Don't feel like just adding it to another thread...so here's my own...
First off, I'm obviously biased. I hate Urban Meyer, I hate Tim Tebow, and I hate everything about the Florida Gators. It's to be expected of me as an FSU fan. That said, we're all biased. You're either ignorant or lying if you say otherwise, and there's no point in arguing me on that. If you want to dismiss the comments as "biased", fair enough, but I've bet on UF plenty this year - including the Florida State game. I root for things as a fan, but I bet on things with (I hope) my head. So here goes:
These are, by far, the two most explosive offensive teams in the country. Even in each team's loss, they've put up plenty of points. OU is the most prolific offense in CFB history, and I don't think it's just because the Big 12 defenses suck. The Big 12 defenses don't suck; this conference is just ahead of the rest of the country when it comes to the offensive side of the ball. We knew going into the season that the QB play in this conference would be outstanding with all the returning starters, and indeed it was. And in college football, QUARTERBACK PLAY RULES ALL. Good defenses help, outstanding running backs get you some wins, but if you've got a playmaker running the show on offense, you'll win football games. Go back and look at every game over the course of the season; I can almost guarantee you that in a high majority of the games, the game was won (or covered ATS) by the team who's QB played better than the opponent's.
The Big 12 defenses have gotten a bad rep this year, but I'm nearly convinced that it's because the defensive coaches simply weren't prepared going into the season to stop these prolific offenses being run by some of the most dynamic QB's in the country. You can't tell me that Baylor is competitive this year because every defense in the Big 12 suddenly started sucking this year, or because their entire team has reached a new level. C'mon, people, it's still Baylor. The difference has been Robert Griffin, a freshman...but one hell of a difference maker and a quarterback. He'd be the third best QB in the SEC behind Tebow and Snead (and maybe even ahead of Snead on certain days), and yet he's probably only the 5th best QB in his own division (and 9th best in his own conference).
The Big 12 isn't down on defense this year. The Big 12 is just changing the face of college football with its offense. This is very important to keep in mind.
On the other side of the field is Florida, where Meyer is running a hybrid of Big 12 South Spread offense with Paul Johnson option offense, and running it with a few of the most athletic players in the country. Harvin, Demps, and Rainey are pure speed, and the receivers are very talented - we all know this. With that said, UF gets too much credit for its speed. Neither Rainey or Demps were able to breakaway from FSU's secondary on long runs in that game. Was it the turf on that rainy day? Maybe. But the video doesn't lie; both players got run down from behind. The *difference* between UF's "speed" and every other team in the country is that they have WAY more depth with it. Every offensive skill player is fast, as opposed to one or two. This simply means that they have more options, obviously an asset when running Meyer's option-based system. UF's is very, very fast, but ESPN has been inflating this line for the past 5 months while talking about UF's speed in the same way that they talked about USC's and Reggie Bush's back a few years ago. Amidst all the love for the Big 12 south this year, UF has been ESPN's favorite team ever since USC lost, and Vegas has TV's too.
Can Florida's defense stop OU? Simply...NO. They may draw up some unique blitzes to try and confuse Bradford for awhile...they may even get a turnover or two from their talented (but young) secondary. But OU will score points. Their offensive line should dominate a UF d-line that is simply not that good and arguably the weakest position on a very talented UF team. If Murray is healthy and running like he's capable of, then I'd be shocked if OU scored less than 45. Anybody claming OU hasn't seen a defense this good is absolutely retarded: TCU's defense > UF's defense. Cincy and UT's defenses might be better too. UF is still young on defense, and while they have some playmakers (Spikes), the young secondary is still very capable of being beaten by an efficient passer (Snead). Rather than arguing that OU hasn't seen a defense like UF's (false), it should be noted that UF's defense hasn't faced an offense like OU's. By the middle of the 2nd quarter, I fully expect UF's defense to be very frustrated. Charlie Strong and his FR/SO secondary is not good enough to stop an offense that is unstoppable.
Can OU stop UF? The history of this season suggests they can't, and, along with everyone else in the world, I don't really think they do. UF WILL move the ball. But if OU plays a defense similiar to the one they played against Texas Tech (bend but don't break, and don't surrender the big play), then Tebow may very well try to start pressing. When under pressure, he doesn't know what to do. He gets happy feet, and more often than not, he simply scrambles. Stuck in the pocket for an extended length of time, forced to read the secondary, he sucks. It's why he doesn't stand a chance as an NFL QB barring major, major improvement. I think OU would be wise to avoid blitzing too much. Guard the slant route and the deep wheel or go route, and UF's passing attack disappears. Hopefully OU spends the next month watching tape and realizes this.
