My favorite NFL "system" is providing a play this MONDAY NIGHT

[Fishhead]

Post #65,000 here at TheRX

MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3.5/+3


1. Since 1980, teams with a 1-3 record off a straight-up loss are 85-56 ATS.

2. If the above team is facing a team off a straight win in the above #1 scenario, they are 49-19 ATS.

3. If the team we are backing qualifies for the above #1 and #2 scenarios and they are favored or a dog of less than seven points, they are 45-12 ATS.


MINNESOTA fits #3 this MONDAY NIGHT............a situation where a team in this situation has covered 45 of the past 57 times.

Not a system player by any means, but I like the theory behind this one and the records prove it to have tremendous merit. The theory is a team with a 1-3 record is facing a very important game.......an almost "do or die" situation for their season, as they do not want to fall to 1-4. Also, it is well documented that many NFL coaches breakdown the season into four sets of four games........thus, this is game #1 of the 2nd set of four, and as mentioned, are facing a situation where they do not want to fall to 1-4.

The other factors involved in this "theory/system"(team off a loss, opponent off a win, low spread).......provides the intangible value needed to produce the results that it has accomplished.

I believe I posted a few games that fit this system a couple years ago in this forum(not sure if it won or lost).

AS ALWAYS, BET WITH YOUR HEAD, NOT OVER IT. iN FACT, DONT WAGER THIS GAME IF YOU DONT LIKE IT. IF YOU HAVE A SMALL LEAN ON THE VIKINGS ALREADY, PERHAPS THIS WILL PUT YOU OVER THE TOP TO WAGER IT.

To be honest, this appears to be a very scary game............I personally am just going to close my eyes and pull the trigger and play the above percentages that have played out over the years.

Hopefully, we will have a play next week on a 1-3 team that fits this bill.


Take care all,

-FH-

 

[Iceman]

Congrat on post 65,000. Post for post you have written the most quality stuff on here.


They have an awesome show on satellite radio hosted by the sportsmemo team (knowledgeable touts) and Teddy Covers (who I have met here in Vegas and he is a great guy) said today on the radio that any 1-3 team in the NFL with huge playoff aspirations before the season cover at a high rat in game 5 if they are off to a 1-3 start. This is icing on the cake, thanks again!!

*On a side note I found Minnestoa at 50-1 to win the SB at the Plaza yesterday and made a nice size bet on it.

 

[Fishhead]

Congrat on post 65,000. Post for post you have written the most quality stuff on here.


They have an awesome show on satellite radio hosted by the sportsmemo team (knowledgeable touts) and Teddy Covers (who I have met here in Vegas and he is a great guy) said today on the radio that any 1-3 team in the NFL with huge playoff aspirations before the season cover at a high rat in game 5 if they are off to a 1-3 start. This is icing on the cake, thanks again!!

*On a side note I found Minnestoa at 50-1 to win the SB at the Plaza yesterday and made a nice size bet on it.

Hope things are going well ICE.........

Do you have any futures going on the Bills or Jets?

I was thinking before last week that one could still have found some decent value on the J-E-T-S.

 

[royboy_3831]

thanks fish, i'll tail

 

[Fishhead]

Let me be honest here and perfectly clear.........of all the times I have played this system over the last few years, this game coming up this Monday has me feeling the least confident.

Having said that, that is probably a "hidden" positive. Soumi

 

[barman]

Hope things are going well ICE.........

Do you have any futures going on the Bills or Jets?

I was thinking before last week that one could still have found some decent value on the J-E-T-S.

Put a big $7 on JETS to win Super Bowl following Week 2 and got 48x1

Currently at 50x1

 

[Iceman]

Hope things are going well ICE.........

Do you have any futures going on the Bills or Jets?

I was thinking before last week that one could still have found some decent value on the J-E-T-S.

I put together some stats and went out looking for the first time yesterday for a SB team. I had zero intentions to bet the Vikes but it just stuck out like a sore thumb so I had to. The NFC north sucks and the Vikes have played a brutal schedule up till now (@ Titans and Pack and home against Colts and Panthers). Plus they had huge hype before the season and though 1-3 they havent looked bad at all.

My purpose was too find a AFC team as I think that conference is up for grabs. Bills are getting hammerd, I may have arrived late to that party, plus I am not as big on them as most are. I do like the Jets, maybe I will look tomorrow. I would like to have 2-3 teams to root for throughout the year.

My numbers I use religiously have like the Saints in this one. I bet the opener at -3. I was a little surprised this line didnt open at closer to -4 or so. I will be coming over the top with Vikes +3.5 on Monday.

 

[Fishhead]

FWIW, I firmly believe the JETS and the VIKINGS could very well play in their conferences respective title game.

