MY FORMULA FOR KICKING YOUR BOOKMAKER'S ASS!!!

THE SHRINK · Aug 29, 2004

With the NFL and College Football about to start in full swing, I thought I'd throw something out for discussion that has helped me do better ATS in recent years...

Although I focus more on College Sports, mainly Football and Hoops, I also use this method when betting on Professional Sports as well.

I force myself to bet the UNDERDOGS much more so than the favorites and by at least a ratio of 2:1...

I also do the same thing with TOTALS, taking UNDERS more than overs and at least by a ratio of 2:1 ...

Although I don't claim this formula to be etched in stone, it is a rough guideline that has worked well for me because of several factors...

The obvious one, as everyone knows, is the fact that JOE Q PUBLIC bets Favorites and Overs much more so than Underdogs and Unders.

Therefore, if one does their due diligence and looks for VALUE (which for beating the bookie, is an essential ingredient), it is much more likely to be found in DOGS & UNDERS as a general rule...

Another component that can't be ignored is the back door TD. Knowing that most NFL teams will go into a PREVENT DEFENSE at the end of a ballgame is an advantage to the bettor who plays DOGS.

I throw this out for discussion simply because I do keep accurate records on my wins and losses, and over the past four years, the above mentioned system, though far from perfect, has made me a much better gambler...

Best of Luck,

THE SHRINK

RobFunk · Aug 29, 2004

1. bet sox
2. fade yanks

4.5 back!

shrink you are a genious

CoachLT · Aug 29, 2004

Ken, I agree 100% I play dogs at about 75% over favorites. If and when I play a pro game, I will NEVER wager over 20% of what I have on a college game. The main time that I play big college favorites is late in the year when you can spot teams tht have packed it in and you go against these teams. Great topic of discussion. I LOVE to go against teams that have had a Brutal loss the previous week! LT

THE SHRINK · Aug 29, 2004

Rob,

That's not exactly what I had in mind, lol... But you did remind me to add another psychological component that used to adversely affect my judgment when handicapping ball games. When a Football team is favored by 3 points for example, it is engraved in many people's minds, including my own, that they are the Favorites, they are SUPPOSED to Win, so why can't they win by 4? And, the sad truth is that when I did bet the DOG as an amateur, and the DOG naturally got clobbered, it was my nature to second guess myself, by thinking what an IDIOT I am! Everyone in the world but me could see that the FAVORITE was supposed to WIN, which they did, so what a dumb shit I was to pick such a crappie ass team that just got beat by 30 points. OH THE PAIN....

Oh, the irony of it all...

THE SHRINK

RobFunk · Aug 29, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>so what a dumb shit I was <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>I assure you, any 'stupidity' you feel mine is much greater. it isnt hard to tell that. man im siked for your college picks i know this much.

IDENTITY · Aug 29, 2004

my theory over the past three (3) years, is to FADE KENNY...it works more often than not

BANANAS BUDDIES BANANAS

Dante · Aug 29, 2004

my theory, although I do not have records of it but can say in all honesty works alot of the time is look to see who simply says the word "LOCK" and Pound the other side

THE SHRINK · Aug 29, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by GATOR COACH LT:

Ken, I agree 100% I play dogs at about 75% over favorites. If and when I play a pro game, I will NEVER wager over 20% of what I have on a college game. The main time that I play big college favorites is late in the year when you can spot teams tht have packed it in and you go against these teams. Great topic of discussion. I LOVE to go against teams that have had a Brutal loss the previous week! LT

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

GATOR COACH,

What a "PEARL" of a post...

Any others out there?

THE SHRINK

RobFunk · Aug 29, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>my theory over the past three (3) years, is to FADE KENNY...it works more often than not <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>That was'nt true last year, that's what you guys kept saying. But he hit more often that not in CFB he had like 2 saturdays straight he was cold. . other than that, when he put up the hatred turned to congrats this and thanks ken that even though they didnt take. . .were talking CFB here, you know who has a lot of strong stuff there and guess what he talks to him on occasion what can I say I know that is round about but fading shrink on CFB that is playing with fire IMO

TheGeneral+ · Aug 29, 2004

I am worse. I do a higher ratio of dogs and unders in foots. This is a new tactic by me. I was quite worse with favs and overs a couple years back. I have been reading a website for a couple years now that has taught me a few things.

Thanks SHRINK

daringly · Aug 29, 2004

You have to evaluate each game separately, without looking for "2/3 dogs".

Last year, there was a substantial shift in the lines, relative to the strength of teams. Favorites that would be -3 were opening at -2 or -1.5. There were a LOT of these last year, and a lot of value in the right small favs.

I went 36-23 last year in the NFL. A majority of my plays were in one of 2 subsets: small favorites (-3 or less) where my model suggested it should be at least -6, and big dogs (+7.5 or more) that should be small dogs (+3 or less).

If line creation is similar to how it was last year, keep a sharp eye on small favs.