So thus far, I think OU has both the offensive and defensive advantage.
As far special teams, UF has a clear advantage. OU's special teams flat-out suck. I'd argue that it cost them the Texas game. And UF excels at special teams. The Kentucky game was over halfway through the 1st quarter because of it, and that was without Brandon James even touching the ball. In a game of this magnitude, this is very important, and could very well be the difference in the game. With that said, special teams is easier to fix in a month's time than are offensive or defensive deficiences, so this gap may be reduced by January 8th. I'm not really counting on it though.
As for coaching...UF has the advantage here as well. Not necessarily in terms of schemes, strategies, or motivation, as I don't think OU puts out a team as good as they've had for so many years without great coaching, but something's different, and I think most of us recognize it. OU has a nasty recent history of underperforming in their bowl games, while Meyer was just there, victorious, two years ago. In the big game, UF under Meyer seems to show up slightly better than OU under Stoops...at least so far.
So...way too much text later, I've come to this:
Offense: Advantage OU
Defense: Nothing significant (although OU has seen more potent offenses, and thus could have some advantage)
Special Teams: Advantage UF
Coaching: Advantage UF
All things considered, including my biases, I think this game should be a pick'em. I think the only reason it isn't is because ESPN absolutely loves UF, Tim Tebow, Urban Meyer, and because the last two national championships have been SEC ass-kickings. Even in a game with this much money on the line, with this much time for analysis, and under this much magnitude, the line has been inflated.
I like OU in this game. Defense wins championships, but neither team has one. So I'm going with the better offense. It won't be a big play by any means, as I think with a game this close, with this many points likely to be scored, a large bet on either side is going to depend on a lot on luck, weird bounces, and just how well some 18-22 year old kids perform after a month off. It's truly a gamble, and there are a lot of better games out there to bet on, imo.
Anyway, those are just my thoughts, from someone that has watched almost every single game that has been put on the air this year. Good luck this bowl season, and may God have pity on your soul if you bothered to read all this.
First off, I'm obviously biased. I hate Urban Meyer, I hate Tim Tebow, and I hate everything about the Florida Gators. It's to be expected of me as an FSU fan. That said, we're all biased. You're either ignorant or lying if you say otherwise, and there's no point in arguing me on that. If you want to dismiss the comments as "biased", fair enough, but I've bet on UF plenty this year - including the Florida State game. I root for things as a fan, but I bet on things with (I hope) my head. So here goes:
These are, by far, the two most explosive offensive teams in the country. Even in each team's loss, they've put up plenty of points. OU is the most prolific offense in CFB history, and I don't think it's just because the Big 12 defenses suck. The Big 12 defenses don't suck; this conference is just ahead of the rest of the country when it comes to the offensive side of the ball. We knew going into the season that the QB play in this conference would be outstanding with all the returning starters, and indeed it was. And in college football, QUARTERBACK PLAY RULES ALL. Good defenses help, outstanding running backs get you some wins, but if you've got a playmaker running the show on offense, you'll win football games. Go back and look at every game over the course of the season; I can almost guarantee you that in a high majority of the games, the game was won (or covered ATS) by the team who's QB played better than the opponent's.
The Big 12 defenses have gotten a bad rep this year, but I'm nearly convinced that it's because the defensive coaches simply weren't prepared going into the season to stop these prolific offenses being run by some of the most dynamic QB's in the country. You can't tell me that Baylor is competitive this year because every defense in the Big 12 suddenly started sucking this year, or because their entire team has reached a new level. C'mon, people, it's still Baylor. The difference has been Robert Griffin, a freshman...but one hell of a difference maker and a quarterback. He'd be the third best QB in the SEC behind Tebow and Snead (and maybe even ahead of Snead on certain days), and yet he's probably only the 5th best QB in his own division (and 9th best in his own conference).
The Big 12 isn't down on defense this year. The Big 12 is just changing the face of college football with its offense. This is very important to keep in mind.
