My "Favorites" Totals Play

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Each week I will post one totals play involving a favorite who basically either should win, or is in a must situation. It is early, but this week total's play involves a team that is already in a "must win" situation. My play:

TCU -650 (MGM/Mirage) at Minnesota.

1. TCU is the better team going in.
2. TCU is on the road, and away teams tend to stick to business better than home teams.
3. TCU is in a conference that does not have a CC game. They know full well how much this can cost them. A loss to a "Middle-of-the-road" Big 10 team would really hurt their chances of getting in even if they win the Big 12. Another loss would eliminate them. That is a lot of pressure to play under.

For simplicity, we will wager to win 100 every game, so for this wager, it is 650 to win 100. Follow along and see how I do during the season, basically I can only afford one loss to show a profit.
 

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Always makes me nervous to play big ML favs on the road. Even if they are much better on paper. Good luck!!!
 

your worst nightmare
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Each week I will post one totals play involving a favorite who basically either should win, or is in a must situation. It is early, but this week total's play involves a team that is already in a "must win" situation. My play:

TCU -650 (MGM/Mirage) at Minnesota.

I believe your subject header as well as thread starting comment should read is you're posting your favorite MONEYLINE play.

What you've posted isn't a "totals" play reflecting the total amount of points scored in the game.

I think your ML play of TCU -650 CASHES without a problem! :money:You can take it to the BANK! :toast:

If I was to pick my favorite available MONEYLINE play from this weekend's opening schedule its:

UCLA -1100

_bruin_zpsljey8skr.gif


No way in hell do the Bruins lose to the Cavaliers in the Rose Bowl.

This MONEYLINE play is a MORTAL LOCK! $*)



 

Nirvana Shill
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I wouldn't pay much attention to this fool with these kinds of threads.. Can you imagine anyone else fucking up the title and how he would come into that thread and rip that poster a new one.. He embarrassed himself LY with this nonsense as his "Junk "alias.. hopefully not to many followed him
 

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I wouldn't pay much attention to this fool with these kinds of threads.. Can you imagine anyone else fucking up the title and how he would come into that thread and rip that poster a new one.. He embarrassed himself LY with this nonsense as his "Junk "alias.. hopefully not to many followed him
Red, before I completely kick your worthless tail all over here, let's see your plays for this week. That means now boy. Post it now or forever keep your mouth shut. If you try to post after the game like you love to do, you will be the sorriest arsehole in the world after I am done with you. Got it boy? Your face = hamburger meat in here. You WILL pay a very heavy price in here. Lying sissies like you always do.
 

Nirvana Shill
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probably should let this thread die Junk , like all your other failures...
 

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probably should let this thread die Junk , like all your other failures...
The only thing that is going to die in here is you and your stupid predictions, you dumb s**t. I am 1-0. What is your record, you lying fool? Your arse in mine, any time I want it. Remember that boy. You can only run so far.
 
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Not that I am taking the OP side, but many pro's draw their line around the -700 or -800 mark when they know it's a for sure winner. And sometimes they will use another sure -400-800 to parlay it down a little. I have seen a few very profitable high rollers do this. That line he posted is not as ridiculous as some of you want to lead it on to be.

He could have easily risked 10,000 on that play and had a nice little pay day last night. He even provides a disclaimer for a last sentence telling you exactly what some want to be smartasses about.
 

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Not that I am taking the OP side, but many pro's draw their line around the -700 or -800 mark when they know it's a for sure winner. And sometimes they will use another sure -400-800 to parlay it down a little. I have seen a few very profitable high rollers do this. That line he posted is not as ridiculous as some of you want to lead it on to be.

He could have easily risked 10,000 on that play and had a nice little pay day last night. He even provides a disclaimer for a last sentence telling you exactly what some want to be smartasses about.
First, I NEVER tell the amount of a wager that I place. Suffice it to say that it is more than some phonies like Red Eye wager in a year. He also knows what happens to him if I decide to find him, but why waste time on dog poop? Red Eye is a coward and a liar. I have called him out many times only to be ignored. I said that he is NOT a graduate of Oregon and he did not even dispute that.

