My 2014-15 Bowl Thread

[russ1945]

Tis the season, for Bowls that is. Best I can tell 13 bowls are already locked in out of the 39 bowl games to be played. Two bowl games are on Christmas eve, the Bahamas Bowl in Nassau, and the Hawaii Bowl in Honolulu. That is four very lucky teams in my book. Weather will probably be a factor in a few of the bowls. 8 bowl games will be played in Florida and 2 will be played in Arizona so they should get decent weather.

My bowl spreadsheet is now complete and I will be focusing on the match ups as soon as the are finalized.

Espn is showing 35 games, ABC 3 games and CBS 1 game.

There are 2 bowls I am already looking forward to. The Peach Bowl features Ole Miss vs TCU and the Cotton Bowl features Michigan St and Baylor.
Should be an interesting bowl season. BOL

 

[russ1945]

Well the bowls are all filled in now so time to get to work. First bowl 12-20-14.

 

[BernieVegas]

Tis the season, for Bowls that is.

There are 2 bowls I am already looking forward to. The Peach Bowl features Ole Miss vs TCU and the Cotton Bowl features Michigan St and Baylor.
Should be an interesting bowl season. BOL

Russ

BernieV is also looking forward to the Michigan State/BAYLOR matchup. It should be one exciting game. Really enjoy the information you provide. Very worthwhile. Thanks for your time and effort

Yours in Winners
BernieV

 

[russ1945]

Russ

BernieV is also looking forward to the Michigan State/BAYLOR matchup. It should be one exciting game. Really enjoy the information you provide. Very worthwhile. Thanks for your time and effort

Yours in Winners
BernieV

Glad you like it and I hope it helps. BOL

 

[phantom888]

Goodluck! Lets Go Bowling!

 

[russ1945]

My favorite time of the year.

 

[russ1945]

Sorry guys been working on my bowl site. I have looked at every match up pretty closely. Should be a really interesting bowl season.

 

[bobbyjones2]

thanks for posting....

 

[russ1945]

Sorry guys been swamped trying to get my bowl site update and working for the new bowl system. I will post on the Site Promotions Forum when it is completely ready to go. In the meantime I am still going to keep this thread going and also will be glad to answer any questions anyone might have regarding the bowls. BOL

 

[russ1945]

Interim bowl HC's:

Wisconsin - Barry Alavarez
Colorado St - David Baldwin - OC
Florida - D.J. Durkin - DC
Nebraska - Barney Cotton - Asst
Houston - David Gibbs - DC

 

[russ1945]

Teams who will be playing a bowl game in their home state:

UL Lafayette (New Orleans)
S. Alabama (Montgomery)
S.D. State (San Diego)
U.C.F. (St Petersburgh)
U.S.C. (San Diego)
Texas (Houston)
Stanford (Santa Clara)
Arizona (Glendale)
Baylor (Arlington)
Houston (Ft Worth)

 

[russ1945]

Injuries/suspensions that could affect bowl games:

Clemson – QB Deshaun Watson – expected to miss Oklahoma game
Florida – lost 8 players during the year
Iowa - lost 7 players during the year
La Tech – has 6 players on suspension and expected to miss Illinois game
Maryland – lost 12 players during the season and had two WR’s who are probably against Stanford
Nebraska – lost 8 players during the season, 4 players questionable against USC, and 3 expected to miss the USC game.
Notre Dame – has 2 safeties listed as questionable and one as doubtful again LSU
Okla State – Tyreek Hill has legal problems and is doubtful against Washington
Pitt – lost 7 players during the regular season
Stanford – lost 6 players during the regular season and leading receiver Ty Montgomery is questionable vs Maryland
Tennessee – lost 7 players during the regular season – have 2 questionable and one probably against Iowa
Texas – WR Jaxon Shipley is questionable against Arkansas
Utah – lost 9 players during the regular season
Utah St – lost 9 players during the regular season
Virginia Tech – lost 11 players during the regular season and have 2 questionable against Cinn
W. Michigan – lost 4 LB’s during the regular season

 

[BigdaddyQH]

In many of these games, the only thing that matters is who wants the game the most. Duke is a perfect example. Duke had the ACC Coastal Championship wrapped up. All they had to do was win two games out of three at the end of the season to win their Division and a trip to the Orange Bowl. All of those games were at home. Well they lost two games, and are now stuck in El Paso instead of Miami. Do you think that they may not really care about this game, ala USC a couple of years ago?

