My Superbowl 50

[Mobdeeper7239]

With 2 weeks to prepare for this one, peyton is 1-2 in these games su & ats. Cam newton is 0-0 though. I don't know how anyone can expect Cam Newton not to do what he has done all season? Except, in this certain situation it might not be a good thing. This is the first time Peyton has been a dog in the bowl. That's key. Because this is the first time he isn't expected to win this game. He will use every minute to his advantage while Cam is soaking in the spot light and telling everyone how great he is. All season the panthers have been undervalued all season, now all of a sudden they are over valued as 6 pt favorites on neutral field. Sounds like too much respect now at the wrong time. Trust me, the ats does matter. How do you think Vegas sleeps and eats? Not because one team is dominating everyone and covering every game. This is 2016. Not 1985.


There was one thing that was holding Denver back from winning this game but what I noticed was it didn't apply to underdogs in the superbowl, If denver were a favorite to anyone they wouldn't cover.
I see this as one of the closest super bowls ever. Anyone who watched last years bowl realized that game was 100% manipulated by the league offices. There was no way in hell they were going to let 2 superbowls in a row get out of hand. Honestly, New England might of beaten Seattle by double digits in last years bowl if it wasn't manipulated. It was 7-7 when Brady threw gronk a td on kj wright down the sideline to make it 14-7 with under 40 seconds left. Seattle went 80 yards in under 35 seconds. With maybe one or 2 timeouts. Think for a second when was the last time Seattle ever went 80 yards that quick before this season where Russel and Baldwin broke out? It never happened. Refs gifted them a 15 yard face mask that was ADDED ON to the original play, on a defensive back when the receiver didn't even have the ball or have it thrown to him. That is either illegial contact 5 yards accepted penalty or declined because you liked the result of the play. All the hands to the face and helmet turning Josh Norman and Odell Beckham did this season was all good but when it is in the superbowl and they want a tie game going into the half...they will change the rules. Also a clear trip on purpose by Malcom Butler on Doug Baldwin in the middle of the 4th quarter when Pats were trailing, no call because they wanted Brady to have a chance to be heroic. They manipulated the rules how they wish to get a better outcome. And with this being superbowl 50!! They will be talking about this superbowl for decades to come.....it will no way be a blowout. They will turn out the lights in the stadium or do whatever they have to do. Then they will let fate decide the game. Both teams have solid coaches but Denver has the coaching edge this year.

looking at Denver spread, props 1-3 pt win margins on both sides. +569, +647. I'll be back with what I get locked in later. Would like to see where the line settles

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

I will be adding on all the thoughts that pop in my head over the next 2 weeks... one being Carolina had a few misleading games this season. Where they should of been in the game with the team but one play would change the course of the game. This past week you can argue Patrick Petersons fumble ended that game. 17-7 getting the ball back at mid field with 5 minutes in the half was a game changer. When they played the Redskins at home.... Greg Olsen got rocked and the ball popped up in the air and it was returned for Redskins touchdown. If it stood Redskins would have taken the lead on that play, but they called it back for a bogus hit to the neck area and Carolina scored a touchdown a couple plays later to take a 10 pt lead in that game. Games that turned into blowouts fast over mishaps Carolina didn't create. To me that is luck instead of domination.

 

[cashflow50]

your threads are one of the must reads in here. gl

 

[Samhain]

I enjoy your threads as well.

I believe Denver will not only cover, but will win SU.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Thanks guys.



Denvers game managing approach will be a factor in this game and way they have played just about every game close this season proves that. Their biggest win was 19 pts and there biggest loss was 16 pts. and that 16 pt loss was Vs the Chiefs when Peyton threw like 3 INTs on his first 5 passes and they shut him down after that game. That game I honestly thought they had lost by 25. Tells you regardless of the odds, Denver has the tools to keep the game close. The defense is too good, the coaches are too smart, and the qb is playing in his last game ever. He will play the same way he played against New England and I think that's enough to bring home the cash.

 

[woodypaige]

Good Luck Bud

 

[tulah]

Glad to see your leaning Broncos. With this being Manning's unofficial last game, the refs will figure out a way to help him ride off into the sunset with another ring and SB MVP trophy. it's hard for me to imagine anything else.

Best of luck.

