game but I think the quality of the opponents in the semi-finals could be the difference. I think Ohio St faced a tougher opponent and that their momentum is for real whereas Oregon’s win over Florida St does not really reflect true momentum.

Keep in mind that Florida St turned the ball over 5 times against Oregon. Will Ohio St do that. I don’t think so.

 

[Aloha_4_Da_Winna]

In that case, Alabama had 3 interceptions, will Mariota do that? Hope not, but you never know. It's gonna be a great game, and first to 2 turnovers loses the game in my opinion.

 

[dtmad]

Good point about the 5 Florida State TO's, Russ. But how many did Oregon need to win it? 59-20....?

 

[russ1945]

Good point about the 5 Florida State TO's, Russ. But how many did Oregon need to win it? 59-20....?

Turnovers could be a key and no one can predict those. My point really is that Florida St would have lost to any of the other three semi-finalists Whoever played them got as close to a bye as one could get at that level. I thought Florida St might rise to the occasion but that was not going to happen. Again, ask yourself how Oregon might have fared against Alabama and especially at another site. And another big factor is Urban Meyer who has been there and done that. Ohio St is deeper and if their 3rd string QB gets them there that is quite a feat team wise.

 

[GoSooners]

Good point about the 5 Florida State TO's, Russ. But how many did Oregon need to win it? 59-20....?

Oregon scored 34 points off of turnovers.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I agree that turnovers will decide this game. Mariota does not turn the ball over. Neither team has much of a defense. I look for a close, high scoring game. I have no betting interest in the game because I have Oregon and 15/2 and have decided to hedge this game by taking Ohio State at +220, which is good now, but could have been better had I acted sooner. I still would love to know what Oregon had in mind by deciding to wear copy cat uniforms. Ohio State away uni's minus the scarlet trim and plus a few added details.

 

[Acebb]

Oregon scored 34 points off of turnovers.

Yep. All of those TO’s came in the 2nd half in a span of 12:54 in game time, the score went from 25-20 to 59-20.

 

[GoSooners]

A couple more facts about the game that I got from a contributing writer on my website. Despite losing the game, Florida State still gained 528 yards on Oregon. Normally when you put up 528 you score more than 20 points. So you can't afford to self destruct against Oregon or they can steamroll you in a hurry. I still say what really hurt FSU in this game is not having a running game to help take the pressure off of Wintson. And we saw how he performed when things started to unravel for them. At any rate, a 639-528 yards game is usually more condusive to a 10-14 point game. But a fumble recovery TD pushed Oregon's scoring total higher, as FSU giveaways were taking potential points off the board for the Seminloes. Otherwise they averaged 6.1 yards per play. Not bad for a team that just got blown out. The question that will be answered is if "fast break" football can finally win the crystal ball. But so far history has told us the bottom line is the boxscore of a champion is not usually a team that allows 500+ yards and 6 ypp in a game. At least it hasn't yet! But I admit things are trending this way with all of the fast break offenses we have now. The reason I say this is because FSU allowed 462 yards and 5.8 ypp to Auburn last year. Something we never would have seen even 5 years ago. So it at least appears things are trending that way. And we know both OSU and Oregon are capable of putting up a lot of yards and points in a game. So it at least looks like shootout city. Which accounts for the rising total.

You can take out of this stat what you like. But in my opinion it is the true tale of the tape since both of these teams appear to be the same strength they were when they played common opponent Michigan State:



Ohio State outgained Michigan State 568-536 in East Lansing
Oregon outgained Michigan State 491-466 in Eugene

Very similar yardage differentials even though Oregon enjoyed the benefit of a home game. From all of the stats that I'm seeing between these teams, I'm just not finding any evidence of a blowout. I think with the general public the difference in this game will be Mariotta. But how much is he worth? And how much was losing Miller or Barrett worth? My guess is if either of those QB's were playing we would see closer to a 3 to 4 point line. So the QB situation is already figured into the spread. I think we all know that this game is more than likely going to be determined by turnovers. When you have a team like Oregon who has a +20 turnover margin ratio, we know that their lack of a great defense doesn't matter quite as much. So what are we gambling on in this game? For me it will can Ohio State perform up to their +9 tunrover margin advantage that they've enjoyed this season, or will Jones lack of experience cause OSU to lose the turnover battle? This is the 5 million dollar question. But to get the win the Ducks fans want, we'll have to see a repeat of the Rose Bowl. And games very rarely repeat themsleves.