RPM · Aug 29, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by THE SHRINK:
With the NFL and College Football about to start in full swing, I thought I'd throw something out for discussion that has helped me do better ATS in recent years...

Although I focus more on College Sports, mainly Football and Hoops, I also use this method when betting on Professional Sports as well.

I force myself to bet the UNDERDOGS much more so than the favorites and by at least a ratio of 2:1...

I also do the same thing with TOTALS, taking UNDERS more than overs and at least by a ratio of 2:1 ...

Although I don't claim this formula to be etched in stone, it is a rough guideline that has worked well for me because of several factors...

The obvious one, as everyone knows, is the fact that JOE Q PUBLIC bets Favorites and Overs much more so than Underdogs and Unders.

Therefore, if one does their due diligence and looks for VALUE (which for beating the bookie, is an essential ingredient), it is much more likely to be found in DOGS & UNDERS as a general rule...

Another component that can't be ignored is the back door TD. Knowing that most NFL teams will go into a PREVENT DEFENSE at the end of a ballgame is an advantage to the bettor who plays DOGS.

I throw this out for discussion simply because I do keep accurate records on my wins and losses, and over the past four years, the above mentioned system, though far from perfect, has made me a much better gambler...

Best of Luck,

THE SHRINK <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

shrink,

going by the logic in your post that i highlighted, doesnt that also mean that playing OVERS would be better than unders?

wantitall4moi · Aug 29, 2004

Since you want to bwet the dogs so much, bet them on the ML, or at least split them up, if you generally bet 5000 a game bet the ML for 2500 and the spread for 2500. More often than not you will hit both, but in the 16% chance or so the dog just "covers" and doesn't win, at least you break close to even. if the fave wins and covers, then you lose nothing more than any normal bet, and if you are the type to lay 5500 to win 5000, then you actually lose less since you aren't laying that extra on the ML.

This strategy is for the NFL BTW, not colege...

Horseshoe · Aug 29, 2004

Shrink, I thought you were gonna just ride your mentor's Machine's tail..you know..using the "Buddy" system?

Always dog and under by at least a 2 or 3 to 1 ratio in football.

Teams on 0 and 3 at the half in college(pros a whole 'nother monster), are generally overmatched and stay stuck there, if not a letdown/lookahead shut-it-down late, low scoring(still in game), lucky bounce lead, ref calls(see SEC refs hose VT last night w/phantom), or bad weather affected play(trailing team alibis/motivators)..especially in rivalry games with a chance to steamroll a foe.

If the BMs are fair with the halftime number, watch for the Baxters of the world to make the DB screen jump close to 2nd half kickoff. Being on your toes to jump in after seeing what works and what doesn't in the 1st half, is often like studying with a copy of the test in hand.

You've gotta just love the movie & theme that is "Groundhog Day"..same thing all over again.

I don't know about Bananas, but some Bagel and Donut used to work well.

GL to all this fall!

ppeter · Aug 30, 2004

I actually have done quite well over the years consistantly betting around 75% favorites and around 75% overs. I guess I am just good at picking the right ones. Of course I would be a fool to BET THE BOARD using that ratio, as well as yours, LOL.

I think there is no hard and fast formula--some are better at picking overs and favs and some are better at picking dogs and unders.

If you focus you attention on picking the winning favs and overs you will get an additional benefit--if you play early in the week you are almost always going to be on the right side fo a line move and therefore set up middling opportunities.

THE SHRINK · Aug 30, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by ppeter

--if you play early in the week you are almost always going to be on the right side fo a line move and therefore set up middling opportunities. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Care to elaborate?

TheGeneral+ · Aug 30, 2004

SHRINK, do you still feel middling will lead you to the poorhouse?

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Aug 30, 2004

I thought your success or most important factor was what BW was doing. Let us say you find your dog, and under. You bet it, ooopps, BW is steaming the fave and over. You now have the worst numbers, and are against BW. I sure hope this is not a Guaranteed Lock. We need another Roberto flattering article. But can we include the hours per day you spend handicapping, looking for these dog and under possibilities? While he chronicled your entire day, or every hour of the day, not one minute was spent capping? It seems to me, the man, myth and legend does not have to cap, just pick up the BW hotline...Best Wishes...OF

ppeter · Aug 30, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by THE SHRINK:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by ppeter
_
--if you play early in the week you are almost always going to be on the right side fo a line move and therefore set up middling opportunities._ <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Care to elaborate? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

As someone mentioned above, the majority of the public will bet favs and overs. The public is not stupid, nor are most newsletter writers and touts. Their primary disadvantage is they bet late and have a heard mentality. If you act early enough (say Sunday night or Monday morning) and correctly predict which games will be the most popular plays of the week, you can get a number often 4 or more points before it moves and set up middling opportunites.

quantumleap · Aug 30, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by daringly:
You have to evaluate each game separately, without looking for "2/3 dogs".

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Good point daringly. You don't want to bet a game just because dogs or unders may have a slight advantage. I've thought about taking a closer look at the dogs but don't bet them just for this reason.