My only bowl play of the season! Layin 2.8 Dimes in the Rosebowl!

[3peet]

Since i haven't seen any so far. Personally this is the only game i'm playing for the bowl season. This season rather than playing numerous bowls I decided to cap one game exclusively and lay 30% of my bankroll on it. My biggest play of the year. Personally this is one I have no hesitaion in playing and quite frankly playing a whole bankroll is just poor money mangement.

I feel extremely strong about a side but wanted to see if there were others intersted in discussing this game.

[This message was edited by 3peet on January 01, 2004 at 08:43 PM.]

 

[Anonymous1]

Say what you wish about the BCS mess, but USC in my book has yet to play anybody of quality...oh...CAL did beat UV so where does that put the University of Spoiled Childern...losing to a Michigan team that has been here in LA for 8 to 10 days now in preparations for the Rose Bowl...my 2 cents.

 

[BrokeN]

We might be able to get a feel of this game by looking at the Minny/Ore game, Big 10 vs Pac 10, but then again maybe not.

Michgan traveled to Oregon in September and fell behind at halftime 6-21, eventually losing the game 27-31.

Michigan traveled to Minny in October and fell behind at halftime 0-14, eventually coming back to win the game 38-35.

USC first half scores at home:
BYU 21-5
Hawaii 31-6
Stanford 41-14
Wassu 15-10
UCLA 33-2
Ore St 28-14

Play on: USC halftime -4


BrokeN
Side note: Play on LSU @ home + @ night = very good.

 

[3peet]

well, USC routed Auburn, Hawaii, Washington State; all bowl winners.

We already know the Cal loss was a mulligan. If u fail to see that by now then go ahead n chuck ur money at the Wolverines.

-USC +20 T/O
-USC a scarry 68 YPG on the ground and an frightening 1.87 YPC.

Those two stats alone allow me to pound USC minus whatever my local gives me for 2.8 DIMES without hesitation.

So i guess there u have it. Thats my pick.

...just a side note, With USC getting jobbed for the BCS title game you know they're gonna aim to route Michigan to get a piece of the National Championship crown.

 

[3peet]

Broken, actually your point is a perfect example of how Michigan deals with a speed team (e.g. Oregon) And "speed" is only half of USC's personality. The ot
btw....I'm neither a USC Alum or fan. Just calling it how i saw it with them this year.her half is a bruising offensive line and one of the most punishing hitting secondaries in NCAA.

They don't hit recievers, they take them out of games.

 

[NEWPORT]

NEWPORT ANALYSIS

I think that USC was deserved to be in the championship game, and I think we can all sit around and talk about the BCS till were blue in the face.

The fact of the matter is that there 2 separate groups that have benefited from the BCS problems and 1 group that suffers.

First the 2 groups that it favors. One it favors the NCAA at least for them to say they put a system in place. Regardless if the system does not work, they put one in place.

The second group that it really favors is the MEDIA, and the advertisers, because the demand now to watch both of these games is HUGE. I mean HUGE

so what does this all MEAN to the selection.

You must respect Michigan because of their athletes, and the fact they are a BIG TIME program. The fact that you give a team like MICHIGAN to compete in this level game is SO MUCH more of advantage to MICHIGAN, than USC. As much as USC thinks they got shafted, They really got shafted, because now they have to win this game, which is the same as beating Oklahoma but not with the same importance.

All I am saying is expect MICHIGAN and NAVARRE to play their asses of tomorrow.

Oh yea, and I forgot, the one group that suffers from explanation above......THE FANS

NEWPORT

 

[Jacksorbetter+]

Cheapseats,
Cal beat UV? I think you mean Va Tech. It's easy to get those two confused. They're 500 miles apart and can't stand each other. Do you honestly think USC beat nobody? Did you not see Washington State play this year. Auburn was a top 3 team when USC shut them out. You also say Michigan has been in LA for 8-10 days now? How long has USC been in LA? Keep those two cents until you know the difference between UVA and Va Tech. You sound like a jealous Bruin fan talking.

 

[3peet]

Points well taken Newport. However I honestly don't believe Michigan's best defensive effort isn't an even match to USC's firepower on either side of the ball.

Good luck to you nonetheless.

