my regular season GOY (w/writeup)

[extra]

In last 3 meetings, Houston was favored against Rice by 18.5, 21 and 13.5 points. Houston won all three games by 8 points on average and Rice covered all three games by over 9 points on average.

Rice is a covering machine right now with a 6-1 ATS record in February. In their last game they won at CFL as 12.5 pts dog (CFL won at Rice by 25 in January). Houston is 3-7 ATS in last ten games. They will host Memphis in their next game. They don't care about their crosstown rivalery game against Rice and it is even obvious on their website where they already have the pub for the Memphis game on the front page.(http://uhcougars.cstv.com/)

Last season Rice played one road and one neutral court game against their crosstown rivals from Houston. They won last 6 against Houston on the Rice campus. The last time Houston won on the Rice campus was in 1996 when the Cougars posted a 76-74 victory at Autry Court.

In last two games Houston is 49/130 (37.7%) from the field and 8/38 (21.1%) from the three point line. According to kenpom.com they are ranked #321 in bench minutes and that's probably the reason why they are only 5-5 in last 10 games after going 12-3 in games #2 thru #15. They played 8 road games in last 13 and they are showing some signs of fatigue.

I'm taking Rice +9 for $2,000 and Rice moneyline +350 for $500


:toast:

 

[extra]

Houston in road/neutral games that started @ 5 PM ET or earlier:

0-4 SU (by 10.5 ppg)
0-4 Against the spread (by 9.5 ppg)

(At Mempis, S.Miss, Miss.State and vs Georgia Southern)


Houston before Memphis on 01/28/09:

55:62 (L) against UTEP as 5 pts home favorite.

- fewest points scored this season
- worst home defeat this season
- outscored by 16 in the 2nd half

 

[extra]

Rice in last 5 games:

135/272 from the field (49.6%) (opponents: 43.4%)

55/115 from the three point line (47.8%) (opponents: 36.7%)

 

[extra]

Coleman and Lewis played lots of minutes and scored more than half of Houston's points in last two games. Both games were played at fast pace.

They are the go-to-guys for Houston and they have to be tired.

They were only 12/32 from the field against Rice on 02/07/09.

Only one Houston player knows what it feels like to be playing this rivalery game @ Rice campus. (Mosley, a non factor)

Rice players love to share the ball. In last 5 games 6 different players scored in double digits at least once.

 

[extra]

Other reasons for Houston's recent struggle:

Easiest Non Conference schedule of all C-USA teams. (by far)

2nd fastest pace team in the C-USA (2nd only to UTEP but UTEP uses more bench players than Houston).

They only have 2 seniors, 1 as a role player and 1 playing limited roles.

They depend too much on their free throw shooting and ball control and those stats were padded big time in the first half of the season when they were mostly at home.

They lost a lot of experience and depth from last season when they were ranked #14 in the experience and #89 in depth. Even as experienced and as deep as they were last season, they lost 4 of their final 8 regular season games and their first and only Conference USA Tournament game.

Their fast pace style, easy schedule early in the season and too many road games in the 2nd half of the season kills this team every year.

 

[Jetplane]

9 is the RIGHT LINE for this matchup... i still got to read everything you wrote but man, this looks too clse to let them sweep

 

[CaptFlippy]

9 is the RIGHT LINE for this matchup... i still got to read everything you wrote but man, this looks too clse to let them sweep

What are you doing up so early?

 

[TeamRio]

FYI

You may already know this but Rice is only about 5 miles from the Uof H campus so I am not sure if "road game" plays into this too much.

Nice write up though

 

[extra]

FYI

You may already know this but Rice is only about 5 miles from the Uof H campus so I am not sure if "road game" plays into this too much.

Nice write up though

I'm fully aware of that. But Rice is a different anymal @their campus.