Good luck to all that have these two in futures........KERMIT?

 

[Fishhead]

By the way, pretty sure this "system" has produced a winning season in each of the past 5 seasons............don't have records on this, just going on memory(which isn't good).

 

[RupertPupkin]

last week, supposedly the Vikes were the play ...I even went one better,(after I realized my straight bet was shot to shit...i played them in a two team teaser with carolina (winner) but they pissed it away-Hopes, dreams, idealisms destroyed in 3 hours, Similar to when Ihad them against the Colts, I had +1.5, and was up 15-0 going into the 4th, haad everything but thepayout .....but didnt get it, mainly cause they couldn't get one first down when it counted, not a one. I can't trust this team, Adrian Peterson is great, yea sure. But you need to have a lead for him to shine, and when you are down 2-3 going into the 3rd what good will he be?? not much? because now its passing time and AP dont catch worth a lick. The Vikings recievers aren't studs either. They won't step up when its needed. THey won't take control. The take over player is Peterson and if he don't do it off the get go, it gets gone worst for his team.

For the Vikes to win,to shine, Peterson needs(MUST) dominate early he has to dictate the game. |So far he hAsn't. He has been good,but not amazing.

 

[$tinky]

last week, supposedly the Vikes were the play ...I even went one better,(after I realized my straight bet was shot to shit...i played them in a two team teaser with carolina (winner) but they pissed it away-Hopes, dreams, idealisms destroyed in 3 hours, Similar to when Ihad them against the Colts, I had +1.5, and was up 15-0 going into the 4th, haad everything but thepayout .....but didnt get it, mainly cause they couldn't get one first down when it counted, not a one. I can't trust this team, Adrian Peterson is great, yea sure. But you need to have a lead for him to shine, and when you are down 2-3 going into the 3rd what good will he be?? not much? because now its passing time and AP dont catch worth a lick. The Vikings recievers aren't studs either. They won't step up when its needed. THey won't take control. The take over player is Peterson and if he don't do it off the get go, it gets gone worst for his team.

For the Vikes to win,to shine, Peterson needs(MUST) dominate early he has to dictate the game. |So far he hAsn't. He has been good,but not amazing.

Question, How did you bet a teaser AFTER you realized your straight bet was "shot to shit"? Did you bet the teaser in mid game? Did you realize the bet was shot to shit before it started? Did you fuck up and tell the story wrong?

If you have an out that takes teasers at half time, you should share the love.

 

[bellyputter]

The biggest fluke was that the NO-SF game didn't go over.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

Let me be honest here and perfectly clear.........of all the times I have played this system over the last few years, this game coming up this Monday has me feeling the least confident.

Having said that, that is probably a "hidden" positive. Soumi

it should . cause its a loser..

 

[Fishhead]

it should . cause its a loser..

Probably, but I have no choice but to play this considering how well this trend as treated me over the past few years.

I did get +3.5, so that's a positive.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

i hope you win .

i just have a real hard time backing a team that has qb issues.

tenn was my play of the week last week against those same vikes.

 

[RupertPupkin]

Question, How did you bet a teaser AFTER you realized your straight bet was "shot to shit"? Did you bet the teaser in mid game? Did you realize the bet was shot to shit before it started? Did you fuck up and tell the story wrong?

If you have an out that takes teasers at half time, you should share the love.

I need to start proofreading my posts I guess, It's amazing the confusion you can create by leaving out one word.

I also had them in a teaser is what the line should have read Professor Plum, sorry to confuse your cranium. And BTW - a book that takes teasers at HT is not something I'd share with a jack ass like you.

coo coo coo
:bigfinger

 

[PatrickMcIrish]

BUMP........... for those who like money.



On it Fisher, thanks for sharing. Like Ice said nobody has contributed more to this site than the author. Nobody. Here's to another 65,000 posts.

 

[FairWarning]

Thanks for the play Fish. Anyone who likes money should be on this play. And congrats on 65,000 posts.

 

[ensign_lee]

*bump* for fish's 65,000th post, and since we're less than 24 hours from kickoff.

 

[viking611]

MR.PHISH...SIRRRRR.

Congratulations on 65k. What a great pick to go with for the celebration.

Went to Nashville last week and was disappointed live, & in person in my beloved Vikings. They have certainly not played to expections this season but could very easily be 3-1 or 4-0 right now which is hard to believe by the way they've been playing. Just as disappointed as I am with another team that currently 3-3,(0-2).
They also just watched GB lose and are right behind Bears if they win making them a great Futures pick right now if good #s can be found for division, conference, and superbowl. Not sure what they are, haven't looked.


Good look on your play. Wish I could load up on it!