Jacksor - Well said. especially regarding the "jealous Bruin fan"

 

[GoBlue]

Obviously, by my moniker, you can see my inherent bias, but my warning to you is this:

USC's defensive stats, while impressive, have largely been built against statistically one-dimensional teams. This year, USC faced only one team that ranked in the top 50 in both rushing yards/gm and passing yards/gm - and that team was, well, Cal. Michigan is in the top 30 for both.

Either way, it will be one hell of a game, and one I will have the pleasure of enjoying in person. Cheers, and Happy New Year

 

[Eibon]

I -really- like Michigan in this one.

Big Ten teams are built to be physical. PAC-10 teams are fruity and weak. Simple.

We shall see in a few hours!

E

 

[Co-Captain]

Aloha 3peet, I totally agree on your points about USC. Coach Carroll has gotten everyone excited, and this game won with a good pt margin, will definately put a close to last year as well as this years lack of respect that USC has been shown. They will be to rest once and for all any questions. Two things I see that will help them in their quest for this is one Norm Chow and his never relenting Offensive schemes. Two programs I definately know are sorry for not getting him when they had their chances are Hawaii, but more so BYU. Secondly, home field advantage. USC will have a decided advantage having all their wild fans in a frenzy. They are so hungry for this opportunity set up by last years run, to get USC back to the prominence they once had. Just to much at stake and to much potency on Off for Michigan to keep up. I respect Michigan, but with the Off of Norm Chow, Michigan will most likely have to play error free ball, as they do not possess the Off firepower that USC has to come back from making a mistake. That to me is real disadvantage for them.

RB Chris Perry should have a decent day, but if Usc gets up on Michigan, look for the corner blitzs to totally harass Navarro all day long, forcing him into bad passes. Off and Def of the Trogans showup today to lay claim to the National Champship, as they want to show a balanced team domination of a highly regarded Michigan team. Trojans just cant be ignored and especially not here in Calif.

 

[Slammy2002]

3peet,

I'm with you on this one big time. I'm a SC alumni, so I always try to protect against getting emotional when looking at SC games. I got on their bandwagon (betting) midway through the season. I've gone 7-0, I just wish I would have done away with my protect against being biased for SC mentality and loaded up all year long. This team is awesome. There is no way Michigan will be able to run the ball on SC tomorrow, so you know Navarre will be passing the ball early and often. Grotegood is not 100% healthy yet for SC which hurts a little bit. If Navarre is able to pass the ball really well, it still won't be close unless Leinart either gets hurt or plays very poorly. SC is 2-0 under coach Carrol at the Rose Bowl and have played like they own the place both times. Big home field advantage for the Trojans as they sold out every home game for the 1st time in sometime like 16 years. So unlike recent Rose Bowls, the stadium will be full of SC fans.
To sum up too many things have to go right for Michigan to be close. SC has at least 10 future 1st round draft picks playing in this game tomorrow and I can't wait till kickoff.

Trojans -6.5 HUGE Bring out the Horse!!

That's the closest thing to the Victory sign I'll be doing Thursday

Happy Newyear, best of luck to everyone

 

[3peet]

Co-Captain and Troy-

Couldn't have said it any better myself. In my eyes, Michigans offense is waaay too one sided to be able to compete in this one. Navaro (while impressive) does not have the skill nor the players to contend with SC's secondary.

Look for an opportunistic SC secondary to pad the points. (and maybe the total)

 

[LineBreaker+]

3 peet

just curious to what you have to say about the USC defense. I didn't watch them that much but the times I did see them I though they were one of the most OVERrated units in the nation. Cal did whatever they wanted and Oregon State moved the ball at will also. They did stop and beat #3 Auburn which at the time looked great but now just even look really good (just decent)

I am not saying UM is going to win I just think their defense is average at best and will struggle to stop Michigan. But they do have a good offense and that is how they will have to win because they can't shut down anyone.

 

[Railbird]

Michigan reminds of Oregon State, except Oregon st has a better runningback. I see a 24 point win like when they beat Oregon State. USC and the OVER. Yes Cal did move the ball, but Rutherford is very athletic and Cal has better possession wrs than Michigan and Cal has Tedford, Mich has a 6'6 slug foot qb, USC was cruising vs OSU, but should bring the A game and win 56-27

 

[Horseshoe]

If you like USC, then you definitely have to like the 1st play, as USC has rolled all foes that they've beaten easy & early, and Michigan has shown a propensity to play off the pace(sans the ND, Pur, & OSU revenge gm), plus the previous two West Coast Title-esque teams of the previous decade('91 Wash and '01 Oreg both rolled early and often in their Rose Bowls).