 

[cashflow50]

A couple more facts about the game that I got from a contributing writer on my website. Despite losing the game, Florida State still gained 528 yards on Oregon. Normally when you put up 528 you score more than 20 points. So you can't afford to self destruct against Oregon or they can steamroll you in a hurry. I still say what really hurt FSU in this game is not having a running game to help take the pressure off of Wintson. And we saw how he performed when things started to unravel for them. At any rate, a 639-528 yards game is usually more condusive to a 10-14 point game. But a fumble recovery TD pushed Oregon's scoring total higher, as FSU giveaways were taking potential points off the board for the Seminloes. Otherwise they averaged 6.1 yards per play. Not bad for a team that just got blown out. The question that will be answered is if "fast break" football can finally win the crystal ball. But so far history has told us the bottom line is the boxscore of a champion is not usually a team that allows 500+ yards and 6 ypp in a game. At least it hasn't yet! But I admit things are trending this way with all of the fast break offenses we have now. The reason I say this is because FSU allowed 462 yards and 5.8 ypp to Auburn last year. Something we never would have seen even 5 years ago. So it at least appears things are trending that way. And we know both OSU and Oregon are capable of putting up a lot of yards and points in a game. So it at least looks like shootout city. Which accounts for the rising total.

You can take out of this stat what you like. But in my opinion it is the true tale of the tape since both of these teams appear to be the same strength they were when they played common opponent Michigan State:



Ohio State outgained Michigan State 568-536 in East Lansing
Oregon outgained Michigan State 491-466 in Eugene

Very similar yardage differentials even though Oregon enjoyed the benefit of a home game. From all of the stats that I'm seeing between these teams, I'm just not finding any evidence of a blowout. I think with the general public the difference in this game will be Mariotta. But how much is he worth? And how much was losing Miller or Barrett worth? My guess is if either of those QB's were playing we would see closer to a 3 to 4 point line. So the QB situation is already figured into the spread. I think we all know that this game is more than likely going to be determined by turnovers. When you have a team like Oregon who has a +20 turnover margin ratio, we know that their lack of a great defense doesn't matter quite as much. So what are we gambling on in this game? For me it will can Ohio State perform up to their +9 tunrover margin advantage that they've enjoyed this season, or will Jones lack of experience cause OSU to lose the turnover battle? This is the 5 million dollar question. But to get the win the Ducks fans want, we'll have to see a repeat of the Rose Bowl. And games very rarely repeat themsleves.

love the factoids GS. Didn't really notice they had a common opponent. Thats close.

 

[Wanger]

So you can't afford to self destruct against Oregon or they can steamroll you in a hurry.

I saw a stat the other day I thought points this out, don't know what points came off TO's but it just shows how true your point is.

Oregon runs this year

21-0: UCLA, Stanford, Utah
24-0: Cal
28-0: Washington, Michigan St
30-0: Arizona, Oregon St
34-0: Florida St

Nice writeup BTW.

 

[MIDWEST_MAN]

I saw a stat the other day I thought points this out, don't know what points came off TO's but it just shows how true your point is.

Oregon runs this year

21-0: UCLA, Stanford, Utah
24-0: Cal
28-0: Washington, Michigan St
30-0: Arizona, Oregon St
34-0: Florida St

Nice writeup BTW.

I think that is why their uptempo offense is so difficult to play against. The other team turns it over and the opposing D is right back out there and not only are they back out there, but they have to defend a hurry-up offense for the second straight series with little air left in their lungs.

I feel like if Oregon gets ahead by 14 or more, then you better kiss it good-bye, because the Ducks have that killer instinct and inner confidence with their offensive identity/Mariotta coolness/not-prone-to-turnovers.

I believe this is the game that everyone says - YEAH - that is the Cardale Jones that is the 3rd string QB. I believe OHIO STATE will play conservative with him and play not to lose against that up-tempo offense. Thus, taking some rhythm away from Jones and running a lot with Elliot and others. Then, later in the game they will turn to him on key third down plays....and I think his rhythm will be effected.

Personally, I like OSU's team coordinators more than I do the Ducks, but I truly sway into the corner with the better QB. I have a lot of money on this game at UNDER 7. I feel very comfortable with that number.

 

[MackDonald]

Oregon had high-expectations of going "all the way" in the 2014 from the outset; The AZ loss threw a reality check into their plans, but they rebounded nicely winning the Pac-12 which gave them a shot at making the play-offs and the rest is history unfolding.