 

[GoSooners]

Tyreek Hill was a week late in hitting his girlfriend. I wish he had done it between OU's first and second punt...

 

[russ1945]

Tyreek Hill was a week late in hitting his girlfriend. I wish he had done it between OU's first and second punt...

lol

 

[russ1945]

I wanted to mention this team separately from my post #12. During the season Ohio St lost 11 players including QB's Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett. Here they are in the final four with their #3 QB and just handing Wisconsin as thorough ass kicking. Urban Meyer is for real that is for sure.

 

[BernieVegas]

I wanted to mention this team separately from my post #12. During the season Ohio St lost 11 players including QB's Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett. Here they are in the final four with their #3 QB and just handing Wisconsin as thorough ass kicking. Urban Meyer is for real that is for sure.

Urban Meyer is one of the best coaches in the land but #IAlreadyKnewThat long long ago

He is a great recruiter


He is great at preparing his teams for games/opponents


He is a great in game coach


He is also a players coach

All of the above...thus he wins and wins wherever he'll be


Yours in Winners
BernieV

*****by the way, Ohio State will likely lose to Alabama but Meyer will not be out coached not even by Saban

 

[russ1945]

I have often referred to bowl games as a different kind of animal. One plus going into bowls is that you have an entire season of stats to work with. Motivation is key and in some instances some teams have to rely on an interim HC because the one who got them to the bowl has departed to another school.

I found a source (collegefootbalpoll.com) and they have some stats that show that since 1993 favorites are 340 223 straight up (.611) and that favorites are 307 -266 ATS (.536).
I went back on my own over the past 3 bowl seasons and using opening lines I came up with the following. You might ask why opening lines and that would because in doing research lines vary and you have to stick with a reliable source. Collegefootballpoll.com uses Doc’s Sports Service.

In 2011 I found the following:
17 favorites won ATS
15 dogs won ATS (13 won outright)
2 games ended in ties

In 2012 I found the following:
22 favorites won ATS
12 dogs won ATS (6 won outright)
1 game ended in a tie

In 2013 I found the following;
16 favorites won ATS
18 dogs won ATS (13 won outright)
1 game ended in a tie

Again lines vary and winning or losing can depend on when you place your wager.

I am convinced that you have to come up with an overall theory when analyzing bowl games. If CFP is right averages tend toward an ATS winning % on bowl games to be at 53.6%. If you omit the NCG as a bowl then this year there are 38 bowl games and multiplied by .536 = 20.37. So rounded out the numbers indicate that 20 favorites may win ATS and 18 dogs may win ATS. At least that provides a guideline and you have to recognize that shit happens (a very scientific term in my book lol). I still think the NC Game needs to be analyzed as a matchup and not be part of the overall

In other words if you put bowl games into perspective there is a trend that applies. Another scientific term is that trends are made to be broken lol. But seriously I do think when you analyze bowls you have to look at the over picture in addition to simply assessing each individual match up. We shall see what we shall see. My bowl site is almost ready, I will let you know when it is. BOL

 

[russ1945]

Well my website is up and running with more to come. You can find it in the Site Promotions Forum and my name mentioned along with the site.

 

[russ1945]

Beware of the bowl dog. Here are some pretty impressive performances by bowl teams who were dogs in the past 3 years.

2011

Marshall beat FIU 20-10 (FIU was -5)
S. Carolina beat Nebraska 30-13 (SC was -1)
SMU beat Pitt 28-6 (Pitt was -7)
N. Ill beat Arkansas St 38-20 (Ark St was -1)

2012

SMU beat Fresno St 43-10 (Fr St was -11.5)
Ohio beat LA Monroe 45-15 (LA Monroe was -6)
Syracuse beat W. Virginia 38-14 (Syr was -3.5)
N.W. beat Miss St 34-20 ( Miss St was -2)
Louisville beat Florida 33-23 (Fla was -15)

2013

S.D. St beat Buffalo 49-24 (Buff was -3.5)
Oregon St beat Boise St 38-23 (B St was -3)
Texas Tech beat Arizona St 37-23 (Az St was -13)
Oklahoma beat Alabama 45-31 (Ala was -14.5)