My 2 Very Strong Plays for the Conference Championship Game

[Piranha]

Usually when I do my analysis of the up coming games, either it will hit me hard and the play is clear in my mind or I will be second guessing and unsure of it.

Since the playoffs started last weekend, 2 games right away stood out for me..........

CINN and MINN

Then Monday night rolled around for the College Championship game and it was clear for me to play Clemson.

This weekend it was.........

CAR and PITT

Next weekend in the Conference Championship, I really like.........

Denver to win it and Arizona to cover or win.

I usually don't post early until close to game time because a lot of variables sometimes affect my decisions. But when I feel strongly about it than nothing will change my mind.

 

[cashflow50]

gl P

 

[Clemson1]

GL you are a good capper but no respect for my Panthers! No worries we will be glad to be labeled as the absolute worst 16-1 team in NFL history. LOL all the way to Levi in San Fran.

 

[Scott602]

GL you are a good capper but no respect for my Panthers! No worries we will be glad to be labeled as the absolute worst 16-1 team in NFL history. LOL all the way to Levi in San Fran.

Hey Clemson do you know what Carolina's strength of schedule is?

 

[3pointdog]

Hey Clemson do you know what Carolina's strength of schedule is?

32nd easiest of all

 

[PeePee]

Sos in pro football is over rated, not a reliable tool to handicap as in college.
Don't forget these players are tops in college when going to nfl.
Thus there's saying "any given Sunday". With only 1 game left to go SB you would expect everyone play their hardest.

 

[Clemson1]

Yes I'm aware of their 32nd ranked SOS. And I don't discount that fact contributing to their almost perfect record. I know this team inside and out and I can tell you they are the most balanced team in football. Rush, pass, defense and the MVP. After we beat the Cards on Sunday to win the NFC I'm sure there will still be haters. That's understandable but when you go 15-1 in the regular season in the NFL and beat Seattle in the divisional round that's no fluke. Russell Wilson has the speed to avoid the pass rush but Carson Palmer doesn't. Norman will shut down Fitz, Floyd or whoever and Luke will cover the middle. Palmer will get pressured into mistakes and spend most of his time getting up off of the ground. Cam will find a way to move the offense against a stout Cards D and the Panthers will win a close game by 1-6 points. It's not going to be easy either way and the Cards could very well win. But anybody who thinks Carolina is smoke and mirrors because of a weak schedule doesn't really know football. Look up their rushing stats and the 50/50 balance between the rush and pass on offense. Go back and watch game film of Cam's arm strength and accuracy this year and how these journeyman WRs are stepping up in Kelvin's absence. Greg Olsen is only a notch below Gronk. And take a look at our front 7, arguably the best in football especially the LB core. Luke, Davis Sr., Shaq. Josh Norman has shut down everyone this year from Julio to Odell. Good luck on your bet and the Cards could very well bring home the win. But my $$ is on the Panthers at home in the Bank. 3 dimes won yesterday against the Hawks. I may drop that down to just a dime this weekend on the ML -170 but regardless my $$ will be on the Panthers. I have 40 yard line seats so I will be sure to take some good pics of Carson getting up off the turf and Cam doing his antics after a first down and TD. The banter is all in good fun. GL to all!

 

[memphis]

sos is incredibly important

 

[indiana]

Piranha...........BOL with your action this week end...........indy

 

[bobbyjones2]

I can certainly understand the denver play, getting 3 at home with that defense has value.

The Cardinal play sort of vexing. I will say, after the weekends results, cardinals sneaking past a pretty average gb squad, and carolina just lighting up seattle, this number seems very small to me. Carson Palmer looked extremely shook saturday against an inferior defense. Not sure I trust this dude.

Interested in the why of your picks.

respect

 

[fballgenius]

With all the hard hitting and crippling injuries in pro football, I can't put too much emphasis on SOS. You telling me Jaguars are a bunch of fairy pants? Every NFL game is brutal war. Getting back to NFC championship game, QB Palmer's distinct lack of mobility will be paramount in this game.

 

[cashflow50]

I was all over Carolina yesterday..now it's all about the coach. Bruce Arians for me. I'll go with the live dog here.

 

[jasonc69]

For those who believe in conspiracy theories in the NFL then you gotta believe the NFL wants Peyton in the Super Bowl with this probably being his last year.

 

[Daigo23]

sos is incredibly important

Some don't get how important it is and ranking of Defense.

 

[Scott602]

Cardinals game one when they played Green Bay they ran the ball and threw the ball. The second time they played Green Bay they only threw the ball. Plus Okafor didn't play the 2nd game against Green Bay. Jarod Allen broke his foot and that will not go well for the Panthers to some extreme.

 

[manterro]

Some don't get how important it is and ranking of Defense.

It's hard for me to figure out the exact impact of SOS. For instance, let's take roster changes across the league. It’s rare to see a NFL team with the same 11 starters on defense year-to-year because of injuries, retirements, free agent signings or the NFL Draft. In addition, teams may implement scheme changes and new coaches might shake up the roster because the current guys don't fit his system. Throw in some outside factors such as bye weeks, number of games outdoors versus indoors, short weeks, primetime games and weather and the whole scenario becomes confusing. I believe SOS has it's place when handicapping games but I'm not sure when and where.

 

[Daigo23]

It's hard for me to figure out the exact impact of SOS. For instance, let's take roster changes across the league. It’s rare to see a NFL team with the same 11 starters on defense year-to-year because of injuries, retirements, free agent signings or the NFL Draft. In addition, teams may implement scheme changes and new coaches might shake up the roster because the current guys don't fit his system. Throw in some outside factors such as bye weeks, number of games outdoors versus indoors, short weeks, primetime games and weather and the whole scenario becomes confusing. I believe SOS has it's place when handicapping games but I'm not sure when and where.

The SOS is updated weekly. Best tool I use is Sagarin to get a base line and cap from there. I used to bet 6-7 games a day without looking into games and would always go 3-3 or less but sometimes 6-0. It's about finding value in one or two games and bet heavy on it. I find it much more profitable and less stress when playing on house money.

 

[Piranha]

I can certainly understand the denver play, getting 3 at home with that defense has value.

The Cardinal play sort of vexing. I will say, after the weekends results, cardinals sneaking past a pretty average gb squad, and carolina just lighting up seattle, this number seems very small to me. Carson Palmer looked extremely shook saturday against an inferior defense. Not sure I trust this dude.

Interested in the why of your picks.

respect

I'm a strong believer in buying on bad news. Since 2003 in the Championship games if you buy on bad news you would be hitting at over 80%. Teams that does poorly usually comes back and does very well in their next game.

 

[Piranha]

For those who believe in conspiracy theories in the NFL then you gotta believe the NFL wants Peyton in the Super Bowl with this probably being his last year.

Strongly agree.......

 

[Piranha]

I'm a strong believer in buying on bad news. Since 2003 in the Championship games if you buy on bad news you would be hitting at over 80%. Teams that does poorly usually comes back and does very well in their next game.

Why do you think EKG always win. Average bettors always buy on good news. They usually take the stronger teams. Most of the time it's the ugly team that will cover making it scary for the average bettors to put money on the lousy teams.