 

[wizard1183]

Glad to see your leaning Broncos. With this being Manning's unofficial last game, the refs will figure out a way to help him ride off into the sunset with another ring and SB MVP trophy. it's hard for me to imagine anything else.

Best of luck.

If he was on Carolina Id have been floored. Lmao he may not be always right when it comes to these games, but his information and intuition is pure gold and worth the read!

 

[3pointdog]

Mob for prezzzzz...!!

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

I think I remember the last two players who had 50 touchdowns entering this game. One was Peyton and they lost 48-8 and one was almighty Tom Brady when a giants player had to catch a ball on top of his head to win the game.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Interesting. Is the record nine for most rushing tds for a QB? Fuck, I think it is

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Interesting. Is the record nine for most rushing tds for a QB? Fuck, I think it is

Nevermind. Cam Newton broke it in 2011 with 14. Funny that it is Cam Newton though. Oh man I was about to start talking all this wild shit in here

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

A few years ago I created a thread about wade phillips as a D coordinator. He might be the best D coordinator I have seen in my lifetime. 1989-1990 in his first year as a D coordinator for Denver they lost the superbowl 55-10. This is his second time for him at a superbowl. To give up 55 in his first time in the bowl, this is the redemption of a lifetime for Wade Phillips. Anyone calling Wade Phillips and Gary Kubiak losers do not know shit about the nfl. All I hear is this superbowl being compared to Denver/Seattle a couple years ago and how Carolina is Seattle. Peyton was going into that game with all types of jinxes against him. Along with two actual loser coaches in Jack Del Rio and John Fox.

Jack Del Rio and Wade Phillips are not even on the same planet as Defensive coordinators. Maybe as head coaches they are close but as D coordinators, no.


I think one of things the 85-86 Bears and 84-85 49ers had in common was they both did what they did in the time frame of two years. The competition in the 80's was dismal compared to other decades. That is partial the reason why those teams did what they did. Will a team go 15-1 next year? My guess is no way. But we'll see.

so I went back and took a look at those two teams. Bears and 49ers both had shutout victories in their playoff runs in those two years. Meaning both of those 15-1 teams had at least one game in the playoffs where it wasn't the favorite and the over. In other words, both of those special teams had games where it was the favorite and the under in the playoffs and over and the fav in the sb ended up hitting. Over and the favorite is what the sheep love to play. If everyone wants to compare Carolina to the 85 bears, then how come Seattle came back with 24 in the 2nd half?

Last week I said 0 chance both favs could win last week. This week I say Carolina + over has 0 chance of hitting.

Books have already made their money on Carolina....time to make their money against them in the perfect spot.

Sb champs who have spreads under 9 every game in the playoffs.... have never made it over and - the pts in every playoff game including the superbowl. Meaning the only team to do it was a team that was -10 or higher during the playoffs.

There has been some great teams that have had a chance to break this but didn't. 08 pitt. 99 rams, greatest show on turf. Greenbay 2010 team had a chance. Like I said earlier in this thread comparing now to 1985 and expecting the same result is not logical thinking.

so if you like Carolina, last thing I would do is play the over with it.

If you like the over, you might as well add Denver. Had a feeling it might close at 5 but I will be back


I just played Denver on the ML +192



gl Super Sunday bets

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

I did this off the top last night. Just freestyling shit, i do it in my sleep

 

[cashflow50]

Another great read. Hope we hit today brotha

 

[CATWINS]

Bol mob enjoy the game.

 

[bradyisgod]

Good luck and good write-up. I'm opposite of you here but you make some good points. Enjoy the game and throw one back. It's easy to take this stuff to seriously! At the end of the day it's just money. Cheers.

 

[memphis]

bol mob d get it. yup. woot.

Memphy Love

 

[bigwang]

Nice writeup but you put way too much time coming up with conspiracy theories on league manipulating outcomes.

Best of luck with your plays.

Everyone believes Denver will run the ball and keep Panthers offense on sidelines. Problem is Denver is just an average team running the ball. Game will boil down to which team can convert on 3rd downs. Both teams are solid on defensive 3rd down conversion percentages but Carolina slightly better on offensive conversions. Add in that Denver can't afford to be in as many 3rd and longs since Manning throws about as well as his daughter and I give Panthers the edge here.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Thanks fellas.

Bigwang not sure if you read or not but I spend little to no time coming up with conspiracy theories for the nfl manipulating games. They do it for me, I don't need to do any research involving that