My pick are not with the crowd today

[fhoude]

Hey guys, no one have talked about the Red Sox tonight. Lester is pitching a lot better with only giving 8 runs in his last 5 games. The Sox offense got limited to only 3 runs during the last 2 games, DH is also back. Maybe I am to confident, but i really see a very nice value in this game.

What you guys think? I am normally very close to you guys but no one is talking about the Red Sox today.

Also, What about the Marlins, lost their last 3, but playing the Nationals who scored more than 5 runs yesterday. Expecting a miracle from nationals by pulling a second win in a row and more than 5 runs? Nolasco is Pitching incredible in his last 4 start. I need again to ask you guys why not the Marlins tonight?

here you go guys,

3 units on the Red Sox
3 units on the Marlins

 

[MemphisMonroe]

Couldnt agree with you more. Both are my picks today if i play.

 

[fhoude]

Anyone else have any comments on this?

 

[PatsFanatic]

I'm playing the Sox...Bostons got a nice little road trip going at 4-2 and they throw a very confident lefty.

Too much juice for Nolasco IMO.
GL

 

[MemphisMonroe]

Oh fyi if i play the marlins it will be the rl-1.5 (+115)!

 

[woodypaige]

I like them a lot!! Have them as a large play tonight!! Lester has dominated this team every time he has played them

 

[fhoude]

GL Woody

 

[buffettgambler]

Hey guys, no one have talked about the Red Sox tonight. Lester is pitching a lot better with only giving 8 runs in his last 5 games. The Sox offense got limited to only 3 runs during the last 2 games, DH is also back. Maybe I am to confident, but i really see a very nice value in this game.

What you guys think? I am normally very close to you guys but no one is talking about the Red Sox today.

Also, What about the Marlins, lost their last 3, but playing the Nationals who scored more than 5 runs yesterday. Expecting a miracle from nationals by pulling a second win in a row and more than 5 runs? Nolasco is Pitching incredible in his last 4 start. I need again to ask you guys why not the Marlins tonight?

here you go guys,

3 units on the Red Sox
3 units on the Marlins

Can you please explain the derivation of your premise that you are going agianst the crowd with your Boston play? Are you basing this on the highly suspect % numbers disiminated by these websites. Would it be more prudent to see the line moves on books that don't move lines on thin air (i.e Chris, Greek), books in which have shown a market indifference?

Also, I am not sure what you are implying with the latter comment inregards to the Nationals. Are you stating that there is a negative correlation to the Nationals productivity on the plate when the score at least five runs in the game prior? Is this theory solely based on the Nationals, bad lineups, or any team in general. Did the Nationals not score at least five runs in ten straight games in May?

Best of luck with your plays today.

 

[fhoude]

Thank Buffet for the comment, For the Sox game, this morning, no one was talking about this obvious bet on this forum, Since then, the line as totally jumped.

And for the Nationals, in June, when winning with 5 runs or more ( 3 games), the next game have been as follow : 3L : 5-1 lost , 7-0 Lost and 11-1 lost.

It s a trend that needs to be consider,

 

[buffettgambler]

Thank Buffet for the comment, For the Sox game, this morning, no one was talking about this obvious bet on this forum, Since then, the line as totally jumped.

And for the Nationals, in June, when winning with 5 runs or more ( 3 games), the next game have been as follow : 3L : 5-1 lost , 7-0 Lost and 11-1 lost.

It s a trend that needs to be consider,

I don't want to tell you what to do, but if you are making bets not entirely just for recreation this logic may prove costly.

Seeking correlation between line moves (in a vacum, there is a lot of randomness and little predictive value in them to begin with) and what the RX forum talks about surely is not logical, and need not to be explained why.

The trend that you mention on the Nationals also lacks predictive value and a sample size that holds any merit. Surely you would find much higher correlated variables to why they scored such few runs in those games (i.e the pitcher they faced in those games) than because they scored five runs the game prior.

I am not saying your plays lack value, rather trying to provide caution that the logistics behind your plays lack a sustainable edge over the marketplace.

 

[ZJP6050]

Can you please explain the derivation of your premise that you are going agianst the crowd with your Boston play? Are you basing this on the highly suspect % numbers disiminated by these websites. Would it be more prudent to see the line moves on books that don't move lines on thin air (i.e Chris, Greek), books in which have shown a market indifference?

Also, I am not sure what you are implying with the latter comment inregards to the Nationals. Are you stating that there is a negative correlation to the Nationals productivity on the plate when the score at least five runs in the game prior? Is this theory solely based on the Nationals, bad lineups, or any team in general. Did the Nationals not score at least five runs in ten straight games in May?

Best of luck with your plays today.

i can't understand why you bother to talk like a rocket scientist, but i like it.

 

[fhoude]

My rational was on Nolasco first and his pitching, I didn t put any thinking in the fact that they score 5 or more runs, I was making a very stupiud comment I guess call a joke about the 5 runs thing. I was also making a very light comment buffet when saying Red Sox no one is talking about them, always refering about this forum. I am choosing them also because of the pitching mathup, thinking lester is being very good lately. It probably my french humour

 

[kaptain]

I have those 2 on a parlay...gl tonight

 

[badbeat1015]

Two winners, good job.

 

[fhoude]

I guess my rational for these two play was not that bad after all

 

[parlayallday]

Good Job Frenchy! I was on the sox too but took it on the chin with the twins.

 

[PatsFanatic]

Nice job with your plays

 

[MemphisMonroe]

I cashed both as well.

 

[fhoude]

Thanks guys, always good to discuss any bet , I am pretty much away till sunday, but I am trying to get another nice return maybe tonight, do you guys have any lock or good pick,