On the other side of the field is Florida, where Meyer is running a hybrid of Big 12 South Spread offense with Paul Johnson option offense, and running it with a few of the most athletic players in the country. Harvin, Demps, and Rainey are pure speed, and the receivers are very talented - we all know this. With that said, UF gets too much credit for its speed. Neither Rainey or Demps were able to breakaway from FSU's secondary on long runs in that game. Was it the turf on that rainy day? Maybe. But the video doesn't lie; both players got run down from behind. The *difference* between UF's "speed" and every other team in the country is that they have WAY more depth with it. Every offensive skill player is fast, as opposed to one or two. This simply means that they have more options, obviously an asset when running Meyer's option-based system. UF's is very, very fast, but ESPN has been inflating this line for the past 5 months while talking about UF's speed in the same way that they talked about USC's and Reggie Bush's back a few years ago. Amidst all the love for the Big 12 south this year, UF has been ESPN's favorite team ever since USC lost, and Vegas has TV's too.
Can Florida's defense stop OU? Simply...NO. They may draw up some unique blitzes to try and confuse Bradford for awhile...they may even get a turnover or two from their talented (but young) secondary. But OU will score points. Their offensive line should dominate a UF d-line that is simply not that good and arguably the weakest position on a very talented UF team. If Murray is healthy and running like he's capable of, then I'd be shocked if OU scored less than 45. Anybody claming OU hasn't seen a defense this good is absolutely retarded: TCU's defense > UF's defense. Cincy and UT's defenses might be better too. UF is still young on defense, and while they have some playmakers (Spikes), the young secondary is still very capable of being beaten by an efficient passer (Snead). Rather than arguing that OU hasn't seen a defense like UF's (false), it should be noted that UF's defense hasn't faced an offense like OU's. By the middle of the 2nd quarter, I fully expect UF's defense to be very frustrated. Charlie Strong and his FR/SO secondary is not good enough to stop an offense that is unstoppable.
Can OU stop UF? The history of this season suggests they can't, and, along with everyone else in the world, I don't really think they do. UF WILL move the ball. But if OU plays a defense similiar to the one they played against Texas Tech (bend but don't break, and don't surrender the big play), then Tebow may very well try to start pressing. When under pressure, he doesn't know what to do. He gets happy feet, and more often than not, he simply scrambles. Stuck in the pocket for an extended length of time, forced to read the secondary, he sucks. It's why he doesn't stand a chance as an NFL QB barring major, major improvement. I think OU would be wise to avoid blitzing too much. Guard the slant route and the deep wheel or go route, and UF's passing attack disappears. Hopefully OU spends the next month watching tape and realizes this.
So thus far, I think OU has both the offensive and defensive advantage.
As far special teams, UF has a clear advantage. OU's special teams flat-out suck. I'd argue that it cost them the Texas game. And UF excels at special teams. The Kentucky game was over halfway through the 1st quarter because of it, and that was without Brandon James even touching the ball. In a game of this magnitude, this is very important, and could very well be the difference in the game. With that said, special teams is easier to fix in a month's time than are offensive or defensive deficiences, so this gap may be reduced by January 8th. I'm not really counting on it though.
As for coaching...UF has the advantage here as well. Not necessarily in terms of schemes, strategies, or motivation, as I don't think OU puts out a team as good as they've had for so many years without great coaching, but something's different, and I think most of us recognize it. OU has a nasty recent history of underperforming in their bowl games, while Meyer was just there, victorious, two years ago. In the big game, UF under Meyer seems to show up slightly better than OU under Stoops...at least so far.
So...way too much text later, I've come to this:
Offense: Advantage OU
Defense: Nothing significant (although OU has seen more potent offenses, and thus could have some advantage)
Special Teams: Advantage UF
Coaching: Advantage UF
All things considered, including my biases, I think this game should be a pick'em. I think the only reason it isn't is because ESPN absolutely loves UF, Tim Tebow, Urban Meyer, and because the last two national championships have been SEC ass-kickings. Even in a game with this much money on the line, with this much time for analysis, and under this much magnitude, the line has been inflated.
I like OU in this game. Defense wins championships, but neither team has one. So I'm going with the better offense. It won't be a big play by any means, as I think with a game this close, with this many points likely to be scored, a large bet on either side is going to depend on a lot on luck, weird bounces, and just how well some 18-22 year old kids perform after a month off. It's truly a gamble, and there are a lot of better games out there to bet on, imo.
Anyway, those are just my thoughts, from someone that has watched almost every single game that has been put on the air this year. Good luck this bowl season, and may God have pity on your soul if you bothered to read all this.
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