My Sunday Card (so far)

[chonce]

I am cold as it gets – I have only won 8 of my last 26 bets, including a few large bets.

Right now I am: 59-43-2 + 21.8 units But just after week 7 I was up something like 49 units and went on a 11-0 run. I need go back to measure my specific record on 4-unit, 3-unit plays etc… am too traumatized to do it right now!


So I am on a sharp downward slope. . Maybe the law of averages says I am due for some wins, or maybe you should fade me. I am playing a little smaller this week than I have in the past two horrific weeks. My plays so far this week(unless otherwise stated bet is -110):

Jax + 6 -120 (1 unit)
Philly -5.5 ( 2 units
GB/Det FH UNDER 24.5 (1 unit)
Pats -6.5 (-125) 4 units
Ari + 3 (2 units)

Note: I made a bet on Carolina earlier this week, but I am going to buy out of it and might even take the Titans. The line movement has scared me off. So the process of buying out has already cost me .4 units which I will account for when the day is over (it is not accounted for in the above YTD)

On that note, I posted a thread on the Carolina/Tenn game, and I would love to hear opinions, as I am seriously considering taking Tenn for a couple of units (if I was persuaded enough to eat the juice and buy out I probably should – but again, I have been cold, so the Panthers will win by 30).

 

[indiana]

Chonce...............BOL with all you week end action.............indy

 

[chonce]

Add:

Stl Team Total UNDER 24.5 (-105) 2 units
Car Team Total UNDER 24.5 (-120) 1 unit
Minn/Oak Total UNDER 44.5 (1 unit)

 

[GasMan]

Tenn will get stomped. I was at the Saints Titans game last week Tenn was very fortunate on a half dozen plays and also.teceived several charity calls at crucial times.
Panthers is the play.
Fyi I am a season ticket holdet for New Orleans...they got a bad deal last week and the books made millions with the "courtesy" calls by the zebras.

 

[GasMan]

Well, now that I am home and with laptop in front of me I see the RLM you are talking about ...down to +3.5 at my book. I also am mistaken, I thought Carolina was at home. I will retract my statement above...staying away from the game.
Good luck today chonce.

 

[chonce]

No problem Gas man. All things being equal, the Panthers should be able to beat the Titans by 5 points or more on the road. But this game has all the trappings and I just would feel like such a sucker (I am already am a sucker in that I had to buy out of my Panthers bet). All of that said, I do not have the courage to play Tenn + 3.5 or 4. I have had mixed results betting on the Titans this year (won betting them as a home dog vs ATL, got clobbered by the Dolphins, and got hammered playing an Over where they only scored 6 points). I did make a small play on Carolina UNDER 24.5 (-120) which is my way of hoping I can cash in on this being a classic let-down spot, but not having to depend too much on the Tennessee offense/offensive coaching etc.... The Panthers can win 24-0 and I will be happy. Or they can lose 24-0 and I will be happy. I expect Tenn will somehow cover this game, but if they do I don't expect it will be a shoot out.

 

[chonce]

Add

2h Pats/Nyg Under 27.5 (-115) 1 unit)

 

[chonce]

Add

ARI 2H TT OVER 7.5 (-140) 1 unit

 

[chonce]

7-3 today but for a small profit

Week 11 Adds

NE -6.5 (-125) 3 units
Det -1.5 (3 units)

 

[chonce]

If I didn't stagger my bets (ie 4 units on 1 game, two units on others etc...) I would have had a very profitable day. 7-3 on, say, two unit plays is a 7 +unit profit. But I ended up with only about a unit profit. But this strategy has served me well in the past so that is gambling. But it is lame to have had a 7-3 card and barley have any profit to show for it. Next week I hope to play it smart -- and so we beat on (boats against the currents and all)

 

[chonce]

Add

Hou FH +7 (-120) 1 unit

 

[chonce]

Nice win in the first half -- sitting out the 2nd half. I did mull the OVER because this slow pace can't keep up, but I don't see value anywhere. Getting my mo-jo back -- 8 out of last 11. GL all.