:toast:

 

[extra]

$1,000 Georgetown +7,
$ 200 Georgetown moneyline +260


The people are finally done backing Georgetown. Having said that, I will be on the Hoyas today. According to kenpom.com they are a top 15 team in effective height in the nation and Nova is 3-5-1 against the spread against top 100 efh teams (11-5 against all other teams). Nova played three extremely close games in last 10 days. Georgetown will out-hustle Nova today and probably win outright.


$1,000 Cleveland State +7
$ 200 Cleveland State moneyline +260

Butler clinched at least a share of the Horizon league regular season title and can clinch the title even with a loss today. Wisconsin Green Bay has to win at Wright State (not easy by any means) to get the share of the title. Cleveland State won 8 straight conference games and they have revenge on their mind as they lost to Butler on a buzzer beater in December.

 

[extra]

$500 San Diego +10


The best WCC defence in points per game allowed is getting 10 points at home in their regular season finale. San Diego will be honoring 4 seniors including the program's all-time leading scorer, the 5th year forward Pomare. A win over Gonzaga would guarantee the 4th seed and the first round bye in the WCC tournament for San Diego. Gonzaga clinched #1 seed and need any kind of win for a perfect WCC season.

 

[extra]

$500 Iowa +7
$100 Iowa moneyline +270

Northwestern won for the first time ever on the current Indiana home court (after 35 straight losses at Bloomington, 32 at Assembly Hall) earlier this week. I don't care how bad Indiana is, but when a team wins for the first time in 41 years @ Bloomington, you arer due for a letdown. Northwestern's adjusted tempo rank is #320 and Iowa is just as slow paced with a ranking of #343. And while Northwestern is 2-5 this season in 7 slowest games, Iowa is 7-3 in their own 10 slowest games.


Just for fun:

Virginia Tech +6.5 ($100)

 

[extra]

$1,000 Georgetown +7,
$ 200 Georgetown moneyline +260


The people are finally done backing Georgetown. Having said that, I will be on the Hoyas today. According to kenpom.com they are a top 15 team in effective height in the nation and Nova is 3-5-1 against the spread against top 100 efh teams (11-5 against all other teams). Nova played three extremely close games in last 10 days. Georgetown will out-hustle Nova today and probably win outright.


$1,000 Cleveland State +7
$ 200 Cleveland State moneyline +260

Butler clinched at least a share of the Horizon league regular season title and can clinch the title even with a loss today. Wisconsin Green Bay has to win at Wright State (not easy by any means) to get the share of the title. Cleveland State won 8 straight conference games and they have revenge on their mind as they lost to Butler on a buzzer beater in December.

2-0 ATS +$2,000, 1-1 Moneylines +$320

:toast:

 

[RJJM94]

I have the Houston game capped at: Houston -13

 

[Jetplane]

What are you doing up so early?

I actually work til 1:30 AM on most days heh. 9AM-1:30 is my work time but you all know I slack and cap. I am my own boss from 9AM-3PM but 3PM-1:30AM i am a slave so I can't do anything then usually.

RJ> I also think Houston covers or at least makes it close.

 

[extra]

$500 iowa +7
$100 iowa moneyline +270

northwestern won for the first time ever on the current indiana home court (after 35 straight losses at bloomington, 32 at assembly hall) earlier this week. I don't care how bad indiana is, but when a team wins for the first time in 41 years @ bloomington, you arer due for a letdown. Northwestern's adjusted tempo rank is #320 and iowa is just as slow paced with a ranking of #343. And while northwestern is 2-5 this season in 7 slowest games, iowa is 7-3 in their own 10 slowest games.

+ $400

 

[Crack Rat2]

Wish you luck, but Rices defense sucks and they are going up against perhaps the conferences best offensive team.

 

[extra]

Wish you luck, but Rices defense sucks and they are going up against perhaps the conferences best offensive team.

Rice plays excellent defense right now and Houston has two scoring threats, both guys tired and overused. Good luck to you buddy.

:toast:

 

[mofome]

made this the largest play ive ever made.

@)

 

[mofome]

ugly start