Ohio State: First the loss to Virginia Tech (ouch) and then the rash of injuries portrayed a bleak picture regarding any hopes for a shot at any title ....Then, the Michigan State win and the victory over "Mighty Michigan" and then the blow-out win against the Badgers
(with a third-string QB) and, suddenly, a berth in the play-offs was there. The Buckeyes have the momentum going for them especially after the (big) win over Alabama and here we are.

The momentum is definitely with Ohio State led by that rookie, third string QB...It will be interesting to see how the Oregon defense will try to shut-him down. My personally feeling is, Oregon needs to out-score Ohio St which they can do with their slick QB leading the way.

My play will be OVER the number.

 

[JohnBlue123]

Hi Russ. Thanks for your insight. I used to check your bowl threads religiously. How did you do this year? Sure could have used your insight on the oregon-fsu game.

 

[russ1945]

Well we stand at 21-17 ATS (56%) and the goal was 60%. Two games prevented reaching that goal. Houston scored 29 points in the 4th quarter to make Pitt a loser. Central Michigan scored 34 points in the 4th quarter to make W. Kentucky a loser. Those two would have put it at 23-15 ATS (61%). Like I always say, sh-t happens.
Meanwhile the national championship game is the only remaining game. I am going with Ohio St plus the points. Hope everyone had a good bowl season. We only hit the ML dog 5 teamer but that should have paid off nicely if you went with it.
Like I always say, bowls are a different animal. Teams like Oklahoma just did not have it and teams like Houston and C Michigan just never quit. A lot of tangibles but all in all we did pretty well and hopefully Ohio St will come through. BOL

 

[russ1945]

Hi Russ. Thanks for your insight. I used to check your bowl threads religiously. How did you do this year? Sure could have used your insight on the oregon-fsu game.

From my site:

Well we stand at 21-17 ATS (56%) and the goal was 60%. Two games prevented reaching that goal. Houston scored 29 points in the 4th quarter to make Pitt a loser. Central Michigan scored 34 points in the 4th quarter to make W. Kentucky a loser. Those two would have put it at 23-15 ATS (61%). Like I always say, sh-t happens.
Meanwhile the national championship game is the only remaining game. I am going with Ohio St plus the points. Hope everyone had a good bowl season. We only hit the ML dog 5 teamer but that should have paid off nicely if you went with it.
Like I always say, bowls are a different animal. Teams like Oklahoma just did not have it and teams like Houston and C Michigan just never quit. A lot of tangibles but all in all we did pretty well and hopefully Ohio St will come through. BOL

 

[GoSooners]

I had a good bowl season going 19-10 on my site. Thanks in large part to the running dogs. They went 12-2 ATS. Their best performance since around 2008. I believe that was the year they had something like a 20-4 ATS run and we cleaned up on the bowls.

 

[russ1945]

I always pick every game according to my system which probably hurts the percentage but anything close to or exceeding 60% is good. My 5 team dog parlay was N.C St - V Tech - S Car - Mich St -UCLA (who came out as a dog).

 

[GoSooners]

I always pick every game according to my system which probably hurts the percentage but anything close to or exceeding 60% is good. My 5 team dog parlay was N.C St - V Tech - S Car - Mich St -UCLA (who came out as a dog).

You had to enjoy the hell out of that Michigan State game. I was also on MSU and we were going crazy when Sparty started making their comeback. That was one of the most satisfying wins that I've ever had in the bowl season. My hate for Baylor also helped make it nicer too.

 

[russ1945]

You had to enjoy the hell out of that Michigan State game. I was also on MSU and we were going crazy when Sparty started making their comeback. That was one of the most satisfying wins that I've ever had in the bowl season. My hate for Baylor also helped make it nicer too.

I used to like Briles and Baylor but I changed as this season progressed. Great game to watch though and MSU is a good bowl team as of late.

 

[russ1945]

Been going over bowl results and this caught my eye. I was checking on bowl games where two teams ranked in the AP top 25 thru week 16 played each other. I found 10 such games and the lower ranked teams won ATS against the higher ranked teams 7 out of 10 ATS. Example Boise St was ranked #21 and beat higher ranked Arizona SU and ATS. One game stood out though. Florida St had the higher ranking (#2) over Oregon (#3) yet Oregon was favored by more than a TD.

Ranked teams who played unranked teams went 3-2 ATS (60%)