You seem to have a good understanding of the idea behind such wagers. Most people in here do not, because most people in here (notice I said MOST) wager very small amounts, if they wager at all. People are afraid to lose money. If you wager like that, you will lose money. In here, you get your typical Bull S**t wagers that go like this: "I like team B Huge". First, what is the line and where did you get it? When did you get it? People in here will line shop to claim that they got a better line than they actually did. These are the phonies inhere, who either wager 5-10 bucks a game, or do not wager at all. This is many of the people in here. They simply do not have the money to become winners. You have to be willing to play big and willing to take an occasional loss to make good money and the truth is that 90% or more of the guys who claim to wager in here simply cannot afford to lose. That is why most people in here are losers. They are wagering not to lose instead of wagering to win.

If you have some money that you can AFFORD to lose (in case things go wrong) and want to try a system like this, go ahead. My rules are pretty simple. I normally play on away teams because away teams tend to take games more seriously than home teams do. You also get a better line on the away teams. Example: Michigan State is -17 on the road against Western Michigan and -700 on the ML. Kentucky is -17 at home against Lafayette, but the best ML you can find is -800. People believe that there is a better chance for a home team to pull off a major upset than an away team. That is wrong. Check the stats and you will find out that away favorites of 10 or more lose less often than home favorites of 10 or more do.

Next, you must play on a team that should win the game, even if they do not bring their "A" game or breaks go against them. TCU was a perfect example last night. They did not play well at all, but still had enough to win.

Finally, the less teams play each other, the less they know about each other. This is an advantage to the better team. Try to play away favorites in non-con games, if possible.

Good luck if you try this system. I normally play 10 games a season. That leaves 4 weeks that I can pass if I opt to.
 

Nirvana Shill
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Not that I am taking the OP side, but many pro's draw their line around the -700 or -800 mark when they know it's a for sure winner. And sometimes they will use another sure -400-800 to parlay it down a little. I have seen a few very profitable high rollers do this. That line he posted is not as ridiculous as some of you want to lead it on to be.

He could have easily risked 10,000 on that play and had a nice little pay day last night. He even provides a disclaimer for a last sentence telling you exactly what some want to be smartasses about.

before you buy in to anything this fool posts, go thru a few of his threads....and his Junk threads. You'll soon see what we all see
 

Biz

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Enough with the bullshit cluttering up the thread. Either say something positive or keep quiet. That's what the Rubber Room is for, take that nonsense over there.
 

Nirvana Shill
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Enough with the bullshit cluttering up the thread. Either say something positive or keep quiet. That's what the Rubber Room is for, take that nonsense over there.

this guy has been banned before.. He's pushed good posters to leave this site...He has it coming... maybe you don't know the history.. not going to keep quiet concerning this pos
 
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before you buy in to anything this fool posts, go thru a few of his threads....and his Junk threads. You'll soon see what we all see

You may very well be right, I'm only talking about this thread and this guys strategy. And OP, I know you didn't mention your wager and that is no one's business.

To wager this way you have to swing hard and the -800 and aboves just aren't worth it, but less than that very successful sports investors do it.

Small wager people think this is stupid, yet this guy could easily haul off a 15-1,25-2 type record doing this, you do math, he is still winning money in the end.

Don't ever let a line chase you off a wager, if you believe it's a winner wtf does it matter what the cost is? (within considerations under -800)
 

Nirvana Shill
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You may very well be right, I'm only talking about this thread and this guys strategy. And OP, I know you didn't mention your wager and that is no one's business.

To wager this way you have to swing hard and the -800 and aboves just aren't worth it, but less than that very successful sports investors do it.

Small wager people think this is stupid, yet this guy could easily haul off a 15-1,25-2 type record doing this, you do math, he is still winning money in the end.

Don't ever let a line chase you off a wager, if you believe it's a winner wtf does it matter what the cost is? (within considerations under -800)

He got himself exposed LY with this along with everything else that he posted
 

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