My Plays 7/25

SoundofSilence · Jul 24, 2003

< This is a copy of my post to the Yahoo! gambling group I'm on, any weird references I make is likely to them. >

Trying to bounce back from the horrible last week I had where I totally overestimated the market... Three new movies coming out, but really only one of them I like the lines on...

Tomb Raider 2 is at $25 million for the over/under on both WSEX and Olympic... My numbers put it at around $23.25 million... Looking at sequels to action flicks that are now a bit past their prime, a 50% decrease in PSA is generally a pretty good bet. Way too close to the lines being put out, so I'm staying away.

Seabiscuit is at $18 million on WSEX, $19 million on Olympic. My numbers put it at $15.8 million, but I'll admit they are very shaky... Way too many unknowns about how well this movie will do, and while I picked an unlikely movie to compare it to (28 Days Later), I think the comparison works well. Both were small movies that generated a lot of buzz, and weren't released in many theaters. Seabiscuit could have a better PSA because of its big Oscar buzz, but it could have a worse PSA because the marketing doesn't seem all that strong to me. Again, I'm staying away.

Spy Kids: 3-D is at $17.5 million on WSEX and $17 million on Olympic. My numbers it at around $14.3 million. Best comparison? The first two movies. Spy Kids 1 had a PSA of $8785 and Spy Kids 2 came in with a PSA of $5053. Spy Kids 2 had a 2-day "sneak preview", but I really don't think that makes all that big a difference on non-blockbuster kids movies -- how many would take their kids out on Wed or Thurs night to see a movie rather than wait until Fri/Sat/Sun? Assuming that Spy Kids 3 does as well as Spy Kids 2 did (which is being generous -- the marketing isn't as big, its the third in the series, and it will have some business taken away by Finding Nemo/Johnny English/Seabiscuit), that puts it at $16.8 million -- still under.

My Play: Spy Kids 3-D UNDER $17.5 million -115 (WSEX)

-Sound of Silence

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Movie Wagering YTD: 16-11, +21.45 units @ 1 unit per play.

PENDING: "Seabiscuit" +$4 million vs "Kill Bill", -115
PENDING: "Tomb Raider 2" +$3 million vs "S.W.A.T.", -115
PENDING: "Spy Kids 3-D" UNDER $17.5 million, -115

Oren1 · Jul 25, 2003

good luck.

SoundofSilence · Jul 25, 2003

Did some rethinking on Seabiscuit... Looking at past movies with some Oscar buzz surrounding them coming into their first big weekend of release:

A Beautiful Mind - $8940 PSA
Gosford Park - $5161 PSA
In the Bedroom - $2643 PSA
Crouching Tiger - $5861 PSA
Erin Brokovich - $9880 PSA
Traffic - $10277 PSA
Chocolat - $2790 PSA
Adaptation - $4709 PSA

Seabiscuit won't be rated R, but I don't think many parents will be thinking that this is the flick their children will want to see. All of the films listed above were released during weekends with no real competition -- much like this weekend for Seabiscuit. Taking the high end of that list with Traffic (which had better marketing, a well known director, and just as much, if not more, star power) with $10277 PSA multiplied by Seabiscuit's theater count of 1987, you get a little under $20.5 million. I don't think there's many reasons to believe that this movie will have a bigger draw than Traffic or Erin Brokovich did -- and if I had to think of its closest comparison, I'd say Adaptation (star power, Oscar buzz) which if it had a comparable PSA would put it well below $10 million.

My Play: Seabiscuit UNDER $19 million -140 (Olympic)

-Sound of Silence

jcambert · Jul 25, 2003

Out of curiosity, when you say that a 50% decrease in per theater average for action sequels is the norm, where do you get those numbers? CA2, 2F2F, T3, etc, did NOT decrease 50%. I don't really agree with that statement. Some sequels actually increase. Admittedly, this one won't, because the first one was so bad, however, a 50% decrease, I would say, is the exception really, not the norm.

JP

jcambert · Jul 25, 2003

By the way, here are some numbers. The percentage is the decrease or increase from the original to the sequel.

Speed: -9%
Lethal Weapons: None of them decreased 50% from one to the next.
Charlie's Angels: -18%
Fast and Furious: -2.5%
Rush Hour increased significantly
Mummy returns increased significantly

Even if you assume a 40% decrease for THIS film in PTA, that would put the film at just under $29mil which would put it over the number.

JP

Gillian · Jul 25, 2003

well put, JC. I thought what he said didn't sound right also. Sequals increase more often, but not the 3rd or 4th... except for Spy Kids 3... it's going to kick ass.

SoundofSilence · Jul 25, 2003

jcambert:

But as you can see from what I took, the 50% decrease was the "worst case scenario". All of the movies you listed all had good buzz going in, or the first one didn't do all that well. Tomb Raider 2 isn't like that. First one did extremely well, second one does not have a good buzz around it at all. Either way, my 50% remark was on the "worst case" side of things, just to make me feel better about my play.

SoundofSilence · Jul 25, 2003

jcambert:

But as you can see from what I took, the 50% decrease was the "worst case scenario". All of the movies you listed all had good buzz going in, or the first one didn't do all that well. Tomb Raider 2 isn't like that. First one did extremely well, second one does not have a good buzz around it at all. Either way, my 50% remark was on the "worst case" side of things, just to make me feel better about my play.