Does the Michigan of the 1st half vs Oreg & Minny show, or the following sleepwalker showing for 2nd loss arrive..or does the Mich of Oreg 2nd half(nearly realed 'em in), OSU, & Pur games show up?

Does the USC of all 1st halves show up, or does the Cal gm and OSU game defense show up..I originally leaned Mich here, but am gonna be on SC for the 1st half and Over..then go from there..If USC is in complete control at half, I'm pressing on a fair-offering, but passing if the BMs come with a bogus offering.

GL Guys!

P.S. Quit chasing SEC teams Rail, they're eating up your profits

 

[thesource]

Pete Carroll, the defensive guru, is much like Billichek of NE when it comes to scheming to stop another teams offense. Give him a month and he will be able to exploit Michigan with his various defensive zone blitzes and his run blitzes to stop Perry. I think USC's defense will confuse Navarre enough to keep him guessing. And Michigan will have to answer for Williams and Colbert. I think USC wins by at least 10. Just my two cents.

 

[3peet]

just curious to what you have to say about the USC defense. I didn't watch them that much but the times I did see them I though they were one of the most OVERrated units in the nation. Cal did whatever they wanted and Oregon State moved the ball at will also.

Linebreaker. USC's defense....let just say that they are one of the most opportunistic defenses in all of the NCAA. Corner blitzes and hidden LB schemes will keep Navaro guessing from the 2nd quarter on. As said before, they are one of the hardest hitting and most opportunistic defenses in all of Division I football.

Look for USC to score atleast 1 to 2 TD's in the game. At best, they give USC's offense execllent field position.

 

[LSUpete]

If you are looking at the total yards allowed, then one would have to say that Michigan has the better defense. However, the number that I am looking at is USC's rushing yards allowed and that number is a very stingy 63 yards per game with opponents averaging only 2 yards per carry. Those numbers are going to be a real big problem for the Wolverines. Everything that Michigan does offensively comes off of the strength of their running game. Michigan has one of the best running backs in the country and as he goes, so goes that Michigan offense. With USC padlocking the Wolverines' running game, I see John Navarre and company having some trouble without his running game. USC need only stop Chris Perry in the first couple of series and he will be out of the game plan because I think USC is going to score early in this game. USC is motivated, focused and I don't think they are going to be denied here. They are more pissed about not being in the title game than they have let on and they will use that as motivational factor. They want to show the BCS officials that they made a mistake in not putting them in the Sugar Bowl. This is essentially a home game for the Trojans (they have been able to practice at their home facility) and they will have a party at the Wolverines' expense.

Michigan is a good football team, there's no question about that but the problem for them here is that they are running into a buzz saw. I don't think the Wolverines are going to be able to match USC's drive and intensity here. They are going to have to withstand a wind storm in the early going and judging by the way they performed at Oregon earlier this season, I wouldn't bank on them weathering that storm. I really don't like the way Michigan played on the road this year either. Both of their losses this season came on the road and they sure enough had another against Minnesota before the Gophers got scared. Michigan is also 0-3 SU in their last three road games against Pac-10 teams and I know this is supposed to be at a "neutral" site but this is Pac-10 country and the Wolverines are not in the comfort of the big house. I don't like this Michigan offense when it's all on John Navarre's shoulders (and I don't think Mich. fans do either) and that's what I see happening here. Look for Michigan to falter in a big way in this contest..

USC 34 Michigan 16

 

[ChadC]

Am I the only one who thinks that for a personell standpoint that when ever Michigan brings their A-game they have a better offense then USC? I mean their whole O-line will be pros more then likely, Navarre looked great this year, Perry had one of the greatest seasons in recent memory, Braylon Edwards and Jason Avant are two fine WR's. All I keep hearing about is how USC was slighted, how they deserve to go to the title game blah blah blah. Who have they beaten this year? Have they played and beaten any Top 10 teams? Michigan was a punt team away from a perfect season this year. The Trojans are a fine team, but with the talent levels being so close I'll take 7 points any day of the week.

USC 34 Michigan 31

[This message was edited by ChadC on January 01, 2004 at 09:09 AM.]